Post: Aug. 8, 2022
Senate Passes Democrats’ Climate, Healthcare and Tax Bill
The Senate passed a bill spending hundreds of billions of dollars on climate and healthcare programs while raising taxes on large, profitable companies, as Democrats unified around elements of President Biden’s agenda after a year of frustrated efforts to advance a broader package.
The legislation, which passed the Senate 51-50 on Sunday with a tiebreaking vote by Vice President Kamala Harris, …
Post: Jul. 27, 2022
GDP Fell at 0.9% Annual Rate in Second Quarter
The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.9% annual rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That marks a second straight quarterly decline in gross domestic product–a common definition of recession. Inflation hit a fresh four-decade high during the second quarter, hammering consumer sentiment and eroding Americans’ purchasing power. The Federal Reserve responded by aggressively raising …
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The IMF Warns that a Global Recession Could Soon be at Hand
In an update of the World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. said economic prospects had darkened significantly in recent months as war in Ukraine, inflation and a resurgent pandemic inflicted pain on every continent. If the thicket of threats continues to intensify, the world economy faces one of its weakest years since 1970, a period of intense stagflation across the globe.
The I.M.F. downgraded its …
Post: Jul. 25, 2022
Dems Make Another Push to Pass their Agenda Before August Recess
Congress nears the close of a packed legislative session this week, aiming to pass legislation providing about $54 billion to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing while also juggling a raft of other bills ahead of the monthlong August recess. The priority for both Republican and Democratic leaders is passing the long-stalled semiconductor package.
Along with the bipartisan bill subsidizing chips, …
Post: Jul. 24, 2022
Supply Chain: Truckers Block Oakland Port to Protest a California Labor Law
Independent truckers who have been protesting at California’s busy Oakland seaport over the past week against a new state law known as the “gig-worker” law took a break on Saturday, when the port business slowed to a crawl. Operations at the Northern California port ground to a near standstill after protesters used pickets and tractor-trailers to block terminal gates. But some …
Post: Jul. 20, 2022
U.S. Home Sales Fell Again in June, But Prices Kept Rising
U.S. existing home sales fell for a fifth straight month in June to the lowest level in two years, as fast-rising interest rates and record-high selling prices make buying a home too expensive for a growing share of American households. In June, sales of previously owned homes fell 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million units, the lowest level since June 2020. Sales have now fallen …
Post: Jul. 19, 2022
Chipmakers Get Their $54 billion in CHIPS Act Government Subsidies—But it Comes With Strings Attached
The Senate backed by 64 to 34 a procedural measure setting the stage for potential votes to pass the legislation in the Senate and House of Representatives by the end of next week. The Bill authorizes about $54 billion in grants and loans for chip manufacturers, as well as a new, four-year 25% investment tax credit for chip making.
Semiconductor companies have been torn over how to perceive the …
Post: Jul. 18, 2022
NY DOL Assessing Surcharge on SUI Wages
As a result of COVID-19, the New York Department of Labor (DOL) paid more than $110 billion in unemployment and pandemic unemployment benefits between March 2020 and September 2021 depleting the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund. New York state borrowed $9.2 billion from the federal government to maintain UI and pandemic benefits while the COVID-19 programs were in effect. State law requires …
Post: Jul. 17, 2022
Empire State Manufacturing Survey – Modest Growth in July, Pessimism for the Future
Manufacturing activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to the July survey. The general business conditions index climbed twelve points to 11.1. However, firms now expect activity to decline over the next six months, a sentiment only expressed three other times in the survey’s history. The index for future business conditions plunged twenty points to -6.2. The capital spending …
Post: Jul. 13, 2022
9.1% – Inflation Rose Even More Than Expected in June, as Consumer Pressures Intensify
The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked the fastest pace for inflation going back to November 1981. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI increased 5.9%, compared with the 5.7% estimate. Core inflation peaked at 6.5% in March and has …
Post: Jul. 12, 2022
Pattern For Progress: IRS Data Show Hudson Valley Saw Net Gain from Migration for First Time in More Than a Decade
Pattern for Progress yesterday released a special report that analyzes the migration of people into the Hudson Valley, and out of the region, during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Data show that the Hudson Valley experienced a net gain from migration for the first time in more than a decade, including a net gain of 33,394 residents from the five boroughs of New York City. A total of 48,642 …
Post: Jul. 11, 2022
Schumer Making Last-Ditch Bid to Pass Reconciliation Bill this Summer
Schumer and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have made progress on proposals to lower the cost of prescription drugs, extend Medicare’s solvency and raise taxes on some high-income earners. Manchin and Schumer have worked out a proposal to impose a 3.8 percent tax on individuals earning more than $400,000 and couples earning more than $500,000 from pass-through businesses and will give …
Post: Jul. 10, 2022
Manufacturing Achieves Pre-Pandemic Employment Levels After Months of Incremental Gains
Manufacturing companies in the U.S. added 29,000 jobs last month, slightly beating the sector’s last pre-pandemic employment numbers in February 2020. Nondurable goods manufacturing companies notably added more workers than the larger durable goods sector last month. Durable goods companies, which now employ about 7.9 million people, added 11,000 jobs in July; Nondurable goods industries added …
Post: Jul. 6, 2022
JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Higher than Expected in May, Mfg Openings Fall by 136K
The number of job openings throughout the economy fell to 11.3 million at the end of May, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, data published Wednesday morning. That landed above the median estimate of 11 million openings from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It also marks the second month in a row of declines. The report reveals little improvement in matching workers …
Post: Jul. 5, 2022
U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased more than expected in May, bucking a slew of recent data showing a softening in the economy and underscoring that demand for products remains strong. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that factory orders rose 1.6% in May after advancing 0.7% in April.
In May, there were increases in orders for primary metals, machinery and transportation equipment, …
Post: Jul. 4, 2022
ISM Manufacturing PMI Slumps to 53 in June
The business activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded at a much softer pace in June than it did in May with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping to 53 from 56.1. This print came in weaker than the market expectation of 54.9. Further details of the publication showed that Employment Index declined to 47.3 from 49.6 and New Orders Index fell to 49.2 from 55.1. Finally, Prices Paid Index dropped …
Post: Jun. 29, 2022
Powell Says Fed Must Accept Higher Recession Risk to Combat Inflation
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was more concerned about the risk of failing to stamp out high inflation than about the possibility of raising interest rates too high and pushing the economy into a recession. “Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly there’s a risk,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “The bigger mistake to make—let’s put it that way—would be to fail …
Post: Jun. 28, 2022
NYS Primary – Hochul to Face Zeldin for Governor, Delgado Will Be Dem Lt. Gove Candidate
New Yorkers headed to the polls Tuesday to vote in the primary contests for governor, lieutenant governor and state Assembly. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Gov. Kathy Hochul handily won against a pair of challengers to earn a full term in office. On the other side of the aisle, Rep. Lee Zeldin (41%) defeated former White House staffer Andrew Giuliani ( 23%), businessman Harry Wilson …
Post: Jun. 27, 2022
Core Capital Goods Orders, Shipments Increase Strongly
New orders for U.S.-made capital goods and shipments increased solidly in May. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. These so-called core capital goods orders gained 0.3% in April. Orders were boosted by strong demand for machinery, primary metals as well as computers …
Post: Jun. 26, 2022
IMF Slashes U.S. Growth Forecast, Sees ‘Narrowing Path’ to Avoid Recession
The International Monetary Fund on Friday slashed its U.S. economic growth forecast as aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes cool demand but predicted that the United States would “narrowly” avoid a recession. In an annual assessment of U.S. economic policies, the IMF said it now expects U.S. Gross Domestic Product to grow 2.9% in 2022, less than its most recent forecast of …
Post: Jun. 22, 2022
Powell Testimony: Fed Chair Says Higher Interest Rates Could Cause a Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank’s battle against inflation could lead it to raise interest rates high enough to cause an economic downturn. “It’s certainly a possibility,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday during the first of two days of congressional hearings. “We are not trying to provoke and do not think we will need to provoke a recession, but we do think it’s …
Post: Jun. 21, 2022
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index Fell Again in May
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.4 percent in May 2022 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in April 2022. The LEI is now down 0.4 percent over the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022. “The US LEI fell again in May, fueled by tumbling stock prices, a slowdown in housing construction, and gloomier consumer expectations,” …
Post: Jun. 20, 2022
China Studying ‘Extraordinary’ Support for Manufacturers: Report
China is planning “extraordinary new policies to help downstream industrial firms that have seen their profits hit by the high cost of raw materials,” according to Shanghai Securities News. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is studying measures to enhance the structure of supply-side policies, boost consumer demand and incentivize investments in technology, the newspaper said …
Post: Jun. 19, 2022
NAM Survey: Inflation, Recession Signs Worry Manufacturing Leaders, But Optimism Remains
The National Association of Manufacturers Q2 2022 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey shows manufacturers’ significant concerns around recession, inflation, hiring and China competition legislation. The NAM conducted the survey May 17–31, 2022. Here are some key Findings:
- 59.3% of manufacturing leaders believed inflationary pressures would make a recession more likely in the next 12 months.
- Increased raw material costs topped the list of primary business challenges in the second quarter, cited by 90.1% of respondents.
- Three-quarters of manufacturers felt inflationary pressures were worse today than six months ago.
- The top sources of inflation were increased raw material prices (97.2%), freight and transportation costs (83.9%), wages and salaries (79.5%) and energy costs (55.9%), with 49.4% also citing a shortage of available workers.
- When asked about what aspects of the China competition legislation were most important for supporting manufacturing activity, 70.9% of respondents cited addressing port congestion and competition issues in shipping.
- Despite ongoing economic headwinds, manufacturers remain largely optimistic, with 82.6% of respondents maintaining a positive outlook for their company.
Read more at the NAM
War in Ukraine Headlines
U.S. Industrial Production Eased in May, Adding to Signs of Economic Slowdown
Total industrial production moved up 0.2 percent in May, Output has increased in every month of the year …
Post: Jun. 15, 2022
Fed Raises Rates By 0.75 Percentage Point, Largest Increase Since 1994
The Federal Reserve approved the largest interest rate increase since 1994 and signaled it would continue lifting rates this year at the most rapid pace in decades as it races to slow the economy and combat inflation. Officials agreed to a 0.75-percentage-point rate rise at their two-day policy meeting that concluded Wednesday, which will increase the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate to a range …
