HSBC Predicts Trade Increase for 2016


With the world merchandise trade projected to have risen a mere 1%, you would think US businesses would be pessimistic about what the first six months of 2016 have in store for it. Yet according to data forecasts from Council member HSBC Global Connections, just the opposite is true. The HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast has found that 77% of U.S. business leaders expect trade volumes to increase in the short term, well above the global average of 64%. US manufacturing production, particularly in investment goods, appears poised to take advantage of the expected recovery in foreign demand over the next five years.

Reflecting US expertise in high-end manufacturing and continued investment in technological innovation, machinery and transport equipment are set to play the biggest role in driving long-term growth in US merchandise exports. With the report predicting they contribute close to 45% of the projected increase in the decade to 2030. Export growth of machinery and other manufactures (a category that, according to HSBC’s definition, includes cyclical sectors such as metals, but also scientific instruments) is also projected.