Daily Briefing – 330

Post: Jun. 23, 2021

Governor Cuomo Announces End to State of Emergency Effective Today

Governor Cuomo announced at a press briefing yesterday that New York State will end the Temporary Disaster Emergency established to respond to the COVID-19 crisis by Executive Order 202 and subsequent Executive Orders, effective tomorrow, June 24th. This will end the suspensions and modifications of law, and all directives contained in the Executive Orders relating to the State’s Disaster Emergency.

The Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance requiring masks for unvaccinated individuals, and for all individuals on public transportation and certain other settings remains in place. Local Governments may continue to enforce mask rules in these settings.

Read the press release

The Post-Pandemic Income Bounce Was Lower in NY Than in Most States

In a further sign of the Empire State’s weak recovery from the pandemic-induced recession of 2020, personal income in New York bounced back more slowly than the national average during the first quarter of this year, according to data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income in New York from January through March, measured on an annualized basis, was up 51.9 percent. By comparison, the 50-state change in personal income in the first quarter was 59.7 percent.

In both cases, nearly all of the income gain (91 percent in New York; 93 percent nationally) was categorized as transfer receipts to individuals, reflecting “new government pandemic relief payments provided by the [federal] Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act and the American Rescue Plan Act,” the BEA noted. The rest of the increase would have flowed through personal earnings from employment, dividends, interest and rent.

Euro Zone Business Growth at 15-Year High – Price Pressures Rise

Euro zone business growth accelerated at its fastest pace in 15 years. The IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index jumped to 59.2 from 57.1, its highest reading since June 2006. The expansion in euro zone manufacturing activity meanwhile matched May’s blistering record pace, with the June flash PMI estimate holding steady from May’s final reading of 63.1.

supply side disruptions and huge demand have made it a sellers’ market for the raw materials factories need. The manufacturing input prices index rose to 88.0 from 87.1, the highest since the survey began in June 1997.

U.S. Factory Activity Rises to Record High in June – IHS Markit

Data firm IHS Markit said on Wednesday its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of 62.6 this month. That was the highest since the survey was expanded to cover all manufacturing industries in October 2009 and followed a final reading of 62.1 in May.

Additionally the IHS Markit report found:

The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers rose to the highest level since the series started.
Firms raised their selling prices at a quicker rate in an effort to pass on these higher costs.
The survey’s new orders measure slipped, noting also that firms struggled to find staff or entice workers back to employment.

NYS Vaccine and COVID Update – State of Emergency Ends Today

Vaccine Stats as of Wednesday morning:

One Vaccine Dose

59.1% of all New Yorkers – 11,369,732 (plus 23,674 from a day earlier)
In the Hudson Valley 1,209,337 (plus 2,653)

Fully Vaccinated

52.3% of all New Yorkers – 10,204,627 are fully vaccinated (Plus 32,174)
In the Hudson Valley – 1,081,267 (plus 3,971) are fully vaccinated.

The Governor updated COVID data through Tuesday June 22nd. There were 6 COVID related deaths for a total of 42,942.

Hospitalizations:

Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 486

Seven Day Average Positivity Rate:

Statewide 0.36%
Mid-Hudson: 0.33%

Useful Websites:

US COVID Update – Entering the “Long Tail”

The rate of decline in the United States’ COVID-19 incidence is beginning to taper off. This was inevitable as the US appears to be entering the “long tail” of its COVID-19 epidemic, but there is some concern that the slowing progress could be a function of increasing prevalence of the Delta variant of concern (B.1.617.2; VOC).

The US CDC publishes genomic sequencing data, both at the national and regional levels, and this week, Johns Hopkins will analyze trends in VOCs, including Delta, that could potentially impact COVID-19 incidence. At the regional level, the Alpha variant remains the dominant strain in all 10 HHS regions as of May 22, but the Nowcast projection potentially signals major changes in the coming weeks. For the period ending May 22, the Alpha variant still represents more than 50% sequences in all but 1 region, with only Region 2 (New Jersey/New York) projected to be 49.7%.

Covid-19 Vaccine Boosters May be Necessary

Researchers and health officials suspect that the immunity against Covid-19 from the three coronavirus vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States might wane over time — possibly after a year or more — and might not protect as well against coronavirus variants that could emerge and evolve. Therefore a booster of some kind will be necessary.

Scientists at a number of companies that make Covid-19 vaccines have predicted the need for boosters within a year — but the scientific community is not in widespread agreement on this. So far, studies have shown that mRNA vaccines — those made by Pfizer and Moderna — maintain more than 90% efficacy six months after getting vaccinated. And scientists say it’s likely much longer.

Business Groups Urge Biden to Embrace Bipartisan Infrastructure Package

Business groups such as the US Chamber and Business Roundtable oppose tax hikes included in Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal and are lobbying Biden to back a bipartisan bill that pays for itself in other ways, such as user fees and unspent federal dollars instead. The groups cited a bipartisan proposal from the moderate House Problem Solvers Caucus that would spend $1.25 trillion primarily on traditional infrastructures such as highways, roads and bridges and a $1.2 trillion bipartisan proposal backed by 21 senators as another avenue to a bipartisan bill.

The groups launched a coalition of over 130 former government officials, trade groups and business executives calling for a bipartisan bill and are urging Biden to reject congressional Democrats’ proposal to pass infrastructure legislation through budget reconciliation without Republican support.

Powell Plays Down Inflation Threat

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it’s highly unlikely that inflation will rise to levels seen in the 1970s but acknowledged significant uncertainty as the economy reopens. Mr. Powell said Tuesday on Capitol Hill that while the increases in prices have been larger than central bankers had expected and may prove more persistent, he underscored his view that shortages—including of used cars, computer chips and workers—will fade over time, bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% long-run target.

Mr. Powell said that while he has “a level of confidence” in the prediction that inflation will start to subside, “it’s very hard to say what the timing of that will be.”

Record-High U.S. House Prices, Tight Supply Slow Sales

U.S. home sales fell for a fourth straight month in May as record-high prices amid low inventory frustrated potential buyers, a trend that could persist for a while, with builders unable to deliver more houses because of expensive lumber.

Existing home sales dropped 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million units last month. The median existing house price accelerated a record 23.6% from a year ago to an all-time high of $350,300 in May, with sales remaining skewed towards bigger and more expensive homes.

Boeing Awarded $169M for US Army Helicopters

Boeing Defense, Space, & Security has drawn a new U.S. Army contract in support of long-leadtime activities for full-rate production for the AH-64 Apache helicopter. The Army awarded $169,460,000 for FY 2021, though production is expected to continue through May 31, 2027. Work will be conducted at Boeing’s operation in Mesa, Ariz.

The Boeing AH-64 Apache is an attack helicopter powered by twin-turboshaft engines and armed with a 30-mm M230 artillery system, as well as facility for a mixture of missiles and rocket pods.

Settlement Reached in Suez Canal Ship Case

The insurers and the company that owns the Ever Given cargo ship that blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week earlier this year announced on Wednesday that they have reached a settlement with the Egyptian government.

The Ever Given’s insurance company, the UK P&I Club did not state what the monetary terms of the settlement were. The SCA had initially demanded $900 million in compensation before lowering their demand to $550 million. Egyptian authorities seized the Ever Given in April, ordering the ship’s owner, Japanese chartering company Shoei Kisen Kaisha to cover the losses incurred over the ship’s blockage. The ship and its crew have been stuck in Egypt this entire time as the terms of compensation were settled.

OSHA Updates N95 Mask FAQs

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has updated its Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) regarding the use of N95 facemasks in the workplace with the intention of reducing the potential for workers of contracting the COVID-19 virus.

The agency also has addressed its standards regarding respirators and particle size, and at the same time it explained how N95 respirators effectively protect wearers from coronavirus exposure given rumors that they are not effective in blocking the virus.

$25 Million in Child Care Scholarships for Essential Workers

Governor announced yesterday that New York State will provide $25 million in child care scholarships to all essential workers starting June 23, 2021. Essential workers include first responders such as health care providers, pharmaceutical staff, law enforcement, firefighters, transportation workers, food delivery workers, grocery store employees and others. The funding comes from federal Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan Act.

Child care costs will be covered for essential staff whose income is less than 300 percent of the federal poverty level (or $79,500 for a family of four) and will be paid up to market rate for each region statewide for children aged six weeks through 12 years.

Euro 2020 Final Will Stay in London

In spite of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi call on Monday for the EURO 2020 final to be moved out of London because of the spread of the Delta variant, the game will be played in Wembley Stadium. Draghi told reporters in Berlin that he wants “to ensure that the final of the European championship does not take place in a country where contagions are growing rapidly.” Britain recorded more than 10,630 new COVID-19 infections on Monday.

The 60,000 fans will need to be masked as part of the agreement to keep the game in London.

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