Daily Briefing – 414
“Caution, Not Panic” – What to Know About the Omicron Variant
If there is one lesson the covid-19 pandemic has taught the world, it is that acting early pays off. Wait a week for better data on which to base a decision and you can find yourself down a path of no return, with cases rising steeply. There is too little research to draw conclusions, with experts urging caution but not panic. Studies are underway to examine how vaccines hold up against the new variant, with some experts expressing initial optimism that they will offer protection. Officials in South Africa said most of those hospitalized with omicron had not gotten immunized.
The concerns with Omicron are indeed many. The biggest is that it may have the ability to spread more easily than Delta. If so, Omicron could supplant Delta within months. In that case, Omicron would cause bigger outbreaks that flare up faster than Delta and are harder to stop. Another worry is that today’s vaccines and drugs against covid may be less potent against Omicron and may therefore need to be redesigned.
The Washington Post (COVID Coverage is Free) Offers a Good Summary
New York Declares COVID State of Emergency , Warns Omicron Variant ‘is Coming’
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) declared a state of emergency Friday in response to a cold-weather surge of coronavirus infections and the threat of the newly detected omicron variant, making our one of the first in the country to impose measures against the mutation that was recently sequenced in southern Africa. Hochul said of the variant: “It’s coming, ” and urged New Yorkers to mask up in indoor public venues, get tested when appropriate and stay home when ill. She also reminded residents to get coronavirus vaccinations or booster shots.
As part of the emergency, the state’s health department will be allowed to protect hospital capacity by limiting nonessential and non-urgent care until at least Jan. 15. Hospitals with less than 10 percent staffed bed capacity, or those designated by the state, will be authorized to screen patients and restrict admissions to keep beds open for the most urgent cases.
Five Ways Senate Could Change Biden’s Spending Plan
President Biden’s climate and social spending plan is facing an overhaul in the Senate, where Democrats are splitting with their House counterparts on key provisions. Any changes in the Senate will force the bill to go back to the House, where they’ll have to decide if they can live with the updated draft. Medicare, paid leave, immigration, climate and SALT are all in play.
In addition to policy splits between House and Senate Democrats, details of the bill also need to pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian. And Republicans are able to force amendment votes during a chaotic floor debate where they could get changes into the bill if they are able to peel off one Democratic senator.
NDAA, Debt Ceiling, Government Funding: Here’s What’s Left for Congress to Address in 2021
When Congress returns from Thanksgiving break, they’ll have a slate of legislative items they must pass — and others they may try to push through — by the calendar-year’s end. Both chambers of Congress will be working in overdrive to try to avoid a government shut and default, both of which would be catastrophic for the economy, which has already been grappling with the repercussions of the COVID.
With the Government set to run out of money by December 15th raising the debt ceiling will be a priority and Senate majority Leader Schumer and Minority Leader McConnel are negotiating a solution. With that come extending government funding without causing a shutdown, and passing the National Defense Authorization Act – vital to national defense.
US COVID Update – The Latest Numbers
- 69.7% – of the U.S. population have had at least one vaccine dose
- 59.1% – of people in the U.S. are fully vaccinated
- 34,544 – new U.S. cases recorded Friday
- 395 deaths in the U.S. recorded Friday
- 775,797 -total U.S. deaths
- 5,185,296 – total deaths world-wide
NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –
Vaccine Stats as of Saturday November 27th:
One Vaccine Dose
- 77.5 of all New Yorkers – 14,867,324 (plus 13,069 from a day earlier).
- In the Hudson Valley 1,559,440 (plus 2,164).
Fully Vaccinated
- 68.2% of all New Yorkers – 13,253,898 (plus 7,121).
- In the Hudson Valley – 1,362,625 (plus 821).
The Governor updated COVID data through Friday November 26th. There were 67 COVID related deaths for a total of 59,069. (There was no reporting Thanksgiving day)
Hospitalizations:
- Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,696.
Seven Day Average Positivity Rate:
- Statewide 3.95%
- Mid-Hudson: 3.30%
Useful Websites:
Pfizer: Updated Version of its COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Ready in 100 Days’ if Omicron Variant Proves Resistant to Current Vaccine
Pfizer said it will be able to manufacture and distribute an updated version of its COVID-19 vaccine within 100 days if the new variant Omicron is found to be resistant to its current vaccine. “Pfizer and BioNTech have taken actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days in the event of an escape variant,” the company said in a statement.
Pfizer expects to know within two weeks whether the variant is resistant to its current vaccine. The variant itself has multiple mutations that might make it easier for it to evade antibodies that developed in the body after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. The mutations might also cause the variant to spread easily — even among vaccinated people.
US Pediatric COVID-19 Cases Continue to Climb
Nearly 142,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported from Nov 11 to Nov 18, a 32% increase from the previous week, according to the latest update from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). “Child cases have declined since a peak of 252,000 the week of September 2nd, but COVID cases among children remain extremely high. For the 15th week in a row child COVID-19 cases are above 100,000. Since the first week of September, there have been over 1.7 million additional child cases,” the AAP said.
Federal experts are urging parents to vaccinate all children ages 5 and older now that pediatric COVID-19 vaccines are widely available. According to ABC News, approximately one third of US children ages 5 to 17 have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose.
Read more at CIDRAP – Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy
Initial Unemployment Claims Drop Below 200k
New jobless claims fell far more than expected to the lowest level since November 1969 last week, underscoring the present tight labor market conditions as initial unemployment claims near 2019 levels while job openings hold near record highs. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
- Initial unemployment claims, week ended November 20: 199,000 vs. 260,000 expected and a revised 270,000 during prior week.
- Continuing claims, week ended November 13: 2.049 million vs. 2.033 million expected and a revised 2.109 million during prior week.
Continuing claims for regular state unemployment benefits have also drawn closer to pre-virus levels. After coming in at the lowest level since March 2020 last week, continuing claims also neared their 2019 average rate of about 1.7 million per week.
Countries Shut Borders Over New Omicron Variant – US Ban Starts Today
More countries are tightening their travel restrictions after a new coronavirus variant was identified in southern Africa earlier this week. The UK and Singapore are among those rushing in stricter quarantine measures or banning flights from South Africa and neighboring countries. The EU is proposing to ban flights from the region across the whole bloc.
The United States will bar entry to most travelers from eight southern African countries starting on Monday, President Joe Biden said on Friday. The restrictions apply to South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi. Most non-U.S. citizens who have been in those countries within the prior 14 days will not be allowed into the United States.
Read more at the BBC and Reuters
Covid-19 Vaccines or Infections: Which Carries the Stronger Immunity?
Evidence is building that immunity from Covid-19 infection is at least as strong as that from vaccination. Scientists are divided on the implications for vaccine policy. Vaccines typically give rise to a stronger antibody response than infection, which might make them better at fending off the virus in the short term. Infection triggers a response that evolves over time, possibly making it more robust in the long term.
A combination of both types appears to be stronger than either alone. But the jury is out on whether one form is stronger than the other, and whether their relative strength even matters for vaccine policy. One thing is clear: Vaccination is a far safer, more reliable strategy for acquiring immunity, given the risks of serious illness or death from infection. But viewpoints splinter about whether people who have had Covid-19 before need a full course of vaccination, and whether documented prior infection should count as proof of immunity—as is the case in some other countries, including much of Europe.
States Spending Shatters Records During Pandemic – Most from Fed Relief Funds
State governments spent more money in the last fiscal year than ever before, bolstered by federal funds meant to help avert an economic catastrophe as businesses shuttered to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Total state spending topped $2.6 trillion in Fiscal Year 2021, up 16.2 percent from the previous year, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.
Spending from state general funds, money generated by state taxes and fees, climbed 5.7 percent over the previous year. But spending from federal funds grew by 35.7 percent, on top of a 20 percent increase in Fiscal Year 2020, the report found. Much of that money came in several rounds of congressionally-authorized coronavirus relief packages. The 2020 CARES Act and the 2021 American Rescue Plan both delivered billions to state coffers.
Lockdown Effect – Kids’ Test Scores Suffer
Scholars from Brown, the University of Nebraska and MIT report in a new National Bureau of Economic Research paper that, across all 12 states in their sample, there were large reductions in test scores between 2020-21 and previous years. The average decline in math is 14.2 percentage points, versus 6.3 percentage points in English language Arts (ELA). These changes are well outside typical year-on-year variation.
The decline in students’ 2021 test scores as compared to prior years was significantly larger in districts which offered less access to in-person schooling. For example, the authors estimate that offering full in-person instruction rather than fully hybrid or virtual instruction reduces test score losses in math by 10.1 percentage points (on the base of 14.2 percentage points). In ELA, the loss is reduced in fully in-person settings by 3.2 percentage points. Overall, the data suggest significant learning losses as measured by state assessments as a result of the pandemic, and larger losses in districts with less access to in-person learning. From a policy standpoint, the results highlight the non-health implications of the pandemic, which may be long lasting.
Read the full report at NMER.org
Armageddon: This NASA Spacecraft Will Smash into an Asteroid—to Practice Saving Earth
At 10:21 p.m. Pacific Time on November 23, a NASA mission called DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, to embark on a nearly year-long voyage around the sun. If all goes well, DART’s journey will end on the evening of September 26, 2022, when the golf cart-size spacecraft will intentionally slam into a little, unsuspecting asteroid called Dimorphos.
DART’s collision with Dimorphos will destroy the spacecraft, but it should also cause the moonlet to settle into a tighter, shorter orbit around Didymos, which astronomers will measure with Earth-based telescopes. The $330-million mission is the first full test of technologies that could be used to avert a future asteroid impact—a natural hazard that, unlike earthquakes and volcanoes, humans can forecast many years ahead of time.
