Daily Briefing – 259

Post: Mar. 9, 2021

COVID Update

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday morning providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Monday March 8th.

Hospitalization tracking data for the Mid-Hudson region and the rest of the State are below.

Hospitalizations

Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 4,899
Hospitalizations Mid-Hudson Region: 490

ICU Beds In Use (All Uses)

Occupied ICU Beds Statewide: 4,103
Occupied ICU Beds Mid-Hudson Region: 408

Other Data

Statewide Positivity Rate: 3.16%
Mid-Hudson Positivity Rate: 4.29%

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Tax Hikes “Still on the Table” Despite Federal Dollars Coming to New York

The $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package passed by the US Senate wipes out New York State’s projected budget deficit — possibly negating the need for hefty tax hikes or spending cuts, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office said Monday. The American Rescue Plan provides state government coffers with $12.6 billion in unrestricted aid, a measure championed by Schumer, the New York senior senator

Asked about Schumer’s office claim, Cuomo budget spokesman Freeman Klopott referred to the governor’s comments on Sunday, when he said that tax hikes are still on the table despite the influx of federal funding.

NYS Vaccine Update – Expanded Eligibility Includes New Yorkers 60 Years and Older

Governor Cuomo yesterday announced that beginning March 10, all New Yorkers 60 years of age and older will be eligible to receive the vaccine. Additionally the following essential workers will now be eligible to begin receiving the COVID-19 vaccine on March 17:

Public-facing government and public employees
Not-for-profit workers who provide public-facing services to New Yorkers in need
Essential in-person public-facing building service workers

As of 11 am Tuesday 3,867,427 New Yorkers have received at least one vaccine dose and 1,930,053 are fully vaccinated. In the Hudson Valley 362,229 have at least one dose and 175,117 are fully vaccinated.

US Vaccination Rollout – When Will We Have a Vaccine Surplus?

There is no doubt that the U.S. is moving from a time of vaccine scarcity, when there is not enough vaccine to go around, to one of vaccine surplus, when it will be far easier for people who want a Covid vaccine to receive one. By early summer, barring a manufacturing catastrophe, there should be enough vaccine for every American.

The math behind the U.S. having enough supply to vaccinate roughly 260 million by the end of May depends a great deal on new, more aggressive timelines from Johnson & Johnson. A closer look at administration and industry statements also suggests officials know this.

House Will Vote This Morning on $1.9tn Covid Relief Bill

House will hold its final vote on the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package today. House majority leader Steny Hoyer said that the House will take up the bill at 9 am ET tomorrow morning.

OECD Global Forecast: 3.4% Shrinkage Last Year, and 5.6% Growth 2021

The world economy is set to rebound this year with 5.6% growth and expand 4.0% next year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its interim economic outlook. That marked a sharp increase from its last outlook in early December, when the Paris-based policy forum forecast global growth of 4.2% this year and 3.7% next year.

But significant risks loom over the improved outlook, notably in the form of how fast authorities get vaccine shots to people, how soon restrictions are lifted and whether new variants of the coronavirus are kept in check.

Manufacturers’ Optimism Keeps Rising – Cost of Materials Now Top Concern

In the NAM’s first-quarter 2021 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, manufacturers reported an increase in optimism for the third straight quarter. The survey found that 87.6% of manufacturers felt either somewhat or very positive about their company’s outlook. The number bounced back from the 33.9% reading in the second quarter of 2020, which was the worst since the Great Recession. More importantly, this suggests that manufacturers had the strongest outlook in two years, since the first quarter of 2019.

Increased costs of raw materials (76%) and the inability to attract and retain talent (66%) were the top-two biggest challenges facing manufacturers in 2021. Other top worries included rising health care and insurance costs (50.9%), transportation and logistics costs (50.2%), supply chain challenges with inventory management (48.7%) and an unfavorable business climate, including taxes and regulations (44.0%).

CDC Study: Obesity Increases the Risk for Severe COVID-19–Associated Illness

Among 148,494 U.S. adults with COVID-19, a nonlinear relationship was found between body mass index (BMI) and COVID-19 severity, with lowest risks at BMIs near the threshold between healthy weight and overweight in most instances, then increasing with higher BMI. Overweight and obesity were risk factors for invasive mechanical ventilation. Obesity was a risk factor for hospitalization and death, particularly among adults aged <65 years.

These findings highlight clinical and public health implications of higher BMIs, including the need for intensive management of COVID-19–associated illness, continued vaccine prioritization and masking, and policies to support healthy behaviors.

CDC Issues First Set of Guidelines on How Fully Vaccinated People Can Visit Safely with Others

The CDC issued its first set of recommendations on activities that people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 can safely resume. The new guidance—which is based on the latest science — includes recommendations for how and when a fully vaccinated individual can visit with other people who are fully vaccinated and with other people who are not vaccinated.

This guidance represents a first step toward returning to everyday activities in our communities. CDC will update these recommendations as more people are vaccinated, rates of COVID-19 in the community change, and additional scientific evidence becomes available.

Air Traffic Data Shows That the Travel Recovery Is Underway

According to flight-tracking data from RadarBox, the average number of business-jet flights last week came in higher than the corresponding week for 2020 and 2019 as well. In fact, the 2021 figure of 8,787 flights is 11.1% higher than in 2019. That’s a key figure because it implies that business travelers are ready to fly. If so, it will be good news for commercial airlines that are looking to attract business travelers back as they reopen routes.

Also according to RadarBox, domestic flights in China are also now up when compared to 2019, with the average number of commercial flights 19.5% ahead of the same period in 2019.

Machine Tool Orders Up 12% Over 2020

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers ordered new capital equipment worth $322.5 million during January, a -28.9% drop from the December order volume in the U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report issued by AMT – the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology. However, the new figure is 11.6% higher than the January 2020 total, supporting the case that a manufacturing recovery is in progress.

Significant increases were reported for metal-forming/fabricating orders, up +161.5% year-over-year nationwide, with even more remarkable increases in the North Central-East (+392.1% year/year) and West (+111.1%) regions.

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