Daily Briefing – 279

Post: Apr. 7, 2021

More on the $212 Billion New York State Spending Plan

State Operating Funds spending is $111 billion
All Funds spending $212 billion for FY 2022
Applies $5.5 billion in federal aid
Provides $29.5 billion in School Aid, a $3 billion, 11% increase.
Provides $7.7 billion in State support for higher education in New York
$311 billion infrastructure plan
$29 Billion in Public and Private Green Economy Investments
$800 million in grant funding for small businesses impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
A surcharge on corporate tax rate that increases the business income tax rate from 6.5% to 7.25% for three years for taxpayers with business income greater than $5 million. It also increases the capital base method of liability estimation to 0.1875% from the 0.025% rate in effect last year. The capital base method increase continue to exempt qualified manufacturers.
$50 million for training in high-growth industries, employer-driven training for low-income workers.

NYS Vaccine Update – More Than 20% of New Yorkers Are Fully Vaccinated

All New Yorkers 16 years of age and older are now eligible in New York. As of 11 am Wednesday 6,871,863 (plus 123,968 from a day earlier) New Yorkers have received at least one vaccine dose and 4,339,413 are fully vaccinated (Plus 105,950). In the Hudson Valley 708,746(plus 14,589) have at least one dose and 410,180 (plus 13,741) are fully vaccinated.

COVID Update

Governor Cuomo issues a press release yesterday afternoon with data through Tuesday April 6th. There were 59 COVID related deaths for a total of 40,922.

Hospitalization tracking data for the Mid-Hudson region and the rest of the State are below.

Hospitalizations

Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 4,526
Hospitalizations Mid-Hudson Region: 514

ICU Beds In Use (All Uses)

Occupied ICU Beds Statewide: 4,141
Occupied ICU Beds Mid-Hudson Region: 384

Other Data

Statewide Positivity Rate: 3.48%
Mid-Hudson Positivity Rate: 4.34%

Useful Websites:

US Vaccine Rollout – New U.S. Cases Fall as Vaccine Rollout Ramps Up

The U.S. reported more than 61,000 new cases for Tuesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University that was published early Wednesday. The data may update later. Not all states report data on new cases daily. Tuesday’s figure was lower than Monday’s revised tally of 77,794, when several states resumed reporting data after the Easter weekend.

About 19% of people in the U.S. are now fully vaccinated, with an average of 3 million doses administered each day over the past week. Vaccination levels vary by state. In New Mexico, 26.3% of residents are fully vaccinated, while in Georgia, the figure is 13.4%, according to CDC data.

Oxford Pauses Trial of Covid 19 Vaccine on Children

The University of Oxford said no safety concerns have arisen from the children’s trial and Sage adviser Professor Calum Semple said the decision to pause had been made out of “exceptional caution”, as he urged people to continue accepting Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs.

Assessments are under way into a very rare and specific type of blood clot in the brain, known as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), occurring together with low levels of platelets (thrombocytopenia) following vaccination in adults.

Manufacturing Openings Keep Improving

The number of job openings edged up to 7.4 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires also edged up to 5.7 million while total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate were unchanged at 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.

There were 538,000 manufacturing job openings in February, up from 537,000 in January. Meanwhile, manufacturers hired 387,000 workers, up from 351,000 in January, while layoffs in the industry declined from 90,000 in January to 84,000 in February, the lowest reading since August 2014.

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Goldilocks Moment’ for U.S. Economy

In his annual letter to shareholders Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said strong consumer savings, expanded vaccine distribution and the Biden administration’s proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to an economic “Goldilocks moment”—fast, sustained growth alongside inflation and interest rates that drift slowly upward. The U.S. government’s rapid and deep monetary and fiscal intervention over the past year helped prevent many of the worst outcomes, said Mr. Dimon, who has since made a full recovery from the aortic tear he suffered in March 2020.

Mr. Dimon called for laying the foundation for long-term economic growth with a yearslong, nationwide “Marshall Plan” Affordable child care, streamlined safety-net programs and job training that leads to higher-wage jobs would increase labor-force participation.

NY Fed Study: How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks

A NY Fed Study found that households reported using or planning to use an average 16 percent of the second-round stimulus funds for essential spending, an average 6 percent for non-essential spending, and to donate 3 percent, resulting in a total MPC of 26 percent. They also reported saving or planning to save an average 37 percent of their stimulus checks and use 37 percent to pay down debt. These shares are very similar to those we found for the first round of stimulus checks, where households reported spending 29 percent, saving 36 percent, and using 35 percent to pay down debt. (See the table below.)

The reported allocations are also in line with those that households reported back in August for a potential future second round of stimulus checks. At that point in time, they expected to use a slightly lower share for consumption (24 percent) and debt paydown (31 percent), with more expected to be saved (45 percent).

IMF Revises Forecast Again

The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and vast sums of government aid will accelerate global economic growth to a record high this year in a powerful rebound from the pandemic recession, the International Monetary Fund says in its latest forecast. The 190-country lending agency said Tuesday that it expects the world economy to expand 6% in 2021, up from the 5.5% it had forecast in January. It would be the fastest expansion for the global economy in IMF records dating back to 1980.

In 2022, the IMF predicts, international economic growth will decelerate to a still strong 4.4%, up from its January forecast of 4.2%.

IRS Issues Guidance for ERTC

On Friday, the Internal Revenue Service issued important guidance to help employers determine their eligibility for claiming the Employee Retention Tax Credit for the first half of 2021. The latest guidance from the IRS addresses a range of issues for the first two calendar quarters of 2021, including:

The increase in the maximum credit amount,
The expansion of the category of employers that may be eligible to claim the credit,
Modifications to the gross receipts test,
Revisions to the definition of qualified wages, and
New restrictions on the ability of eligible employers to request an advance payment of the credit.

One Third Of Millennials Plan To Quit Their Jobs After The Pandemic

One third of millennials intend to seek a new job when the pandemic ends, and about 26% of all employees will look to change jobs, with 80% of them anxious about career growth, according to a Pulse of the American Worker Survey from Prudential. The Labor Department found that about 3.4 million US employees left their jobs in February, and almost 50% of the employees surveyed who intend to leave their jobs said they’d give their employer a grade of “C” or lower for their workplace culture efforts during the pandemic.

Side Conversations are Powerful — and Missing Right Now

Social distancing has meant fewer side conversations, which means fewer offhand comments that provide insight into larger issues, writes Michael Wade. “Savvy chief executives have long known that it is wise to watch for ‘by the way’ remarks that people make at the conclusion of a one-on-one meeting and especially while the departing colleague is standing in the doorway,” he writes.

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