Mid-Hudson Enters Phase Four Today (July 7th)
The Mid-Hudson region open to phase four today. Governor Cuomo has said that phase four is fluid in both what industries are included and what timelines those industries will follow. At this time, phase four industries include higher education, low risk indoor and outdoor arts and entertainment, media production, and professional sports without fans.
Governor’s Update on Schools Reopening…. No Decision Yet
At a press conference this morning the Governor sand that, at this time, there has been no determination made regarding whether schools will reopen this fall. The Governor stressed that the State will not send children back to school until it is safe. He stated that this is a fluid situation, and there is still time to collect data before making a decision. The State has directed all school districts to submit a reopening plan to prepare, but emphasized it does not mean they can reopen just because they have a plan.
The Department of Health, in conjunction with the Reimagine Education Council, will issue guidance on the reopening of schools later this month.
The Governor also announced that the State Fair in Syracuse has been cancelled.
Reminder, NYS COVID-19 Dashboard a Useful Tool to Track Local Spread
The state tool can be a bit challenging to navigate, however, it offers up to date statewide, regional and countywide information on cases, hospitalizations, deaths, testing and more.
Monday Economic Report – Economy Bounces Back Strongly – But a Full Recovery Will Take Time
With the beginning of the second half of 2020, the data last week continued to show a bounce back in economic activity in May and June after sharp declines in the spring months due to COVID-19 and the global recession. These data represent an encouraging sign, and yet, we must also note a couple of caveats.
- The depth of the downturn was severe—either the worst since the Great Recession or on record, depending on the indicator. These conditions will make it more difficult to get back to pre-recession levels.
- We have experienced spikes in COVID-19 cases recently, which could impact the pace of reopenings for many businesses and consumers’ willingness to resume “normal” activities and spending. These factors also could dampen growth in forthcoming data.
DOL: Manufacturing Added 365,000 Jobs in June
According to the latest employment situation report released by the Department of Labor, total nonfarm employment in the United States rose by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell 2.2 points to 11.1%. Manufacturing added 356,000 new jobs, mostly in durable goods. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the reopening of the economy after quarantine orders were allowed to expire in April and May contributed to the influx.
Jobs in durable manufacturing making motor vehicles and parts saw gains of 196,000, constituting almost two-thirds of manufacturing jobs gained in June. Miscellaneous durable good manufacturing and machinery accounted for 26,000 and 18,000 new jobs, respectively. The best-performing division of nondurable manufacturing, plastics and rubber products, saw 22,000 new jobs.
Service Sector in U.S. Shows Signs of Recovery
An index of service activity compiled by data firm IHS Markit registered 47.9 in June, up from 37.5 in May. The reading suggests that while economic activity in the U.S. services sector continues to contract, it is doing so at a slower pace. A separate index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management posted 57.1 in June, the first month-over-month expansion following two straight months of contraction.
Businesses in both surveys reported last month that demand had started to stabilize and that exports were starting to pick up. The pace of job cuts slowed with some companies starting to hire again. Prices rose, another sign of renewed demand. Survey respondents also said they were increasingly optimistic about the outlook, even though overall business confidence remains subdued.
Global Business Barometer: Survive / Adapt / Recover
Based on an online survey of 2,758 executives from 118 countries, fielded May 2020, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ask questions ranging from their outlook on the global economy and investment plans to operational and risk management strategies. The Survey reveals that a majority of global executives still believe the firms they manage—and the economies in which they operate—are in the survival phase. Even a marked improvement in sentiment about the three-month outlook for the global economy only brought the barometer reading on that indicator to -27.7, a long way from optimism (the barometer ranges from -50 to + 50).
Study: The Impact of the Pandemic on HR Policy
A survey by Human Resources Director found 72% of employers have increased work from home opportunities, with 66% offering remote working options as long as the pandemic lasts. Other policies that have changed include implementing social distancing in the workplace — 38% — and restricting travel, 26%.
Trump Signs Extension for Paycheck Protection Program
On July 4, President Trump signed a bill extending the period for an eligible business to apply for a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. The new legislation extends the deadline for obtaining approval of a PPP loan from the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) from June 30, 2020, to August 8, 2020.
According to the SBA’s loan report released on July 6, 2020, over $134 billion remained available through June 27, 2020, of the $659 billion earmarked for the program. Borrowers of PPP loans have 24 weeks to expend funds on qualifying costs and may be eligible for forgiveness up to 100% of the loan amount.