Daily Briefing – 284

Post: Apr. 14, 2021

Census Survey: COVID-19 Fears Keep People from Getting Jobs

A year after the pandemic burst onto the U.S. economy, 8.4 million fewer Americans hold jobs. There are many reasons, but one of the most important and least appreciated is the one that keeps Ms. McLaurin at home: fear. A U.S. Census survey conducted in the second half of March found that about 4.2 million adults aren’t working because they are afraid of getting or spreading the coronavirus.

The large number helps explain why some companies say labor is scarce even though the unemployment rate is 6%. It suggests that even with generous fiscal and monetary stimulus, the U.S. labor market might not fully heal until the virus is tamed. What’s more, if fear of the virus keeps people out of the work force, it could add inflation pressure as employers seeking to meet stimulus-fueled demand are forced to raise wages to hire enough workers or keep those they have, and pass those costs on to customers.

NYS Vaccine Update

As of 11 am Wednesday 7,811,084 (plus 105,997 from a day earlier) New Yorkers have received at least one vaccine dose and 5,173,691 are fully vaccinated (Plus 88,476). In the Hudson Valley 818,553 (plus 12,935) have at least one dose and 508,700 (plus 11,828) are fully vaccinated.

COVID Update

Governor Cuomo announced that effective Monday, April 19, the curfew for bars and restaurants will be extended. The current curfew will be extended from 11pm to midnight. The curfew for catered events will also move from midnight to 1am. He also announced that spectators will be allowed at horse and auto races at 20 percent capacity, beginning Thursday, April 22.

Governor Cuomo issues a press release yesterday afternoon with data through Tuesday April 13th. There were 43 COVID related deaths for a total of 41,301.

Hospitalization tracking data for the Mid-Hudson region and the rest of the State are below.

Hospitalizations

Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 4,091
Hospitalizations Mid-Hudson Region: 468

ICU Beds In Use (All Uses)

Occupied ICU Beds Statewide: 4,238
Occupied ICU Beds Mid-Hudson Region: 424

Other Data

Statewide Positivity Rate: 3.12%
Mid-Hudson Positivity Rate: 3.72%

Useful Websites:

US Vaccine Rollout – J&J Pause Risks Hesitancy Even as U.S. Sees Ample Shots

Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine represents only a sliver of the current U.S. supply, but pausing its use could present new hurdles for an immunization campaign that needs to overcome wider vaccine hesitancy to outpace fast-spreading variants. “This is going to scare a lot of people, and rightfully so,” said Noel Brewer, professor of health behavior at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “We should all be concerned about the safety of medicines we receive. In this case, there’s not a lot of reason for concern. The actual risk is vanishingly small.”

The sidelining of J&J, however temporary, leaves the U.S. with two other shots that already made up the bulk of its vaccination campaign — from Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. Vaccines from those two companies account for 95% of the shots allocated in the U.S. this week.

J & J Vaccine Remains on Pause as CDC Panel Requests More Information

An advisory panel to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declined to make any new recommendations on the use of the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine, which will remain paused as the investigation into rare reports of severe blood clots continues. It will be at least a week until the panel is scheduled to reconvene.

Many of the experts on the committee said they did not have enough information at this time to make a decision, particularly while the other two Covid-19 vaccines authorized in the U.S. are widely available and have no such safety concerns.

Are Vaccine Passports Legal in the US? the Christian Science Monitor Asks Five Questions

With about 20% of the U.S. having been vaccinated to date, some states, businesses, and schools are considering tools to track individuals’ status – also known as “vaccine passports.” Supporters say it would help schools and businesses reopen safely. Critics say it infringes on individuals’ health choices. Israel has implemented them, and many European nations are looking to do the same as summer approaches.

Here in the U.S., the law is relatively clear. The ethics are not.

More Colleges Make COVID Vaccines Mandatory for Students

The number of colleges and universities that will require students be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 is suddenly escalating. All 50 states have at least some vaccine mandates for children attending public schools and even those attending private schools and day-care centers. In every case, there are medical exemptions, and in some cases there are religious or philosophical exemptions, as well.

In just the last few days, Duke University, Brown, Northeastern University, the University of Notre Dame, Syracuse University and Ithaca College all announced that students returning to campus in the fall must be fully vaccinated before the first day of class. Cornell University, Rutgers University, Nova Southeastern University, Roger Williams University in Bristol, Rhode Island, Fort Lewis College in Durango, Colorado, and St. Edward’s University in Austin, Texas, have also said vaccinations will be mandatory for the fall of 2021.

NAM Has Resources to Promote Vaccination to Your Employees

Getting manufacturers—and more Americans—to receive their shot is one of the most important steps toward ending the pandemic, getting back to life and powering recovery and renewal. To accomplish this essential mission, the National Association of Manufacturers and The Manufacturing Institute—the workforce development and education partner of the NAM—are providing the resources below to ensure that manufacturers, their teams and their communities know that COVID-19 vaccines are safe, effective and available.

#ThisIsOurShot. We can get through this pandemic, but only if we roll up our sleeves and get armed against COVID-19.

Fake COVID-19 Certificates Hit Airlines

The documents are often the Covid-19 test results required by many countries on arrival. The International Air Transport Association industry body says it has tracked fake certificates in multiple countries, from France to Brazil, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Border control authorities and police forces have also reported arrests of people selling documents in the U.K., Spain, Indonesia and Zimbabwe, among others.

The problem is hitting international flights more than domestic ones, which typically don’t require certification at the moment. Airlines that are more dependent on cross-border travel, particularly those operating in Europe, are growing increasingly alarmed as they look to the summer, when they still hope demand will start to return.

What’s Behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?

The NY Fed notes that household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors of this study highlight the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom. They argue that the larger scale of government assistance in the United States, Japan, and Canada helps explain why saving in these countries has risen more strongly than in the euro area. How freely households spend out of their newly accumulated savings will be a key factor determining the strength of economic recoveries.

Big Bank Earnings – JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Earnings Crush Views; Wells Fargo Also Beats

Big bank stocks are on the upswing again buoyed by Biden’s massive stimulus package and the continued vaccine rollout. Treasury yields are picking up too, with the 10-year rate above 1% again. Investment banking activity is also brisk as SPACs explode, while trading desks benefited from a surge in volatility in the first quarter.

JPMorgan earnings skyrocketed 477% to $4.50 a share. Revenue climbed to $33.12 billion. But earnings got a big boost from JPMorgan releasing $5.2 billion from credit loss reserves.
Goldman had EPS of $18.60 on revenue of $17.7 billion. Investment banking revenue jumped 73% to $3.77 billion. Fixed income trading revenue climbed 31% to $3.89 billion, and equities trading revenue surged 68% to $3.69 billion.
Wells Fargo had EPS of $1.05 on revenue of $18.06 billion. Provision for credit losses decreased $5.1 billion. Consumer banking revenue was flat at $8.65 billion.

Boeings Q1 Deliveries Jump

The return of the 737 MAX to service boosted Boeing’s first-quarter plane deliveries compared with a year ago. The aviation giant reported 77 commercial plane deliveries in the quarter ending March 31. That is an increase from the 50 delivered in the year-ago period, but barely half the 149 planes delivered in 2019 before dual crises over the MAX grounding and the Covid-19 travel industry downturn.

In the first quarter, the 737 accounted for 63 of the 77 commercial planes delivered, including 58 of the MAX model. Boeing in March also notched a second straight month of net positive orders for the MAX after achieving the milestone in February for the first time since November 2019.

RV Sales Hit Record In February, On Pace For Blowout 2021

According to the recent study commissioned by RVIA, RV wholesale shipments appear to be headed to their highest levels in 2021. Those projections show total RV shipments ranging between 523,000 units and 543,000 units for the coming year, representing a 23% increase over the 2020 year-end total of 430,412 units. It suggests a 5% gain over the record high of 504,600 units shipped in 2017.

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