Daily Briefing – 285

Post: Apr. 15, 2021

J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI Rises to Ten-Year High

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to 55.0 in March, a 121-month high and its best reading since February 2011. The level of the PMI was supported by stronger growth of output, new orders and employment. A slower decrease in stocks of purchases and lengthening of vendor lead times also had a positive impact.

Manufacturing production increased at one of the quickest rates over the past decade, underpinned by the strongest expansion of incoming new work for just over a decade.
International trade flows also picked up pace, with growth of new export business the steepest since January 2018. Efforts to raise production further were stymied by supply chain disruptions in March, with input delivery schedules delayed by longer vendor lead times. The increase in supplier delivery times was the second-greatest extent on record, surpassed only by April last year.

NYS Vaccine Update – 50% Of New York Adults Have At Least One Dose

Governor today announced that more than 50 percent of New Yorkers 18 years of age and older have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and more than one in three in the same age group have been fully vaccinated. More than 12.5 million doses of the vaccine have been administered in New York State.

As of 11 am Thursday 7,912,401 (plus 101,317 from a day earlier) New Yorkers have received at least one vaccine dose and 5,273,4991 are fully vaccinated (Plus 99,808). In the Hudson Valley 830,372 (plus 11,819) have at least one dose and 522,628 (plus 13,928) are fully vaccinated.

COVID Update – Lowest Hospitalizations in 4 More Than Months

Governor Cuomo issues a press release yesterday afternoon with data through Tuesday April 14th. There were 46 COVID related deaths for a total of 41,347.

Hospitalization tracking data for the Mid-Hudson region and the rest of the State are below.

Hospitalizations

Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 3,963
Hospitalizations Mid-Hudson Region: 433

ICU Beds In Use (All Uses)

Occupied ICU Beds Statewide: 3,258
Occupied ICU Beds Mid-Hudson Region: 422

Other Data

Statewide Positivity Rate: 3.05%
Mid-Hudson Positivity Rate: 3.63%

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US Vaccine Rollout – Officials Say Johnson & Johnson Pause Won’t Slow Rollout

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows 2.6 million vaccine doses reported administered across the U.S. Tuesday, bringing the daily average of shots given over the past week to a fresh high of 3.4 million. More than 75 million Americans are now fully vaccinated, according to CDC data, nearly 23% of the total population. About 122 million people, or 37% of the population, have received at least one dose.

U.S. officials say the Food and Drug Administration’s recommended pause on the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will not slow down the vaccination campaign.
Jeff Zients, the White House Covid-19 Response Coordinator, told reporters Tuesday that the Johnson & Johnson announcement “will not have a significant impact on our vaccination program.”

Three Northern States Account for Most of the Rise in U.S. Cases

U.S. Covid cases are rising slowly but steadily. Three northern states—Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois—account for most of the increase in national cases. By contrast, the March upturns in several other large northern states, including New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, have either flattened or partially reversed, though the trend is still rising, albeit quite slowly, in Pennsylvania.

Cases in the open states in the South are flat or, in the case of Florida, rising slowly but steadily.

The EU is Going mRNA All the Way

“We need to focus on technologies that have proven their worth: mRNA vaccines are a clear case in point,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated Wednesday, announcing that the Commission is in talks to buy another 1.8 billion coronavirus vaccine doses from BioNTech/Pfizer. These doses, to be distributed between 2021 and 2023, are expected to help the bloc in the event Europeans need booster shots or retooled vaccines to fight coronavirus variants, von der Leyen said.

This decision leaves the adenovirus camp—notably AstraZeneca and J&J—in the dust. The Russian maker of the Sputnik V vaccine, however, is trying to differentiate its adenovirus-based jab from those other two, stressing there are no indications of a link between Sputnik V and blood clots.

576,000 Americans Filed New Unemployment Claims Last Week, a 52 Week Low

U.S. unemployment claims sank by 193,000 in early April to a fresh pandemic low, an unusually large decline that reflects an improving economy but also ongoing problems in processing applications for jobless benefits. Initial jobless claims filed traditionally through the states fell to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 from 769,000 in the prior week, the government said Thursday. That’s the largest decline since August.

The number of new claims dropped below 600,000 for the first time since the pandemic began 13 months ago and touched a new low. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims would fall to 710,000 in the seven days ended April 10, partly because of the Good Friday holiday. Claims usually decline around Easter.

Retail Sales Explode in March

A fresh batch of stimulus checks sent consumer purchases surging in March as the U.S. economy continued to get juice from aggressive congressional spending.

Advance retail sales rose 9.8% for the month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That compared to the Dow Jones estimate of a 6.1% gain and a decline of 2.7% in February. Sporting goods, clothing and food and beverage led the gains in spending and contributed to the best month for retail since the May 2020 gain of 18.3%, which came after the first round of stimulus checks.

Fed: Pace of US Economy Accelerating

The U.S. economic recovery accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April as consumers, buoyed by increased COVID-19 vaccinations and strong fiscal support, opened their wallets to spend more on travel and other items, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. The labor market, which was decimated by the coronavirus pandemic, also improved as more people returned to work, with the pace of hiring picking up the most in the manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality sectors.

The beige book report, based on information from business contacts supplied by the Fed’s 12 regional banks, said that manufacturing activity continued to expand, with half of the Fed districts reporting robust manufacturing growth. Those gains came despite supply-chain disruptions in such critical areas as computer chips.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: “Sturdy Pace” of Growth

Manufacturing activity grew at a sturdy pace in New York State in April.

The general business conditions index rose nine points to 26.3, its highest level since well before the pandemic began.
The new orders index shot up eighteen points to 26.9 and the shipments index climbed to 25.0, pointing to strong gains in orders and shipments.
Unfilled orders were notably higher.
The delivery times index surged seventeen points to 28.1, breaking the previous record by twelve points, pointing to significantly longer delivery times.
Inventories moved higher.
The index for number of employees increased five points to 13.9, and the average workweek index edged up to 12.7, indicating ongoing gains in employment and hours worked.
The prices paid index rose ten points to 74.7, its highest level since 2008, pointing to sharp input price increases.
The prices received index rose eleven points to 34.9, a record high, indicating that selling prices increased at the fastest pace in more than twenty years.

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March Industrial Production Rose 1.4%, Below 2.5% Consensus

February output was hugely depressed by the massive mid-month storm so a rebound was inevitable in March, but it was not clear how much of the lost ground would be recovered. None, is the answer, given that manufacturing output dropped 3.7% in February and rose only 2.7% in March.

Vehicle output was hardest hit, plunging 10.0% in February and rising only 2.8% in March. This is hard to fathom, given the strong rebound in auto sales and the astonishing strength of the business surveys, so we have to expect catch-up gains over the next couple months.

UK Economy Grew in February as Firms Readied for Lockdown Easing

Britain’s economy grew by 0.4% in February from January as companies prepared for the lifting of a third coronavirus lockdown, according to official data which also showed a partial recovery in post-Brexit trade with the European Union.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 0.6%. However, the data also showed that the fall in gross domestic product in January was not as severe as previously estimated, down by 2.2% compared with the initial reading of a 2.9% drop.

Chinese Economy Grew More Than 18% in First Quarter

China’s economy surged 18.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, a record rate of growth that reflected the recovery from a deep coronavirus-induced trough in early 2020 and the continued momentum of the world’s second largest economy.

The rate of gross domestic product growth in the first three months of 2021 was sharply higher than the 6.5% year-over-year growth recorded in the final quarter of 2020, though it fell short of the 19.2% growth expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Analysts had anticipated GDP growth in the first three months of the year to jump sharply when compared with the year-earlier period, when the Chinese economy suffered a historic 6.8% contraction as the coronavirus’ initial emergence forced Beijing to shut down large swaths of the country.

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