Reopening Schools – A Case For
Why Schools Should Reopen This Fall
The usual reason offered is that children need the psychological, social, and education benefits from in-person learning that virtual learning can’t adequately replicate. I offer another: By keeping kids out of school, we are hurting their later-life economic outcomes.
A consensus estimate among economists is that an additional year of schooling increases wages by around 9%. If last spring and this fall should be written off, then keeping the schools closed may lead to a significant reduction in future earnings for today’s students. My back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that represents a loss of over $30,000 per decade in earnings for a typical worker who graduated high school but didn’t attend college. The longer schools are closed, the larger the hit future earnings will take.
Furthermore, keeping schools closed again this fall will hurt the future earnings of today’s lower-income kids the most. In addition, the damage this is doing to the careers of parents is likely cumulative.
Reopening Schools – A Case Against
Schools Should not Open Until Safety is Assured
Local districts don’t have the necessary resources or capacity to maintain even the most basic prevention measures of six feet physical distancing and limiting contacts. “We should be clear eyed about this reality,” wrote CTA president Toby Boyd. “How can we physically reopen schools with lower thresholds of safety than we currently have for restaurants or hair salons?”
They said that teachers want to be back in class with their students, “but we cannot ignore science facts and safety.” The preferred model, they suggested, would be “to start the new school year under robust distance learning protocols until the virus is contained in local communities and proper safety measures can be put into place.”
PPP Forgiveness Webinar from PKF O’Conner Davies
Council of Industry partner Hudson Valley Economic Development Corporation hosted a webinar yesterday (July 9th) on PPP forgiveness. The webinar was presented by Council of Industry Associate Member PKF O’Conner Davies.
Update on the Impact of New York Travel Restrictions on Employers
Our Friends and Associate Members Bond Schoeneck and King write that on July 2, 2020, the New York Department of Health (DOH) published Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) regarding the travel restrictions imposed by Executive Order 205 (EO 205) and Guidance issued by DOH on June 24, 2020, both effective on June 25, 2020.
The FAQs begin by reinforcing several points made by EO 205 and the Original Guidance. Specifically, the FAQs confirm that EO 205 is not applicable to individuals arriving in New York prior to June 25, 2020, or those who spent less than 24 hours in a designated state. They also set forth the same nine restrictions applicable to individuals in quarantine, ranging from restrictions on food delivery to requirements for separate living quarters. It is clear that this 14-day quarantine applies to all non-essential employees, whether they are New York residents or simply visitors to the State.
The FAQs also clarify that an employee who has traveled to a restricted state cannot return to work even if the employee has tested negative for COVID-19 after returning to New York.
NAM Global Economic Update: Global Economy Starts to Rebound, but with Lingering Challenges
Economist Chad Moutray reports that the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rebounded for the second straight month, rising to its strongest reading since January. Overall, the sector continues to stabilize in most economies, even as activity remains contractionary and challenges persist worldwide due to COVID-19 and the severe worldwide recession. Manufacturers are cautiously optimistic for stronger output over the next six months.
Sentiment among the top 10 markets for U.S.-manufactured goods improved in every economy in June, with four markets expanding, up from just one (China) in May. These major trading partners have continued to steady after plummeting in April to levels that were either the worst since the Great Recession or at record lows.
German Exports Rebounded Less than Expected
German exports jumped by 9% in May, new figures showed. The increase, however, was lower than that expected by a panel of economists polled by Reuters. Germany’s economy is highly dependent on exports, particularly of high-tech manufactured goods. As foreign markets are hit by the pandemic, the German government is trying to do more to stimulate domestic demand.
Airline and Aircraft Industry News
Rolls Royce: A trading statement today by Rolls-Royce gives an insight into how badly it has battered a company that relies on making the engines hanging from the wings of widebodied planes. In good times, Rolls’s services model—selling “power by the hour”, rather than selling engines outright—ensures a steady stream of income. Rolls thinks flight hours will be down by about 55% this year and expects a cash outflow of £4bn. Rolls, in the midst of a restructuring as the virus struck, has already cut 9,000 jobs to save cash and will hope that predictions that long-haul travel could take years to recover are exaggerated. The company will also hope that its defense and power business, which accounted for 40% of revenues and the bulk of profits in 2019, remains more buoyant than aviation.
United Airlines: The Company told 36,000 pilots, flight attendants and customer-service employees that they may be furloughed. If the cuts are carried out in full, that would represent around 40% of its staff. The American carrier has had to contend with the near total collapse in demand for air travel. It says it could rehire staff once demand returns—currently a distant prospect.
How Supply Chain Mapping Can Help Companies
Improved supply chain resilience starts with mapping factors such as materials, finished goods and the countries involved in importing and exporting, as well as considering risk by categories such as labor and global trade rules, writes Anne van de Heetkamp of Descartes. “Reference data as well as supply chain mapping are both dynamic, which means vulnerabilities change accordingly — ideally because appropriate action is taken to address them,” she writes.
OSHA COVID-19 Guidance Advises Wearing Masks in Workplace
Jackson Lewis, friend and Associate Member of the Council of Industry, write “Consistent with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations, OSHA advises employers to encourage workers to wear cloth face coverings while at work. OSHA also recommends maintaining social distancing in the workplace, even when workers wear cloth face coverings.”
They also discuss other face covering issues including whether a respiratory protection program required.
Main Street Lending Program
The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has published a state-by-state listing of lenders participating in the Main Street Lending Program that are currently accepting applications from potential Main Street borrowers. The Boston Fed plans to update the list on a regular basis as additional lenders are approved.