Daily Briefing – 236

Post: Jan. 20, 2021

President Joe Biden Calls for Unity in Inaugural Address

Mr. Biden emphasized themes of unity and recovery in his inaugural address, messages that he returned to repeatedly on the campaign trail on his way to victory over President Trump. “We must end this uncivil war that pits red against blue,” he said. Former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama were in attendance and accompanied Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris to a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetery.

Mr. Biden was expected to sign a range of executive orders. The actions include revoking a permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline, and reversing a travel ban from several largely Muslim and African countries.

Vaccine Update: New York State Launches Vaccine Tracker Site

To date, New York’s health care distribution sites have administered 84 percent of doses received from the federal government – 907,870 First Doses and 136,500 second doses. In the Mid Hudson Region 80% of the 111,925 doses have been administered.

COVID and “Winter Cluster Plan” Update

Governor Cuomo held a press briefing yesterday afternoon providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Tuesday, January 19th.

Hospitalization tracking data for the Mid-Hudson region and the rest of the State are below.

Hospitalizations Statewide:

Patients Currently in Hospital = 9,273
COVID Hospitalizations as Percent of Population = .005%
Percent of Hospital Beds Available = 32%

Hospitalizations Mid-Hudson Region:

Patients Currently in Hospital in Region = 1,107
COVID Hospitalizations as Percent of Region Population = .005%
Percent of Hospital Beds Available in Region = 40%

ICU Beds Statewide

Total ICU Beds = 5,843
Occupied ICU Beds = 4220
Percent of ICU Beds Available = 26%

ICU Beds Mid-Hudson Region:

Total ICU Beds = 685
Occupied ICU Beds = 435
Percent of ICU Beds Available = 36%

Other Data

Statewide Transmission Rate (R0): .92
Statewide Positivity Rate: 6.84%
Mid-Hudson Positivity Rate: 7.70%

Useful Websites:

Johns Hopkins: US Daily Incidence May Be Plateauing

COVID-19 incidence in the US has declined steadily since January 11, down from 248,367 new cases per day to 221,692, a decrease of nearly 11%. In light of interrupted reporting over the recent holidays, it is difficult to accurately determine the longer-term trend in COVID-19 data. If the US daily incidence is plateauing or peaking, the exact timing of this transition is unclear. The current daily incidence is approximately equal to immediately prior to the Christmas holiday weekend. It is likely that reporting will be delayed to some degree by the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day holiday weekend, but data from this week and next will hopefully provide a better picture of the current US trend. COVID-19 mortality remains high, at 3,344 deaths per day, approximately equal to the record high of 3,357 reported on January 13

Big If: Cuomo Proposes 2 New York State Budgets, Contingent Upon Federal Aid

Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York State Budget Director Robert Mujica presented the Fiscal Year 2022 Executive Budget for the state Tuesday.

The governor said New York State is facing a $15 billion deficit this year. Tuesday the governor presented two budget proposals, each contingent on different aid packages from the federal government. The first budget, called a “worst case scenario” projects $6 billion in aid from Washington, while the other budget, “called a “fair funding scenario” projects $15 billion from D.C.

BDO: 50% of Manufacturers Plan to Secure Backup Suppliers in 2021

Nearly a quarter (24%) of those surveyed plan to relocate their supply chains to another country in 2021. Europe was listed as the most stable market outside of the U.S. to source materials long term. Only 10% said China was a stable location outside the U.S. for long-term sourcing. Of middle-market manufacturers surveyed, 22% reported plans to address supply chain weakness by reshoring to the U.S in 2021, following years of geopolitical tension, tariffs and labor expenses.

Nearly a quarter (24%) of those surveyed plan to relocate their supply chains to another country in 2021. Europe was listed as the most stable market outside of the U.S. to source materials long term. Only 10% said China was a stable location outside the U.S. for long-term sourcing.
Of middle-market manufacturers surveyed, 22% reported plans to address supply chain weakness by reshoring to the U.S in 2021, following years of geopolitical tension, tariffs and labor expenses.

GM Unites with Microsoft to Commercialize Autonomous Cruise

Microsoft announced January 19 a new partnership between it and General Motors’ self-driving Cruise business. The long-term strategic relationship will allow Cruise to utilize Microsoft’s cloud and edge computing platform, Azure, in order to “accelerate the commercialization” of Cruise’s fully-electric, self-driving vehicles operating at scale. Microsoft will become Cruise’s preferred cloud provider, and Azure will also become GM’s preferred public cloud provider for digitization initiatives, storage, artificial intelligence and machine learning.

With the new announcement, Microsoft will join Honda as an investor in the Cruise business; according to GM, the Cruise business is now valued at up to $30 billion.

Germany To Bring in Stricter Mask Rules for Public Transport

Germany has extended its current lockdown until mid-February, and introduced a mandate for people to wear medical-grade masks on public transport and in shops. Employers who require workers to come into the workplace, rather than working from home, will in future also have to provide them with medical-grade masks.

Also people travelling on buses, local trains or trams will have to wear “medical masks” under new rules, according to Spiegel. This refers to so-called surgical masks including types such as the FFP2. Masks with other protection standards or fabric coverings will no longer be permitted on public transport, and possibly in shops.

ISM Report Points to Manufacturing Growth in 2021

2021 is expected to point in the direction of economic improvement, for both the manufacturing and services sectors, according to the new edition of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Semiannual Economic Forecast, which was issued today. Data for this report is based on feedback from U.S.-based purchasing and supply chain executives in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

For manufacturing, ISM is estimating a 6.9% annual increase in 2021 revenue, which trailed the 10.3% prediction made in the May 2020 edition of the report and topped the 1.3% annual decline for 2020. And 59% of the report’s manufacturing survey respondents are calling for revenues to be up annually in 2021, with 15 of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by ISM pegged for revenue growth. The sector has been on an upswing going back to June 2020, and its December PMI, the reading used by ISM to measure growth, coming in at its highest level since August 2018.

President Biden Enters Office With Plans to Prevent Manufacturing Offshoring

Biden, a Democrat, takes office with a Democratic-majority House of Representatives and an incredibly thin Senate majority (a fifty-fifty split, with a Democratic Vice President, Kamala Harris, as a tiebreaker). He previously served in the Executive Branch as President Obama’s Vice-President.

On the campaign trail, President Biden’s manufacturing plan called for stiff tax penalties on companies that offshore operations and an advanceable tax credit for companies to modernize facilities or create jobs in the United States. Domestically, Biden favors higher taxes on corporations compared to Trump, and his Senate majority—slim as it is—may allow him to effectively reverse Trump’s laissez-faire policies.

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