Category: Workplace Issues

Daily Briefing -196

More Hudson Valley Communities “Named Cluster Zones”

During a telephone press briefing yesterday afternoon Governor Cuomo announced the establishment of  new “micro-cluster” zones in  parts of Rockland, Orange, and Westchester Counties.

• The current Rockland County “yellow zone” will be expanded to include Pearl River, West Haverstraw, Stoney Point, and Suffern.
• An Orange County “yellow zone” will be established, which includes Newburgh, New Windsor, Middletown, and Highland Falls.
• A Westchester County “yellow zone” will be established, encompassing New Rochelle, Ossining, Tarrytown, Yonkers, and Peekskill.

Learn more:

• Here is the Guidance for restrictions within these zones
• Read the press release (includes links to maps of the new clusters) 

COVID and Cluster Update 

On the telephone briefing today Governor Cuomo also provided an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Wednesday, November 18^th.  

Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  (The new cluster data will be added tomorrow) 

• Clusters: 4.0%
• Rockland Red zone: 1.18%
• Westchester yellow-zone: 8.16%
• Statewide: 2.7%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 2.3%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 2276 (437 in ICU) 
• Transmission Rate (R0): 1.23

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes and links to cluster maps)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard
• State transmission rates (R0)

Region’s County Officials Unite to Implore Residents: ‘Don’t Get Casual About COVID”

County Leaders and Health Officials highlight dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases relating
to casual, social gatherings; urge vigilance and safety precautions during holiday season

A week prior to Thanksgiving and the start of the winter holiday season, leaders from Dutchess, Orange, Putnam and Ulster counties gathered virtually today to ask residents to remain vigilant in the coming weeks and curtail small social gatherings. Such parties or “hangouts,” even among friends and family members, have led to a recent increase in local COVID-19 cases, raising the Mid-Hudson region’s positivity rate, affecting the ability of schools and businesses to remain open and further stressing the region’s healthcare resources.

You can watch the video here

IMF Chief: Global Economy Recovering, But May be Losing Momentum

The global economy is recovering from the depths of the coronavirus crisis, but there are signs of slowing momentum in countries with resurging infection rates, the International Monetary Fund said in a new report for G20 major economies.  The report, released ahead of this week’s virtual meetings of finance officials and leaders from the Group of 20 countries, underscored the uneven nature of the global recovery and warned the crisis would likely leave deep, unequal scars.

In a separate blog post, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva hailed what she called significant progress in the development of vaccines to vanquish a virus that has claimed more than a million lives around the globe and resulted in tens of millions of job losses.

Read more at Reuters

OSHA Offers Guidance to Frequently Cited Standards for COVID-19 Inspections

OSHA has issued guidance and an accompanying one-pager to help employers understand which standards are most frequently cited during coronavirus-related inspections.  OSHA based these documents on data from citations issued, many of which were the result of complaints, referrals and fatalities in industries such as hospitals and healthcare, nursing homes and long-term care facilities, and meat/poultry processing plants.

The guidance document provides available resources that address the most frequently cited standards, including Respiratory Protection, Recording and Reporting Occupational Injuries and Illnesses, Personal Protective Equipment and the General Duty Clause.

• Read more at EHS Today
• Watch the Council’s Webinar on this topic presented by Walden Environmental

DHS Extends Form I-9 Requirement Flexibility Until December 31, 2020

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced an extension of the flexibility in complying with requirements related to Form I-9, Employment Eligibility Verification, due to COVID-19.

This temporary guidance was set to expire November 19. Because of ongoing precautions related to COVID-19, DHS has extended this policy until December 31, 2020.  This provision only applies to employers and workplaces that are operating remotely. 

Read the press release

US Chamber Study: Childcare Situation Due to COVID Is Affecting Employers

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, on Nov 19, released a report   “Piecing Together Solutions: Employer Childcare Assistance Now and Looking Ahead,” which examines how employers have supported employees with young children while experiencing employee turnover and the future of their investment in childcare.

In June of this year, 24% of employers were concerned that some of their employees would leave the workforce because of the pandemic, but by October, 32% of employers had lost employees. When asked what factors drove employees’ decisions to leave the workforce, half cited childcare concerns.

• Read more at IndustryWeek
• View the survey results

Covid-19 Vaccines Could Depend on the Strength of Corning’s Vial

The US government has contracted with materials manufacturer Corning to produce an additional 164 million Valor glass vials per year to meet demand for the COVID-19 vaccine. The Valor vial is chemically fortified to be 40 times less likely to break, allowing for faster filling, according to a Corning statement.

The US government has contracted with materials manufacturer Corning to produce an additional 164 million Valor glass vials per year to meet demand for the COVID-19 vaccine. The Valor vial is chemically fortified to be 40 times less likely to break, allowing for faster filling, according to a Corning statement.

Read more at the WSJ (Includes a cool animation)

Even With 737 MAX Clearance, Covid-19 May Cause Overnight Closures In Aerospace Supply Chain

Aerospace suppliers, who sit at the beginning of aviation’s food chain, are looking at a decimation of demand — even more dramatic perhaps than the drop-off facing global carriers. Over the next decade, as many as 4,700 aircraft that had been on the production schedule at the beginning of 2020 will no longer be built. That is the equivalent of 2.5 years’ worth of production vanishing almost overnight.

While this will be painful for the larger airframe and engine manufacturers, the real carnage is expected to take place a step or two down the chain — including midsize and larger parts suppliers and special processing houses. 

Read more at Forbes

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine Shows Robust Immune Response 

The coronavirus vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca is safe and triggers a similar immune response among all adults, according to the preliminary findings of a peer-reviewed phase two trial.

The promising early-stage results were published Thursday in The Lancet, one of the world’s top medical journals.  The study of 560 healthy adults, including 240 over age 70, found the vaccine to be safe and produced a similar immune response among people age over 56 and those ages 18 to 55.

Read more at CNBC

Daily Briefing – 195

COVID and Cluster Update – Orange County Zone Removed from Cluster Watch List

Governor Cuomo held a press briefing yesterday afternoon providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Tuesday, November 17^th.  The Governor announced the Orange County Zone has met the metrics to be removed from the Cluster watch list.  

Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  

• Clusters: 4.73%
• Rockland Red zone: 3.52%
• Westchester yellow-zone: 5.41%
• Orange Orange zone: Met metrics to be removed
• Statewide: 3.43%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 3.102%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 2202 (423 in ICU) 
• Transmission Rate (R0): 1.23

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes and links to cluster maps)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard
• State transmission rates (R0)

Pfizer: COVID-19 Shot 95% Effective, Seeking Clearance Soon

Pfizer said Wednesday that new test results show its coronavirus vaccine is 95% effective, is safe and also protects older people most at risk of dying — the last data needed to seek emergency use of limited shot supplies as the catastrophic outbreak worsens across the globe.

The announcement from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech comes as the team is preparing within days to formally ask U.S. regulators to allow emergency use of the vaccine. Anticipating that, a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel is on standby to publicly debate the data during the second week of December.  The companies also have begun “rolling submissions” for the vaccine with regulators in Europe, the U.K. and Canada and soon will add this new data.

Read more at the AP

Colleges Make Thanksgiving and Post Thanksgiving Plans

Ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday, schools and students are preparing for travel and instruction plans. Some universities, such as the University of South Carolina, Emory University, and Syracuse University are planning to end in-person instruction prior to the break so that students do not have to return to campus between Thanksgiving and the traditional end of the term, which typically falls later in December. In a different approach, Boston University is asking students to refrain from traveling and remain on campus during the Thanksgiving holiday break.

The State University of New York (SUNY) announced a new policy as part of its testing program that requires all on-campus students to have a negative SARS-CoV-2 test within 10 days of leaving campus, which will require the 64 SUNY colleges and universities to test approximately 140,000 students.

Read the press release

Canadian Thanksgiving Bell Weather 

Canada celebrates Thanksgiving the second Monday in October. A surge in COVID-19 incidence following Canadian Thanksgiving is a cautionary reminder for the coming US Thanksgiving and other winter holidays. Canadians were advised to limit celebrations to household contacts only or host remote/virtual events, but the extent to which Canadians adhered to that guidance is not fully known. A month after the holiday, COVID-19 incidence continues to rise in Canada, but the largest increase was observed 2 weeks following the holiday, which is consistent with the epidemiology.

Read more at the Washington Post

Pelosi and Schumer Ask McConnell to Restart Coronavirus Stimulus Talks as Cases Surge

n a letter to McConnell on Tuesday, Schumer, D-N.Y., and Pelosi, D-Calif., asked the Kentucky Republican to “join us at the negotiating table this week so that we can work towards a bipartisan, bicameral COVID-19 relief agreement to crush the virus and save American lives.” As they called for money for schools, small businesses, state and local governments and unemployment insurance, the Democrats wrote that the “pandemic and economic recession will not end without our help.”

Both McConnell and Pelosi have signaled they want to pass legislation this year, before Biden takes office. But neither leader has showed willingness to yield ground, making it unclear what could get through the GOP-controlled Senate and Democratic-held House.

Read more at CNBC

U.S. Retail Sales Lose Speed as Pandemic, Lack of Fiscal Stimulus Weigh

 U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in October and could slow further, restrained by spiraling new COVID-19 infections and declining household income as millions of unemployed Americans lose government financial support.

While other data on Tuesday showed production at factories accelerating last month, output remained well below its pre-pandemic level and the uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak could disrupt production. The public health crisis and frail economy are major challenges confronting President-elect Joe Biden when he takes over from President Donald Trump in January.

Read more at Reuters

FAA Recertifies Boeing 737 Max for Flight

Federal Aviation Administrator Steve Dickson signed an order November 18 that rescinded its earlier March 13, 2019 grounding order. Boeing models 737-8 and 737-9 were grounded worldwide after two of the planes, Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, crashed shortly after takeoff due to a software error. The planes were officially grounded for 20 months.

Despite the rescinded grounding order, the FAA said its actions “do not allow the MAX to return immediately to the skies.” The administration says it must approve new training programs for each U.S. airline operating the plane, individually certify all new planes manufactured since the grounding order was issued for airworthiness and export worthiness, and require airlines with parked 737 MAX planes to perform required maintenance tasks before they can return to the skies.

Read more at IndustryWeek

‘Banner Year’ for Cargo at Stewart Airport

The coronavirus pandemic has all but wiped out passenger service at New York Stewart International Airport; however, cargo tonnage carried through the Newburgh area facility has increased substantially.

Airport Business Development Director Michael Torelli told the Stewart Airport Commission on Tuesday that when freight and mail are combined, 10.5 million tons were transported at the airport during the months of July and August.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

Cutting Tool Orders Signal a Rebound

Machine shops and other U.S. manufacturers purchased $156.1 million worth of cutting tools during September, +14.7% more than during August but -20.5% below the September 2019 total. As cutting-tool consumption is an index to the current rate of overall manufacturing activity, the September results reinforce the impression that domestic manufacturers are beginning the process of recovery from a recession that has been in process for about 12 months, but made more complicated by the halt in industrial activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Through September, cutting-tool consumption totals $1.4 billion, meaning that the 2020 purchases trail the January-September 2019 volume by -23.1%.

Read more at American Machinist

Wi-Fi to Get 5G Airwaves Boost as Carmakers Lose Choice

Depending on which member of the Trump administration you ask, the Federal Communications Commission will vote today to either enhance Wi-Fi speeds, cause preventable traffic accidents or threaten the country’s technological competitiveness. The Commission is expected to approve a plan to reallocate part of the wireless spectrum that was reserved in 1999 for carmakers, giving it instead to cable and telecoms firms and device-manufacturers to accommodate the growing number of Wi-Fi-enabled gadgets.

The agency points out that carmakers have barely used that swath of frequency, intended to let vehicles communicate with each other. But the Secretary of Transportation, Elaine Chao, insists the spectrum could still be used to prevent car crashes and save lives. The Treasury Department has sided with Ms Chao, adding that the portion of spectrum left for cars is insufficient to keep America’s smart-vehicle technology ahead of China’s. Unfortunately for them, the FCC is on a different wavelength.

Read More at Bloomberg

HBR: 10 Leadership Lessons from Covid Field Hospitals

The pandemic has forced leaders to be more accessible, bureaucracies to become more flexible and decisions to be made – and reversed – more quickly, write medical professionals who oversaw COVID-19 field hospitals in the UK and US. Even after the pandemic, leaders should recognize how much knowledge is untapped among junior staff, especially if there’s structure and clear goals.

Read more at the Harvard Business Review

Daily Briefing – 194

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday afternoon providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Monday, November 16^th.  “We all have a part to play – wear a mask, stay socially distant, avoid gatherings large and small, and wash your hands religiously. Our actions today determine our rate of positive cases tomorrow – it’s that simple.” The Governor said.

Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  

• Clusters: 4.89%
• Rockland Red zone: 5.28%
• Westchester yellow-zone: 7.42%
• Orange Orange zone: 2.01%
• Statewide: 3.18%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 2.82%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 2124 (408 in ICU) 
• Transmission Rate (R0): 1.32

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes and links to cluster maps)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard
• State transmission rates (R0)

U.S. Manufacturing Output Picks Up in October

U.S. manufacturing production accelerated in October, though exploding new COVID-19 infections across the country could cause disruptions at factories and leave the recovery in jeopardy.

Manufacturing output increased 1.0% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Data for September was revised up to show production at factories gaining 0.1% instead of decreasing 0.3% as previously reported. Factory production remains below its pre-pandemic level. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast manufacturing output rising 1.0% in October.

Read more at Reuters

Fed Supplemental Survey: Service Firms Report Weaker Labor Market than Manufacturers

35 percent of service firms and 44 percent of manufacturers said they expected their workforce to
increase over the next twelve months; conversely, 20 percent of service firms and 15 percent of manufacturers anticipated declines in the total number of workers. These balances are not much different, overall, than in the November 2019 survey—somewhat less positive among service firms, somewhat more positive among manufacturing firms (see table). Among service sector respondents, the most positive balances tended to come from businesses in retail, wholesale, education & health, and
professional & business services; the least positive balances came from those in leisure & hospitality, and real estate & construction (not shown in table).

Almost half of service-sector respondents and just over a third of manufacturers reported that they did not expect employment at their establishment to reach or surpass pre-pandemic levels within the next twelve months.

Read more at the NY Fed

CDC Releases Contact Tracing Video: “Answer the Call” 

The CDC’s Contact Tracing and Innovation Section within the State, Tribal, Local & Territorial Support Task Force has released a new video titled “Answer the Call” describing the contact tracing process. This video can be found on CDC’s Contact Tracing Resources for Health Departments webpage as well as in the Contact Tracing Communications Toolkit for Health Departments. This one-minute animated video informs the public about contact tracing and why they should answer and respond to a call from a public health worker.

Watch and share the video

How to Help Employees with Mental Health Issues

In August, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that almost 41% of all adults in the United States are struggling with their mental health or substance use. This is double what had been historically reported pre-pandemic. Another analysis has reported that 25% of adolescents said they had contemplated suicide.

Mental health experts have come up with a new term for the aggravating factor: allostatic overload. This term describes what happens to a brain that has to process stress signals nonstop, which ends up consuming mental resources faster than a person can replenish them.  Get some timely advice for employers who may find themselves dealing with employees who find themselves in this situation.

Read more at EHS Today

Jackson Lewis – The Future of Workplace Law Under President-Elect Joe Biden

As President-elect Joe Biden selects members of his Cabinet and prepares for his transition into the presidency, he and a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives may pursue a number of significant pieces of federal workplace legislation. Many of these employment law measures successfully passed the House in 2019 and 2020.

Moreover, as with any transition from the President of one party to the President of another party, presidential appointments to the administrative agencies such as the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the National Labor Relations Board are likely to have further effect for employers. 

• Read more at Jackson Lewis 
• Register for our webinar on this topic with Jackson Lewis

DOD Awards $6.18 Million Contract to Medline Industries, Inc. to Increase Domestic Production Capacity of Surgical Masks 

The Department of Defense, in coordination with the Department of Health and Human Services, awarded a $6.18 million contract to Medline Industries, Inc. to increase domestic production capacity of surgical masks. This industrial base expansion effort will allow Medline to increase production capacity in Lithia Springs, Georgia by 36 million surgical masks per month by May 2021.

This effort was funded through the HHS Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act to support domestic industrial base expansion for critical medical resources.

Read the DOD press release

Free Online Platform for New Yorkers to Learn New Job Skills, Earn Certificates & Advance Their Careers

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the launch of a new online training platform which will enable unemployed and underemployed New Yorkers weathering the COVID-19 pandemic to learn new skills, earn certificates, and advance their careers at no cost. The new course offerings are provided through a partnership between the New York State Department of Labor and Coursera, the world’s leading online learning platform.

The new tool will provide access to nearly 4,000 online programs taught by leading professors and industry professionals on Coursera, with a focus on high-growth and in-demand sectors like advanced manufacturing, technology, and health care, among others.  New Yorkers can request a free account on the New York State Department of Labor website.

Read the press release (includes a link to set up an account)

Asia Forges Massive Trade Deal

Fifteen countries across Asia have created the world’s largest trade deal. The agreement, dubbed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, cuts tariffs on a wide range of Asian goods and builds supply chains across a new trade zone that covers about 30% of the global population and around the same share of global economic output.

The deal includes the 10 countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.  The agreement is the second major deal in two years that has left the United States out of the mix. 

Read more at Reuters

Rolls-Royce Testing 100% Sustainable Jet Fuel

Rolls-Royce is planning to conduct ground tests on a high-bypass turbofan engine using 100% sustainable aviation fuel for the first time, aiming to establish that unblended SAF can be used in current engine models in place of current jet-fuel formulations.

The SAF to be tested will be produced by World Energy, a California-based low-carbon fuel specialist, and supplied by Shell Aviation and SkyNRG. “This unblended fuel has the potential to reduce net CO2 lifecycle emissions by over 75% when compared to traditional jet fuel, and by an even greater amount in the years to come,” according to Rolls-Royce.

Read more at American Machinist

Daily Briefing – 193

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday afternoon providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, November 15^th.  A total 124,565 COVID-19 tests were reported to the State Sunday.

Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  

• Clusters: 4.19%
• Rockland Red zone: 2.93%
• Westchester yellow-zone: 3.95
• Orange Orange zone: 0.00%
• Statewide: 2.80%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 2.50%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,968 (391 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes and links to cluster maps)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

New York State Transmission Rate  

The average number of people who become infected by an infectious person with COVID-19 is 1.28 in New York State making it 5th highest in the U.S. as of November 14th.  New York’s rate is only slower than those of Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island and New Hampshire A number below 1 indicates the spread of the virus is slowing, above 1 means it is accelerating.

See the transmission rates by State at Statista

Manufacturing Economy Report: Layoffs Lowest Since February 2017 Plus NFIB Survey and More

There were 456,000 manufacturing job openings in September, pulling back somewhat from the 469,000 postings in August, which was the best reading since July 2019.   Encouragingly, nonfarm business layoffs decreased from 1,533,000 in August to 1,333,000 in September, an all-time low. Meanwhile, layoffs in the manufacturing sector declined from 102,000 to 90,000, the lowest since February 2017 and well below the 635,000 layoffs in April.  

One sign of improved health is the “churn” seen in the labor market, and the number of quits has rebounded in recent months. This is also reassuring. Nonfarm payroll quits rose from 2,839,000 in August to 3,018,000 in September, the most since February, and manufacturing quits edged up from 207,000 to 212,000, a one-year high.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1116

Growth, But at a Slower Pace – Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity in New York State expanded only to a small degree in November. After falling seven points last month, the general business conditions index fell four points to 6.3 this month, indicating that growth continued to slow. Thirty-one percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 24 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index fell nine points to 3.7, indicating a slight increase in orders, and the shipments index fell twelve points to 6.3. Delivery times were little changed, while unfilled orders and inventories continued to decline.

Read more at the NY Fed

Stimulus Update – The Politics at Play

Washington lawmakers have worked to come to an agreement on the next coronavirus relief package for months. Post-election, those talks could get shaken up by new developments on Capitol Hill.

That includes the election of Democratic candidate Joe Biden to the Oval Office. But it will likely also be shaped by shifting power in the Senate and the near-term prospects for a Covid-19 vaccine.

Those factors could influence how much aid is sent out and when.

Explore the possibilities at CNBC

Home Prices Are Rising Everywhere in the U.S.

The median price for existing homes in each of the 181 metro areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors was higher in the third quarter from a year earlier. This broad-based rally for single-family homes marked the first time since 1980 that every metro area tracked by NAR posted an annual price increase in the same quarter, NAR said. Back then, the association tracked 19 metro areas.

Record-low mortgage-interest rates have also motivated shoppers to enter the market. And a longstanding shortage of homes for sale has worsened, increasing competition among buyers and sparking bidding wars. Existing-home sales have surged in recent months and reached a seasonally adjusted 14-year high in September.

Read more at the WSJ

Producer Prices Climbed More Than Expected in October, Inflation Overall Stays Muted

Producer prices in the U.S. increased by slightly more than anticipated in the month of October, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.3 percent in October after climbing by 0.4 percent in September. Economists had expected prices to inch up by 0.2 percent.  The bigger than expected increase in producer prices was partly due to a jump in food prices, which surged up by 2.4 percent in October amid a spike in prices for fresh and dry vegetables.

Read more at Nasdaq.com

Survey: 64% of Americans Open to New Job Opportunities

Sixty-four percent of American employees would consider changing jobs if approached by another employer or are seeking new job opportunities, and that rises to 76% among workers younger than 30, according to a Ceridian and Nielsen survey. Sixty-four percent of respondents said job security would play a larger part in career moves and engaging work was the top reason employees stay in their roles.

Read more at CNBC

Containers for US Exports Are Hard to Find

Containers for US exports are scarce these days as Asian exporters dominate supply ahead of the holidays, although there are supply constraints for cargo coming from Asia, too. “Right now we are grappling with a true emergency — carriers refusing bookings for trans-Pacific agricultural exports and canceling those already booked,” said Peter Friedmann, executive director at the Agriculture Transportation Coalition.

Read more at FreightWaves/American Shipper

GM Cuts Production at Two Plants as Pandemic Squeezes Supply Chain

General Motors was forced to curb production at two of its key assembly plants on Thursday and Friday due to parts shortages caused by the coronavirus pandemic — and industry observers fear that more disruptions could follow as the rate of Covid-19 infections surges to record levels.

Overtime work scheduled for Saturday at GM’s big SUV plant in Arlington, Texas, has been canceled, the automaker announced, while the Corvette plant in Bowling Green, Kentucky, was forced to temporarily shut down last Thursday and Friday. GM had been pressing to boost production at both factories to cope with shortages resulting from the industry’s two-month shutdown last spring.

Read more at NBC News

Democrats Ossoff, Warnock Start Georgia Runoffs Behind the Eight Ball

Joe Biden turned Georgia blue, barely. Compared to what they’re up against now, that was the easy part for Democrats.

To repeat Biden’s feat in a pair of Senate runoffs on Jan. 5, with control of the Senate on the line, the Democratic Party will have to defy a long track record of failure in overtime elections. They’ll need to overcome the entire weight of the Republican Party descending on the state — from organizers and operatives to potentially hundreds of millions of dollars. One of their Senate candidates, Jon Ossoff, would have to make up the nearly 90,000 votes he ran behind the GOP incumbent on Nov. 3.

• Read the story at Politico
• See the latest polls at Real Clear Politics

Daily Briefing – 191

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday afternoon providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Wednesday, November 11^th. A total 162,627 COVID-19 tests were reported to the State Wednesday. Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  

• Clusters: 4.86%
• Rockland Red zone: 2.84%
• Westchester yellow-zone: 11.43
• Orange Orange zone: 0.00%
• Statewide: 2.95%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 2.53%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,677 (308 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes and links to cluster maps)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

The Economist: What the Biden Administration Would do Differently on COVID-19

Forecasting the course of the disease over the long term has proved supremely difficult. It is therefore unclear how bad a situation a newly inaugurated President Biden would inherit on January 20th 2021. But the current signs do not augur well.

A virus spreading fast with no compensating stimulus would be a brutal starting position for a Biden administration. Even with expedited approval and distribution, getting a vaccine to every American who needs it would take months. Mr Biden has announced plans to take more serious federal action. He would use his executive authority to create a Rooseveltian Pandemic Testing Board to compel companies to produce more tests, laboratory materials and personal protective equipment. He probably lacks the authority to impose a mask mandate nationwide, but would push states to do so.

Read more at The Economist 

U.S. Unemployment Claims Slip but Hold at High Levels

Initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, declined to 709,000 last week from 757,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. While weekly claims have fallen from a peak of near 7 million at the end of March, they remain well above levels seen before the coronavirus hit this spring at just above 200,000.

 The number of people collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs, which cover most workers, dropped to 6.8 million for the week ended Oct. 31 from 7.2 million. Continuing claims are well below their spring levels, reflecting that many laid-off workers have been recalled to jobs or hired elsewhere. Others, though, have exhausted state benefits, a sign many are facing long periods of joblessness.

Read more at the WSJ

Manufacturing Job Openings Are Still Strong

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed a positive picture of the economy, according to NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray. He says:

“There were 456,000 manufacturing job openings in September, pulling back somewhat from the 469,000 postings seen in August, which was the best reading since July 2019 (477,000). Despite some easing in the latest data, the trendline is encouraging, with manufacturers once again increasing their interest in adding new workers and rebounding from springtime weaknesses due to COVID-19.”
“In September, manufacturers hired 351,000 workers, down from 384,000 in August and with weaker data for both durable and nondurable goods firms. At the same time, total separations declined from 332,000 to 324,000. Net hiring (or hiring minus separations) was 27,000 in September, slowing from a gain of 52,000 in August but still a solid figure.” 

Read the JOLTS report

Global Manufacturing Economic Update 

The International Monetary Fund predicts that worldwide GDP will fall 4.4% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and global recession, with output rebounding 5.2% in 2021. While economic activity has trended in the right direction, there are lingering worries in the outlook, including new restrictions on activity in many markets due to the continued spread of the virus. The service sector has seen renewed weaknesses in some areas, particularly in Europe, where COVID-19 cases are again on the rise. This could pose some risks to the manufacturing sector outlook moving forward if it persists.

That said the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace since May 2018, up from 52.4 in September to 53.0 in October, buoyed by strength in demand and production and rising for the fourth straight month. In October, eight of the top 10 markets for U.S.-manufactured goods had expanding manufacturing sectors, up from seven in September and just one (China) in May.

Global Manufacturing Economic Report 1112 2020

SBA Intends to Require Borrowers with Loans Over $2 Million to Complete a New Loan Necessity Questionnaire

Council Associate Member and friends Bond Schoeneck and King write that the Small Business Association (SBA) has circulated Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan necessity questionnaire forms that it intends to require borrowers with PPP loans in excess of $2 million to complete. It is expected that nonprofit entity borrowers will be required to complete Form 3510 and for-profit entity borrowers will be required to complete Form 3509. These troubling new questionnaires specifically require borrowers to disclose information regarding their operations and liquidity during their covered periods.

Read more at BSK

Cashless Tolling to Go Live Overnight on NYS Thruway’s Ticketed System Beginning Friday, November 13

Governor  Cuomo today announced cashless tolling will go live on the New York State Thruway’s ticketed system during the overnight hours of Friday, November 13, into Saturday, November 14. The historic conversion will take place simultaneously at 58 tolling locations across the Thruway’s 450-mile ticketed system. The ticketed system is the final section of the Thruway to be converted to cashless tolling.

The official switch will take place in the overnight hours to limit impact to traffic. At the time cashless tolling goes live, cash will no longer be accepted as a form of payment at toll booths and printed toll tickets will not be handed out. To support this transition, NY E-ZPass has released a new TollsNY mobile app to help drivers manage E-ZPass accounts, find and pay Tolls by Mail invoices, and get important account alerts for tolls accrued at Thruway, MTA, and Port Authority tolling sites.

Read the press release

FDA Issues Authorization for Eli Lilly COVID-19 Treatment

The Food and Drug Administration has issued an Emergency Use Authorization for Eli Lilly & Co.’s COVID-19 antibody treatment drug bamlanivimab. According to Eli Lilly, the EUA is based on positive results from Phase 2 trials when used on patients with recently diagnosed COVID. The drug uses laboratory-made antibodies, proteins the body usually creates to fight off infections, to handicap the spread of the virus in the body.

Data from the ongoing study, says Daniel Skovronsky, President of Lilly Research Laboratories, show the drug may help patients clear the virus and reduce hospitalizations. The drug is conditionally approved for use in mild to moderate COVID cases, but not for those who have been hospitalized or are receiving oxygen therapy.

Read more at IndustryWeek

GM to Hire 3,000 Engineers, Designers, IT Workers For Electric Vehicle Production

The automaker will hire 3,000 engineers, designers and technology specialists between now and the end of the first quarter, and most of those people can work remotely, opening up the talent pool across the nation.  

GM has said it envisions a future of zero emissions, zero crashes and zero congestion, which it will achieve through electric and autonomous vehicles. To that end, GM considers 18 months the timeline to develop each electric vehicle. To go that fast simultaneously will require more people.

Read more at the Detroit Free Press

Study: A Minority of People With COVID-19 Account for the Bulk of Transmission

The study published in Nature,  by Ramanan Laxminarayan of Princeton University and eight co-authors, finds that covid-19 transmission is highly concentrated. Of all the contacts traced, 7.5% subsequently tested positive for covid-19 (assumed to be caused by exposure to the infected person identified). Yet the academics find that these infections stem from a minority of originally infectious individuals. Fully 71% of infected people did not transmit the virus on. Most new transmissions were from a few “super-spreaders”: about 10% of the people caused 60% of new infections, giving covid to three other people, on average.

Risk of infection is greatest in private homes and among similarly aged people. That is corroborated by evidence from 1,600 covid-19 “super-spreading” events. Such transmission occurs most often in large buildings, while just three documented events have taken place outdoors. 

Read more and view some interesting charts at The Economist

Daily Briefing – 189

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo issued a press release detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Monday November 9th. Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  

• Clusters: 5.9%
• Rockland Red zone: 2.86%
• Westchester yellow-zone: 14.66
• Orange Orange zone: 2.62%
• Statewide: 3.09%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 2.56%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,548 (296 in ICU) 

We urge all our members to remain diligent in their efforts to prevent the spread of the virus. With the holidays coming up, colder weather in the offing and pandemic fatigue settling in it is more important than ever to stay focused on safety.  Our members have thus far done an excellent job keeping their people safe from the virus at work.  Let’s keep it that way!

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

New York’s Travel Advisory 2.0: BSK Has Updated Their Frequently Asked Questions

New York’s travel advisory has been substantially altered during the past two weeks. On October 31, Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued Executive Order 205.2, which revised the New York State Travel Advisory for domestic travel. On November 3, the New York State Department of Health issued an updated guidance document (the November 3 Guidance). The changes made by Executive Order 205.2 and the November 3 Guidance have generated confusion.

Bond Schoeneck & King discusses frequently asked questions they have received about the updates

US Job Openings Climb Slightly in September But Miss Expectations

US job openings rose by 84,000 to 6.4 million through September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, data published Tuesday. Nearly 480,000 were in manufacturing The reading lands below the 6.5 million openings expected by economists. The largest gains emerged in the transportation and warehousing, business services, and financial industries.

Openings decreased the most in the accommodation and food services, the retail trade, and construction industries.

Read more at Business Insider

Machine Tool Orders Surged in September

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers purchased $373.7 million worth of machine tools during September, +26.4% more than the August total, the highest monthly purchase value to date for the current year, as well as the highest monthly unit count at 2,354 metal-cutting and metal-forming/fabricating machines.

However, the September result is -3.2% lower than the September 2019 total and brings the nine-month total value for 2020 “manufacturing technology” orders to $2.32 billion, -24.3% lower than the January-September 2019 order. The results are provided by the AMT – the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology in its monthly U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report.

Read more at American Machinist

NAM: Remember the Regulators

While everyone is talking about the election results, let’s not forget about the slow and steady slog for better government—by which we mean, a stable and predictable regulatory system that encourages manufacturing growth instead of hampering it.

Recently, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons made the case for government-wide regulatory reform in a letter to the House Committee on Oversight and Reform.

Here’s what he had to say.

McConnell Taking the Lead on Stimulus Negotiations 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is expected to take a larger role in coronavirus relief talks while the Trump administration sidelines itself, The Washington Post reported on Sunday.

President-elect Joe Biden may also jump into the negotiations over a new stimulus package in the coming weeks, according to The Post. The political dynamics around coronavirus relief could be shifting in the wake of Biden’s election victory against President Donald Trump, who has refused to concede. Biden’s transition team is starting talks with congressional Democrats this week over priorities to pursue during the lame-duck session, The Post reported.

Read more at Business Insider

Evidence of PPP Fraud Mounts, Officials Say

Congress and the Trump administration designed the PPP to give small businesses fast and easy access to taxpayer funds, and it worked: About $525 billion in loans were distributed to 5.2 million companies between April 3 and Aug. 8. Many business owners say it was a lifeline in turbulent times.

But evidence is growing that many others took advantage of the program’s open-door design. Banks and the government allowed companies to self-certify that they needed the funds, with little vetting.  The Small Business Administration’s inspector general, an arm of the agency that administers the PPP, said last month there were “strong indicators of widespread potential abuse and fraud in the PPP.

Read more in the WSJ

Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s Vaccine is the Start of the End of the Pandemic

On November 9th Pfizer and BioNTech, two pharmaceutical firms, announced that the vaccine on which they have been collaborating is more than 90% effective in preventing symptomatic cases of covid-19. This is an astonishing result for a first-generation vaccine. Many had not dared to hope for efficacy of anything over 70%.

Three important questions about the vaccine remain. One is the extent to which it works in elderly people, one of the groups most vulnerable to covid-19, and who may not respond as well. Another is whether it prevents infectiousness (it remains possible that a vaccine could prevent someone from getting the symptoms of covid-19, but not from spreading it to others). And its long-term efficacy is entirely unknown.

Read more at The Economist

How Canon’s Pandemic Pivot Paints a Different Picture

Just a few weeks into the pandemic lockdowns, as toilet paper and Clorox wipes were becoming a rarified luxury, another shortage quietly emerged: webcams. Lots of people, suddenly thrust into the now-familiar world of constant Zoom calls, remote classrooms, and videoconferences, were scrambling to buy what had previously been a sleepy product, and there weren’t enough webcams to go around.  Canon, the camera-maker, spotted this shortage early — and saw an unexpected opportunity.

Canon did not make webcams, and has no plans to start. But within three weeks its engineering and software teams developed free software that would make it easy for Canon owners to convert their cameras into webcams. 

Read more about this customer driven pivot at Medium

Daily Briefing – 188

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo press briefing via phone call detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday November 8th. The COVID-19 infection rate continues to increase across the state, country and world. The Governor said he expects the rate to continue to increase through the fall and winter until a vaccine is widely distributed to the public. New York has successfully kept positivity rates low through its “micro-cluster” strategy which includes aggressive testing and enforcement efforts. Areas that have been declared as “micro-clusters” have seen progress in lowering rates through this strategy. New York has the third lowest positivity rate in the nation.

In a separate announcement yesterday the Governor updated the COVID-19 micro-cluster focus areas in New York State. Brooklyn’s red zone will transition to an orange warning zone, while there are new yellow precautionary zone focus areas in Erie, Monroe and Onondaga Counties.

Tracking data for the Clusters and the rest of the State are below.  

• Clusters: 4.3%
• Rockland Red zone: 2.43%
• Orange Orange zone: 1.47%
• Statewide: 2.8%
• Statewide excluding clusters: 2.6%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,444 (282 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

Biden Transition Team Unveils Members of Covid-19 Task Force

The list includes Rick Bright, the former head of the vaccine-development agency BARDA ousted by the Trump administration in April; Atul Gawande, the surgeon, writer, and recently departed CEO of Haven, the joint JP Morgan Chase-Berkshire Hathaway-Amazon health care venture; and Luciana Borio, a former Food and Drug Administration official and biodefense specialist. The task force also includes a variety of other well-known doctors and academics, among them Zeke Emanuel, a former Obama administration health care adviser, and Celine Gounder, a physician and medical journalist with years of experience combating HIV and tuberculosis outbreaks. 

Despite the task force’s breadth, it does not include several figures still seen as likely to play major roles in the Biden administration’s Covid-19 effort, including Joshua Sharfstein, the former deputy FDA commissioner, and Nicole Lurie, the Obama administration’s assistant health secretary for preparedness and response.

Read more at Statnews

Business Groups Breathe Sigh of Relief Over Prospect of Divided Government

With control of the Senate still uncertain (likely to come down to Republicans winning at least one of the two runoff elections in Georgia) the nation will likely have a divided government. Democrats will control the presidency and the House (albeit with a smaller majority in the new Congress) and Republicans the Senate.  Business groups had been bracing for a Democrat sweep that carried with it the risk of progressive policies and ramped-up regulations. Instead, the prospect of a split Congress and the gridlock that comes with it is being welcomed by many. 

Trade groups are optimistic that a Biden presidency, combined with a Republican-controlled Senate and Democrat-led House could open the door for moderate pro-business policies.

Read more in The Hill

Can President Trump Win His Election Challenges in Court? Alan Dershowitz Chimes In

Here is my completely objective, nonpartisan, non-ideological, expert prediction as to how the courts will likely resolve the multiple lawsuits being bought by President Trump and his team of lawyers.

He may well win his legal challenge in Pennsylvania to write-in ballots mailed before the end of Election Day but received over the subsequent three days. The question remains, however, whether a decision in favor of President Trump on these challenged mail-in ballots would make a difference in the outcome of Pennsylvania’s presidential tally. If former vice president Joe Biden has won the state by a margin in excess of the challenged votes, then a Trump victory on Article II grounds will be pyrrhic: Biden’s margin of victory would be smaller but he would still carry the state.

Read more at The Hill

EU Set to Impose $4B in Tariffs on US Exports

The European Union reportedly is set this week to impose tariffs totaling $4 billion annually on U.S. exports of aircraft and aircraft components, as well as fruits, nuts, and other produce, orange juice, some alcoholic spirits, construction equipment, and various other products. The move, which stems from the long-running dispute over subsidies to Boeing, would follow a November 9 meeting of EU trade ministers.  The EU had reserved the decision on leveling tariffs until after the recent presidential election.

In October, the World Trade Organization appellate panel authorized the EU to exercise tariffs on U.S. exports, about one year after the same body authorized the U.S. to apply tariffs on EU exports. The WTO previously had ruled that the EU had subsidized Airbus, as well as that the U.S. had subsidized Boeing. The charges in each case date to 2004.

Read more at Reuters

DiNapoli Predicts $3.8B More in State Tax Receipts

New York State’s tax receipts in the current fiscal year will exceed Governor Cuomo’s latest projections by $3.8 billion—still down from last year, but a big improvement over the governor’s worst-case scenario—according to updated estimates from state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s office.

DiNapoli’s revenue projection isn’t simply speculative; it’s grounded in actual tax collections through September, which were a not-insignificant $1.1 billion above the amount most recently projected by Governor Cuomo’s Division of the Budget (DOB). The comptroller’s office also projects that state revenues will exceed the latest DOB projections by $4.1 billion in fiscal 2022, which begins next April 1, and $3.5 billion in fiscal 2023

• Read the Controller’s report
• Read E.J. McMahon’s take at Empire Center

Monday Economic Report: Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Rate in 25 Months

The Institute for Supply Management reported that the manufacturing sector expanded in October at the fastest pace since September 2018, with the sector continuing to rebound from COVID-19-related weaknesses in the spring. The data were buoyed by robust growth in new orders, which rose at rates not seen since January 2004. With that said, there are also hints at lingering supply chain disruptions in the ISM despite solid progress since April in these data.

New orders for manufactured goods rose 1.1% in September, increasing for the fifth straight month. Despite recent progress, new factory orders have fallen 3.9% year-over-year, due largely to severe COVID-19 disruptions in March and April. More encouragingly, core capital goods spending—a proxy for capital spending in the U.S. economy—rose 1.0% in September, with 4.5% growth over the past 12 months.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1109

President-Elect Biden’s Agenda on Technology and Innovation Policy

ITIF has analyzed President-elect Joe Biden’s policy agenda on a range of important tech-related issues—from the digital economy and broadband telecommunications to trade policy, advanced manufacturing, life science, and clean energy. The overall picture that emerges is that the president-elect’s approach to technology and innovation policy appears to be formulated to engage government as an active partner alongside industry in spurring innovation—but also as a tougher regulator of many tech industries and technologies.

Read the report

Covid-19 Vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech is Strongly Effective – mRNA Technology is Also Behind Moderna Vaccine

Pfizer and partner BioNTech said Monday that their vaccine against Covid-19 was strongly effective, exceeding expectations with results that are likely to be met with cautious excitement — and relief — in the face of the global pandemic.

Both Pfizer’s vaccine and Moderna’s use messenger-RNA, or mRNA, technology, which uses genetic material to cause the body to create a protein from the virus; the immune system then recognizes the virus and learns to attack. Other vaccines in the late stages of development use genetically engineered viruses for a similar purpose, or pieces of protein that are directly injected. No mRNA product has ever been approved by regulators.

Read the article in StatNews (scroll down for a video on how the mRNA vaccine works)

3M on track to produce 95M N95 masks per month

3M is ramping up N95 mask production in Aberdeen, S.D., and expects to have the capacity to produce almost 95 million N95 masks per month by the end of the year. Last year, 3M manufactured about 22 million masks every month in the US.

The company announced Friday that two new production lines installed at its Aberdeen factory soon will increase production of N95 respirator masks due to high demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. The facility will be adding 120,000 square feet to expand production of N95 masks, thank to grants issued by U.S. Department of Defense contracts to further expand its U.S. production of N95 respirators.

Read the full story at The Argus Leader (Sioux Falls, S.D.)

Daily Briefing – 187

Joe Biden Is the 46th President of the United States – Trump to Challenge Results

A day after clinching the U.S. presidency, Democrat Joe Biden and his advisers were working on Sunday on how to address the nation’s coronavirus crisis while reinforcing his intention to bridge America’s gaping political divisions.  Biden on Saturday made clear that tackling the pandemic was a top priority. Biden plans to launch a coronavirus task force on Monday to plot the way forward, led by former surgeon general Vivek Murthy and former Food and Drug Administration commissioner David Kessler.

President Donald Trump said on Saturday his campaign would begin challenging U.S. election results in court next week after media outlets called the race for Democrat Joe Biden, saying “this election is far from over.”

Read more at Reuters

A Letter to Members on the Election from Council President Harold King

The vote counts are clear enough that news organizations have confidently projected a winner in the Presidential election. Though many races remain to be called it looks as though both parties have some reason to celebrate as Joe Biden will be President, and Republicans will have a good chance to maintain control of the Senate and have made gains in the House in in State elections.

We acknowledge the poll workers and volunteers who worked tirelessly through the pandemic to handle record turnout and make sure the process worked. Recounts and litigation are also part of our democratic process, and we trust they will run their course and that the election is accurate and there are no valid questions about its legitimacy.

Read more at CouncilofIndustry.org

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo issued a press release Sunday detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday November 7th. Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  The Governor also 

• Hotspot Zones: 3.72%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 2.43%
• Orange Orange Zone: 1.47%
• Statewide: 2.35%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 2.23%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,396 (295 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

“Great Day for Science and Humanity”’ Pfizer, BioNTech Say Covid Vaccine is More Than 90% Effective

U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”  Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, while White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has previously said one that is 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable.

U.S. stock futures skyrocketed on the news. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,458 points, implying an opening gain of more than 1,400 points.

Read more at CNBC

What Joe Biden’s Win Means for New York: 5 Things to Know

New York  leaders are hoping former Vice President Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 presidential election Saturday will mean the start of a more collegial relationship with the White House, which has been at odds with the Empire State on issues big and small over the last four years.

It means you could see a federal government that’s more amenable to New York’s infrastructure needs, including a key rail tunnel project between New York and New Jersey that has languished during Trump’s presidency.  It’s also possible some New York Democrats could find themselves with a job in the Biden administration, which could trigger vacancies in elected office here.

Here are five potential impacts Biden’s win could have on New York From the Rochester Democrat & Chronical

Drop in Jobless Rate Shows Healing U.S. Labor Market

Employers added 638,000 jobs last month—the sixth straight monthly gain—and the jobless rate fell a percentage point to 6.9%, the Labor Department said Friday. The job market has now recovered 12.1 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April, when the shutdown of businesses led the jobless rate to soar to a post-World War II high of 14.7%.

October’s job gain would have been higher without the release of temporary census workers from public payrolls. Private-sector employers added 906,000 jobs last month, a pickup from September, more than offsetting a drop of 268,000 jobs in the public sector. Industries that hired the most workers last month included leisure and hospitality—particularly restaurants—retail and construction.

Read more at the WSJ

Manufacturing Adds 38,000 Jobs

Manufacturing added 38,000 new jobs, fewer than the 60,000 added in September. Manufacturing still employs several thousand fewer people than it did before the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Durable goods manufacturing added 21,000 jobs: fabricated metal products added 7,200 jobs, primary metals added 6,000, and wood products added 4,400. Machinery manufacturers hired 3,900 more people, Computer and electronics manufacturers hired 3,500, and miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing added 2,100.  Nonmetallic mineral products, electrical equipment and appliances, transportation equipment, and furniture all lost jobs.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Manufacturers Fare Better Than Many Service Providers in Covid-19 Economy

Months into the crisis, a clear divide between survivors and casualties is emerging. Countries, workers and industries that rely on making stuff—from computers to furniture to toys—are getting by, or even thriving, amid the economic maelstrom.

Meanwhile, those who provide the sort of face-to-face services that people avoid out of fear of infection—traveling, eating out, going to the movies and some child care—are struggling. Services that don’t require physical proximity—such as many financial services, software and telecommunications—have been less badly hit, as have construction and farming.  This divide between manufacturing and services means the pain has fallen especially heavily on female and immigrant workers and on economies with large informal sectors or with heavy exposure to tourism, entertainment and travel.

Read more at the WSJ

Grant Thornton Survey: Pandemic Supply Chain Changes 

There’s no doubt the pandemic had a disruptive impact on many manufacturing companies and in many areas of activity. But while three quarters of survey respondents reported some level of supply chain disruption, the majority (60%) now consider that level of disruption as only minor. Nevertheless, it meant around half had to rapidly reforecast demand, almost a third had to reduce production and two in five began to identify new suppliers as their existing global networks tried to cope with the initial disruption.

Regardless, this research also suggests the pandemic has called attention to some areas of improvement in manufacturing supply chain operations such as mitigation of future risks, streamlining operations, and minimizing potential vulnerabilities.

Review some results and download the report at Grant Thornton.

Toyota More Than Doubles Profit Outlook as China Sales Rebound

Japan’s top automaker said it now expects an operating profit of 1.3 trillion yen ($12.6 billion) for the year through March, 2021, up from the 500 billion it predicted previously. Operating profit for the previous financial year was 2.47 trillion yen.  That topped the 1.25 trillion yen average estimate for full-year profit from 26 analysts polled by Refinitiv.

For the second quarter, from July to September, operating profit fell to 506 billion yen from 662.4 billion in the same period a year earlier, according to Reuters’ calculations, as sales dipped amid the coronavirus impact globally.

Read more at Reuters

The WHO is Hunting for the Coronavirus’s Origins – Here are the New Details

Ten months have passed since health officials cited Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market as ground zero for the COVID-19 pandemic—and a global debate over how the pandemic began has existed for nearly as long. But the public may soon learn answers as the World Health Organization embarks on the final stages of a search for the coronavirus’s origins.

Disease detectives who have worked on similar hunts say this is business as usual. The WHO lacks the staffing—with 7,000 employees spread across 150 countries—to conduct a full-scale investigation on its own and always relies on national teams or international volunteers for field work.

Read more at Nat Geo

Daily Briefing – 184

Election Results

It is expected to be a long night and results may still be coming in. Use the links below to see the results in the presidential contest as well as to learn which party will control the U.S. Senate and the extent of the Democrat majority in New York State. 

• The results for President from the NY times
• The latest US Senate Results from the NY Times
• The latest New York State results from the NY Times

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo issues a press release today stating that New York continues its effective micro-cluster approach with focused testing and targeted restrictions in areas where the metrics show sustained high levels of viral spread. The release detailed New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Monday November 2nd.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.

• Hotspot Zones: 2.63%
• Orange Orange Zone: 2.09%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 2.48%
• Statewide: 1.81%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.71%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,227 (268 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

Managing Stress and Anxiety During the Election

Our friends and Associate Members, Emergency One offer some advice on dealing with the news over the next few days (weeks?)

“We’re at the apex of the election cycle but that does not mean that heightened tension and the polarization that goes along with the election will go away after tomorrow. When “your side” loses, it can feel like the world is going off track in terrible and permanent ways. You can feel personally threatened in ways that trigger deep and uncomfortable emotions.

How can you manage your anxiety in times of political conflict while remaining positive? Click for some tips to help you through the next several days.”

Managing Stress and Anxiety During the Election

SBA Releases PPP Necessity Questionnaires

Council  Associate Member and friend PKF O’Connor Davies notes that the The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) announced last week that it will be issuing Loan Necessity Questionnaires to Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Borrowers that, together with their affiliates, received PPP loans with an original principal amount of $2 million or more. According to the SBA, the purpose of these questionnaires is to facilitate the collection of supplemental information that will be used by SBA loan reviewers to evaluate the good-faith certification that Borrowers made on their PPP loan application forms that economic uncertainty made the loan request necessary. Two different versions of the loan Necessity Questionnaire have been released, Form 3509 for for-profit Borrowers and Form 3510 for not-for-profit Borrowers.

Read more at PKF O’Connor Davies

Factories Bounce Back Around the World as Consumers Rally

Factories across the globe bounced back strongly in October, as manufacturers hired more people and ramped up production of consumer goods in hot demand despite rising coronavirus infections.

Fresh surveys of purchasing managers for manufacturers showed a continuing divide between companies that are making products—from cars to electronics—and companies providing face-to-face services that people are shunning. The surveys released Monday indicated that the manufacturing sector continued to revive as the fourth quarter began, especially in global powerhouses such as the U.S. and Germany.

Read more in the WSJ

Commerce Department: U.S. Factory Orders Rise Solidly

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that factory orders rose 1.1% after climbing 0.6% in August. Orders were boosted by increased demand for primary metals, computers and electronic products as well as motor vehicles and fabricated metal products. But orders for machinery, furniture and electrical equipment, appliances and components fell.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would rise 1.0% in September.

Read more at Reuters

3 Experts On How COVID-19 Changed Manufacturing and Supply Chains Around the World

Fast Company’s Shape of Tomorrow series asked business leaders to share their inside perspective on how the COVID-19 era is transforming their industries. Here’s what’s been lost—and what could be gained—in the new world order.

The food business used to be highly predictable, but the coronavirus pandemic changed all that, forcing General Mills to “build new tools, new rituals and new processes” in response to radical shifts in consumer demand, according to Chief Supply Chain Officer John Church. He and leaders at bedding company Boll & Branch and manufacturing technology company Nanotronics share how they and their businesses have adapted to the global crisis.

Read what they had to say at Fast Company

CMS Acts to Ensure Coverage of Life-Saving COVID-19 Vaccines & Therapeutics

 The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released a comprehensive plan with proactive measures to remove regulatory barriers and ensure consistent coverage and payment for the administration of an eventual vaccine for millions of Americans. CMS released a set of toolkits for providers, states and insurers to help the health care system prepare to swiftly administer the vaccine once it is available. These resources are designed to increase the number of providers that can administer the vaccine, ensure adequate reimbursement for administering the vaccine in Medicare, while making it clear to private insurers and Medicaid programs their responsibility to cover the vaccine at no charge to beneficiaries.

Read the press release

Data Privacy Considerations for Employers Collecting Health Data from Employees 

With the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, for the first time ever, many companies are collecting more private information, including health information such as temperature screenings and health questionnaires, from their employees to assist with a safe transition back to the workplace from work at home.  In doing so, there are several data privacy laws and principles that companies may wish to consider when determining how they will collect, use, disclose and maintain this employee data.

This article is designed to address the balance between collecting health information from employees to maintain a safe workplace with those employees’ privacy concerns. 

Read more at EHS Today

Movement on Million Dollar Next-Gen Mask Challenge

XPRIZE, the world’s leader in designing and operating incentive competitions to solve humanity’s grand challenges, is pleased to announce, in tandem with the rollout of their seven industry partners, the selection of the 25 international teams moving forward in the $1 Million XPRIZE Next-Gen Mask Challenge. Youth representing 12 countries moved forward in the challenge based on their design’s ingenuity, effectiveness, X-factor of style, and ability to overcome common barriers to use.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Daily Briefing – 183

Vote

More than 90 million Americans have already voted.  If you are not one of them today is election day and the last chance to have to exercise that right.  We encourage you to do so. 

• Find your polling place and who is on the ballot
• The Presidential candidates on manufacturing issues

COVID and Cluster Update 

Governor Cuomo held a briefing by phone call Sunday detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday October 31st.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.

The Governor also stated that administering a vaccine to the public will be the greatest operational task untaken by government during the pandemic. Testing, management of the hospital system, and contact tracing were all large operational tasks for government, but the administration of a vaccine will be far more difficult.  

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.5%
• Orange Orange Zone: 3.75%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 4.20%
• Statewide: 1.7%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.4%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,151 (276 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

BSK: Domestic Travel Advisory Substantially Revised — More Testing, Fewer Quarantine Days

On October 31, Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued Executive Order 205.2, which substantially revises the New York State Travel Advisory for domestic travel. The revisions take effect Wednesday, November 4 and do not apply to international travelers. For rules applicable to international travelers, click here. These revisions also do not apply to essential workers.

• Read more at Bond Schoeneck & King
• Rules applicable to essential workers
• Read the executive order

Empire Center: Cuomo Issues Mid-Year Budget Update

The main mid-year takeaways promoted by the accompanying press release from Cuomo’s Division of the Budget (DOB) were “a $14.9 billion General Fund revenue decline and a 15.3 percent All Funds tax receipts decline from the Budget forecast released in February, creating a total loss of nearly $63 billion through FY 2024 as a direct consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

These numbers—while accurate—are nothing new. They also are misleading: the current budget hole is, at most, $8 billion, and since the state budgets only one year at a time, multi-year differences in future revenues as projected back in February are not meaningful.

• Read the Empire Center Article from E.J. McMahon
• Read the press release

ISM’s Manufacturing Index for October Reaches Highest Level Since September 2018

The ISM’s Pricing Manager’s Index for manufacturing rose to 59.3%, up 3.4 points from September, marking the highest point for the PMI since September 2018.  

The ISM’s indexes for new orders, production, backlog of orders, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, prices, export and imports all rose compared to their September levels. The new orders index rose 7.7 points to 67.9%, the production index grew 2 points to 63%, inventories grew 4.8 points to 51.9%, and prices increased by 2.7 points to 65.5%. Customer inventories fell 1.2 points to 37.9%, its lowest point since June 2010, a level considered a positive for future production.  The index for manufacturing employment grew by 3.6 points, landing at 53.2%. The October results breaks a 14-month streak of contraction in manufacturing employment.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Monday Economic Report: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Trade Deficit, Household Spending…. All Good News

The U.S. economy bounced back strongly, jumping 33.1% at the annual rate in the third quarter, the largest increase in the history of the series.  Despite soaring in the third quarter, real GDP remained down 3.5% year to date.  Moving forward, real GDP is expected to rise an annualized 3.0% in the fourth quarter, but uncertainties continue to exist in the marketplace, which could challenge that outlook. Overall, the U.S. economy is predicted to shrink 3.3% in 2020, with 4.0% growth forecasted for 2021.

• Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.4% in September.
• Initial unemployment claims totaled 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24.
• At the same time, continuing claims declined from 8,465,000 for the week ending Oct. 10 to 7,756,000 for the week ending Oct. 17.
• New orders for durable goods rose 1.9% in September.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1102

Citron Cooperman Survey: The Current Pulse of Manufacturing & Distribution Firms

Citron Cooperman’s Manufacturing and Distribution Practice team conducted this research to take the pulse of company leaders in the moment—amid COVID-19—and with an eye to the future.

Here are our three big takeaways from the Summer 2020 survey:

• Revenues and earnings are surprisingly steady. The best performers have more traction with
  e-commerce.  There is a strong correlation between those who do at least half their business online and significant growth in revenue and earnings.
• Technology and e-commerce rank highest for the biggest keys for future growth. Although investments in these areas has occurred over the years, improvements in the automation of processes and use of financial data is imperative.
• COVID-19 has changed distribution in a variety of ways, most prominently changing the demand of product. This comes as no surprise. The big news is that nearly half of respondents see changing their business models their top priority challenge.

Citron Cooperman Manufacturing and Distribution Report 2020

WebMD Report: Employees Need More from Employers to Navigate the Pandemic

Employees have not been getting the kind of support they need from their employers to better manage their emotional and physical health during the pandemic, according to the results of a new report from WebMD Health Services. 

The survey, The Pandemic Disconnect: Employee Well-being, Employer Response, and Opportunities for Change released today, found that 77% of employees say the pandemic has had a negative impact on their well-being, with more than half (51%) citing increased stress, anxiety and feelings of isolation (49%). More than one-third say they are feeling depressed, frustrated or angry more often, are exercising less and not eating well.

Read more at BioSpace

Altor Safety LLC Receives $800,000 New York State Grant For Upstart Company

In April, Russell Fawkes and Jonathan Scott – long-time friends and Rockland entrepreneurs – fused the strengths of their companies to form a new one, Altor Safety, LLC, a mask manufacturer.

Fawkes heads up the Congers-based company PowerPak Civil & Safety, a national distributor of safety and PPE equipment. Scott is CEO of Metro-Wall, a Valley Cottage-based manufacturer and installer of interior glass partitions.

Together, they’re part of a new army of manufacturing warriors that are fighting down the coronavirus.

Read more in the Rockland Business Journal 

Daily Briefing -182

Cuomo Executive Order Amends Traveler Quarantine Restriction Policy – Allows Travelers to “Test Out” 

The Executive Order directs the Commissioner of the Department of Health to modify the travel advisory. The modified Travel Advisory is effective at 12:01 a.m. on November 4, 2020, until rescinded by the Commissioner.  Any violation of a quarantine or isolation order issued to an individual pursuant may be subject to a civil penalty of up to $10,000. 

The Travel Advisory now states that all travelers entering New York from a state which is not a contiguous state shall quarantine for a period of 14 days consistent with Department of Health regulations for quarantine unless:

LESS THAN 24 HOURS –  For travelers who travel outside of New York for less than 24 hours, the traveler does not need to test prior to departure from the state, and does not need to quarantine upon arrival back in New York. However, such travelers must continue to fill out the traveler form upon entry; and shall take a diagnostic test upon the fourth day after arrival in New York.

MORE THAN 24 HOURS – For any traveler who has traveled outside of New York for more than 24 hours, such traveler must seek testing prior to departure from that state, within 72 hours of departure, and prior to arrival in New York. The traveler must, upon arrival in New York, quarantine according to Department of Health guidelines for a minimum of three days, measured from time of arrival, and on day four may seek a diagnostic test to exit quarantine. The traveler may exit quarantine upon receipt of the second negative test result.

ESSENTIAL WORKERS – The Commissioner may issue additional protocols for essential workers, or for other extraordinary circumstances, when a quarantine is not possible, provided such measures continue to safeguard the public health. 

Read the press release

COVID and Cluster Update – New Record High Number of COVID-19 Tests Reported

Governor Cuomo held a briefing by phone call Sunday detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday October 31st.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.10%
• Orange Orange Zone: 3.75%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 4.20%
• Statewide: 1.5%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.3%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,125 (259 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

Tomorrow is “Last Day to Vote Day”  Here Are The Latest Polls for President and Senate Control

With early voting taking place across the country and expanded vote by mail opportunities the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is more like the last day to vote than election day. Here are the latest public opinion polls from and Real Clear Politics. 

• President
  • National
  • Battle Ground States
• Senate
  • Senate Map
  • No Toss Ups

Dems Battle Seek Supermajority in New York State

Democrats in the State Senate currently hold the largest majority in over a century, with 40 out of 63 members. In 2018, Democrats took control of the Senate for the first time in more than 100 years. Now they are poised to potentially gain even more control, being only two seats away from a supermajority.  

A state Senate supermajority for Democrats would certainly change the political landscape of Albany allowing the Legislature to override any vetoes issued by Governor Andrew Cuomo. Democrats already dominate the State Assembly by a 2-1 ratio, and hold the power to override a veto as it is.   Key races this year are in Western New York, Long Island and the Hudson Valley. 

Read more and watch the video at Spectrum News 

Redfin.Com: Users Leaving Expensive States Picks Up With Pandemic

California and New York had the biggest upticks in people looking to move out of state since last year, followed by Massachusetts, Washington, D.C., and Illinois, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Nearly 53,000 more Redfin.com users looked to move out of California than into it in the third quarter, a 62% increase since the third quarter of 2019 and the highest rate since Redfin started tracking migration in the beginning of 2017. In New York, almost 47,000 more Redfin.com users looked to leave the state than move in during the third quarter, roughly 35% more than the 35,000 home searchers looking to leave during the same time period last year.

Read more at the Daily Record (WA)

CDC’s Expanded “Close Contact” Rule Problematic for Employers

The revised definition of close contact issued by CDC on Oct. 21 now applies to “someone who was within six feet of an infected person for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period starting from two days before illness onset (or, for asymptomatic patients, two days prior to test specimen collection) until the time the patient is isolated.”  

“This deceptively subtle change could have a significant impact on how businesses identify who has been exposed to COVID-19 and who, therefore, should quarantine for 14 days,” say attorneys for the law firm of Morgan Lewis & Bockius. “Indeed, after someone in the workplace tests positive, substantially more employees will likely be identified as close contacts and required to quarantine under the CDC’s updated guidance.”

Read more at EHS Today

U.S. Household Spending Rose 1.4% in September

The Commerce Department said personal-consumption expenditures—a measure of household spending on goods and services—rose 1.4% last month. Consumers have increased spending since the summer, although the pace of gains slowed into early fall. Consumers last month doled out more on autos, clothing and footwear, continuing a trend of robust outlays on goods due to pent-up demand from pandemic-related economic disruptions.

Personal income—a measure of what households receive from wages and salaries, government aid and investments—was up 0.9% last month, after a sharp decline in August, rising on higher pay and remaining pandemic-related aid. 

Read more in the WSJ

DiNapoli: Local Sales Tax Collections in NYS Down for Third Quarter 2020

Sales tax revenue for local governments in New York state dropped 9.5 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, according to State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. Sales tax collections from July to September totaled $4.3 billion, or $452 million less than last year.

Read the Controller’s report

Ford Reports Strong Third Quarter as Demand for Trucks and SUVs Picks Up Again

Ford Motor Co. made $2.4 billion in net income during the third quarter of 2020 and revised its full-year outlook to reflect an overall profit as demand for SUVs and pickup trucks advanced faster than expected.

The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker recorded total revenue of $37.5 billion for the quarter on a net income margin of 6.4%. The company ended the quarter with nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion in liquidity after fully repaying $15 billion in revolving credit loans. Updated guidance for the fourth quarter anticipate earnings between break-even and a loss of $500 million.

Read more in IndustryWeek

The Pandemic May be Leading to Fewer Babies in Rich Countries

It is too early, by a few months at least, to be sure what the effect of covid-19 will be on fertility rates. But different patterns seem to be emerging in rich and poor countries. In the rich world many are holding off starting a family or adding to it. But in the poorest places a baby boom may be in the offing. Governments are already trying to adapt. It is not just Singapore trying to boost birth rates. Japan’s new prime minister, Suga Yoshihide, last week called for health insurance to cover in vitro fertility treatment. 

The big question is how long-lasting the impact on birth rates will be. History suggests the decline in birth rates could be rapidly reversed. 

Read more in The Economist

Daily Briefing – 181

COVID and Cluster Update – New Record High Number of COVID-19 Tests Reported

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Wednesday, October 28th.  A total of 168,353 COVID-19 diagnostic tests were reported to the State; a new record for a single day.

Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.24%
• Orange Orange Zone: 2.65%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 2.72%
• Statewide: 1.48%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.25%
• Statewide hospitalizations: 1,085 (237 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

US Economic Activity Rose at a Record 33.1% Annualized Pace After Pandemic Slump

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance print on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• 3Q GDP, annualized quarter-over-quarter: 33.1% vs. 32.0% expected, -31.4% in the second quarter
• 3Q Personal Consumption: 40.7% vs. 38.9% expected, -33.2% in the second quarter
• 3Q GDP Price Index: 3.6% vs. 2.9% expected, -1.8% in the second quarter
• 3Q Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 3.5% vs. 4.0% expected, -0.8% in the second quarter

The quarterly U.S. GDP report served as a backwards-looking view of the state of the economy, especially now given the ever-changing landscape induced by the coronavirus pandemic.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 751,000, Lowest Since March 14

Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24, down 40,000 from the previous week. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims to come in at 778,000. It was the lowest initial claims total since the week of March 14, when they came in at 282,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 778,000 new claims for last week.

But with Covid-19 infections rising sharply again, economists voiced concern about the jobs market and economy.

Read more at CNBC

Good News/Bad News – Shrinking Labor Force Drives New York State’s Unemployment Rate Below 10%

GOOD NEWS: New York State’s unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent in September, marking the first time the rate has been below 10 percent since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2.8 percentage point improvement in the unemployment rate was the second largest among all states, as shown in the map below. New Jersey led the nation with a 4.4 percentage point decline.

BAD NEWS: Unfortunately, a deeper dive into the BLS data reveals troubling context: New York State’s workforce declined by nearly 363,000 last month, a 2.3 percentage point drop from August (based on preliminary figures), while the number of individuals officially considered unemployed declined by 302,000. In short, the unemployment rate went down in large part because of the decline in New Yorkers counted as working or seeking employment. Such a decrease in the size of the workforce may indicate that individuals have ceased searching for a job actively.

Read more at the Controller’s website

Bond Schoeneck and King Has Updated Their New York Travel Restrictions  Frequently Asked Questions

On October 27, Governor Andrew Cuomo added California to the travel advisory. Massachusetts meets the criteria to be added to the travel advisory list but was not added because a quarantine would be nearly impossible to enforce along New York’s border.  In addition, on September 28, 2020, Governor Cuomo issued Executive Order 205.1 which requires travelers coming to New York from any country with a CDC Level 2 or Level 3 countries to quarantine. On October 8, 2020, the Department of Health updated its Interim Guidance for Quarantine Restrictions on Travelers Arriving in New York State Following Out of State Travel (the Guidance).

The changes to the Guidance are significant. BSK attorneys examine some frequently asked questions about the Order and the Guidance.

Read more as BSK

ECB Hints at More Stimulus in December

The European Central Bank hinted at more monetary stimulus on Thursday, as the two largest economies in the region prepare for a second national lockdown.  The bank decided to keep its rates and wider monetary policy unchanged, but suggested that additional policy action in the euro zone could come as soon as December.

“The Governing Council will carefully assess the incoming information, including the dynamics of the pandemic, prospects for a rollout of vaccines and developments in the exchange rate,” the ECB said in a statement on Thursday.

Read more at CNBC

Caterpillar Sees Improvement in Still-Depressed Third-Quarter Sales

Profit per share of the heavy-equipment manufacturer was $1.22, $1.44 or 54% less than it was a year ago. The company’s operating profit margin was 10.0%.

Sales of construction equipment in the third quarter were 23% worse in the third quarter of 2020 than they were in Q3 2019. Sales were 21% worse than last year for sales of mining and resource equipment during the third quarter and 24% worse for energy and transportation equipment.

Read more at IndustryWeek

How Automakers Keep COVID-19 Off Factory Floors

• Temperature checks before getting on to the factory floor…
• social distancing during lunch breaks…
• Masks on at all times while working…
• and cleaning, cleaning, cleaning….

That’s how auto factories in the midwest and the south are running at near-full speed even though COVID-19 cases are surging in the communities right outside their factory walls.

So far, there’s been no major outbreaks on any of the factory floors operated by Detroit’s Big Three, since General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler resumed production in May after the pandemic forced an unprecedented two-month shut down.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Survey: Pandemic Leads Women to Consider Career Change

The economic fallout of COVID-19 has had a severe impact on women in the workplace. In fact, 58%  say COVID-19 has had a negative impact on their careers., according to a  new survey from MetLife examining the barriers women are facing amid the pandemic.

Despite this disruption – or perhaps because of it – roughly 1 in 4 women have been considering a career change since the pandemic hit. Many women are looking at STEM fields, specifically, with 2 in 5 noting that they are interested in pursuing a career in STEM, an industry forecasted to grow at a greater rate than non-STEM industries in the years ahead.

Read more in IndustryWeek

Daily Briefing -178

NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

Governor Cuomo held a press briefing from Albany yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, October 25th. Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

Here is a summary of positivity rates:

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.25%
• Orange Hot Zone: 1.54%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 8.53%
• Statewide: 1.45%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.18%

Here are some useful links:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard See the SUNY Dashboard

“Mask Up” Campaign to Benefit COVID-19 Relief Efforts

New York is partnering in with The RealReal and dozens of New York fashion designers to launch “Mask Up” – a five-week campaign to benefit COVID-19 relief efforts and encourage everyone to wear masks. As a part of this campaign, there will be themed mask releases every Monday.  A limited edition “New York Tough” mask designed by the acclaimed New York fashion label Public School was released today as part of the campaign. Governor Cuomo’s daughter Mariah has been volunteering on this project.

Read the press release

Europe Imposes New Covid-19 Restrictions as Second Wave Accelerates

Daily confirmed infections in Europe, which overtook the U.S.’s daily detected infections during October, are threatening to overwhelm European countries’ capacity to test, trace and isolate virus carriers, leading authorities and health experts to warn that the pandemic could intensify. Governments are hoping that last-ditch measures such as curbs on socializing and nightlife can reduce contagion again without strangling Europe’s economic recovery.

France announced a daily record for coronavirus infections, with confirmed infections reaching over 52,000 on Sunday. Italy, struggling with an explosive rise in infections, imposed the toughest restrictions on its population since ending its lockdown, including the closure of all bars and restaurants at 6 p.m. In Spain, the government announced a state of emergency, as it did in March, giving national authorities greater powers to impose social-distancing and emergency health-care policies.

Read more in the WSJ

Monday Economic Report: State Job Creation, PMI, Conference Board Survey and More

Michigan created the most net new manufacturing jobs in September, adding 5,200 workers. Other states with notable employment growth for the month included Wisconsin (up 4,800), Maine (up 4,700), Florida (up 3,700), South Carolina (up 3,600), Georgia (up 3,300) and Ohio (up 3,100). Despite gains over the past five months, manufacturing employment figures continue to experience sizable declines due to COVID-19.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.7% in September, increasing for the fifth straight month but still 4.1% lower than pre-pandemic levels in February.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1026

Stocks Slide on Virus Rise, Fading Stimulus Hopes

U.S. stocks dropped sharply, with the Dow industrials down about 650 points, as coronavirus cases surged in America and Europe, adding to worries about the economic outlook after Congress and the White House failed to agree on a fiscal stimulus deal

Read more at the WSJ

Survey: COVID-19 Isn’t Cancelling the Holidays Season 

Consumers are expected to spend an average of $1,387 per household this season, with the pandemic shifting how and where consumers will shop, according to Deloitte’s 35th annual holiday retail survey released on Oct. 20. 

“In this season of uncertainty, price, value and convenience continue to be top considerations for consumers, as is the desire to get creative with how they celebrate the season with family, friends and pets, no matter the circumstances,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution leader

See the key findings at Material Handling and Logistics

Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Kun-hee Dies at 78

Samsung Electronics chairman Lee Kun-hee, who transformed the South Korean firm into a global tech titan, died at the age of 78 on Sunday, the company said. Under Lee’s leadership, Samsung rose to become the world’s largest producer of smartphones and memory chips, and the firm’s overall turnover today is equivalent to a fifth of South Korea’s GDP.

Samsung’s meteoric rise helped make Lee South Korea’s richest and most powerful industrialist.

Read more at IndustryWeek

The Hidden Costs of Working From Home

Nearly half of the American workforce recently entered their seventh straight month of working from home due to the coronavirus pandemic. As of June, 42 percent of American workers were working from home, while 26 percent of workers were reporting to work in person, according to Stanford University.

“Working from home has ups and downsides on costs,” Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom told NBC News. “Of course, you do have to pay more water and you do have to pay more electricity … On the other hand, you have to set that against you’ve saved a lot of money on commuting.”

Read more at NBC News

Survey: Pandemic Fueling Stress Among Workers

One quarter of workers have considered leaving their jobs due to pandemic-driven stress, according to a study by SAP and AP-NORC. The survey reveals 80% of respondents said they felt positively about their employer’s response to the pandemic.

A quarter of the people we spoke with said they were considering quitting their job, and there was not a big difference between those working remotely and those who had to leave the home to work. But employees who are still going into a workplace were more likely to say they experienced a higher amount of stress, she said.  In addition, the poll found that 28% of those surveyed have cut back on their hours, and 20% have had to take leave.

Read more at CNN

Daily Briefing – 177

NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

Governor Cuomo held a press briefing via phone call yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday, October 24th.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State is below.  In addition to the COVID update the Governor also spoke about early voting and again called one the federal government to help the state with its budget challenges. 

Here is a summary of positivity rates:

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.10%
• Orange Hot Zone: 1.21%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 2.78%
• Statewide: 1.30%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.06%

Here are some useful links:

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard See the SUNY Dashboard

DiNapoli: Halfway Through the Year, Revenue Hole Persists

Halfway through the state’s fiscal year, state tax receipts are trailing last year by $2.8 billion, according to the September State Cash Report released by New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

State tax revenues totaled $8.8 billion in September, $922.3 million higher than the latest projections by the state Division of the Budget (DOB). Total tax revenues in September were a net $364.1 million higher than those in 2019, primarily due to a $440 million increase in personal income tax collections resulting partly from an additional day in September of withholding collections and lower refunds.

Read more at the controllers website

Jobless Claims Fall

Weekly initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 55,000 to a seasonally adjusted 787,000 in the week ended Oct. 17, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims for the prior two weeks were revised lower, reflecting new data from California. The revised level of claims for the week ended Oct. 3—767,000—was the lowest since the March 14 week, when less than 300,000 new claims were filed.

The number of people collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs, which cover most workers, decreased by 1 million to about 8.4 million for the week ended Oct. 10, also the lowest since March. That is consistent with many employers recalling workers furloughed earlier this year, and some, such as online retailers and logistics firms, adding staff.

Read more in the WSJ

Workers Who Lost jobs Because of COVID-19 Find New Careers in These Fields

As the health crisis continues to rage across the country and more temporary job losses become permanent, a small but growing number of laid-off and working Americans in hard-hit industries like restaurants, retail and travel are switching to new careers or occupations. Many are transitioning to sectors that have thrived during the pandemic, such as technology, health care, real estate, banking, and warehousing and delivery.

Sixty-three percent of workers who lost jobs because of the outbreak have changed their industry and 4% have changed their field or overall career path, according to a Harris Poll survey for USA TODAY. Community colleges haven’t seen much of an uptick in students due to social distancing, but enrollment in online skills courses such as web development and financial analysis are up significantly.

Read more at USA Today

AstraZeneca, J&J Resuming US Tests of COVID-19 Vaccines

The Food and Drug Administration has given AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson permission to resume Phase 3 trials of their respective covid-19 vaccines. Both drug makers had paused the process after participants fell ill. The FDA concluded that there was no evidence that the subjects’ illnesses were caused by the vaccines.

Read more at the AP

Can Employers Require Mandatory Vaccinations?

The discussion from Greenwald Doherty relates to flu vaccination issues, which may be instructive for when a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available. They do note that the circumstances, law, and guidance relating to a COVID-19 vaccine may be different than those that apply to flu vaccination and could compel a different analysis.

In industries where employees serve and interact with populations who are more susceptible to contracting the flu (such as healthcare or early education), employers are likely permitted to (or required to in some states) require flu vaccination. Employers outside of these industries, however, face the challenge to articulate the basis (other than the general intention to keep the workplace safe) of the need for such a policy.

Read more at Greenwald Doherty

Survey of Supply Chain Pros Reveals Biggest Pandemic Concerns

According to a new survey by Supplyframe, 32% of surveyed supply chain professionals who work at North American medical supply companies anticipate it will take six to 12 months for global supply chains to return to full capacity for vaccine distribution.

A majority of respondents were concerned with how U.S.-China relations might impact supply chains: specifically, 82% worried that tariffs with China could impact the availability of personal protective equipment and medical devices, and 26% said medical gear will be more difficult to source. A fifth of respondents anticipate continued product shortages, and 30% said U.S. manufacturing capacity needs to be higher.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Cuomo: Eight Additional NYS Companies to Start Producing COVID-19 Related Equipment and Supplies to Support In-State Needs

Governor Cuomo Friday announced that eight additional State companies have received support from New York to produce needed supplies to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic. These grant funds will help alleviate product shortages due to supply chain issues that could lead to unfair pricing practices. These companies will also increase the State’s manufacturing capacity while creating new jobs and market opportunities. To date, more than $16 million in grants have been awarded to 28 qualifying New York-based companies to retool their business lines and pivot to manufacturing vital supplies for ongoing response and recovery efforts.

Read more and see the recipients

“Glocalisation” Opportunity Out of Crisis in Asia

While globalization may be under threat, so-called glocalisation looks set to resurge. In essence, to be “glocal” means making the most of both global and local resources—creating standalone ecosystems in individual markets.

By many accounts, the advent of COVID-19 promises to accelerate an end to the globalized world taken for granted in the 21st century. Boston Consulting Group (BCG), for example, forecasts global trade to drop by 20% in 2020 and doesn’t expect trade to return to the US$18trn recorded in 2019 until 2023. With supply chains thrown into chaos, countries are turning their gaze inwards with a new appreciation for self-sufficiency. Symbolic of this shift, the world’s two largest economies appear to be on a path to decouple their economies and technology ecosystems.

Read more at The Economist Intelligence Unit

Deeper Dive: Should Covid Be Left to Spread Among the Young and Healthy?

As new waves of covid-19 sweep the world, lockdowns are back in fashion. This time, though, they are a harder sell. They certainly save lives. But it is now clear that the lost jobs, the disruption to education and medical services, and the harm to mental health that they cause all exact tolls of their own—and these are paid not just in misery, but in deaths. Systems of “test and trace”, intended to stop those exposed to the virus from passing it on, seem to have worked in some places, but not in others.

In the absence of a vaccine, or of effective drug treatments, the question of how much longer this can go on for is thus being asked more insistently. And on October 4th a trio of public-health experts from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford universities put out a petition calling on governments to change course in a radical way.

Read more in The Economist

Daily Briefing – 176

NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.20%
• Orange Hot Zone: 5.32%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 2.02%
• Statewide: 1.20%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 0.96%

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

New York’s Cluster Update: Frequently Asked Questions

This week has brought some major changes to New York’s cluster action initiative. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has released guidance about how cluster zones are designated and how the cluster zone designation may be changed. Further, the Governor has updated the already-existing cluster zones and added new cluster zones. Bond Schoeneck and King attorneys discuss frequently asked questions about the clusters and updated maps for the cluster zones.

Read more at BSK

Talks Continue on Relief Package, Doubts Remain

Negotiators on both sides of the House pledged to continue talks to provide further coronavirus relief measures, despite opposition to the move from Senate Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has urged the White House to avoid reaching a deal before the election, while other Republican voices in the Senate played down the prospects for an agreement.

Read the full Story at CNN

Vaccine Trials Near Finish Line

In just a few weeks, we will begin to see results from late-stage trials for possible COVID-19 vaccines, A Amid all the challenges and chaos of the U.S. pandemic response, the vaccine development process has actually been relatively quick and smooth. Biopharmaceutical manufacturers and scientists have managed to move forward at an unprecedented speed, largely keeping politics out of the process and maintaining confidence in the eventual results. Ultimately, six different vaccine candidates have so far been developed, tested and scaled on a timeline that had previously been unthinkable.

Today, independent advisers to the Food and Drug Administration will meet to have their first formal discussion about whether and how they will recommend specific vaccines for use by the public. Those decisions will take place after the vaccine candidates complete their late-stage trials and are submitted for approval. The next big challenge—assuming at least one of the vaccine candidates is deemed successful—will be producing the astronomical number of vaccine doses that will be needed to inoculate the public in the United States and around the globe.

Read more at the Washington Post (subscription) 

Chappaqua’s Ishana Kumar, 12, Wins Top Award For Research Into ‘Imaginary Colors’

Ishana Kumar, 12, from Chappaqua, New York, won the coveted $25,000 Samueli Foundation Prize, the top award in the Broadcom MASTERS®, the nation’s premier science and engineering competition for middle school students.

Through her project, Ishana investigated whether retinal fatigue changes our perception of “imaginary colors,” an illusion of color most commonly seen from a spinning black and white disk, called a Benham’s disk. She had her subjects look at the Benham’s disk, and then stare at a red, blue or green light. Next, her subjects stared back at Benham’s disk, and determined whether the imaginary colors changed as a result of retinal fatigue, the phenomenon that occurs when someone stares at a brightly lit, colored area for a while. Ishana’s research could lead to a better understanding of eye disease, our neural pathways as well as both color and cognitive processing.

Listen to the story at NPR

Coronavirus Threatens to Push the Child-Care Industry Over the Edge

The coronavirus pandemic has plunged U.S. day cares into a financial crisis.  Child-care centers across the country—big chains, tiny in-home operations, nonprofits—are teetering. Enrollment slumped in the spring and never fully recovered. Extra expenses, like protective gear and deep cleaning, are piling up. By some estimates, some 40% of U.S. day cares are closed. Many of those that are open have half the number of children they did.

Lawmakers and economists are warning that many child-care providers will fail without government help. If that happens, parents who struggled to find a day-care slot before the pandemic would have to compete for even fewer spaces when it is over. Already, the pandemic is forcing many mothers out of the workforce, a decision likely to hurt their career prospects for years. And if parents can’t work, the economy can’t flourish.

Read more in the WSJ

SLC 2020 Q&A:  How Amazon Manages Risk with Better and Faster Data

Heather MacDougall, Amazon worldwide vice president of workplace health and safety, will speak at the at the 2020 Safety Leadership Conference, which takes place Nov. 10-12 virtually. She will discuss how Amazon is leveraging technology to keep workers at a growing network of fulfillment centers safe while meeting customer demand.

MacDougall previews her session, “Safety Technology: Using Innovation to Solve Challenges and Drive Improvement,” in a Q&A with EHS Today.

Read the Q&A at EHS Today

America After Covid: What Demographics Tell Us

The pre-pandemic migration from large American cities to the suburbs and small towns is continuing, write demographers Wendell Cox and Joel Kotkin. The most expensive cities, such as New York, will continue to be attractive but will also face competition from less expensive alternatives around the country, they argue.

Read the full story at Chief Executive online

Daily Briefing – 175

NYS Micro Cluster and Covid Update

• 20 Cluster zip codes: 6.61%
• Orange Red Zone (10 Day Average): 4.20%
• Rockland Red Zone (10 Day Average): 4.80%
• Statewide: 1.62%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.42%

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

Some Further Details on the  New York Paid Sick Leave Law Guidance from Harris Beach

On the Monday New York State released long-anticipated guidance on the state’s new Paid Sick Leave Law, or “PSL.” The new law is not limited to coronavirus-related situations. It is instead a new, permanent sick leave mandate for almost all businesses and non-profit employers in New York State. The guidance is available here.

The law functionally goes into effect on January 1, 2021. On that date, employees may start using Paid Sick Leave. As of September 30, however, employees were to begin “accruing” Paid Sick Leave at a rate of 1 hour of leave for every 30 hours worked. Employers should keep track of how much leave their employees will have accrued as of January 1. Alternatively, employers may choose to “frontload” employees’ Sick Leave allotment at the beginning of the year.

Read more from Harris Beach 

Coronavirus Stimulus Talks Make Progress 

White House and Democratic negotiators said they would press ahead with efforts to reach a sweeping coronavirus relief deal after making progress Tuesday, even as the prospect of a roughly $2 trillion package sparked opposition from Senate Republicans.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) had indicated that she hoped to pin the White House down on enough issues by the end of the day Tuesday to be able to determine whether a deal could be passed before the Nov. 3 election. After Tuesday’s discussion, both sides said they were willing to continue their discussions without decisively establishing whether a deal will be possible.

Read more in the WSJ

Meanwhile… The Senate Takes Up $500 Billion Package

The Republican-controlled Senate on Wednesday will take up a $500 billion COVID-19 stimulus package, a bill unlikely to make it out of the Senate as relief negotiations drag on less than two weeks before Election Day.

The bill would give a federal boost to weekly unemployment benefits, send over $100 billion to schools, and allocate funding for testing and vaccine development. Democrats are expected to block the legislation, arguing more money is needed to combat the virus and help Americans.  Its $500 billion price tag is far less than the roughly $1.8 trillion package the White House has offered and the $2.2 trillion package Democrats have backed. The two parties have spent months attempting to find a bipartisan agreement for one last batch of coronavirus stimulus relief before the election. 

Read more in USA Today

Single-Family Homebuilding Increases

U.S. single-family homebuilding raced to a more than 13-year high in September, cementing the housing market’s status as the star of the economic recovery amid record-low mortgage rates and a migration to the suburbs and low-density areas in search of more room for home offices and schooling.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed building permits and housing completions scaling levels last seen in 2007. That could help to ease an acute shortage of homes for sale, which has fueled house price inflation.  The data reinforced expectations that the economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter after suffering its deepest contraction in at least 73 years in the second quarter.

Read More are Reuters

Meanwhile… Mortgage Demand Falls for the Fourth Straight Week

Homebuyer demand is incredibly strong compared with last year, but there appears to be a slight pullback this month.  A drop in buyer demand caused total mortgage application volume to fall 0.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

Applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week, the fourth straight week of declines. Purchase demand is down nearly 7% compared with four weeks ago. Volume, however, is still 26% higher than one year ago. The drop may be seasonal, although not much has conformed to normal patterns in the year of Covid-19. It may be more a factor of the incredibly low supply of homes for sale. Inventory continues to set record lows, especially at the entry level of the market.

Read more at CNBC

DOD Researchers Collaborate on Universal Antibody Test for COVID-19

Researchers from the U.S. Army Futures Command, in collaboration with Houston Methodist, Pennsylvania State University, and UT Austin, tested alternative ways to measure COVID-19 antibody level resulting in a process that is faster, easier and less expensive to use on a large scale. Their method holds promise for accurately identifying potential donors who have the best chance of helping infected patients through convalescent plasma therapy.

Read more at Global Biodefense

How Pfizer Plans to Distribute Coronavirus Vaccines

Pfizer has spent roughly $2 billion developing a coronavirus vaccine and is setting up its logistics network to ensure speedy distribution if the vaccine receives authorization. The drugmaker’s logistics plan involves reusable frozen containers, along with cargo planes and trucks to handle the delivery of up to 100 million doses this year and 1.3 billion next year.

Read the full story at the WSJ

Big Ten Football, The Midwest and COVID-19

With the first Big Ten football games scheduled for this weekend, Johns Hopkins looks at the current state of the COVID-19 epidemic in these states compared to where they were on August 11 when the season was originally put on hold. In mid-August, most of the states that are home to Big Ten Schools were beginning to come down from the peak of their respective summer COVID-19 surges. Since that time, however, nearly every one of these states has reported increased COVID-19 incidence.

Notably, all except Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have reported new record high daily incidence since the first announcement in August. Additionally, Wisconsin and Nebraska are currently reporting higher per capita daily incidence than New Jersey did at its first peak in April. Most of the Big Ten states are also reporting increased test positivity since August. 

Read More at Johns Hopkins

Daily Briefing – 174

Two States added to Restricted States List, Non-Essential Between Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania Discouraged

Governor Cuomo yesterday announced that Arizona and Maryland have been added to New York’s COVID-19 travel advisory. No areas have been removed. 43 states meet the criteria for requiring individuals who have traveled to New York to quarantine for 14 days. The quarantine applies to any person arriving from an area with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or an area with a 10 percent or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average. 

Neighboring states Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania now meet the criteria for the travel advisory, however, given the interconnected nature of the region and mode of transport between us, a quarantine on these states is not practically viable. That said, New York State highly discourages, to the extent practical, non-essential travel to and from these states while they meet the travel advisory criteria. 

• Read the press release
• See the restricted states

Cuomo: “Hot Spot” Numbers Improve

• 20 hotspot zip codes: 2.9%
• Orange Hot Zone: 6.00%
• Rockland Hot Zone: 1.99%
• Statewide: 1.3%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.2%

• Read the press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your site address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

In Advance of “Deadline” Pelosi and Mnuchin Make Progress in Stimulus Talks

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made progress in their latest coronavirus stimulus talks Monday as time runs short to reach a deal before the 2020 election.

In a nearly one-hour phone call, the pair “continued to narrow their differences,” the California Democrat’s spokesman, Drew Hammill, said in a tweeted statement. Pelosi has directed House committee chairs to work to resolve areas of disagreement with the White House, and the speaker and Mnuchin plan to talk again Tuesday, Hammill added.

Read more at CNBC

NYS Paid Sick Leave Guidance and FAQ

The New York State Department of Labor has released guidelines and FAQs for the paid sick leave law enacted earlier this year. The guidance addresses several issues including: the amount of leave employees are eligible to receive, accrual calculations, employee eligibility to participate in the program, permitted uses for paid leave, existing employer programs, and retaliation against employees for use of paid sick leave.

All private-sector employees in New York State are covered, regardless of industry, occupation, part-time status, and overtime exempt status. Federal, state, and local government employees are not covered, but employees of charter schools, private schools, and not-for-profit corporations are covered.

• The full guidance is available here
• The FAQs are available here.

OSHA Announces $1,222,156 In Coronavirus Violations

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic through Oct. 8, 2020, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has cited 85 establishments for violations relating to coronavirus, resulting in proposed penalties totaling $1,222,156.

OSHA inspections have resulted in the agency citing employers for violations, including failures to:

• Implement a written respiratory protection program;
• Provide a medical evaluation, respirator fit test, training on the proper use of a respirator and personal protective equipment;
• Report an injury, illness or fatality;
• Record an injury or illness on OSHA recordkeeping forms; and
• Comply with the General Duty Clause of the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970

Read more at OSHA.gov

Atlanta Fed’s Bostic Says Recovery Threatened By Permanent Layoffs

It will be a while before the U.S. economy is fully recovered and before the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or remove the support it is providing financial markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Monday.

“On balance, I am comfortable with our current policy stance,” Bostic said in remarks prepared for a virtual event organized for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Annual Meeting. “As I have detailed today, though the U.S. economy continues to show clear signs of recovery, there remain significant portions where the recovery has been weak or nonexistent.”

Read more at Reuters

New York’s Private Jobs Rebound Still Trails Most of U.S.

The Empire Center’s E.J. McMahon reports that as of September, New York’s private job count was down 12.1 percent from the same month in 2019, based on non-seasonally adjusted BLS and state Labor Department data.

The Empire State’s year-to-year decrease was almost double the national decline of 6.9 percent. Only one other state—tourism-intensive Hawaii—was further below its 2019 employment level, with a decline of 21.5 percent. As shown on the map in the article, Alaska and Vermont were the only other states with double-digit percentage declines in employment on a year-to-year basis.

Read more from the Empire Center

CDC Releases New COVID-19 Vaccine Specific Web Content

The CDC has added vaccine-specific content to its COVID-19 website. CDC’s new resources include information on vaccination planning, how vaccine safety is being ensured, and frequently asked questions. These resources are intended to clarify how COVID-19 vaccine recommendations will be made and how the vaccines will be monitored for safety, in order to build trust and confidence in future COVID-19 vaccines.

The CDC anticipates making frequent updates to this website, as well as CDC’s Vaccination and Immunization website, as more information becomes available and as vaccines become authorized or approved and recommended for use in the United States.

Read more at NACCHO 

DOD, HHS Name Partners to Administer COVID-19 Vaccines in Long-Term Care Facilities

Last Friday, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) named Walgreens and CVS as nationwide partners in the effort. Long-term care facilities will be able to sign up to have either CVS or Walgreens come to their locations to administer COVID-19 vaccinations to residents and staff. The program is free of charge to facilities, and is opt-in only.

“We are not imposing the solution on any nursing home,” Mango said. “This is voluntary, they have to opt in. This is an adjunct to what other solutions may be, but this will be something that will be available to every nursing home and senior living facility in the country.”

Read more at the DOD

GM Announces $2 Billion to Retrofit Tennessee Plant for Electric Cadillac

Spring Hill Manufacturing in Tennessee will join General Motor Co.’s Michigan plants in Detroit-Hamtramck and Orion Township as the company’s third electric vehicle plant. In a statement released October 20, GM said it would invest $2 billion in Spring Hill and a combined $152.5 million of investments on plants in Michigan.

The Spring Hill Assembly Plant, which currently produces two Cadillacs, will add a third to its production, the electric Cadillac Lyriq. The factory will build both the traditional XT6 and XT5 Cadillacs in addition to the new electric luxury model. According to GM, the renovation work at Spring Hill will include comprehensive upgrades to general assembly and major expansions of the paint and body shops, which will “begin immediately.”

Read more in IndustryWeek

Daily Briefing – 172

Cuomo Outlines New Micro-Cluster Strategy to Tackle COVID-19 Hot Spots – Numbers for Covid and Clusters

The micro-cluster strategy is predicated on three principles: refined detection, specific and calibrated mitigation, and focused enforcement.  There are currently “micro-clusters” in Brooklyn and Queens, as well as Rockland and Orange Counties. 

Using New York State’s approach to track cases by address with the help of nation-leading levels of testing, the State will identify outbreaks and implement mitigation measures tailored to the precise areas where outbreaks occur. The State will implement rules and restrictions directly targeted to areas with the highest concentration of COVID cases, known as red zones, and put in place less severe restrictions in surrounding communities, known as orange and yellow zones that serve as a buffer to ensure the virus does not spread beyond the central focus area. Enhanced focused testing and enforcement will follow.

Read the press release

Here are the positivity rates from 10/17

• Summary of positivity rates:20 hotspot zip codes: 3.19%
• Orange Red Zone: 1.04%
• Rockland Red Zone: 2.22%
• Statewide: 1.08%
• Statewide excluding hotspots: 100%

Here are some other useful links

• Read the daily press release (includes hot spot zip codes)
• See the cluster maps
• Check your address (State will ask to track your location)
• See the school districts dashboard 
• See the SUNY Dashboard

Movie Theaters Outside of NYC Can Reopen October 23, Ski Centers Can Reopen this Season Too

Governor Cuomo announced that theaters in counties outside of NYC with positivity rates of less than 2% can reopen at 25% capacity, with no more than 50 people per screen.  Governor Cuomo also announced that ski resorts can reopen beginning November 6th with 50 percent indoor capacity and strict compliance with state health and safety protocols.

• Read the movie press release
• Read the ski resort press release

Fed: US Manufacturing Output Dips in September, August Number Revised Up

The Federal Reserve reported U.S. factory production unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting that manufacturing’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was slowing heading into the fourth quarter.

Manufacturing production dropped 0.3% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Data for August was revised up to show to output at factories increasing 1.2% instead of 1.0% as previously reported. Factory production remains 6.4% below its pre-pandemic level. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast manufacturing output would rise 0.7% in September.

Read more at Reuters

NY Fed Survey: Businesses Anticipate Modest Price Increases in Year Ahead

Supplementary questions to the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Business Leaders Survey focused on recent and expected changes in the prices paid by firms and in the prices they receive. Businesses were also asked for their estimate of overall inflation (as measured by the consumer price index, or CPI) over the next year. Some of these questions had been asked in surveys conducted in December 2019 and earlier.

In the current survey manufacturers reported an average rise of 3.6 percent over the past year and expect the rate to accelerate slightly to 3.9 percent over the next twelve months. In addition to these point estimates, respondents were also asked to gauge the likelihood that the prices they paid overall would increase or decrease within certain specified ranges. The average respondent reported a roughly two in three chance that the prices they paid would rise by 8 percent or less. Price hikes of 2-8 percent were seen as more likely than increases of 0-2 percent. Service firms, on average, reported that declines
in prices paid were more likely than increases of 8 percent or more, while manufacturers indicated the reverse.

Read the full report

U.S. Retail Spending Picked Up Strongly in September

Retail sales increased in September for the fifth month in a row, as consumers prepared for further months of working and studying from home by spending strongly on vehicles, sporting goods and at home-improvement stores. Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday.

“These are really blowout numbers, said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a consulting firm.

Read more at the WSJ

Pfizer Plans to Seek Authorization for COVID-19 Vaccine in November

Pfizer confirmed Friday it expects to seek emergency authorization of its experimental vaccine against Covid-19, if it is effective, in the third week of November.

An analysis of the efficacy of the vaccine could be available sooner, the company said in an open letter from its CEO, Albert Bourla, but required safety data will take longer. The timelines included in the letter are not new, based on disclosures the company has previously made about the status of its vaccine effort with the German biotechnology firm BioNTech. But the need for Bourla, who had previously said a vaccine could be available by October, to make a public announcement emphasizes the tense political conditions surrounding the race for a vaccine.

Read more at Statnews

Hudson Valley Region September Job Numbers

The September 2020 over-the-year job losses continue to reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.  At 727,200, private sector job count has reached its lowest September level since 2010.  Meanwhile, the over-the-month change – a gain of 5,700, reflects the reopening of the economy.  The historical average over-the-month change between August and September is a loss of 3,000.

For the 12-month period ending September 2020, the private sector job count in the Hudson Valley fell by 86,600, or 10.6 percent, to 727,200.  Job losses were centered in leisure and hospitality (-33,600), trade, transportation and utilities (-14,500), professional and business services (-10,600), educational and health services (-9,200), other services (-8,600), natural resources, mining and construction (-5,100), manufacturing (-3,800), and financial activities (-1,000).

There were 39,300 manufacturing Jobs in the Valley in September 2020 down 3,800 from September 2019 and 100 from the previous month 

Labor Market Profile Hudson Valley SEP 2020

DiNapoli: New York State Ranks Second Nationally in Jobs Lost

While all states have lost employment since the COVID-19 pandemic struck earlier this year, the average state experienced job losses of 7.6 % during the pandemic, New York lost 12.8%.  New York surpasses almost every other state in both number and percentage of job losses. From February through August 2020, the Empire State ranks second to Hawaii in percentage of employment decline and second only to California in the total number. During that same period, unemployment in the State rose from 3.7 percent to 12.5 percent, based on preliminary estimates.

Read more at the Controller’s website  

The Reasons Behind America’s New Wave of Lay-Offs

The jobs picture is likely to get worse before it gets better. The pandemic is the proximate cause, but the deeper driver is bosses preparing for a new economy. David Garfield of AlixPartners, an advisory firm, reckons if companies must make do with only 70-90% of historical sales, as may happen with an anemic recovery, they cannot survive without “major restructuring”. Mr. Garfield believes firms must reduce complexity if they want to build resilience into supply and distribution networks. 

Bain, another consultancy, sees American companies “retooling for the new normal” by ploughing $5trn-10trn over the next decade into automation. This may kill old-fashioned jobs in the short term, but create new, tech-savvy ones over time.  “This is your moment to strike as chief executive if you want a dramatic change in market share,” says Hernan Saenz of Bain.

Read more in The Economist

China’s Economy Accelerates – GDP Plus 4.9 Percent

Growth in the world’s second-largest economy accelerated to 4.9% over a year earlier in the three months ending in September, up from the previous quarter’s 3.2%, official data showed Monday. Retail spending rebounded to above pre-virus levels for the first time and factory output rose, boosted by demand for exports of masks and other medical supplies.

China is the only major economy that is expected to grow this year while activity in the United States, Europe and Japan shrinks.  The recovery is “broadening out and becoming less reliant” on government stimulus, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report. He said growth is “still accelerating” heading into the present quarter.

Read more at the AP