Daily Briefing – 383

Post: Sep. 29, 2021

Powell Says Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Could Lead to Somewhat Longer Interval of High Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade during a panel discussion on Wednesday. Mr. Powell said the Fed sees a current surge in prices due primarily to supply-chain bottlenecks continuing into next year before fading. He said the Fed doesn’t expect the current inflation spike to “lead to a new inflation regime, in which inflation remains high year after year.”

Rising vaccination rates and nearly $2.8 trillion in federal spending approved since December has produced a recovery like none in recent memory. Inflation has soared this year, with so-called core prices that exclude volatile food and energy categories up 3.6% in July from a year earlier, using the Fed’s preferred gauge. The gains largely reflect disrupted supply chains and shortages associated with the reopening of the economy.

Congress Primed to Avert Shutdown Despite Remaining Conflicts

The Senate appeared on track Wednesday to prevent a government shutdown, as Democrats and Republicans wade through last-minute impediments to a stopgap funding bill’s passage. Despite lingering issues, the measure didn’t seem to be in immediate danger of tanking, with federal cash set to expire on Thursday at midnight. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a notorious fiscal hawk, indicated that he wouldn’t object to quickly passing the continuing resolution, which would keep the government funded through Dec. 3. If the Senate passes the stopgap bill on Wednesday, the House could move quickly to approve the measure, as well.

Remaining problems include Senate Republican concerns about emergency money to help Afghan refugees settle in the U.S. Specifically, GOP senators have issues with House-passed language that would make those refugees who pass a background check eligible for refugee benefits, a driver’s license or REAL ID card. There are also disagreements over funding for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, which was nixed due to progressive objections but remains a priority for Senate Republicans.

Home Care Agencies Project Widespread Staffing Shortages in the Next Vaccine Mandate Phase

In a survey this month by the Home Care Association of New York State, a subset of 189 agencies projected that more than 12,000 of their workers would quit rather than accept vaccination for COVID-19. Since there are about 1,500 home care agencies across the state, the industry-wide losses would be several times higher, the association said.

Among agencies that responded to survey, the average vaccination rate for home health aides was 63 percent, almost 20 points lower than the 82.3 percent rate for all eligible New Yorkers. The average rates for other home care workers were 87 percent for therapists, 79 percent for nurses and 72 percent for administrative staff.

NYSDOL Updates the NY HERO Act Model Plan

The NYS Department of Labor has updated their model airborne infectious disease exposure prevention plans. Notably, the updated plans reflects two key changes.

First, the updated model plan revises the section on “face coverings” to provide two options from which employers can choose based on vaccination status. Second, the NYSDOL appears to have removed the words “use a face covering when physical distancing cannot be maintained” under the “Physical Distancing” section of the template. In addition, it also removed the provision stating to “[a]void unnecessary gatherings and maintain a distance of at least six feet.”

US COVID-19 Update – Cases, Mortality Level Off

The US CDC reports 42.9 million cumulative COVID-19 cases and 686,639 deaths. Daily incidence continues to decline at the national level, down to approximately 115,000 new cases per day, which would be the lowest average since early August. Daily mortality appears to have leveled off at approximately 1,500 deaths per day.

The US has administered 391 million cumulative doses of vaccines. The daily vaccination trend continues to decline from the most recent peak on August 29 (approximately 850,000), down to fewer than 600,000 doses per day. There are 213.7 million individuals who have received at least 1 dose, equivalent to 64.4% of the entire US population. Among adults, 77.1% have received at least 1 dose, as well as 14.6 million adolescents aged 12-17 years. A total of 183.9 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 55.4% of the total population. Approximately 66.6% of adults are fully vaccinated, as well as 11.8 million adolescents aged 12-17 years.

NYS Vaccine and COVID Update

Vaccine Stats as of Wednesday September 29th:

One Vaccine Dose

71.1 of all New Yorkers – 13,813,359 (plus 24,652 from a day earlier)
In the Hudson Valley 1,451,160 (plus 2,386)

Fully Vaccinated

63.6% of all New Yorkers – 12,367,937 are fully vaccinated (Plus 18,415)
In the Hudson Valley – 1,286,224 (plus 1,835) are fully vaccinated.

The Governor updated COVID data through Tuesday September 28th. There were 47 COVID related deaths for a total of 56,682.

Hospitalizations:

Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,348.

Seven Day Average Positivity Rate:

Statewide 2.67%
Mid-Hudson: 2.72%

Useful Websites:

Dr. Mary T. Bassett Appointed as Commissioner of the New York State Department of Health

Governor Kathy Hochul today announced Mary T. Bassett, MD, MPH, has been appointed Commissioner of the Department of Health. With more than 30 years of experience devoted to promoting health equity and social justice, both in the United States and abroad, Dr. Bassett’s career has spanned academia, government, and not-for-profit work. Her appointment is effective December 1. Dr. Bassett currently serves as director of the François-Xavier Bagnoud (FXB) Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University and FXB Professor of the Practice of Health and Human Rights in the department of Social and Behavioral Sciences at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

“I am humbled and honored to return to my home state of New York to lead the Department of Health at this pivotal time,” incoming Health Commissioner Mary T. Bassett said. “The pandemic underscored the importance of public health, while also revealing inequities driven by structural racism. As we move to end the pandemic, we have a unique opportunity to create a state that is more equitable for all New Yorkers. I look forward to working toward this with Governor Hochul and the team at the Department of Health.”

Read the press release

ECB’s Lagarde Names Bottlenecks, Energy and Virus as Key Risks

The economic outlook for the euro zone is still fraught with uncertainty, stemming from supply bottlenecks, surging energy prices and new waves of the coronavirus pandemic, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. “How long how those bottlenecks will take to be resolved… is one of the question marks,” Lagarde said at an ECB event.

Speaking of higher energy prices, Lagarde added: “We’ll see how long it takes for that to fade away; it should go out in the first part of ’22.” She added “The last of the uncertainties that we have to account for…is potential new waves of a pandemic that would be vaccine-resistant.”

The Great Car-Chip Shortage Will Have Lasting Consequences

It has been a difficult month for the car industry. Manufacturers such as Toyota and General Motors have announced sweeping reductions to their fall production schedules for want of parts, particularly semiconductors. Consulting firm AlixPartners said Thursday that the chip shortage would likely cost the industry $210 billion in lost revenues this year, which was almost double its May estimate.

When it finally comes, the new normal that emerges from the current mess won’t look like the old normal. Car makers will go to great lengths to avoid a repeat, particularly as their industry is on the cusp of a digital revolution that will require a massive ramp up in chip supplies.

Cyberattacks to Metal Fabrication Companies Are Not Hypothetical

Research shows that the number of publicly recorded ransomware attacks against manufacturing has tripled in the last year alone—and even job shops and contract manufacturers are at risk: 43% of cyberattacks are aimed at small businesses.

For shops that have or are seeking defense work, there is a coming tidal wave in the industry: the Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC). Over the next five years, every business in the defense manufacturing supply chain—an estimated 300,000 companies—will need to obtain third-party certification in cybersecurity. The level of required security will depend on what kind of data is handled by each company.

Fumio Kishida Wins Race to Become Japan’s Next Prime Minister

Fumio Kishida has won a race to lead Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), putting him on course to become the next prime minister. Mr Kishida will succeed Yoshihide Suga, who decided to step down after just one year in office.

His first mission as prime minister will be to lead the LDP to victory in an upcoming general election.
The party’s popularity fell after it pushed to host the Tokyo Olympics despite public opposition. Mr Kishida, a former foreign minister, beat out Taro Kono, who was widely regarded as the most popular candidate. Given the LDP’s majority in parliament, Mr Kishida’s position as prime minister has been all but cemented.

Danskammer Debate Continues

Tuesday evening, during the latest PSC public hearing, concerned locals spoke in favor and against the 536-megawatt, 720 yearly load-hour, natural gas, and ultra-low sulfur diesel power plant.

Those in favor of the plant during the hearings have been primarily from local unions, citing job creation being a major advantage to the local economy. Those opposed, who have represented the largest majority of speakers at these public hearings, have argued that the plant is not only unnecessary to meet the energy goal of the Hudson Valley, but is in conflict with the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act.

Decision on Premium Rate for NYS Paid Family Leave Benefits and Maximum Employee Contribution

The Superintendent has determined that the premium rate for Paid Family Leave benefits for coverage beginning January 1, 2022 shall remain at the level as the premium rate applicable for calendar year 2021, and be set at 0.506%, plus 0.005% for the Risk Adjustment for the COVID-19 claims paid under Chapter 25 of the Laws of 2020, for a total of 0.511% of an employee’s wages each pay period up to and not to exceed an annual maximum employee contribution of $423.71.

If an employee’s contributions reach the annual maximum employee contribution of $423.71 before the end of the calendar year, the employee shall not be liable for any additional contributions for that year.& Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision.

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