Category: Legislation

Daily Briefing – 568

PPI = 8.7  Better, But Not Great

The producer price index, a gauge of prices received at the wholesale level, declined 0.1%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Wednesday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, core PPI increased 0.2%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting headline PPI to decline 0.1% and core to rise 0.3%.

On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI increased 8.7%, a substantial pullback from the 9.8% increase in July and the lowest annual rise since August 2021. Core PPI increased 5.6% from a year ago, matching the lowest rate since June 2021. As has been the case over the summer, the drop in prices came largely from a decline in energy. The index for final demand energy slid 6% in August, which saw a 12.7% slide in the gasoline index. That helped feed through to consumer prices, which fell sharply after briefly surpassing $5 a gallon at the pump earlier in the summer.

Read more at CNBC

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin Seek to Counter West in First In-Person Meeting Since Ukraine War Began – WSJ
• As War Began, Putin Rejected a Ukraine Peace Deal Recommended by Aide – Reuters
• China Gives Clearest Support for Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine So Far – Newsweek
• 5 Questions, 5 Answers: Can Ukraine Win the War? – Bloomberg
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy Makes Surprise Visit to Newly Recaptured City – The Guardian
• Kremlin TV Airs Call for Russia to Admit ‘Serious Defeat’ – Yahoo
• Ukraine Moving ‘Towards Victory,’ Zelenskyy Says; Troops Root Out ‘Collaborators’ in Reclaimed Territory – CNBC
• EU lays Out Energy Crisis Plan, Says Solidarity with Ukraine Unshakeable – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Rail “Cooling Off Period” Coming to and End – Disruptive Strike Increasingly Likely

Midnight on Thursday is the end of a federally mandated cooling off period for contract negotiations between 13 unions and the U.S. rail freight industry. If both sides don’t come to an agreement, the unions could launch a strike that would shatter supply chains and send the price of everything — food, gas, consumer products, you name it — into the stratosphere. The effects of a strike would be immediate and profound. Amtrak is already canceling service on routes that rely on freight lines and certain shipments for sensitive materials like ammonia — a key ingredient in fertilizer — have already been scuttled. 40 percent of the U.S.’s long-haul freight rides the rails.

At the heart of the dispute is a compromise proposal that an emergency board appointed by [President Joe] Biden issued last month. While most of the unions have tentatively agreed to those terms or appear close to doing so, train conductors and engineers say they will hold out for more protections against what they call harsh work rules. If the parties can’t agree on their own, the only way to avoid a strike falls to Congress. But lawmakers typically dislike getting involved in contract disputes, and Democrats are particularly allergic to stepping into the fracas.

Read more at Politico

NFIB: Inflation Eases For Some Small Businesses But Remains A Serious Problem

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.9 points in August to 91.8, marking the eighth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Twenty-nine percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, a decrease of eight points from July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979.

Key findings include:

• Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved 10 points from July to a net negative 42%, the highest level since February 2022, but a dismal outlook.
• The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased three points to a net 53% (seasonally adjusted), still a very inflationary outcome.
• Thirty-two percent of owners reported that supply chain disruptions have had a significant impact on their business. Another 33% report a moderate impact and 23% report a mild impact. Only 11% report no impact from recent supply chain disruptions.
• The Uncertainty Index increased seven points to 74.

Read more at the NFIB

Sanders Blocks Proposal to Force Rail Unions to Accept Labor Deal

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Wednesday blocked a Republican request to force railroad workers and companies to accept the recommendations of a nonpartisan panel to avoid a strike that would impact millions of Americans.  He argued that railroad companies are making huge profits and should start treating their workers more fairly.  

GOP senators, however, say their resolution would avoid a “disastrous” rail strike, which could freeze rail travel and freight shipment around the country.    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) accused Democrats of putting the economy at risk after Sanders blocked the resolution.  “Senate Democrats just blocked our bill that would have given railway workers a big raise and prevented a crippling strike and supply chain crisis. If a strike occurs and paralyzes food, fertilizer and energy shipments nationwide, it will be because Democrats blocked this bill,” he tweeted.

Read more at The Hill

US COVID – Johns Hopkins Slows Frequency of Covid-19 Data Publication

Johns Hopkins University is scaling back its comprehensive efforts to track the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data dashboard the university introduced in January 2020 has notched more than 800 million page views as government officials, researchers and this publication have scanned for context on cases, deaths and other metrics. But the dashboard has been increasingly hampered by a reduction in data reporting in the U.S. and beyond, according to university officials who run the project.

Starting Sep. 21, the platform will only update global case, death and vaccine data daily rather than every hour, project officials said. It will cease reporting testing numbers, which have become less reliable as people shift to at-home tests that health authorities generally don’t track. The Johns Hopkins platform will also start pulling vaccination-related data from other sources, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, rather than trying to collect it directly from local health agencies, its operators said.

Read more at the WSJ

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 11
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,826

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,179
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 234

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.94%    –   17.64 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 3.93%   –   16.15 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

End of the COVID-19 Pandemic is in Sight – WHO Chief

The world has never been in a better position to end the COVID-19 pandemic, the head of the World Health Organization said on Wednesday, urging nations to keep up their efforts against the virus that has killed over six million people.

“We are not there yet. But the end is in sight,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters at a virtual press conference.  The comment was the most optimistic from the UN agency since it declared COVID-19 an international emergency and started describing the virus as a pandemic in March 2020.

Read more at Reuters

Government Contractor Vaccine Mandate Ends

Following a bit of confusion caused by a recent court decision, the government has decided to officially call to an end the COVID-19 vaccine mandate that it had imposed last year on federal contractors and subcontractors. The Biden administration issued the order on Aug. 30 following a decision handed down four days earlier by the Eleventh Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, which ended a nationwide injunction against implementation of the vaccine order, thus throwing the matter into a state of confusion regarding whether the dormant mandate would still be enforced.

The executive order requiring federal contractors make sure their employees were vaccinated was announced in September 2021 and was considered to be part of a broader campaign launched by the Biden administration to ensure that as many Americans as possible were injected with the anti-Coronavirus vaccine. Other orders also imposed the vaccine requirement on the military and governments workers.

Read more at EHS Today

The State of the (European) Union

How will Europe get through winter without the Russian gas it has previously relied on? On Wednesday Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, proposed to raise €140bn ($140bn) through windfall taxes on energy companies to ease the burden of rising prices on households and businesses. During her annual “state of the union” address to the European Parliament Mrs. von der Leyen said that it was “wrong” for companies to make record profits as a result of the war in Ukraine.

The bloc is also discussing energy price caps and mandatory limits on electricity demand. Mrs. von der Leyen called energy markets unfit for purpose as they allowed the high price of gas to drive up electricity costs. Energy ministers from the EU’s 27 member states will thrash out the details at a meeting on September 30th. The priority will be for Europe to present a united front, even as it faces recession.

 Read the address at the EU

U.S. Banks Lost a Record $370 Billion in Deposits Last Quarter

Deposits at U.S. banks fell by a record $370 billion in the second quarter, the first decline since 2018. Deposits fell to $19.563 trillion as of June 30, down from $19.932 trillion in March, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.  The outflow in the quarter isn’t a problem for banks, which are sitting on more deposits than they want. Deposits in the banking system usually stay relatively stable, but swelled by some $5 trillion in the past two years due to pandemic stimulus.

When the Fed started increasing its benchmark rate this year, banks expected—and wanted—some customers to move their money to places offering higher interest payments, such as government bonds. As recently as April, many analysts scoffed at the idea bank deposits could decline this year. But the Fed’s pace of rate increases has been faster than expected, and the effect on deposits is more pronounced.  

Read more at the WSJ

4 Ways CEOs Should Respond to High Inflation

Yesterday’s unhappy inflation report sealed the deal: “brief and shallow” has been displaced by “higher and longer”—higher inflation and interest rates for a longer period of time. Investors and business leaders better get used to it. “It may take years to reduce inflation to the Fed’s target level,” says a paper out soon from McKinsey  “Companies need to draw on the proven playbook for success in a world of slower growth, higher inflation, and more expensive capital.” What does that playbook look like? The consulting firm offers four pieces of advice:

• Don’t pull back on growth projects. “Our research shows that growth-oriented leaders react decisively to shorter-term disruptions that can be turned into opportunities.”
• Build talent smartly. “Employers tend to overrate ‘transactional’ factors such as pay and development and underrate the ‘relational’ elements—a feeling of being valued by managers and the organization, the companionship of trusting teammates, a sense of belonging, a flexible work schedule—that employees say matter most.”
• Stay the course on sustainability. “In an economically constrained environment, a through-cycle view on sustainability can be a lever for companies to build resilience, reduce costs, and create value.”
• Rebuild your supply chain for resilience and efficiency. “We’ve found that a careful assessment of supply chain vulnerabilities can reveal opportunities to lower spending with high-risk suppliers by 40 percent or more.”

Read more at Fortune

Mortgage Demand from Homebuyers Falls 29% Since Last Year, as Interest Rates Surge Past 6%

Mortgage demand appears to have nowhere to go but down, as interest rates go up. Application volume dropped 1.2% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Labor Day. Since last year, homebuyers’ demand for mortgages has fallen by nearly a third.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 6.01% from 5.94%, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 0.79 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

Read more at CNBC

Battery Recycling Race Heats Up After Inflation Reduction Act

The world’s biggest auto makers are betting that recycled material from old batteries will help supply the metal they need to build electric cars. The latest wager is on a startup that says it can take advantage of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Jaguar Land Rover and South Korean battery giant SK Innovation Co. 096770 -1.82%▼ are among the investors putting more than $300 million into Ascend Elements, a startup that aims to serve an emerging center of battery production in the Southeastern U.S. The company says it has an efficient way to turn used lithium-ion batteries into new components. Other investors include Fifth Wall, a venture investor with a clean-energy focus. 

Read more at the WSJ

Cuomo Files Ethics Complaint Against AG

On Tuesday, former governor Andrew Cuomo filed a 48-page complaint against Attorney General Tish James with the Attorney Grievance Committee, which has the power to disbar New York lawyers. The complaint is an amalgamation of the points Cuomo and his team have argued since he voluntarily resigned amid sexual harassment allegations in August 2021: that James’ report was politically motivated and inflated the allegations made against him. It also targets the two investigators James tapped to handle the probe, Joon Kim and Anne Clark.

“James issued a Report, with the assistance of her hand-picked investigators Mr. Kim and Ms. Clark, that was grossly misleading, and purposefully omitted critical information that was inconsistent with credible allegations of sexual harassment,” Cuomo’s complaint reads.

Read more at Politico NY

Smaller Detroit Auto Show Kicks Off Ahead of Biden EV Address

A revived Detroit Auto Show kicked off in earnest Wednesday with presentations by GM and Stellantis brands ahead of an address by President Joe Biden expected to highlight electric vehicle investments. 

Chevrolet Vice President Steve Majoros spotlighted the General Motors brand’s electric versions of top-selling trucks. These include the massive Silverado pickup truck — typically the nation’s second most popular vehicle after the Ford F-series — and the Equinox, unveiled last Thursday with a starting price of $30,000, an affordable level in a pricey space.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Amazon Warehouse Workers in Albany Will Vote on Unionization in October

 While Amazon pursues legal challenges to the historic Staten Island union win, federal labor officials on Wednesday approved the election at the warehouse known as ALB1. In mid-October, 400 workers there will vote on whether to join the upstart Amazon Labor Union, the same independent group that unionized more than 8,000 at the massive Staten Island warehouse. It’s run by current and former Amazon workers, and led by a man whom Amazon fired after he led a pandemic-era walkout.

Amazon, meanwhile, continues to question whether union organizers gathered enough “legitimate signatures” to warrant the election. Rules require organizers to submit signatures from 30% of the workers they seek to represent. Federal labor officials had assessed this before ruling to schedule a vote.

Read more at NPR

Daily Briefing – 567

CPI = 8.3, Stocks Tank, Rates Rise as Fed Increases More Likely

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August reflected an 8.3% increase over last year and a 0.1% increase over the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Economists had expected prices to rise 8.1% over last year and fall 0.1% over last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg.

The S&P 500 tumbled 4.32%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.94%, or about 1276 points. The Nasdaq Composite slid 5.16% as rate-sensitive technology stocks took a heavy beating. The yield on the 10 year treasury climbed 65 basis points to 3.422%.  The reading also likely affirms that Federal Reserve officials will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at their policy-setting meeting Sept. 20-21 and again at its November meeting. 

Read more at YahooFinance

A closer look at the inflation numbers is below

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukraine Reclaims More Territory, Reports Capturing Many POWs – AP
• Russia’s War Plan Is Rocked by Ukraine’s Rapid Gains – WSJ
• Germany, EU Race to Fix Energy Crisis – Reuters
• Russia’s Defeats in Ukraine Have Strategists Worried about Moscow’s Next Move – CNBC
• Ukraine’s Economy Stabilizes, a Boost Alongside Rapid Military Gains – WSJ
• UN-Proposed Ammonia Deal for Ukraine Would Stabilise Grain Deal – Diplomat – Reuters
• Ukraine Piles Pressure on Retreating Russian Troops – AP
• Ukraine Pushes to Liberate all Land from Russia, Calls for Western Arms – Reuters
• US Fears Russian Energy Manipulation Could Fracture European Resolve on Ukraine – CNN
• EU Plans Sept 30 Summit to Greenlight Emergency Energy Plans – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

U.S. Incomes Were Flat Last Year, Census Figures Show

Median household income was essentially unchanged last year on an inflation-adjusted basis from the previous year and was recorded as about $70,800, the U.S. Census Bureau said Tuesday in its annual report on the nation’s financial well-being. The lack of any significant growth for 2021 follows a decrease in incomes recorded in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

The Census Bureau said the overall median household income for 2021 wasn’t statistically different from the 2020 estimate of about $71,200. Median household income in 2021 was highest in the West ($79,430) and Northeast ($77,472), followed by the Midwest ($71,129) and the South ($63,368), according to the bureau’s report.

Read more at the WSJ

White House “Urgently Discussing” Contingency Plans Amid Rail Shutdown Threat

The White House is urgently discussing contingency plans as the threat of a rail shut down looms, with agencies across the federal government working through how they could potentially use federal authority to keep critical supply chains operational as labor talks continue to sit at an impasse. The work has ramped up in recent days as officials have grown increasingly concerned about a labor strike if freight-rail labor negotiations fail to produce an agreement ahead of Friday’s deadline.

While officials have been closely watching the developments — and have gotten directly involved in an effort to find a resolution — for several weeks, the accelerated efforts to plan for a worst case scenario underscore the stakes of an outcome that would lead to massive supply chain disruptions, and dual-pronged political and economic risk. 

Read more at CNN

US COVID – Concerns about COVID in the Workplace 

According to a recent Gallup poll, one-third of adults are concerned about COVID-19 exposure in the workplace, a proportion that is relatively unchanged since November 2021. The percentage of people “not concerned at all” has increased from 23% in 2020 to a record high of 39%. The recent survey also shows significant gaps in results by gender—41% of working women are concerned about on-the-job exposure compared with 26% of working men.

Gaps also exist in political party affiliation—51% of Democrats expressed at least moderate concern compared with 14% of Republicans. Two-thirds of workers said they expect new COVID-19 cases to increase during the colder months, although the poll was conducted prior to the approval of updated booster doses. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 11
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,826

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,179
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 234

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.94%    –   17.64 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 3.93%   –   16.15 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Inside the Inflation Report

The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, the lowest in 4 months, from 8.5% in July but above market forecasts of 8.1%. Compared to the previous month, consumer prices were up 0.1%, following a flat reading in July and compared to forecasts of a 0.1% drop.

• Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. 
• The food index increased 0.8% in August 
• Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, jumped 0.7% and are up 6.2% from a year ago.
• Medical care services also showed a big gain, rising 0.8% on the month and up 5.6% from August 2021.
• New vehicle prices also climbed, increasing 0.8% U
• Used vehicles fell 0.1%.

Read more at CNBC

EU Stonewalls Over von der Leyen’s Role in Pfizer Vaccine Deal

With every passing day, the negotiations held between the European Commission and Pfizer over the EU’s largest COVID-19 vaccine contract look less like business as usual and more like a whodunnit. The plot thickened further after the European Court of Auditors published a report today, accusing the Commission of refusing to disclose any details of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s personal role in the talks.

The budget watchdog found that the EU chief threw out the existing rulebook to hash out a preliminary deal with the U.S. multinational, paving the way for a contract for up to 1.8 billion coronavirus vaccine doses to be signed in May 2021. For all the other vaccine deals struck by the EU between 2020 and 2021, a joint team comprising officials from the Commission and seven member countries conducted exploratory talks. The outcome was then taken to a Vaccine Steering Board made up of representatives from all 27 EU member states who signed off on it.

Read more at Politico

“New Paltz University” – Name Change in the Works 

In the coming weeks, the State University of New York College at New Paltz will see a change in its legal designation. It will no longer have a “college” status, but rather be known as a “university.” President Darrell Wheeler told the College Council on Monday the designation to New Paltz University is reflective of its advancements.

“It doesn’t change anything about the demands for us for research. It’s not moving us to be a research center. It’s just accepting now meet the new bar of recognition, which actually is a plus for us because it says you’ve done such great work in advancing your mission that you can have this designation,” he said.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

UAW Ends Strike at Stellantis Engine Parts Plant

Striking Kokomo Casting Plant union workers in Indiana ratified an agreement with Stellantis on Monday, ending a standoff after local contract negotiations broke down late last week. A prolonged strike at the plant likely would have threatened Stellantis production throughout North America.

“Stellantis is pleased that members of UAW Local 1166 at the Kokomo, Indiana, Casting Plant have ratified a new local agreement,” the company said in a statement Tuesday. “Operations at the plant resumed with third shift on Monday, Sept. 12.”

Read more at Auto News

Gas Prices May Spike Again This Winter As Europe Cuts Off Russian Oil, Yellen Says

Gas prices could jump again this winter following a monthslong decline in the United States, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Sunday, as the European Union plans to largely stop buying Russian oil in December as a gesture of disapproval of the war in Ukraine.

The average cost for a gallon of gas in the United States dipped to below $3.75 on Saturday, the lowest since March 2, just one week after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year. Earlier this month, finance ministers from the G7—a coalition of wealthy nations, including the United States—agreed to a price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, but are reportedly still trying to bring other countries on board. A White House official told CNBC the price cap is expected to go into effect before 2023.

Read more at Fortune

Competing to Win – NAM Offers Up a Policy Roadmap

The National Association of Manufacturers launched its new campaign to boost manufacturing competitiveness anchored by its policy roadmap, “Competing to Win.” Amid rising prices, snarled supply chains and geopolitical turmoil, the NAM’s plan features ideas that policymakers can pursue immediately.

The plan includes 12 areas of action from taxes, workforce development, immigration, infrastructure and supply chain.  Stay tuned for more details about the NAM’s campaign to take this agenda directly to policymakers, candidates and voters this fall.

Read more at the NAM

Energy Dept. Issues Plan for Industrial Decarbonization

The U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday published an industrial decarbonization road map, laying out a comprehensive strategy to reduce emissions associated with five sectors: chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, iron and steel, cement production, and the food and beverage industry.

Heavy industry is the source of about 30% of primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the United States, the department says. Its approach will focus on energy efficiency improvements, electrification, the use of low-carbon fuels, and carbon capture utilization and storage, or CCUS. Alongside the new road map, DOE announced a $104 million funding opportunity for industrial decarbonization technologies. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy called the road map a “landmark plan” to help companies address emissions at scale.

Read more at Utility Dive

Amazon Is Refining Delivery Operations as It Resets Logistics Network

Amazon.com Inc. appears to be fine-tuning its distribution strategy as it pauses its warehouse expansion across the U.S., consolidating operations in some areas while pulling back growth plans in secondary markets, according to logistics experts.  The e-commerce giant has canceled, closed and delayed facilities at each stage of its order fulfillment process, while continuing to move forward with large distribution centers that funnel goods into its home-delivery network. Amazon has shut down, called off or pushed back the openings of 66 delivery stations, fulfillment centers and other facilities as of this week, according to data from supply-chain consulting firm MWPVL International Inc.

Fourteen of the 15 buildings Amazon has closed have been delivery stations, the smaller facilities where the company prepares online orders for delivery to customers’ homes, said Marc Wulfraat, founder and president of MWPVL. Those sites have largely been in areas where the company had multiple facilities close to one another, he said, suggesting Amazon will consolidate the operations in fewer stations.

Read more at the WSJ

United Airlines Invests in Embraer Electric Air Taxis

United Airlines placed a $15-million investment in Eve Air Mobility – the “air taxi” business launched by Embraer SA in 2020 – and placed a conditional purchase agreement for 200 four-seat, electric aircraft. The agreement also includes options for 200 more of the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with the first deliveries as early as 2026. United Airlines is joining a consortium led by Eve that will simulate urban-air-mobility operations in Chicago starting on September 12.

Eve is one of several eVTOL start-ups in development now (by Airbus, Boeing, Honda, Toyota, and others) anticipating demand for air taxi operations for urban or local transportation and delivery services. The Embraer subsidiary is developing not only the electric aircraft but also a global service and support network and air-traffic-management technology.

Read more at American Machinist

Slower Manufacturing Rates Weaken Tool Demand

Machine shops and other U.S. manufacturers consumed $173.2 million worth of cutting tools during July 2022, -1.5% from the June consumption total and yet still 6.7% ahead of the July 2021 total. Through seven months of consumption data, U.S. manufacturers’ cutting-tool consumption has totaled $1.2 billion, 7.7% more than last year’s January-July total. Cutting tool consumption is a reliable index to overall manufacturing activity because cutting tools are a primary consumable product in use across multiple industrial sectors.

The data is supplied by the U.S. Cutting Tools Institute and AMT – the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology in their monthly Cutting Tool Market Report, which compiles data for actual purchases of cutting tools by companies representing a majority of the domestic market for cutting tools.

Read more at American Machinist

Daily Briefing – 566

Pattern Report: Rental Housing Remains Unaffordable for Average Residents Across the Hudson Valley

The report found that a single person making average wages cannot afford rent and modest living expenses in any of the counties. A renter making average wages falls short of their bills by $336 to $2,908, depending on the county in which they live. The outlook is equally difficult for families in rental housing, and worse for single parents.

“The conclusions in Out of Reach should trouble anyone who cares about the wellbeing of our neighbors who depend on rental housing. The Hudson Valley will struggle to sustain a workforce unless we understand the systems that created the imbalance between wages and rent, and actively seek solutions that will help people to live in our communities without emptying their pockets every month,” Pattern CEO Adam Bosch said. 

• Read more at Mid Hudson News
• Read the Report

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukraine Seizes the Initiative in the East – The Economist
• Moscow’s Narrative on Ukraine Frays at Home – The Guardian
• Putin Ally Calls Russian Retreat in Ukraine ‘Astounding’ – The Hill
• Ukraine Says Russian Strikes in Kharkiv City Revenge for Counterattack – Reuters
• Ukraine’s Second-Largest City Appears to be Without Power After Russian Strikes – NPR
• Ukraine Defeats Russia in Kharkiv – American Spectator
• Ukraine’s Rout of Russian Forces Poses Challenge of How to Exploit Gains – WSJ
• The G7’s Price Cap on Russian Oil Begins to Take Shape – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Covid-19 Illnesses Are Keeping at Least 500,000 Workers Out of U.S. Labor Force, Study Says

Millions of people left the labor force—the number of people working or looking for work—during the pandemic for various reasons, including retirement, lack of child care and fear of Covid. The total size of the labor force reached 164.7 million people in August, exceeding the February 2020 prepandemic level for the first time. The labor force would have 500,000 more members if not for the people sickened by Covid, according to the study’s authors, economists Gopi Shah Goda of Stanford University and Evan J. Soltas, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The analysis covered the period from January 2010 to June 2022. The authors used health-related, weeklong absences as a proxy for probable Covid illnesses. From March 2020 to June 2022, approximately 10 workers per thousand missed a week of work due to health reasons, on average, up from six per thousand on average over the decade before the pandemic.

Read more at the WSJ

Rail Workers Take Pre-Strike Actions

Starting today, U.S. freight railroads are poised to cut back on some service with a new union rail contract up for negotiation. The reduced service would come ahead of a potential rail strike date of Sept. 17 if talks fail to progress. While ten of the twelve railroad worker union have struck deals, the holdouts – Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the International Association of Sheet Metal Air, Rail and Transportation Workers – account for more than 90K rail employees.

A rail strike could disrupt the retail industry and giants like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD) if domestic trucking rates accelerated again. FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS) could also be impacted. Economists warn that an extended rail strike could weigh on food prices and be another contributor to inflation in the U.S., while the Association of American Railroads estimates that a strike would cost the economy $2B per day.

Read more at Bloomberg

US COVID – The Mystery of Why Some People Don’t Get Covid

In the early days of the pandemic, a small, tight-knit community of scientists from around the world set up an international consortium, called the COVID Human Genetic Effort, whose goal was to search for a genetic explanation as to why some people were becoming severely sick with Covid while others got off with a mild case of the sniffles. After a while, the group noticed that some people weren’t getting infected at all—despite repeated and intense exposures.

The most intriguing cases were the partners of people who became really ill and ended up in intensive care. The theory that these people might have preexisting immunity is supported by historical examples. There are genetic mutations that confer natural immunity to HIV, norovirus, and a parasite that causes recurring malaria. Why would Covid be any different, the team rationalized? 

Read more at Wired

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 11
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,826

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,179
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 234

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.94%    –   17.64 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 3.93%   –   16.15 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

New Private Venture Tackles the Riddle of Long Covid—and Aims to Test Treatments Quickly

A new, privately funded venture announced last week it has recruited more than 20 top scientists and is pouring $15 million raised so far into Long Covid research, with plans to launch clinical trials of treatments as soon as possible. The scientist who spearheaded the Long Covid Research Initiative (LCRI), microbiologist Amy Proal at the Washington state–based nonprofit PolyBio Research Foundation, says the goal is to bring in $100 million. Half would be dedicated to trials, which have thus far been sparse in the field.

LCRI was born after several patient advocates with Long Covid and a professional background in technology startups approached Proal early this year. “They were like, ‘We want to get better, we want to get better soon,’” Proal says. The advocates considered how to apply their startup mentality to the overwhelming challenge of Long Covid.

Read more at Science

The United States COVID-19 Testing Debacle

The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic was marred by numerous testing challenges. Though these challenges have been covered publicly at a high level, there has been no systematic accounting for and comprehensive analysis of why the United States was unable to  implement the testing efforts it needed to effectively respond to the pandemic. 

It was widely acknowledged by government officials that testing represented a critical first step in trying to slow the transmission of the virus. It was similarly known throughout much of the pandemic that existing testing efforts were inadequate to meet demands and to support public health efforts to control the spread of the virus. And yet, a clear plan was never developed to guide the work of laboratories and to ensure that they had what they needed in order to achieve these goals.

Read more at Global Health

Hochul Ends COVID-19 State of Emergency 

Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Monday she will not extend the COVID-19 state of emergency amid falling caseloads and rising criticism of her use of the powers ahead of the Nov. 8 election that has seen Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin close the gap on her once-big lead.

While an order giving hospitals more leeway to hire health care staff has been relatively uncontroversial, the same cannot be said about Hochul suspending state contract rules that have led to accusations of pay-to-play politics involving the governor.

Read more at The NY Post 

Four Action Steps for Shoring Up OT Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity isn’t a foreign concept to industrial enterprises. Management, engineers and technicians can’t help but see the headlines in the trade and business press, regardless of their sector. In fact, a 2019 global survey of 282 industrial companies operating in critical infrastructure and process industries revealed that 80% consider operational technology (OT) cybersecurity to be a high priority. However, that same survey found that only 31% had implemented an incident response program and only 57% had committed any budget to cybersecurity.

The following are four steps that industrial enterprises may consider to deploy and harden OT cybersecurity, in addition to improving their resiliency and data/business recovery times should an intrusion occur.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Control of the House of Representatives Could be Decided in New York

The road for control of the House might just run along the Hudson River. Instead of serving up new Democratic lawmakers for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a mix of open seats and new ones drawn up in New York’s messy redistricting process have turned a deep blue state into a battleground as Democrats are desperate to defend their thin margins in Washington.

By many predictions, New York has as many contested seats as any state in the nation, and POLITICO’s Election Forecast puts two as toss-ups; three as leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican. That makes New York — which hasn’t elected a Republican statewide in 20 years — one of the most unlikely stages of political theater this election cycle.

Read more at Politico

European Manufacturers Reel From Russian Gas Shutoff

Europe’s energy crisis has left few businesses untouched, from steel and aluminum to cars, glass, ceramics, sugar and toilet-paper makers. Some industries, such as the energy-intensive metals sector, are shutting factories that analysts and executives say might never reopen, imperiling thousands of jobs.

The question is whether the current pain is temporary, or marks the start of a new era of deindustrialization in Europe. The bloc has scoured the world for alternative gas supplies, striking deals to buy gas from the U.S., Qatar and elsewhere. But the continent might never again have access to the cheap Russian gas that helped it compete with the resource-rich U.S. and offset high labor costs, rigid employment rules and stringent environmental regulations.

Read more at the WSJ

New Jobs Report Shows Salary Increases are Nearly on Par with Inflation – Job Hoppers Do Best

An August report by ADP looked at annual pay increases, finding that salaries were increasing rapidly, nearly on par with inflation. Annual pay rose by 7.6% in the period leading up to August 2022, compared to an average increase of 2% in early 2021. Employees working for larger firms saw bigger increases: companies with more than 500 employees raised salaries by 8.3% on average, while companies with 1 to 19 employees only saw a 5.4% average bump in pay. 

Again, different industries saw different increases, per the report. The largest leisure and hospitality sector and trade, transportation, and utilities experienced the largest boost in average salary, at 12.1% and 8.4% respectively. On the other end of the spectrum, pay in construction only increased by 6.7%. But the biggest raises went to job hoppers. While loyal employees got salary gains of 7.6%, people who changed jobs got an average increase in pay of 16.1%.

Read more at Benefits Pro

Millennials Want to Live a ‘Soft Life,’ and it’s Changing How They Work

Life has changed a lot in the last two years, and many people are embracing a so-called “soft life”—a rejection of the struggle, stress, and anxiety that comes with working a traditional 9-to-5 career and spinning away your days on life’s hamster wheel. Instead, living the soft life is about throwing yourself into joy, and prioritizing the richness of experiences. Many Americans used the pandemic as an opportunity to disrupt their lives. The collective trauma of this worldwide tragedy allowed some to pump the breaks, turn into the skid and realize that perhaps there was something more important in their lives than the stressing over whether they were living for their job hard enough.

Quiet quitting—the internet’s favorite workforce term of the moment—its distant cousin, lying flat, and soft life, have all popped up as symptoms of a shift away from the traditional expectations of what it looks like to be successful in America. Living a soft life doesn’t necessarily mean you don’t have a job, it just means your job is not your whole world.

Read more at Fortune

Jeep Unveils Plans To Bring Four New EV Models to the Market by 2025

Jeep has revealed plans to launch four new models of electric SUVs in North America by 2025. Amongst the new models include the luxurious Grand Wagoneer and the Wrangler-inspired off-road car, the Recon. Jeep has outlined an aggressive electric vehicle plan to launch itself into becoming North America’s quintessential SUV brand in the new age.

The parent company, Stellantis, revealed that it hopes that half of its U.S. sales and all its European sales, be from all-electric vehicles by 2030. Jeep has confirmed that the new EV models are slated to be additions to the current brand’s lineup of cars, nut not replacements for current models. The Recon is labeled as a “brother” to the Wrangler, while the “S” also known as the electric Grand Wagoneer is expected to go into production in 2024. A smaller SUV by the name of the Avenger, and is considered the brand’s entry-level Jeep Renegade. Currently.

Read more at Hype

Daily Briefing – 565

Model: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August

Looking ahead to a government inflation report to be released on Tuesday, many Wall Street analysts estimate the Labor Department’s overall consumer-price index was unchanged or dropped in August from July. If so, it would mark the second straight month of slower inflation since annual inflation surged to a four-decade high in June.

“We are experiencing a slowdown driven by the decline in fuel prices, but there is still significant upward pressure in such important categories as food, household items and healthcare products,” said Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard Business School professor who in 2008 created a “billion price” index that tracked dollar amounts of online consumer transactions. “We are not out of the woods yet.”

Read more at the WSJ

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Zelenskiy Says Next Three Months Critical as Ukrainian Advance Continues – The Guardian
• Russia Sends Reinforcements to Kharkiv as Ukrainians Advance – CNN
• Ukraine Troops Raise Flag Over Railway Hub as Advance Threatens to Turn into Rout – Reuters
• Ukrainian Flag Raised Over Balakliya After Surprise Ukrainian Counter-Offensive in Kharkiv Oblast – Yahoo
• U.S. Announces More Than $2.6 Billion in Ukraine-Related Military Assistance – WSJ
• Ukraine, Neighbors, to Get Big New Aid, Blinken Says in Kyiv – AP
• Last Reactor at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Stopped – NPR
• Russian Billionaire Mikhail Fridman Offers $1 Billion to Ukraine in Hope of Sanctions Relief – WSJ
• Putin: Russia May Halt Energy Exports if West Caps Prices – AP
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

U.S. Debt: Annualized Interest Surges More Than $22B In A Single Month

The Treasury added $341B of debt in August. This was the largest increase in debt since January and is more than 10 times larger than the increase in July. Another major occurrence was the increase in short-term debt. The Treasury increased Bills by $210B, the largest increase since June 2020. This is a move that runs counter to the recent months where the Treasury has been actively decreasing short-term holdings.

Treasury has extended the average maturity of the debt to record highs. Current average maturity is 6.19 years, up from 5.76 just before Covid hit. The average maturity was at 5.15 at the depths of debt issuance in 2020, which was primarily short-term in nature.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Powell Vows to Raise Rates to Fight Inflation ‘Until the Job is Done’

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in an appearance Thursday emphasized the importance of getting inflation down now before the public gets too used to higher prices and comes to expect them as the norm. In his latest comments underlining his commitment to the inflation fight, Powell said expectations play an important role and were a critical reason why inflation was so persistent in the 1970s and ’80s.

“History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy,” the central bank leader said in a Q&A presented by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank based in Washington, D.C. “I can assure you that my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done.” The event was Powell’s last scheduled public appearance before the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 20-21.

Read more at CNBC

US COVID – Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths Continue to Fall

The US CDC is reporting 94.8 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,043,171 deaths. Average daily incidence continues to decline, down to 74,803 on September 6 from 88,286 on August 30—the lowest average since the beginning of May. Average daily mortality continues to decline, down to 336 on September 6 from a recent high of 495 on August 12. Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations continue to decline, down 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively, over the past week. Both trends peaked around the last week of July, similar to trends in daily incidence.

The BA.5 sublineage is projected to account for 88.6% of sequenced specimens in the US. While BA.5 remains the overwhelmingly dominant Omicron subvariant, the prevalence of the BA.4.6 sublineage is increasing. BA.4.6 remains the #2 subvariant nationwide, now accounting for 8.4% of sequenced cases, while BA.4 now accounts for 2.8% of cases. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 11
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,826

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,179
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 234

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.94%    –   17.64 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 3.93%   –   16.15 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

4 Things to Know About the Bivalent Booster Campaign Rollout

The fall campaign for updated Covid-19 boosters is ramping up ahead of the flu season, with pharmacies adding appointments for the newly authorized shots that officials believe will offer greater protection against currently circulating variants.

The latest efforts come as CDC-reviewed modeling projections show that if Americans take the updated Covid shots at the same rate as the annual flu shot, as many as 9,000 lives could be spared and 100,000 hospitalizations could be avoided. And the White House last week said that future national strategies to bolster Covid-19 immunity will fall in line with the annual flu campaign.

Read more at Politico

Industrial Producer Prices up by 4.0% in the Euro Area and by 3.7% in the EU

In July 2022, industrial producer prices rose by 4.0% in the euro area and by 3.7% in the EU, compared with June 2022, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In June 2022, prices increased by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU. In July 2022, compared with July 2021, industrial producer prices increased by 37.9% in the euro area and by 37.8% in the EU.

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in July 2022, compared with June 2022, increased by 9.0% in the energy sector, by 1.2% for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.9% for durable consumer goods, by 0.8% for capital goods and by 0.1% for intermediate goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.6%. In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 8.2% in the energy sector, by 1.1% for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.9% for durable consumer goods, by 0.8% for capital goods and by 0.1% for intermediate goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.6%.

Read more at EuroStat

ECB Goes Big With .75 % Rate Hike as Lagarde Hints More to Come

The European Central Bank on Thursday announced a 75 basis point interest rate rise, taking its benchmark deposit rate to 0.75%. “This major step frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to the ECB’s 2% medium-term target,” it said in a statement.

It added it “expects to raise interest rates further, because inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above target for an extended period.”

Read more at CNBC

As Britain Mourns the Death of Queen Elizabeth II its Energy Cost Capping Scheme Will Move Forward

Britain will go ahead with plans to introduce an energy price guarantee from Oct. 1, Prime Minister Liz Truss’s spokesman said on Friday, despite the period of national mourning triggered by the death of Queen Elizabeth. Truss on Thursday capped soaring consumer energy bills for two years to cushion the economic shock of war in Ukraine with measures likely to cost the country upwards of 100 billion pounds ($115 billion), giving little detail on how it would be paid for.

“The public should be reassured that the energy price guarantee will be in place for households from the first of October as planned,” the spokesman told reporters. A spokesman said that the initial implementation of the guarantee was through private contracts with suppliers, rather than through legislation.

Read more at Reuters

Labor Board Proposes New Joint Employer Rule

The National Labor Relations Board is proposing a rule that would count an employer as a company that controls, “whether directly, indirectly or both,” the work requirements, wages or hiring of a worker. “Contracting as a whole could face legal jeopardy in the context of this rule,” said US Chamber of Commerce’s Glenn Spencer.

That raises the possibility that a company that hires a contractor to run a cafeteria or clean the office could be considered a joint employer of the contractors’ workers. Or it could mean that a fast food or hotel chain requiring workers to cook food or clean rooms a certain way could be considered an employer even if those workers are hired and paid by franchisees.

Read more at the WSJ

Over $100 Million Announced for Southern Tier Battery Manufacturing Hub

The Southern Tier has always been known for its manufacturing roots, but like many regions, jobs and factories have left the area and there hasn’t been a lot of good news, really, for decades. Now, thanks to a $67.3 million grant and an additional $50 million from the state, the birthplace of IBM could be returning to its industrial roots.

At the site of buildings that once employed thousands, a new workforce will begin manufacturing batteries and training companies from across the country to produce them in the U.S. Students at BU have already begun training in the field under Nobel Prize winner Dr. Stan Whittingham, who’s known as the godfather of lithium-ion batteries. 

Read more at Spectrum News

Automakers Work to Strengthen EV Battery Supply Chains

As demand for electric vehicles grows in the US, Tesla and Toyota are building domestic EV battery production facilities to abbreviate the supply chain and avoid shortages. Meanwhile, Ford and GM are adding more suppliers for raw materials such as nickel, graphite and lithium.

Industry observers warn that global graphite demand could soon outstrip supply, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is among a number of executives sounding the alarm on lithium processing constraints. At the same time, companies are striving to shift sourcing and production to North America in order to qualify for the Biden administration’s EV tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. 

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Supply Chain- Beating the Inflation, Shortage Double Whammy 

It seems that by now no company is unscathed by the double trouble of inflation and supply shortages. Emerging winners are taking a strategic approach to procurement to keep costs below inflation. In some areas, they are even generating P&L gains while assuring supply security and quality. At the other end, for some companies, inflation and supply shortages are eroding earnings.

Past experience offers valuable lessons: Top-performing companies that accelerated out of the last period of high inflation were those that made productivity improvement a top priority. We expect leaders to repeat this pattern as inflation ticks up again. What’s different this time is that the capabilities that enabled procurement organizations to generate year-over-year cost reductions in the past are not enough in the face of today’s turbulent conditions.

Read more at Supply Chain Management

U.S. Jobless Claims Fall for Fourth Straight Week

Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 last week from a revised 228,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims have been ticking down in August after moving up earlier in the summer. The latest claims data is consistent with other recent gauges that show the U.S. job market is strong, but cooling from earlier this year, when layoffs were even lower and hiring more robust.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, fell by 7,500 to 233,000. So far in 2022, weekly initial claims are averaging around 214,000, about the same level as the 2019 weekly average of around 218,000. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people who have been unemployed and have received benefits for more than one week increased to 1.47 million in the week ended Aug. 27 from 1.44 million the previous week. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag.

Read more at the WSJ

Data Shows Unprecedented Decline in Human Development

A report published by the U.N. Development Program finds the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, economic uncertainty and other crises have halted progress in human development and reversed gains made over the past three decades. Data from 191 countries show 90% failed to achieve a better, healthier, more secure life for their people in 2020 and 2021. For the first time in 32 years, the UNDP’s Human Development Index, which measures a nation’s progress, finds human development has declined for two years running.

U.N. Development Program administrator Achim Steiner said that is unprecedented. The Human Development Index captures a picture of a nation’s health, education, and standard of living. This year’s rankings show some countries are beginning to get back on their feet, while others remain mired in deepening crises. The report finds Latin America, the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia have been particularly hard hit.

Read more at Voice of America

Democrats, Environmentalists Warm to Nuclear Power for Quicker Transition to a Green Energy Future

Nuclear power, once shunned by many Democrats and environmentalists, is gaining acceptance among the party and activists as a clean alternative to fossil fuels amid soaring energy costs and a sluggish transition to renewables. Proponents argue that the carbon-free energy source is clean and affordable, can be generated around the clock and is already prevalent. Wind and solar power, meanwhile, are intermittent and hamstrung by limited battery storage capabilities.

Included in the recent reconciliation legi  slation were nuclear production tax credits for existing facilities and incentives to build smaller, safer and more affordable reactors. Last year’s bipartisan infrastructure deal allocated $6 billion to help the U.S.’s 54 aging nuclear facilities.

Read more at the Washington Times

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Daily Briefing – 564

New York Lifts Mask Mandate for Public Transit, Correctional Facilities, Shelters – Bivalent Boosters Available 

New Yorkers are no longer required, but still encouraged, to wear masks on subway trains, correctional facilities, detention centers and homeless shelters, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Wednesday. Masks, however, must still be worn in health care settings and adult care facilities, including nursing homes. Signs will be posted in transit centers to encourage mask use, but also note they are optional.

Governor Hochul also yesterday announced the availability of bivalent COVID-19 vaccine boosters, which are designed to add Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants and bolster previous vaccination protection.  To schedule an appointment for the updated COVID-19 booster, New Yorkers should contact their regular health care provider, local pharmacy, or local county health department. New Yorkers can also visit vaccines.gov, text their ZIP code to 438829, or call 1-800-232-0233 to find nearby locations.     

• Read more at Politico
• Visit vaccines.gov

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukrainian Troops Launch Counter-Offensive Near Kharkiv – The Times 
• EU Plans to Cap Russian Gas Price as Putin Warns West of Winter Freeze – Reuters
• NATO Chief : European Countries Will ‘Pay a Price’ this Winter for Ukraine Support – The Hill
• Putin Threatens to Abandon Grain Deal, Further Squeeze Energy Supplies – WSJ
• How the Russian Oil Price Cap Will Work – Fortune
• Inside the Fight to Fend off Hackers at Ukraine’s Largest Telecom – Politico 
• Europe Scrambles to Protect Citizens from Sky-High Energy Prices – The Economist
• Ukraine Military Chief Claims Responsibility for Strikes in Crimea – Reuters
• Ukraine Calls for Evacuation of Russian-Occupied Nuclear Plant Town – NBC
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

CHIPS Act: U.S. Releases New Implementation Strategy

The U.S. Department of Commerce today published “A Strategy For The CHIPS For America Fund,” outlining its implementation approach to distributing $50 billion from the CHIPS Act of 2022. The paper includes recommendations for potential grant applicants along with identifying criteria against which applicants will be considered, thought specific funding application guidance will not be released until February 2023.

Tech firms which receive federal funding under its new CHIPS Act will not be allowed to build any “advanced technology” facilities, or factories, in China for ten years. The move was justified on national security grounds, amidst fears of China stealing such technology. America also wants to rebuild its own share of the global semiconductor market, now just 10%, down from nearly 40% in 1990.

Read more at Semiengineering

China Trade Surplus With U.S. Narrows to $36.77 Billion in August

China’s exports and imports lost momentum in August with growth significantly missing forecasts as surging inflation crippled overseas demand and fresh COVID curbs and heatwaves disrupted output, reviving downside risks for the shaky economy. Exports rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, slowing from an 18.0% gain in July and marking the first slowdown since April, official data showed on Wednesday, well below analysts’ expectations for a 12.8% increase.

The slower growth is also in part due to unflattering comparisons with strong exports last year, but also worsened by more COVID restrictions as infections spiked and heatwaves disrupted factory output in southwestern areas.

Read more at Reuters

US COVID – Senate GOP Opposes Biden Request for COVID, Monkeypox Funds

Senate Republicans will oppose President Joe Biden’s request for billions in funding to combat the ongoing Covid-19 and monkeypox pandemics, setting up a potential fight over a must-pass government funding bill. “We just don’t think that’s necessary,” number two Senate Republican John Thune told reporters Tuesday. “There’s still plenty of money still swirling around from previous Covid bills.”

The White House last week asked Congress for $22 billion for Covid vaccines, testing and treatments, and $4 billion in funding for monkeypox. The Biden administration has warned that without new funding, the US would be unprepared to combat new more virulent Covid variants should they emerge this fall. 

Read more at Bloomberg

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 16
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,697

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,235
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 235

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.78%    –   19.96 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 4.10%   –   18.60 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Updated COVID-19 Booster Shots are Now Available. Here’s What You Need to Know

On Sept. 1, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention endorsed the use of updated COVID-19 booster shots that are specifically tailored to combat the two most prevalent omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5. As of Aug. 31, 2022, only 48.5% of booster-eligible people in the U.S. have received their first booster shot, and just under 34% of those eligible have received their second. These low numbers may in part be influenced by people waiting for the newer versions of the vaccines to provide better protection. 

Prakash Nagarkatti and Mitzi Nagarkatti are immunologists who study infectious disorders and how vaccines trigger different aspects of the immune system to fight infection. They weigh in on how the updated booster shots train the immune system and how protective they might be against COVID-19.

Read more at NPR

German Industrial Orders Fall Sixth Month in a Row

German industrial orders fell for the sixth month in a row in July as the war in Ukraine continues to take its toll on Europe’s largest economy, the economy ministry said on Tuesday. Orders for industrial goods were down 1.1% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms, figures from the federal statistical office showed. Compared with July 2021, orders were down 13.6%.

In a Reuters poll, analysts had predicted a 0.5% decline in July after orders fell by an upwardly revised 0.3% in June. Domestic orders in particular fell 4.5% in July while orders from abroad grew by 1.3%, according to the statistics office.

Read more at Reuters

Apple Unveils iPhone 14, Apple Watch Ultra, Series 8, New AirPods Pro

Apple unveiled the iPhone 14 lineup as well as updates to its Apple Watch and AirPods Pro today at its first in-person event since the pandemic began. Here’s the latest:

• iPhone: Apple revealed the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro models, along with a range of new safety features including those that the tech giant says can save your life.
• Watch: The company showed off a new lineup of smartwatches, including the Apple Watch Series 8 and the athlete-focused Watch Ultra, which Personal Tech columnist Nicole Nguyen calls “the watch I’ve been waiting for.”
• AirPods: Apple also unveiled the second generation AirPods Pro, its small, higher-end wireless earbuds.

There are some new choices. For instance, at $599, you could either get an iPhone 12 with a 6.1-inch screen or an iPhone 13 Mini with 5.4-inch screen. There are now four 6.1-inch models to choose from—12, 13, 14 or 14 Pro—each with variations on processor and camera, in a $400 range.

Read more at CNBC

U.S. Dollar Hits 24-Year High, Oil Prices Tank

US oil tumbled 5.1% to $82.41 a barrel in recent trading. That’s the lowest intraday price since January 24. US crude is now down by more than one-third since briefly hitting $130 a barrel in early March. Brent crude, the world benchmark, dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time since February 8. Brent was recently down 4.6% to $88.55 a barrel.

The selling comes just days after OPEC and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, reversed course by cutting production to support prices. Analysts cited a range of factors behind Wednesday’s losses, including concerns about the health of the world economy and the skyrocketing US dollar. A stronger US dollar tends to weaken demand for oil overseas. The dollar surged to a 24-year peak against the yen and a 37-year high versus sterling on Wednesday, as Japan’s dovish monetary policy and Europe’s economic problems contrasted with a relatively stronger U.S. economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve determined to bring down inflation to its 2% inflation target.

Read more at CNN Business

The Analyst Who Predicted the 2008 Housing Bust—Sees U.S. Home Prices Falling in Both 2023 and 2024

“Poison Ivy.” That’s what housing bulls called analyst Ivy Zelman after she came out in 2005 and called the top of the housing bubble. Back in February, the founder of Zelman & Associates called the “peak” of the Pandemic Housing Boom. She was on the money again. Just weeks later, spiked mortgage rates pushed the U.S. housing market into a slowdown. This summer, as the housing correction intensified, Zelman provided a bearish assessment of U.S. home prices to clients of her boutique housing research firm.

“As fast as [inventory levels] are rising and demand is plummeting, we could see pretty substantial [home] price corrections. But it’s going to vary by market,” Zelman says. “I don’t think this will just end quickly. This is going to be a very pressured market nationally in 2023 and 2024.”

Read more at Fortune

Schools Are Back and Confronting Severe Learning Losses

For two years, schools and researchers have wrestled with pandemic-era learning setbacks resulting mostly from a lack of in-person classes. They are struggling to combat the learning loss, as well as to measure just how deep it is. Some answers to the second question are becoming clear. National data show that children who were learning to read earlier in the pandemic have the lowest reading proficiency rates in about 20 years.

While some students have begun to make up ground, researchers say that, on average, it could take five years or more for today’s fourth-graders to read proficiently unless the pace accelerates. By then, billions of dollars in federal pandemic-related aid for education will have run out.

Read more at the WSJ

Potential Rail Strike Threatens to Kneecap US Economy Ahead of Midterms

A potential nationwide freight rail strike is looming, threatening to cripple the U.S. economy ahead of the holiday shopping season and November’s midterm elections.  Roughly 115,000 rail workers could walk off the job as soon as Sept. 16 if they cannot agree to a new contract with railroads.  

Five of the 13 unions representing rail workers have reached tentative agreements with railroads to enact the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) recommendations, which call for 24 percent pay raises, back pay and cash bonuses. But the bulk of railroad workers belong to unions that haven’t yet agreed to a deal. It’s also unclear whether workers would vote to ratify PEB recommendations that don’t address their concerns about punishing hours and rigid schedules that make it difficult to take time off for any reason. 

Read more at The Hill

Tooling and Workholding Markets Poised for Growth

The market for manufacturing technology has experienced a significant rebound since the brief downturn triggered by COVID-19 shutdowns in early 2020. While orders for machinery have increased well beyond their pre-pandemic levels, orders for workholding technologies, as well as shipments of the cutting tools used in the machinery, have not yet surpassed 2019 levels.

The divergence between the orders for new machinery and shipments of tooling or orders for workholding is the first time this pattern has emerged in recent history. The last time machinery orders and tooling shipments were out of sync for a similarly long period of time was in the early 1980s, prior to a prolonged downturn in the manufacturing technology industry. While the recent divergence could be an ominous sign, there are several reasons the economy and the industry are not the same as 40 years ago.

Read more at SME

High Natural Gas Prices Will Cripple Europe And Hurt U.S. Consumers This Winter

Russian gas supply cutoffs will devastate the European economy this winter, starting with Germany. United States consumers will not be spared pain; natural gas prices are up 95% on US futures markets for the crucial November through March time period.

When comparing last year’s September 1, 2021 closing prices of the five month winter contract natural gas price strip that runs from November through March, the prime winter heating months, against those of September 1, 2022, U.S. natural gas futures markets are up a stunning 95% year-over-year.

Read more at Fortune

A Cosmic Tarantula, Caught by NASA’s Webb

NASA tweeted a photo of a “giant space tarantula” captured by the James Webb Space Telescope. At only 161,000 light-years away in the Large Magellanic Cloud galaxy, the Tarantula Nebula is the largest and brightest star-forming region in the Local Group, the galaxies nearest our Milky Way. It is home to the hottest, most massive stars known. Astronomers focused three of Webb’s high-resolution infrared instruments on the Tarantula.

Viewed with Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam), the region resembles a burrowing tarantula’s home, lined with its silk. The nebula’s cavity centered in the NIRCam image has been hollowed out by blistering radiation from a cluster of massive young stars, which sparkle pale blue in the image. Only the densest surrounding areas of the nebula resist erosion by these stars’ powerful stellar winds, forming pillars that appear to point back toward the cluster. These pillars contain forming protostars, which will eventually emerge from their dusty cocoons and take their turn shaping the nebula.

Read more at NASA

Daily Briefing – 563

Mfg Day is October 7th – One Month Away 

MFG Day is manufacturing’s biggest annual opportunity to inspire the next generation to start careers in modern manufacturing through a series of focused events to promote manufacturing to students, parents and educators on the first Friday of October continuing throughout the rest of the month. 

Manufacturers across the region and the nation will be hosting events and inviting young people, as well as educators and policy makers to learn more about their businesses. Fair-Rite Products and the Council of Industry will host the Hudson Valley Focus Live Radio show from 6:00 – 9:00 am on October 7th. Guests will include Fair- Rite leadership and employees, educators and elected officials. Hudson Valley Focus Live is hosted by Tom Sipos on News Radio WKIP, Poughkeepsie 1450 am.  Others are in the works

• Learn more about Mfg Day
• View Mfg Day Resources

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Gazprom Says Nord Stream 1 Resumption Depends on Siemens Energy – Reuters
• Ukraine Warns of Risks to Nuclear Plant Ahead of U.N. Inspectors’ Report – WSJ
• Russia Says United States is Behind Europe’s Gas Supply Crisis – Reuters
• Russia Purchasing Military Equipment from North Korea, US Assesses – The Hill
• The Chips are Down: Putin Scrambles for High-Tech Parts as His Arsenal Goes up in Smoke – Politico
• Russian Shelling Kills Three Civilians in Kharkiv Region, Governor Says –  Reuters
• Zelensky Pitches Investors on Ukraine While Virtually Ringing NYSE Bell – The Hill
• Invest in the Future of Ukraine, Zelensky Writes – WSJ
• Inside the Mission to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: Shellfire, Brinkmanship and Backchannels – WSJ
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Small Businesses are Still Desperate for Workers Even as Other Companies Slow Hiring 

Hiring at U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees has slowed for five straight months, according to data from Paychex and IHS Markit, but ADP President Steve Mucci said that has more to do with a lack of applicants than a reflection of small businesses pulling back.

“For small businesses, the toughest thing is they have the demand, and they have the need for workers — they just have a little bit harder time finding it,” he said. That is counter to what is happening at some larger companies. In August, private payrolls grew by 132,000, a drop from the 268,000 gain seen in July, according to ADP’s monthly payroll report.

Read more at CNBC

Lawmakers Want to Hike New York’s Minimum Wage Rates Next Year – Index to Inflation

A coalition of state lawmakers and advocates will push in next year’s legislative session to raise the minimum wage incrementally over the next few years on three separate tiers – New York City, downstate (Long Island and Westchester) and upstate – until likely 2025, then peg the minimum wage to inflation annually thereafter. That kind of annual indexing is already done in 16 states and Washington, D.C.

A version of such a bill, introduced in the state Senate by Sen. Jessica Ramos, died in the previous legislative session – due largely, advocates said, to having been introduced late, with little time to promote it properly. The bill called for raising the minimum wage by 2025 to more than $20 in New York City, to $17.95 downstate and to $15.75 upstate – and then pegging those floors to inflation going forward.

Read more at City & State

US COVID – White House Signals Most People Will Only Need Annual COVID Booster

As part of its push to encourage vaccine-weary Americans to get the updated Covid shot, the White House put forth a new selling point Tuesday: to view it as a first annual shot, akin to the annual flu shot. The messaging from the White House — part of a briefing where health officials outlined the rollout of the new bivalent booster shots authorized last week — reflects another transition point in the country’s fight against the coronavirus. Federal health officials last month, for example, tossed out quarantine and certain testing guidelines.

“It is becoming increasingly clear, that looking forward with the Covid-19 pandemic, in the absence of a dramatically different variant, we likely are moving towards a path with a vaccination cadence similar to that of the annual influenza vaccine, with annual updated Covid-19 shots matched to the currently circulating strains for most of the population,” Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease official, said at the briefing.

Read more at STAT News

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 16
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,697

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,235
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 235

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.78%    –   19.96 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 4.10%   –   18.60 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Scientists Say that Inhaled and Nasal Vaccines may be Needed to Beat Omicron –

Prominent scientists like Scripps Research executive vice president Eric Topol have called on the U.S. government to accelerate efforts to develop inhaled and nasal spray vaccines, believing that they may better target Omicron infections than injected jabs.

“Once [Omicron] gets in through our nasal mucosa, or our oral mucosa, upper airway. That’s game over [for] infection,” Topol said recently in a podcast with U.S. President Joe Biden’s former COVID-19 Response Coordinator Andy Slavitt. “The best way… to induce the mucosal immunity right at the upper airway is with either nasal or oral vaccines.

Read more at Fortune

China Approves First Inhaled Vaccine – “Convidecia Air”

https://fortune.com/2021/04/19/covid-19-vaccine-china-cansino-inhale-nasal-spray/

In July, Chinese scientists published a pre-print study showing that people who received one booster dose of Cansino’s inhaled vaccine after two doses of the inactivated jab from Chinese maker Sinovac developed more antibodies than people who received three Sinovac shots. Four weeks after receiving the inhaled booster, 92.5% of people had developed neutralizing antibodies for Omicron.

Read more at Fortune

China Locks Down 65 Million, Discourages Holiday Travel

China has locked down 65 million of its citizens under tough COVID-19 restrictions and is discouraging domestic travel during upcoming national holidays.  Across the country, 33 cities including seven provincial capitals are under full or partial lockdown covering more than 65 million people, according to a tally published late Sunday by the Chinese business magazine Caixin.

Despite a relatively low number of infections, authorities have adhered to a “zero-COVID” policy requiring lockdowns, quarantines and the confining of people suspected of being in close contact with any confirmed case. China recorded 1,552 new cases in the latest 24-hour period across a nation of 1.4 billion people, the National Health Commission reported Monday.

Read more at the AP

China Cuts Banks’ Forex Reserve Requirement as Yuan hits 2-Year Low Against US Dollar

China has announced a cut to the foreign exchange reserves that banks must set aside, sending “a strong signal” to stem the recent depreciation of the yuan as the central bank warns the market not to bet against the currency. The People’s Bank of China said it would cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 6 per cent from 8 per cent, effective September 15. The move is aimed at boosting dollar liquidity and improving the ability of financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds.

Still, as the yuan reached its weakest point against the US dollar in more than two years on Monday, China’s central bank downplayed concerns.

Read more at the South China Morning Post

Uncertainty Flattens Global Steel Output

Inflation, war, and regulation have a grip on manufacturing and construction spending worldwide, which has leveled steel production in most of the major producer nations.

Global steel production totaled 149.3 million metric tons during July, fairly even (-0.06%) with the June output but -6.4% less than the total for July 2021, as the world’s steelmakers adjust to decreased industrial and construction demands. Through the first seven months of 2022, global steel production has totaled 1.1 billion metric tons, which is -5.5% less than the January-July 2021 result.

Read more at American Machinist

July 2022 Auto Sales Report: Several Brands Slide, While Ford Sales Rally More Than 35%

High prices, supply issues and a relative lack of volume continue to hamper this year’s car sales. That frustrating reality remained in July, as some carmakers roll out the month’s delivery figures. While companies are keen to emphasize strong retail demand, the overall trend points downward for those companies that reported July delivery numbers – with one notable exception.

• Production and supply chain issues continue to impact volumes in July.
• Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Lexus, Mazda, Subaru, Toyota and Volvo all reported lower sales in July 2022, versus the same period last year.
• There were a few gains, including Ford (up 35.5% month-over-month), Lincoln (up 64.5%) and Genesis (up 0.4%).
• Some automakers (including General Motors and Stellantis) only report quarterly – those figures will be available in October.

Read more at The Fast Lane

OPEC+ Agrees To Small Oil Production Cut

OPEC and its allies led by Russia on Monday agreed a small oil production cut to bolster prices that have slid on fears of an economic slowdown. The oil producers will cut output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), amounting to only 0.1% of global demand, for October. They also agreed that OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia could call an extraordinary meeting anytime if volatility persists. read more

The decision essentially maintains the status quo as OPEC has been observing wild fluctuations in oil prices. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday the OPEC+ oil output cut was merely a reflection of expectations of a weaker global economic growth.

Read more at Reuters 

Germany to Delay Closure of Two Nuclear-Power Plants as Energy Crisis Bites

Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear-power plants online past their December shutdown deadline in an effort to buttress its power supply after Russia halted gas flows, the government said Monday. The decision, earlier reported by The Wall Street Journal, is a compromise between members of a government that includes nuclear-energy supporters and the Greens, a party that was born from the antinuclear movement.

The move, which will require new legislation and a vote in parliament, marks the latest policy U-turn for Germany, which has for decades pursued a policy of simultaneously phasing out nuclear power, coal and—soon—gas in a bid to transition Europe’s biggest economy to renewable energy.

Read more at the WSJ

Energy, Business, and Labor Groups in Agreement on Seven Principles to Responsibly Advance New York State’s Climate and Energy Goals

The Independent Power Producers of New York (IPPNY), The Business Council of New York State, the New York State AFL-CIO, and the New York State Building & Construction Trades Council have jointly developed a set of seven principles to address several shortcomings in the current version of the Scoping Plan drafted by the State’s Climate Action Council (CAC). 

• Maintain safe, reliable, and resilient energy infrastructure.
• Communicate impacts on energy consumers and businesses.
• Create and retain high quality union jobs.
• Leverage the power of markets to achieve decarbonization.
• Reduce emissions from all sectors, including transportation and heating.
• Promote development and maintenance of needed energy infrastructure.
• Support fuel and technology diversity.

Read more at the Business Council 

California Power Grid Faces Biggest Blackout Risk of Year as Heat Wave Intensifies

California’s power grid, already strained for a week by record-breaking heat, was set to face its biggest test yet Tuesday as state officials warned residents to cut their energy use even further to avoid the threat of rolling blackouts. The California ISO said Monday the state needed residents to conserve two to three times more energy than they already have been to keep the power on. Otherwise, rotating outages or blackouts could gradually move through affected areas.

Officials have been asking people to conserve energy since last week, when a heat wave began unleashing triple-digit temperatures across the state. California narrowly avoided blackouts Monday, as conservation helped meet surging demand, according to the California Independent System Operator, which provides electricity to most of the state. Residents have used more power this week than at any time in recent years, it said.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Briefing – 563

Mfg Day is October 7th – One Month Away 

MFG Day is manufacturing’s biggest annual opportunity to inspire the next generation to start careers in modern manufacturing through a series of focused events to promote manufacturing to students, parents and educators on the first Friday of October continuing throughout the rest of the month. 

Manufacturers across the region and the nation will be hosting events and inviting young people, as well as educators and policy makers to learn more about their businesses. Fair-Rite Products and the Council of Industry will host the Hudson Valley Focus Live Radio show from 6:00 – 9:00 am on October 7th. Guests will include Fair- Rite leadership and employees, educators and elected officials. Hudson Valley Focus Live is hosted by Tom Sipos on News Radio WKIP, Poughkeepsie 1450 am.  Others are in the works

• Learn more about Mfg Day
• View Mfg Day Resources

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Gazprom Says Nord Stream 1 Resumption Depends on Siemens Energy – Reuters
• Ukraine Warns of Risks to Nuclear Plant Ahead of U.N. Inspectors’ Report – WSJ
• Russia Says United States is Behind Europe’s Gas Supply Crisis – Reuters
• Russia Purchasing Military Equipment from North Korea, US Assesses – The Hill
• The Chips are Down: Putin Scrambles for High-Tech Parts as His Arsenal Goes up in Smoke – Politico
• Russian Shelling Kills Three Civilians in Kharkiv Region, Governor Says –  Reuters
• Zelensky Pitches Investors on Ukraine While Virtually Ringing NYSE Bell – The Hill
• Invest in the Future of Ukraine, Zelensky Writes – WSJ
• Inside the Mission to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: Shellfire, Brinkmanship and Backchannels – WSJ
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Small Businesses are Still Desperate for Workers Even as Other Companies Slow Hiring 

Hiring at U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees has slowed for five straight months, according to data from Paychex and IHS Markit, but ADP President Steve Mucci said that has more to do with a lack of applicants than a reflection of small businesses pulling back.

“For small businesses, the toughest thing is they have the demand, and they have the need for workers — they just have a little bit harder time finding it,” he said. That is counter to what is happening at some larger companies. In August, private payrolls grew by 132,000, a drop from the 268,000 gain seen in July, according to ADP’s monthly payroll report.

Read more at CNBC

Lawmakers Want to Hike New York’s Minimum Wage Rates Next Year – Index to Inflation

A coalition of state lawmakers and advocates will push in next year’s legislative session to raise the minimum wage incrementally over the next few years on three separate tiers – New York City, downstate (Long Island and Westchester) and upstate – until likely 2025, then peg the minimum wage to inflation annually thereafter. That kind of annual indexing is already done in 16 states and Washington, D.C.

A version of such a bill, introduced in the state Senate by Sen. Jessica Ramos, died in the previous legislative session – due largely, advocates said, to having been introduced late, with little time to promote it properly. The bill called for raising the minimum wage by 2025 to more than $20 in New York City, to $17.95 downstate and to $15.75 upstate – and then pegging those floors to inflation going forward.

Read more at City & State

US COVID – White House Signals Most People Will Only Need Annual COVID Booster

As part of its push to encourage vaccine-weary Americans to get the updated Covid shot, the White House put forth a new selling point Tuesday: to view it as a first annual shot, akin to the annual flu shot. The messaging from the White House — part of a briefing where health officials outlined the rollout of the new bivalent booster shots authorized last week — reflects another transition point in the country’s fight against the coronavirus. Federal health officials last month, for example, tossed out quarantine and certain testing guidelines.

“It is becoming increasingly clear, that looking forward with the Covid-19 pandemic, in the absence of a dramatically different variant, we likely are moving towards a path with a vaccination cadence similar to that of the annual influenza vaccine, with annual updated Covid-19 shots matched to the currently circulating strains for most of the population,” Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease official, said at the briefing.

Read more at STAT News

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 16
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,697

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,235
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 235

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.78%    –   19.96 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 4.10%   –   18.60 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Scientists Say that Inhaled and Nasal Vaccines may be Needed to Beat Omicron –

Prominent scientists like Scripps Research executive vice president Eric Topol have called on the U.S. government to accelerate efforts to develop inhaled and nasal spray vaccines, believing that they may better target Omicron infections than injected jabs.

“Once [Omicron] gets in through our nasal mucosa, or our oral mucosa, upper airway. That’s game over [for] infection,” Topol said recently in a podcast with U.S. President Joe Biden’s former COVID-19 Response Coordinator Andy Slavitt. “The best way… to induce the mucosal immunity right at the upper airway is with either nasal or oral vaccines.

Read more at Fortune

China Approves First Inhaled Vaccine – “Convidecia Air”

https://fortune.com/2021/04/19/covid-19-vaccine-china-cansino-inhale-nasal-spray/

In July, Chinese scientists published a pre-print study showing that people who received one booster dose of Cansino’s inhaled vaccine after two doses of the inactivated jab from Chinese maker Sinovac developed more antibodies than people who received three Sinovac shots. Four weeks after receiving the inhaled booster, 92.5% of people had developed neutralizing antibodies for Omicron.

Read more at Fortune

China Locks Down 65 Million, Discourages Holiday Travel

China has locked down 65 million of its citizens under tough COVID-19 restrictions and is discouraging domestic travel during upcoming national holidays.  Across the country, 33 cities including seven provincial capitals are under full or partial lockdown covering more than 65 million people, according to a tally published late Sunday by the Chinese business magazine Caixin.

Despite a relatively low number of infections, authorities have adhered to a “zero-COVID” policy requiring lockdowns, quarantines and the confining of people suspected of being in close contact with any confirmed case. China recorded 1,552 new cases in the latest 24-hour period across a nation of 1.4 billion people, the National Health Commission reported Monday.

Read more at the AP

China Cuts Banks’ Forex Reserve Requirement as Yuan hits 2-Year Low Against US Dollar

China has announced a cut to the foreign exchange reserves that banks must set aside, sending “a strong signal” to stem the recent depreciation of the yuan as the central bank warns the market not to bet against the currency. The People’s Bank of China said it would cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 6 per cent from 8 per cent, effective September 15. The move is aimed at boosting dollar liquidity and improving the ability of financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds.

Still, as the yuan reached its weakest point against the US dollar in more than two years on Monday, China’s central bank downplayed concerns.

Read more at the South China Morning Post

Uncertainty Flattens Global Steel Output

Inflation, war, and regulation have a grip on manufacturing and construction spending worldwide, which has leveled steel production in most of the major producer nations.

Global steel production totaled 149.3 million metric tons during July, fairly even (-0.06%) with the June output but -6.4% less than the total for July 2021, as the world’s steelmakers adjust to decreased industrial and construction demands. Through the first seven months of 2022, global steel production has totaled 1.1 billion metric tons, which is -5.5% less than the January-July 2021 result.

Read more at American Machinist

July 2022 Auto Sales Report: Several Brands Slide, While Ford Sales Rally More Than 35%

High prices, supply issues and a relative lack of volume continue to hamper this year’s car sales. That frustrating reality remained in July, as some carmakers roll out the month’s delivery figures. While companies are keen to emphasize strong retail demand, the overall trend points downward for those companies that reported July delivery numbers – with one notable exception.

• Production and supply chain issues continue to impact volumes in July.
• Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Lexus, Mazda, Subaru, Toyota and Volvo all reported lower sales in July 2022, versus the same period last year.
• There were a few gains, including Ford (up 35.5% month-over-month), Lincoln (up 64.5%) and Genesis (up 0.4%).
• Some automakers (including General Motors and Stellantis) only report quarterly – those figures will be available in October.

Read more at The Fast Lane

OPEC+ Agrees To Small Oil Production Cut

OPEC and its allies led by Russia on Monday agreed a small oil production cut to bolster prices that have slid on fears of an economic slowdown. The oil producers will cut output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), amounting to only 0.1% of global demand, for October. They also agreed that OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia could call an extraordinary meeting anytime if volatility persists. read more

The decision essentially maintains the status quo as OPEC has been observing wild fluctuations in oil prices. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday the OPEC+ oil output cut was merely a reflection of expectations of a weaker global economic growth.

Read more at Reuters 

Germany to Delay Closure of Two Nuclear-Power Plants as Energy Crisis Bites

Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear-power plants online past their December shutdown deadline in an effort to buttress its power supply after Russia halted gas flows, the government said Monday. The decision, earlier reported by The Wall Street Journal, is a compromise between members of a government that includes nuclear-energy supporters and the Greens, a party that was born from the antinuclear movement.

The move, which will require new legislation and a vote in parliament, marks the latest policy U-turn for Germany, which has for decades pursued a policy of simultaneously phasing out nuclear power, coal and—soon—gas in a bid to transition Europe’s biggest economy to renewable energy.

Read more at the WSJ

Energy, Business, and Labor Groups in Agreement on Seven Principles to Responsibly Advance New York State’s Climate and Energy Goals

The Independent Power Producers of New York (IPPNY), The Business Council of New York State, the New York State AFL-CIO, and the New York State Building & Construction Trades Council have jointly developed a set of seven principles to address several shortcomings in the current version of the Scoping Plan drafted by the State’s Climate Action Council (CAC). 

• Maintain safe, reliable, and resilient energy infrastructure.
• Communicate impacts on energy consumers and businesses.
• Create and retain high quality union jobs.
• Leverage the power of markets to achieve decarbonization.
• Reduce emissions from all sectors, including transportation and heating.
• Promote development and maintenance of needed energy infrastructure.
• Support fuel and technology diversity.

Read more at the Business Council 

California Power Grid Faces Biggest Blackout Risk of Year as Heat Wave Intensifies

California’s power grid, already strained for a week by record-breaking heat, was set to face its biggest test yet Tuesday as state officials warned residents to cut their energy use even further to avoid the threat of rolling blackouts. The California ISO said Monday the state needed residents to conserve two to three times more energy than they already have been to keep the power on. Otherwise, rotating outages or blackouts could gradually move through affected areas.

Officials have been asking people to conserve energy since last week, when a heat wave began unleashing triple-digit temperatures across the state. California narrowly avoided blackouts Monday, as conservation helped meet surging demand, according to the California Independent System Operator, which provides electricity to most of the state. Residents have used more power this week than at any time in recent years, it said.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Briefing – 562

August Jobs Report: US Adds 315,000 Jobs, 22,000 in Manufacturing 

Manufacturing employment trended up in August 2022. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the Department of Labor, the U.S. manufacturing sector hired 22,000 more people in August, mostly in the durable goods industries.

• The Bureau reported that manufacturing has added 461,000 new jobs so far over the year. 
• In the overall economy, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%
• Payroll employment increasing by 315,000. 
• Durable goods industries—notably fabricated metal products, computers and electronics, nonmetallic mineral products and machinery companies—added a total of 19,000 jobs.
• Average hourly earnings for manufacturing employees were flat in August at, $30.95 an hour.
• The average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 10 cents to $32.36 during August, a monthly increase of 0.3%.

Read more at IndustryWeek

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• G-7 Rolls Out Plan to Cap Price of Russian Oil – WSJ
• Russia Wants to Destroy Europeans’ Normal Life, Zelensky Warns – BBC
• How HIMARS Launchers are Shifting Momentum in Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia – CBS
• Our Narrowing Options in Ukraine – The Hill
• IAEA Inspects Ukraine Power Plant Amid Heavy Fighting – The AP
• Nuclear Plant Loses Power Line as Moscow, West Energy Row Escalates – Reuters
• Russia to Keep Nord Stream Pipeline Shut, Citing Mechanical Problems – WSJ
• Ukrainians Forcibly Transferred to Russia ‘Had No Choice’  – Voice of America
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

ISM Report: U.S. Manufacturing Growth Remains Tepid Despite Gains in Employment

In its latest report on growth in the manufacturing sector, the Institute for Supply Management indicated that its purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing remained static through August at 52.8%. Growth in the employment and new orders indexes offset a drop in production.  The ISM’s index for new orders rose by 3.3 points to 51.3%, turning from contraction to growth, while the production index slipped 3.1 points to just above contraction at 50.4%.  Outside of the three primary indicators of manufacturing health, the pace of price increases slowed dramatically, down 7.5 points from July to land at 52.5%. Prices have been on the rise since May 2020.

In a positive turn, several survey respondents reported easing in the interminable supply chain headaches that have plagued manufacturing in the past few years. A transportation equipment executive said the effect of the semiconductor shortage has waned, and a nonmetallic mineral products leader noted “much improvement” in raw material availability.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Global Manufacturing PMI at 26-Month Low With Downturn Set to Deepen

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell from 51.1 in July to 50.3 in August, its lowest since June 2020. Output only rose in ten of the 30 economies for which data are available, and in five of those – including mainland China – the gains were only marginal. Output meanwhile fell especially sharply in the UK, where the loss was only exceeded by the declines registered in Taiwan and Poland, as well as in the eurozone.

The survey’s sub-indices point to the production trend deteriorating in the coming months. Most notably, new orders continued to fall at an increased rate in August, and inventory levels continued to rise amid weaker than anticipated sales. Exports losses were recorded during August in the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan and mainland China. Only India, and to a lesser degree Australia, reported any export growth in August. There was encouraging news on the inflation front, however, as weakening demand and improving supply led to a marked cooling of price pressures in the factory sector, with pricing power shifting from sellers to buyers.

Read more at IHS Market

US COVID – Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths Decline, BA4.6 Ascending 

The US CDC is reporting 94.3 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,040,314 deaths. Average daily incidence continues to decline to 88,286 on August 30—the lowest average since May 12. Average daily mortality continues to decline, down to 383 on August 30 from a recent high of 486 on August 12. Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations continue to decline, down 2.9% and 6.3%, respectively, over the past week. Both trends peaked around the last week of July, similar to trends in daily incidence.

The BA.5 sublineage is projected to account for 88.7% of sequenced specimens in the US. While BA.5 remains the overwhelmingly dominant Omicron subvariant, its growth has reversed as the prevalence of the BA.4.6 sublineage is increasing. BA.4.6 remains the #2 subvariant nationwide, now accounting for 7.5% of sequenced cases. It remains unclear whether BA.4.6 is capable of usurping BA.5 nationwide, but it appears to be outpacing BA.5 in certain areas, particularly HHS Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska), where it accounts for 17.2% of sequenced cases. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through September 2nd. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 16
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,697

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,235
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 235

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.78%    –   19.96 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 4.10%   –   18.60 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

CDC Endorses Updated COVID Boosters, Shots Begin

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last Thursday endorsed updated COIVD-19 boosters, opening the way for a fall vaccination campaign that could blunt a winter surge if enough Americans roll up their sleeves. The new boosters targeting today’s most common omicron strains should begin arriving in pharmacies and clinics this week. The decision by CDC Director Rochelle Walensky came shortly after the agency’s advisers voted in favor of the recommendation.

The tweaked shots made by Pfizer and rival Moderna offer Americans a chance to get the most up-to-date protection at yet another critical period in the pandemic. They’re combination or “bivalent” shots — half the original vaccine and half protection against the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron versions now causing nearly all COVID-19 infections.

Read more at the AP

New NAEP Scores Show Drops in Reading and Math

Scores were released last Friday for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), which is often called the nation’s report card. This data comes from a special long‐​term trend assessment of 9‑year‐​old students conducted this past January to March. Peggy Carr, Commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), noted today’s release is “the first nationally representative report comparing student achievement from before the pandemic to now.”

Unfortunately, the predictions about how kids were faring educationally were correct. Average scores fell 5 points in reading and 7 points in mathematics compared to 2020. This is the largest drop in reading since 1990, and the first ever statistically significant decline in mathematics. Looking at students by performance percentiles shows declines at every level; but in both math and reading, scores for lower‐​performing students declined more than scores for higher‐​performing students.

Read more at Cato

NFIB Jobs Report: Challenges Continue for Small Business Hiring

Small business owners continue to hire, but 49% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. 

• Small business owners’ plans to fill open positions remain elevated, with a seasonally adjusted net 21% planning to create new jobs in the next three months, up one point from July.
• A net 46% (seasonally adjusted) reported raising compensation, down two points from July and four points below the record high set in January.
• A net 26% plan to raise compensation in the next three months.
• Overall, 63% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in August.
• Of those trying to hire, 89% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.
• Thirty-one percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 26% reported none.
• Forty-one percent of owners have openings for skilled workers and 24% have openings for unskilled labor. 

Read more at NFIB

Survey Examines Inflation Concerns of Job Changers

Eighty percent of US workers are considering the impact of inflation as they make career choices and changes, and another 73% are factoring a possible recession into the decision, according to a report by FlexJobs. Among other findings, 16% of respondents who took a new job during the pandemic said they regretted it due to issues with company culture, supervisors and a lack of respect.

A quarter of workers say they or someone they knew had been laid off since April of this year. Respondents also report believing it would become harder to find remote jobs moving forward, rather than easier, and more respondents are worried about job scams than in previous surveys.

Read more at BenefitsPRO (free registration) 

On the Other Hand….Why Americans Keep Quitting Jobs Amid High Inflation

The idea of quitting a job amid a period of increased cost of living and a dubious economic future may seem counterintuitive. But the labor market has remained stacked in favor of workers, who see ample opportunities to boost their earnings to supplant increased costs from inflation. 

There were roughly two open jobs for every unemployed American, according to Labor Department data, giving job seekers ample opportunities to find new jobs with better pay or working conditions. And businesses are still scrambling to find enough workers to keep up with consumer spending — which is well above pre-pandemic levels — from a workforce that remains smaller than it was before COVID-19.  “Once job seekers know it’s possible to attain a higher wage, their expectations may shift and act as a pull factor in searching for a higher dollar amount,” wrote AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, in an analysis. 

Read more at The Hill

Liz Truss: A Quick Guide to the UK’s New Prime Minister

Liz Truss will be Britain’s next prime minister after she was elected leader of the ruling Conservative Party on Monday, ending a race to succeed the scandal-tarnished Boris Johnson. She inherits a country facing a dire winter energy crisis, widespread strikes and economic recession — as well as long-term questions about the erosion of its cherished public services and its status as a world power after Brexit. Those issues were largely absent from discussion in the two-month leadership race, which saw her defeat former finance minister Rishi Sunak by 57% to 43% in the final runoff.

Truss, 47, has served as foreign secretary and was the clear front-runner for the job. She clinched victory by appealing to the right-wing party faithful as a tax-cutting, anti-“woke” candidate who would take a hard line on post-Brexit dealings with the European Union.

Learn more about her at the BBC

Amazon Bid to Scrap Historic Union Win Blocked

A hearing officer for a federal labor board has rebuffed Amazon’s attempt to scrap a historic union win at a warehouse on Staten Island, New York, handing victory to organizers in what could be a very long battle for recognition. Shortly after the spring vote, Amazon filed more than two dozen objections with the National Labor Relations Board, claiming it was tainted by organizers and Region 29, the agency’s regional office in Brooklyn that oversaw the election. The case was then transferred to another regional office, based in Phoenix, Arizona, at Amazon’s request.

The 24-day long hearing, which Amazon had unsuccessfully sought to close to the public, was marked by tense exchanges between attorneys for both sides on what documents could be submitted for evidence and which witnesses could testify. The 24-day long hearing, which Amazon had unsuccessfully sought to close to the public, was marked by tense exchanges between attorneys for both sides on what documents could be submitted for evidence and which witnesses could testify.

Read more at the AP

Extreme California Heat Prompts Governor to Shutter Manufacturers 

California Governor Gavin Newsom this week issues a state of emergency as triple-digit temperatures bear down on the state, ordering some manufacturers to cease operations, encouraging electric vehicle drivers to charge at night and allowing ships in harbor to keep their engines on instead of using shore power from the grid. California Independent System Operator is the agency that forecasts much of the state’s power usage, and it predicts that electricity demand will exceed supply starting Monday and only get worse throughout the week. 

The California Manufacturers & Technology Association advocacy group is encouraging its members to save power, but it’s also urging the state to solve its energy scarcity issues. Utilities in the Golden State predict electricity shortages through 2025 at least as generation plants shut down and more of the state’s transportation sector shifts from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars to electric vehicles (EVs).

Read more at IndustryWeek

Nuclear Power’s Rebound Causes Rift Among Environmentalists

While many environmental groups and green political parties in the U.S., Canada and Europe have long opposed nuclear power as dirty and risky, a new generation of climate activists—including a branch of Fridays for Future movement, which draws its inspiration from Greta Thunberg—argue that nuclear power can be a valuable low-emission alternative to fossil fuels.

The opposing viewpoints are fueling a contentious divide among environmental groups and within green political parties, an issue that has grown more pronounced in recent months amid the world’s energy crisis.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Briefing – 561

Covid-19 Booster Shots Targeting Omicron Authorized, Likely to Be Offered Soon

U.S. health regulators cleared use of retooled Covid-19 vaccines that target the latest versions of Omicron, in preparation for a fall booster campaign that could start within days.  The action by the Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday permits people 12 years and older to receive an additional shot of the vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, and people 18 and older to receive a Moderna Inc. booster at least two months after their most recent dose.

The clearance marks the first changes to the composition of the Covid-19 vaccines since their distribution began in the U.S. in December 2020. The action also makes the booster doses widely available, rather than limiting them to people who are at high risk of developing severe disease, as earlier booster authorizations had done. Health authorities have been preparing to roll out the rejiggered boosters to protect people from the virus in the fall and winter, a period when cases have often ticked up as people spend more time indoors.

Read more at STAT News

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Kherson: ‘Heavy Fighting’ as Ukraine Seeks to Retake Russian-Held Region – BBC
• Russian Politicians Call to Change Ukraine War Focus, Eliminate Zelensky – Newsweek
• India and China to Take Part in Joint Military Drills with Russia – Voice of America
• Putin, World React to Death of Gorbachev, Who Helped End the Cold War – Politico
• Russia Welcomes Idea of Permanent IAEA Presence at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant – Reuters
• Along the Front Lines in Ukraine, Cut off from Resources, a Resilient City Holds on – NPR
• Nord Stream 1: Russia Shuts Major Gas Pipeline to Europe – BBC
• EU Will Suspend Agreement with Russia that Eases Visa Issuance – Hungary Minister – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

China’s Factory Activity Contracts for Second Straight Month in August

China’s factory activity shrank in August for the second month in a row, official data showed Wednesday, as the sector was hit by strict zero-Covid restrictions and extreme heat. Sporadic Covid-19 lockdowns around China have dampened consumer enthusiasm and business confidence, while searing temperatures across large parts of the country this summer prompted power rationing for factories.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key gauge of manufacturing in the world’s second-biggest economy, came in at 49.4, up from July’s 49.0 but still below the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Inflation Tops 9% in Eurozone, Piling Pressure on Policy Makers

Inflation in the eurozone rose to a fresh record in August, underscoring the economic shock dealt by Russia’s war in Ukraine and increasing the pressure on the European Central Bank to respond by raising interest rates aggressively next week.  Eurozone consumer prices were 9.1% higher than a year earlier, a pickup from the 8.9% rate of inflation recorded in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday. That is the highest rate since records began in early 1997.

Inflation in the 19-nation eurozone has surpassed U.S. levels in recent weeks. Worryingly for the ECB, the core rate of inflation—which excludes volatile items such as energy and food—increased to 4.3% in August from 4% in July. That suggests high inflation rates could linger even if energy and food prices stabilize. The ECB aims to keep inflation at 2% over the medium term.  Eurozone inflation is likely to rise toward 10% over the coming months.

Read more at the WSJ

US COVID Update – Biden Officials Plan to Shift COVID-19 Vaccine Coverage to Private Market as Soon as January

The Biden administration said Tuesday that it anticipates shifting COVID-19 vaccine distribution to the private market as soon as January 2023, marking a new phase in fighting the pandemic.

The move to the private market for vaccines, as well as treatments, would be another sign that the administration views the acute emergency phase of the pandemic as ending, and that purchasing and distribution of measures to fight COVID-19 should work more like the rest of the health care system, rather than the government playing the leading role.  

Read more at The Hill

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 19
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,552

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,368
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 240

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 6.51%    –   22.42 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.07%   –   21.40 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Scientists Boost Immune Response to COVID-19 Vaccine by 25 Times

Ironically, some vaccines need their own “boosters.” An ingredient called an adjuvant can be added to vaccines to help elicit a more robust immune response, better training the body to fight a pathogen. Scientists report a substance that boosted the immune response to an experimental COVID-19 shot in mice by 25 times, compared to injection with the vaccine alone. Details of the research are described in a new paper published today (August 31, 2022) in the journal ACS Infectious Diseases.

Even though the first COVID-19 shots authorized in the U.S. apply cutting-edge mRNA genetic technology, the tried-and-true strategy of using proteins from the pathogen can produce vaccines that are less expensive to make and easier to store. So far, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized only one protein-based vaccine, made by Novavax, against SARS-CoV-2. However, many currently available inoculations against other diseases depend on proteins or pieces of them, and these shots contain adjuvants to boost their effectiveness.

Read more at SciTech Daily

Outdated Already? Gallop Poll Has Confidence in Economy Rising

Americans’ confidence in the economy has improved compared to July, but the public still evaluates the economy negatively, according to a new Gallup poll. Gallup’s economic confidence index improved from -51 in July to -39 in August, returning to the levels seen in March in April.  The poll was conducted prior to Fed Chairman Powell’s Hawkish remarks in Jackson Hole triggered a market sell-off. 

Sixteen percent of U.S. adults rated current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good,” compared to 14 percent in July. Forty-seven percent of respondents described conditions as “poor,” a five-point drop from when 52 percent said so last month. One-quarter of respondents indicated they believe the economy is getting better, up from 16 percent in July, while the proportion saying the economy is worsening dropped from 80 percent to 72 percent.

Read more at The Hill

States Get Stingy as Sour Economy Drains Their Surpluses

While not every state is seeing signs of trouble — record-high tax revenues in Texas, for instance, will give lawmakers an extra roughly $27 billion to throw around in their next legislative session — many legislators and governors are squirreling billions of dollars into rainy-day funds just in case. They fear the economy might crash, or Washington could become more hostile to handouts under Republican control of Congress, or both.

New York started its 2022-23 fiscal year on April 1 with a $2.3 billion surplus, allowing state leaders in an election year to approve record spending on education, expand child care subsidies, provide bonuses to health care workers and institute a temporary cut in the gas tax.  Then the state lowered its revenue projections this month, citing the toll wrought by inflation and a rocky fiscal picture ahead. Now, after projecting surpluses, the state estimates deficits that could reach $6.2 billion by the 2027-28 fiscal year.

Read more at Politico

Fast-Food Operators Mobilize Against California Wage Bill

Restaurant operators and business advocates mobilized Tuesday to try to persuade California Gov. Gavin Newsom to veto a bill that would set wages for fast-food workers, a move they said could increase costs and set a precedent other states and cities might follow.  The bill, known as the Fast Act, passed California’s Legislature on Monday. It was backed by labor unions, which say a government council setting minimum wages for fast-food workers could create a model to ensure fair wages and other protections for hourly workers in an industry where unions have struggled to organize workers.

The effort is being pushed by franchise owners, including many who would have to take on the cost of paying workers a minimum wage as high as $22 an hour starting next year, set by a government-run council created by the bill. Chains that operate their own restaurants, such as Starbucks Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and In-N-Out Burger, would also be affected.

Read more at the WSJ

Power Plants, Unions Worry About Moving Too Fast to Wind, Solar Power

A coalition of unions, business groups and power plant operators are calling for caution in enacting the state’s ambitious plan to reduce carbon in energy production and other phases of the economy. They worry that moving too quickly from traditional power sources like natural gas to alternatives such as wind or solar power could put the state in an energy bind in the next few years.

“As we move toward a 100 percent zero-emission electric generation fleet and net-zero carbon economy, we also need to maintain a reliable energy system, be open and honest about the cost and benefits of compliance options, and keep all reasonable options on the table,” said Heather Briccetti Mulligan, president and CEO of the Business Council.

Read more at The Times Union

Elon Musk says the world still needs to use oil and gas or ‘civilization will crumble’

Elon Musk said the world still needs oil and gas in order to avoid civilization from crumbling, Reuters reported. He made the comments at an oil and gas conference in Stavanger, Norway and also mused on climate change, renewable energy, and population decline. The CEO of Shell, Ben van Beurden, told the same conference that Europe may need to continue rationing energy for several years because the crisis was likely to continue for more than one winter,

“Realistically I think we need to use oil and gas in the short term, because otherwise civilization will crumble,” Musk told delegates.  “One of the biggest challenges the world has ever faced is the transition to sustainable energy and to a sustainable economy. That will take some decades to complete.” He also said “at this time, we actually need more oil and gas, not less,” and would not “demonize” fossil fuels in comments reported by Bloomberg.

Read more at Business Insider

Workplace Violence by Occupation

From 1992-2019  workplace violence has killed almost 18,000 people. This number comes from a recent study conducted by NIOSH, the Bureau of Justice Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a broad view of workplace violence in the United States during the 27 years from 1992 to 2019. they define workplace violence as incidents that occurred outside the workplace but stemmed from work-related issues.

For non-fatal incidents of workplace violence, during 2015–2019 the average annual rate was 8 per 1,000 workers. Law enforcement and security professionals had the highest average annual victimization rate at 77.5 per 1,000 workers, followed by mental health professionals (45.2 per 1,000) and medical professionals (15.1 per 1,000). For workers in corrections professions, a subcategory of law enforcement and security, the victimization rate was 149.1 per 1,000.

Read more at EHS Today

India’s Q1 GDP grows at 13.5 percent

India’s economy grew at the fastest pace in a year from April-June quarter, as a favourable base effect and improved activities following the relaxation of pandemic-led restrictions outweighed the rippling effects of geopolitical and global concerns. Asia’s third-largest economy posted double-digit growth of 13.5 percent in the fiscal first quarter, lagging the 15.2 percent estimate by Reuters and sharply higher than the 4.1 percent growth rate in the preceding quarter.

A rebound in private consumption – one of the key factors for the economy – and growth in contact-intensive sectors amid declining Covid-19 fears aided economic momentum in the first quarter. Moreover, a severe coronavirus Delta wave in the comparable year-earlier period had impeded growth as consumption demand slackened with state-enforced movement restrictions.

Read more at Economic Times

Look For the Union Label… LRB Finds Tesla Unlawfully Restricted Union Apparel

In a decision Monday, the National Labor Relations Board ruled that Tesla Inc. was unlawfully restricting its employees from displaying union insignia. In a 3-2 ruling August 29, the NLRB found that any company restriction on wearing union apparel are “presumptively unlawful” unless the company gives a good reason. A previous NLRB standard, set in 2019 in a case with Wal-Mart, held that employers could restrict union apparel without giving special circumstances as long as they didn’t completely prohibit employees from wearing union insignia. Monday’s decision overrules the 2019 decision, and reinstates an earlier standard, which requires employers that “interfere in any way” with an employee’s right to display union iconography have to provide special circumstances justifying the interference.

The Tesla policy targeted by the decision requires that company employees wear one of two t-shirts: a plain black t-shirt, or a black t-shirt with a company logo. Black t-shirts displaying union iconography were restricted, according to the UAW, which brought the initial complaint alongside Tesla employees.  

Read more at IndustryWeek

UN Weather Agency Predicts Rare ‘Triple-Dip’ La Nina in 2022

The World Meteorological Organization on Wednesday said La Nina conditions, which involve a large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures, have strengthened in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific with an increase in trade winds in recent weeks. La Nina is a natural and cyclical cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide, as opposed to warming caused by the better-known El Nino — an opposite phenomenon. La Nina often leads to more Atlantic hurricanes, less rain and more wildfires in the western United States, and agricultural losses in the central U.S.

Together El Nino, La Nina and the neutral condition are called ENSO, which stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation, and they have one of the largest natural effects on climate, at times augmenting and other times dampening the big effects of human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas, scientists say.

Read more at US News and World Report

U.S

Daily Briefing – 560

OnSolve Global Risk Impact Report: “Black Swans” are Flying

Lately it seems that black swans swoop in from every direction on a regular basis—pandemic, fire, drought, social unrest, war. Resilience has replaced efficiency as the watchword of the day. But wasn’t it always this way?  Well, no. A new report out Tuesday from OnSolve analyzed a database of more than 14 million events over the last two years and puts some numbers on the change.

From 2020 to mid-2022, the company calculates:

• Transportation-related risks are up 146%
• Crime risks are up 141%
• Fire risks are up 118%
• Infrastructure and technology risks are up 111%
• National security events are up 48%
• Extreme weather events are up 47%
• Civil unrest is up 9%

Read more at OnSolve

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukraine Starts a Push to Recapture Kherson, a Crucial Russian-Occupied City – The Economist
• Ukraine has ‘Good Chance’ to Retake Territory, U.S. Assesses – Politico
• Gazprom Cuts Gas Deliveries to France’s Engie – Politico
• Exxon Escalates Dispute With Russia Over Barred Exit From Giant Oil Project – WSJ
• Around 1.5 mln Tonnes of Food Have Left Ukraine Under Grain Export Deal – Reuters
• I’m a Ukrainian Soldier and I’ve Accepted my Death – NYT
• Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern – WSJ
• EU Split on Visa Ban for Russian Tourists, Kremlin Says Proposal Irrational – Reuters
• Russian Soldier’s Journal: ‘Some Grandmother Poisoned Our Pies’ – Military Times
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Job Openings Top 11.2 Million in July, Nearly Double the Available Workers

Available positions totaled 11.24 million for the month, well in excess of the 10.3 million FactSet estimate, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Total separations declined slightly in July to 5.93 million, as the rate edged lower to 3.9%. Layoffs and discharges were little changed at just under 1.4 million.

Job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+81,000); arts, entertainment, and recreation (+53,000); federal government (+47,000); and state and local government education (+42,000), the report said. Job openings decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-47,000).

Read more at CNBC

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises More Than Expected in August

The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index rose to 103.2 this month from 95.3 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index climbing to 97.7. The survey’s present situation index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, climbed to 145.4 from 139.7 in July. Its expectations index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, increased to 75.1 from 65.6 last month.

“Purchasing intentions increased after a July pullback, and vacation intentions reached an 8-month high,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board in Washington. “August’s improvement in confidence may help support spending, but inflation and additional rate hikes still pose risks to economic growth in the short term.”

Read more at Reuters

U.S. COVID – Wastewater Surveillance 

Wastewater surveillance is a proven method to track disease outbreaks and has provided an accurate and economical way to provide early detection of COVID-19 levels within communities—and even estimate the number of infected people in a specific area—helping to inform health authorities and policymakers throughout the pandemic. Sewage surveillance also is used to track other diseases, including monkeypox and polio, and experts say building and maintaining the infrastructure to expand wastewater-based disease surveillance should be a public health priority.

However, funding for the relatively inexpensive systems is inconsistent, leading to pauses in the disease monitoring that, if continuously and thoroughly conducted, can help communities or entire countries save millions of dollars by quickly responding to disease outbreaks. But many governments, including the US Congress, are reluctant to allocate additional money for wastewater surveillance. In some cases, venture capitalists, nonprofit organizations, or academic institutions are stepping up to fill the gaps. But more funding will be needed to grow wastewater epidemiology to help provide warning signals of future potential disease outbreaks.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 19
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,552

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,368
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 240

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 6.51%    –   22.42 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.07%   –   21.40 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

mRNA COVID Vaccines Protect Against Severe Omicron for at Least Half a Year

COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccines offered protection against severe COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant for at least 6 months, and three doses of China’s inactivated vaccines were more protective than two doses but not as protective as three doses of mRNA vaccines, finds a study from Singapore published today in JAMA Network Open.

Researchers at the National Centre for Infectious Diseases in Singapore studied the effectiveness against infection and severe illness of two or more doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines or the inactivated Sinovac, CoronaVac, or Sinopharm Chinese COVID-19 vaccines in 2,441,581 residents aged 30 years or older from Dec 27, 2021, to Mar 10, 2022, during Omicron predominance. Estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an mRNA booster against Omicron infection was 31.7% to 41.3% after 15 to 60 days and waned rapidly over time. Estimated mRNA booster VE against severe COVID-19 was 87.4% and didn’t wane for up to 6 months. The estimated VE of three doses of inactivated vaccine against severe illness was 69.6%.

Read more at The University of Minnesota’s CIDRAP

Federal Government to Halt Free COVID-19 at-Home Tests by Early September

The federal government is set to suspend its offer of free at-home COVID-19 tests by Friday, Sept. 2, without congressional authorization for an extension.  The U.S. Postal Service’s page for ordering the tests states that orders will pause by next Friday “or sooner if supplies run out.”  The administration originally announced that it would offer 1 billion free at-home COVID-19 tests in January. The federal government used COVID-19 funding from the American Rescue Plan, President Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic stimulus and COVID-19 recovery package that he signed into law last year. 

The seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases has declined in recent weeks following an increase fueled by the highly contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant. But a senior administration official told USA Today that the government needs to hold on to tests for a possible rise in the fall. 

Read more at The Hill

Mikhail Gorbachev: Last Soviet Leader Dies Aged 91

Mikhail Gorbachev, who ended the Cold War without bloodshed but failed to prevent the collapse of the Soviet Union, died on Tuesday at the age of 91, hospital officials in Moscow said. Gorbachev, the last Soviet president, forged arms reduction deals with the United States and partnerships with Western powers to remove the Iron Curtain that had divided Europe since World War Two and bring about the reunification of Germany.

One can debate, as historians and politicians have in the ensuing decades, how much of the change was Gorbachev’s doing and how much was forced on him by the tide of history, as well as leaders like Lech Walesa, Pope John Paul II, and President Ronald Reagan. Certainly, the events of the 1980s — including the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan — had already made it harder for any Soviet leader to continue the nation on its existing path.

Read more at Politico

Big Jump in OSHA Fines Not Coming

At present, the maximum fine OSHA can assess against an employer per alleged repeat, willful or failure-to-abate violations is $145,027. Last year, the House of Representatives passed a bill that would have boosted the maximum penalty for willful or repeat violations of OSHA workplace safety rules from that amount to $700,000 per violation, including imposition of a $50,000 minimum. Under last year’s House proposal, the serious failure-to-abate fine limit also would have increased from $13,653 to $70,000.

However, the recent passed reconciliation spending bill does not mention or incorporate any provisions for raising the cap on civil money penalties regarding citations issued by OSHA, notes Raymond Perez II, an attorney with the law firm of Jackson Lewis.

Read more at EHS Today

Manufacturing Robot Sales Up 25% in North America in Q2

Companies ordered a record 12,305 machines in the second quarter valued at $585 million, 25% more units than during the same period a year ago, according to data compiled by the industry group the Association for Advancing Automation. Combined with a strong first quarter, the North American robotics market notched its best first half ever, the group said.

The incentives for companies to pursue a robot-enhanced workforce are obvious in the current tight labor market. With nearly two open jobs for every unemployed worker, employers are bidding up wages: Total U.S. labor costs – covering wages and benefits – surged 5.1% year over year in the second quarter, the most since the Labor Department began tracking it in 2001.

Read more at Reuters

Times Union Editorial: A Counter Productive Tax

Consider that no state lost more jobs over the course of the pandemic than New York, and only a handful of states remain further below pre-pandemic employment levels, according to federal data. Those painful realities suggest that New York’s businesses — and its economy more broadly — continue to need the state’s moral and financial support. 

Instead, they’re being slapped with a new fee that businesses have dubbed the “COVID tax.” businesses statewide recently learned that they have until Sept. 30 to pay an Interest Assessment Surcharge of $27.60 per employee. The money will pay the interest on the approximately $8 billion New York still owes the federal government after the state borrowed nearly $10 billion to pay unemployment benefits at the height of the pandemic.

Read more at the Albany Times Union

Atremis I Launch Delayed Until Friday

NASA’s planned lunar launch of its unmanned Orion capsule atop the Artemis I rocket will be delayed until Friday at the earliest because of problems Monday with several systems. It could be September before the test flight happens, all part of the U.S.’s goals to return astronauts to the moon by 2025 and perhaps one day send a manned mission to Mars.

One of the rocket’s engines failed Monday to settle on the correct temperature, and in the predawn darkness at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, NASA repeatedly stopped and started the fueling of the Space Launch System rocket because of a leak of highly explosive hydrogen, eventually succeeding in reducing the seepage. The leak happened in the same place that saw seepage during a dress rehearsal in the spring.

• Read more at the Hill
• The Economist Call it a “Colossal Waste”

Toyota Output Shrinks for Fourth Month on Shortages, China

Toyota Motor Corp.’s global output sank for the fourth straight month as a shortage of semiconductors and supply chain disruptions caused by COVID lockdowns in China hurt production. Output fell 8.6 percent in July from a year earlier to 706,547 vehicles, Toyota said in a statement Tuesday. Sales declined 7.2 percent to 797,179 units, extending a slump for an 11th consecutive month.

A shortage of computer chips that go into many car parts, higher raw material costs and frequent shutdowns at factories in China because of COVID-related curbs have thrown global auto assembly lines in turmoil. Toyota said domestic production fell 28 percent in July, outweighing record overseas production, up 4.5 percent that was driven by a strong recovery in Europe, China and the rest of Asia.

Read more at Automotive News

Honda, LG Energy Plan $4.4 Billion EV Battery Factory in U.S.

Honda Motor Co.  and LG Energy Solution Ltd. said Monday they plan to build a $4.4 billion electric-vehicle battery factory in the U.S., the latest tie-up between auto makers and battery suppliers seeking to expand capacity by sharing upfront costs. The companies said they plan to begin construction of the factory early next year and start mass production by the end of 2025. The factory aims to have an annual production capacity of about 40 gigawatt-hours and will supply its output exclusively to Honda facilities in North America, they said.

The companies didn’t disclose where in the U.S. the factory would be built, but people familiar with the matter said it was planned for Ohio.

Read more at the WSJ

Best Buy’s Quarterly Sales Drop, as Inflation-Weary Consumers Pull Back on Spending

Best Buy on Tuesday said sales dropped by about 13% in the fiscal second quarter, as the retailer felt a pullback from inflation-weary shoppers. The company’s shares rose in early trading, as it reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Best Buy had cut the forecast in late July, saying it expects weaker demand for consumer electronics as people pay more for groceries and gas. The retailer projects same-store sales to drop by about 11% for the 12-month period ending in January.

Best Buy’s quarter reflects a sharp change in consumer spending habits. A year ago, the retailer saw sales rise nearly 20% as shoppers bought TVs, laptops and more to sustain Covid pandemic-fueled habits like working from home and streaming movies. Now, however, some of those patterns have faded as people go back to the office or go on summer vacations. Some consumers are skipping over big-ticket and discretionary items as they pay more for necessities. 

Read more at CNBC

EU Promises ‘Emergency Intervention’ to Rein in Energy Prices

The EU is planning an “emergency intervention” in the bloc’s power market to curb soaring prices, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday.  The remarks are a sign that the Commission has firmly broken with its earlier defense of EU power market design — and follows rising pressure in recent months from member governments arguing the system wasn’t designed to deal with the energy emergency unleashed by the price surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Governments have rolled out measures, ranging from direct handouts for households to caps on power prices. But with spending on short-term measures in countries such as Greece now amounting to almost 4 percent of GDP, lawmakers are pushing hard for an intervention on the European level.

Read more at Politico

U.S. Business Confidence in China Falls to Record Low, Survey Says

Sentiment about operating in China among U.S. businesses has plummeted to a new low, driven largely by Beijing’s continued use of sudden Covid-19 lockdowns, an annual survey by an American business group found. Only around half of 117 companies polled said they were optimistic or somewhat optimistic about their own outlook in China, down 18 percentage points from the year before and the lowest since the survey began more than 16 years ago.

The poll of member companies by the U.S.-China Business Council found American multinationals increasingly losing confidence in the near-term prospects for their China ventures, according to results published Monday. This year, 21% of respondents said they were pessimistic or somewhat pessimistic about their five-year business outlook in the world’s second-largest economy, compared with 9% last year.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Briefing – 559

At Jackson Hole Retreat Powell Says Fed Must Show Resolve in Fighting Inflation

The Federal Reserve must continue raising interest rates and hold them at a higher level until it is confident inflation is under control, Chairman Jerome Powell said in a widely anticipated speech Friday. They are likely to weigh whether to raise rates by half point or 0.75 point at their next meeting, Sept. 20-21, after reaching consensus this summer that rates would need to reach levels that slow the economy’s growth to damp investment, spending and hiring. 

While the central bank’s steps to slow the rate of investment, spending and hiring “will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” Mr. Powell said in a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Wyoming. “Those are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Read more at the WSJ

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Are Sanctions on Russia Working? – The Economist
• How Ukraine is Using Resistance Warfare Developed by the US to Fight Back Against Russia – CNN
• Russia, Ukraine Trade Claims of Nuclear Plant Attacks – NPR
• Russia Doesn’t Acknowledge Radiological Risk at Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, U.S. Says – Reuters
• Ukraine Has Strategic Advantage Over Russia: Petraeus – Yahoo
• Putin Orders Benefit Payments for People Arriving in Russia from Ukraine – Reuters
• Ukraine and Russia Both Need More Soldiers – The Economist
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

2Q GDP Revised Upward, But Still Negative

The U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter, but at a rate that was less than originally estimated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The upward revision confirms that the economy suffered two consecutive quarters of contraction this year, what some people consider a recession though that is not a formal definition. However, the improvement reported Thursday means that talk of recession may be muted for now.

The improved second estimate put the decline in the nation’s gross domestic product in the second quarter at 0.6%, an improvement over the 0.9% initially reported. The first-quarter decline of 1.6% remained unchanged. Much of the revision came from better data on consumer spending.

Read more at US News and World Report

Government Revisions to Payroll Estimates Add 462,000 More Jobs in the Year Through March

The U.S. labor market pumped out more jobs in its recovery from the pandemic than previously thought. Employers added about 462,000 more jobs in the year through March than the Labor Department originally estimated, the agency said Wednesday as part of routine annual revisions. That means the economy added an average of nearly 39,000 more jobs each month for the year ended in March than previously thought.

“It was hard to find words to describe how strong the job growth was over those 12 months, and now it’s even stronger,” said Heidi Shierholz, president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute. She said the change didn’t significantly alter what is known about the labor market’s performance.  The labor market is holding up better than many other parts of the economy that are buckling under the weight of high inflation, rising interest rates and shifting consumer spending.

Read more at The WSJ

U.S. COVID – Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths all Decline

The US CDC is reporting 93.6 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,036,604 deaths. Average daily incidence continues to decline, down from the most recent high of 129,359 new cases per day on July 21 to 89,698 on August 23—the lowest average since May 12. Average daily mortality appears to have passed a peak, down from 466 deaths per day on August 12 to 390 on August 23. A lag in daily mortality of 2-4 weeks behind daily incidence is consistent with the trends we have observed over the course of the pandemic.**

Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations continue to decline, down 3.3% and 6.6%, respectively, over the past week. Both trends peaked around the last week of July, similar to trends in daily incidence. While BA.5 remains the overwhelmingly dominant variant—and continues to increase in prevalence—the prevalence of the BA.4.6 sublineage is increasing as well. Over the past 2 weeks, BA.4.6 became the #2 variant nationwide, now accounting 6.3% of sequenced cases, while BA.4 fell to #3 (4.3%). All variants reported here are sublineages of the Omicron variant of concern (VOC).

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 19
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,552

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,368
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 240

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 6.51%    –   22.42 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.07%   –   21.40 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Long COVID has Forced as Many as 4 Million People Out of the Workforce

In response to new Census Bureau data released in June, the Brookings Institution estimates that 2 million to 4 million individuals are out of the workforce because of long COVID. Patients with long COVID often suffer from extended periods of fatigue, brain fog, and muscle aches. Long COVID is like healing from injuries after falling off a bike, Dr. Panagis Galiatsatos, assistant professor at Johns Hopkins’s division of pulmonary and critical care medicine, told Fortune.

Last July, long COVID was named a disability protected under the Americans With Disabilities Act (ADA). Since then, many have come forward to explain the effects of having and taking care of people with long COVID. Owing to brain fog and other symptoms, people have had to take time off, and the task of caretaking also sometimes requires extra personal days.

Read more at Fortune

Weather Looks Good Today for Artemis 1 Moon Mission Launch, NASA Says

It looks like Mother Nature may cooperate for NASA’s historic Artemis 1 megarocket launch to the moon today. The weather outlook has improved for the planned Artemis 1 launch at 8:33 a.m. EDT (1233 GMT) from Pad 39B here at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters are predicting a promising 80% chance of good liftoff conditions.

Artemis 1 is NASA’s first test flight of its Space Launch System (SLS) moon rocket and its Orion spacecraft. The uncrewed mission will send a sensor-laden Orion capsule on a 42-day shakedown cruise around the moon to verify that that both vehicles are ready to fly astronauts into deep space. 

Watch Live

Moderna Files Patent Infringement Lawsuits Against Pfizer and BioNTech Over mRNA Covid-19 Vaccines

“Moderna believes that Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty infringes patents Moderna filed between 2010 and 2016 covering Moderna’s foundational mRNA technology. This groundbreaking technology was critical to the development of Moderna’s own mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Pfizer and BioNTech copied this technology, without Moderna’s permission, to make Comirnaty,” the news release said.

Pfizer has not been served and is “unable to comment at this time,” a company spokesperson told CNN.  Moderna said in the release that it is not aiming to remove Pfizer’s vaccine from the market or prevent future sales of its vaccine and also is not seeking damages of its sale in specific circumstances.

Read more at CNN

COVID-19 Deaths Reach 1 Million Worldwide so Far in 2022

One million people have died from COVID-19 so far this year, the World Health Organization has revealed, describing it as a “tragic milestone”.  Since the pandemic began more than two and a half years ago, more than 6.4 million people have died from COVID-19 across the globe, according to WHO data.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Thursday the figures reached this week demonstrated the world was not “learning to live” with the virus. Mr Tedros had wanted all countries to have vaccinated 70 per cent of their populations by the end of June, but 136 countries failed to reach the target, of which 66 still had coverage below 40 per cent.

Read more at ABC Australia

McMahon: NY Pandemic Recovery Update: Climbing, but Still Far Behind

July’s private employment count in New York remained well below the pre-pandemic level, even as the national job count rose to a new high, according to monthly reports from the state Labor Department and federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Still hovering nearly 4 percent below the February 2020 level, New York’s employment recovery remains among the slowest in the nation. 23 states had surpassed their pre-pandemic job counts. Employment in the nation as a whole was up a net 0.5 percent in July compared to February 2020.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, New York’s statewide private jobs estimate last month was back above 8 million for the first time in 28 months—but still 312,000 short of the February 2020 level. New York has now regained more than 80 percent of the nearly 2 million private-sector jobs the state lost in the immediate aftermath of the March 2020 Covid-19 outbreak and lockdowns. However, even counting New York’s loss, employment in the U.S. as a whole has risen much further, to 471,000 jobs above the pre-pandemic total.

Read more at The Empire Center

China Declares Emergency as Heat, Drought Threaten Crops, Manufacturing

Chinese authorities issued a national yellow alert last Thursday, as temperatures eclipsed 104 degrees F in dozens of cities. Temperatures also are putting pressure on the country’s power grid. China’s Sichaun Province has received 51% less precipitation than normal this summer in addition to the excessive heat. The province has a population of 94 million people.

China counts on hydroelectricity for about 15% of its total energy needs. Shrinking water levels have put a strain on production capabilities amid rising demand. Hydropower output fell below half its normal level in Sichuan earlier in the week, prompting the 67 coal-fired power plants in the province to generate as much power as possible as part of an emergency response, according to Chinese officials. The increasing power demands are also negatively impacting the manufacturing industry. Companies including Toyota, Volkswagen, Intel, Tesla and Apple have been forced to reduce product.

Read more at UPI

Energy Crisis in the U.K. as Regulator Hikes Bill Price Caps by 80%

Households in Great Britain face a leap in energy bills from October after the regulator raised the energy price cap, taking the average gas and electricity bill to £3,549 a year. In a blow for hard-pressed consumers already struggling with soaring inflation, Ofgem approved the £1,578 increase on the current figure of £1,971 for the average dual-fuel tariff – a rise of 80%.

The cap will be almost treble what it was a year earlier last October, when it was raised to £1,277. The announcement comes as households attempt to budget for a tough winter. Soaring energy bills have fuelled rampant inflation, which breached 10% last month and is forecast by some economists to climb to 18% from January.

Read more at The Guardian

California to Ban Sales of New Gasoline-Powered Vehicles By 2035

California, the largest auto market in the US, is to phase out the sale of gas cars over the next 13 years in a bold plan to combat the climate emergency and reduce emissions.  The policy allows Californians to keep driving gas-powered cars, trucks and SUVs and buying used ones after 2035, but no new models would be sold in the state, the most populous in the country. California has seen historic wildfires amid summers of record-high temperatures in recent years.

The state has about 80,000 public charging stations and will need to expand that number to accommodate the surge in electric vehicles. Last year only 12% of new cars sold in California were zero-emission, according to regulators, and in the first three months of this year about 16% were electric.

Read more at the Guardian

Elon Musk, T-Mobile’s Sievert to ‘Announce Plans’ on Mobile Connectivity

Elon Musk’s SpaceX and T-Mobile are teaming up to offer mobile users phone service via Starlink satellites, the companies announced on Thursday. The service will be particularly useful in areas with no cell coverage, particularly when there’s an emergency, SpaceX founder Musk said at an event in Texas.

SpaceX and T-Mobile said in a press release that the new plan would “provide near complete coverage in most places in the US — even in many of the most remote locations previously unreachable by traditional cell signals.” The service is expected to launch next year with T-Mobile using its mid-band spectrum to create a new network, T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert said at the same event. It will work with most phones and text service is the first to be rolled out, he added. 

Read more at Business Insider

Apply for the 2022 Innovation Challenge Grant– Advanced Materials

FuzeHub administers the Jeff Lawrence Innovation Fund, which supports a set of activities designed to spur technology development and commercialization across New York State. As part of the Fund, FuzeHub will administer a New York State Advanced Materials Innovation Challenge. The purpose of this Innovation Challenge is to leverage the power of advanced materials to promote greater environmental sustainability.

Manufacturing in New York State is cleaner and greener than ever before, but manufacturing can still have harmful effects on the environment. Through the use of advanced materials, FuzeHub believes that manufacturers can make products, leverage technologies, and use processes that strengthen sustainability. Importantly, the application must advance “environmental sustainability”, the responsibility to conserve natural resources and protect ecosystems now and into the future. The strongest applications will use advanced materials that are themselves sustainable within applications that promote environmental sustainability.

Learn More at FuzeHub

Will Reshoring Chip Production Help Fix the Supply Chain?

Billions in federal spending to boost production of computer chips is an important step toward making the U.S. more competitive in the global marketplace, but it doesn’t guarantee that a manufacturing boom will follow, said Wharton expert Morris Cohen.

“I think it will have an incremental effect that will be positive in terms of the manufacturing footprint for semiconductors in the U.S. But will it absolutely reverse the trend? No, I don’t think so,” he said.  Cohen, who is professor emeritus of operations, information and decisions, Cohen said news about the shortages hasn’t been overblown; demand for such products went up in ways that industries did not expect and were not prepared for. But the availability of homemade semiconductors won’t necessarily encourage more American manufacturing of other products that need them, like cars.

Read more at Knowledge@Wharton

Daily Briefing – 558

Durable Goods Orders Virtually Unchanged at $273.5 Billion in July

New orders for manufactured durable goods orders in the US stayed virtually unchanged at $273.5 billion in July, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This reading followed June’s 2.2% expansion and came in worse than the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. Overall orders for durable goods—which include factory equipment, computers and washing machines—increased in nine of the past 12 months through July.

“Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3%,” the publication further read. “Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.2%. Transportation equipment, down following three consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.7% to $93.0 billion.” The figures reflect continued demand from businesses and consumers—and rising prices. Orders figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, which ran near a four-decade high last month.

Read more at MarketWatch

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Defiant Ukraine Marks Independence Day Six Months After Invasion – Yahoo
• UK’s Boris Johnson, in Kyiv, Warns Against ‘flimsy’ Plan for Talks With Russia – Reuters
• Biden Pledges $3B Weapons Package to Ukraine to Mark Kyiv’s Independence Day – The Hill
• Ukraine Says Missile Strike Kills 15 as Country Marked Subdued Independence Day – WSJ
• ‘All of it is a Lie’: Russian Paratrooper Condemns his Country’s War in Ukraine – CNN
• How the Ukraine-Russia War Rattled Global Financial Markets – Reuters
• Ukraine Marks Subdued Independence Day With Charred Russian Vehicles – WSJ
• Video: Ex-CIA Director Predicts What’s Next in Russia-Ukraine War – CNN
• Sanctions-Hit Russia Sending Fuel Oil to Asia, Ship-to-Ship Terminals – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Biden Announces $10K in Student Loan Debt will be Canceled for Borrowers Making Under $125K

President Biden on Wednesday announced he’s canceling $10,000 in student debt for Americans making under $125,000 a year. According to the details of the plan borrowers will have to pay no more than 5% of their discretionary income monthly on undergraduate loans, down from 10%, and will have their unpaid monthly interest covered as long as they’re making payments. It will also forgive loan balances after 10 years of payment for those with balances of $12,000 or less, down from 20 years. While the individual cap is $125,000, households earning under $250,000 will also be eligible.

The plan has faced criticism from Republicans, who have said it’s unfair to those who paid off their loans and is potentially dangerous to inflation, although student loan payments have been paused since early 2020. The Republican National Committee was already attacking the plan as a “handout to the rich” earlier this week.

Read more at Yahoo

Hochul: COVID Rules for Schools Will Ease this Fall

Officials plan to align New York’s pandemic rules for schools and other areas with updated guidelines released earlier this month by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  The development means students will no longer have to “test to stay” if exposed to COVID-19. Classrooms with COVID exposure will not be sent home. Students with COVID symptoms will still be advised to test and wear a mask.

Officials also do not expect the state to require masking indoors when schools reopen. Hochul, at a news conference Monday, acknowledged the toll of remote learning on students, especially lower-income kids, during the pandemic and that it is something officials do not want to repeat. “We are no longer keeping kids from essential of being together in a classroom because we are still dealing with the fallout,” Hochul said. “There was concern in classroom but we now have two years of experience. we know kids are safe in classroom and when traditional learning stops it can be devastating for the well being of those children.”

Read more at Spectrum News

U.S. COVID – First Two Years of the Pandemic Caused 1.2 Million Excess Deaths in the US

In a recent study posted to the medRxiv pre-print server, researchers used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages to estimate excess mortality, defined as the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths in the US. The scientists calculated excess mortality stratified by age, region, gender, and ethnicity during the first two years of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The study results showed a more than 20% increase in all-cause deaths in the United States, resulting in nearly 1.2 million more deaths than expected in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some age and ethnic groups suffered disproportionately; for instance, the young people, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic people, and those living in the South showed a higher deviation in all-cause deaths relative to the historic US standards.

Read more at Medical Life Sciences News 

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Covid-19 Booster Campaign Is Expected to Launch Next Month

The Biden administration has completed plans for a fall Covid-19 booster campaign that would launch in September with 175 million updated vaccine doses provided to states, pharmacies and other vaccination sites. Administration officials have expressed hope that the boosters would help head off a wave of serious illnesses and deaths in the fall and winter, when cases often increase as more people gather indoors. Yet the campaign is expected to face challenges, including waning public interest in booster shots and a mutating virus that risks making even the tweaked boosters less effective.

The administration is procuring the doses, which drugmakers are updating to target the newest versions of the virus. The administration has also informed states, pharmacies and other entities they can begin preordering now through the end of August, according to the administration’s fall vaccination planning guide. Vaccines would be shipped immediately following an expected authorization by federal drug regulators.

Read more at the WSJ

Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?

Inflation talk is expected to dominate the Federal Reserve’s annual summer gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that starts today and runs  until Saturday.  The title of this year’s symposium is “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” Inflation is certain to be the hottest, although not the only topic discussed, and nearly every word published or spoken will be painstakingly parsed by traders and analysts for any hint of what it might indicate about the central bank’s policy trajectory.

“It’s interesting how this August speech of the Fed chair at Jackson Hole has become such an important platform for the Fed to influence market expectations about policy. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. Of particular interest to market participants is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech on Friday morning.

Read more at CNN

Releasing Employers’ 2016-2020 EEO-1 Reports…Unless You Object

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) received a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for detailed EEO-1 Report employee demographic information that thousands of U.S. employers submitted from 2016 through 2020. Unless these employers submit objections by September 19, OFCCP plans to release their currently non-public demographic employee data in response to the request.

While the FOIA request seeks only disclosure of EEO-1 Reports for federal contractors and first-tier subcontractors, OFCCP has not identified which specific employers it believes the request covers. As a result, employers that may not believe they are federal contractors, and do not consent to this disclosure, may consider objecting. According to OFCCP’s notice, any objection should also include answers to these questions to evaluate the application of FOIA Exemption 4

Read more at Jackson Lewis

How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation? 

What factors are behind the recent inflation surge has been a huge topic of debate amongst academics and policymakers. We know that pandemic-related supply constraints such as labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks have been key factors pushing inflation higher. These bottlenecks started with the pandemic (lockdowns, sick workers) and were made worse by the push arising from increased demand caused by very expansionary fiscal and monetary policy.

Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. inflation over the 2019-21 period was due to the jump in demand for goods while 40 percent owed to supply-side issues that magnified the impact of this higher demand.

Read more at the NY Fed

The Great Resignation is Starting to Slow Down

The Great Resignation slowed this summer, with the number of U.S. workers leaving their employer dropping to 4.1% in July, down from 5.9% a year ago.  But while the number of workers actually moving to new jobs sunk, that hasn’t stopped Americans from continuing to look around for a better job. The number of survey respondents who say they are actively searching for a new job in the past four weeks increased to 24.7% from 24.0% in July 2021, driven largely by workers under 45 and those with a college degree.

July’s churn rate, while down year over year, is still a slight increase over spring data that showed 3.4% of workers moved to a new employer in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data July 2022 SCE Labor Market Survey, which every four months surveys consumers’ experiences and expectations regarding the labor market. The overall quit rate has trended slightly down in recent months from the recent high in December 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Read more at Fortune

A Staggering Number of People are now Afraid of Losing Their Jobs

Accelerating layoffs and fears of an upcoming recession are causing employee anxiety about job security, new data finds. According to Lemon.io, a marketplace of vetted software developers, searches for “Will I lose my job in a recession?” are up a staggering 9,900% in the past 12 months. For the data, Lemon.io analyzed Google search trends to see how people were coping.

It’s undoubtedly been an employee-driven market in recent months, with scores of workers leaving their jobs in a phenomenon dubbed the Great Resignation. But as the economic climate shifts—inflation has been at a 40-year high, for instance—employee confidence is starting to shift too. A staggering number of employees are afraid of losing their jobs if a recession occurs, new data finds. That’s causing increased amounts of employee anxiety, says Aleksandr Volodarsky, CEO at Lemon.io.

Read more at HR Executive

The Surprise in a Faltering Economy: Laid-Off Workers Quickly Find Jobs

Companies in a broadening array of industries are announcing layoffs as they struggle with declining business activity, rising interest rates, high inflation and shifting consumer-spending habits. Ford Motor Co. confirmed Monday it is laying off roughly 3,000 white-collar and contract employees, and furniture company Wayfair Inc. recently said it was laying off 5% of its global workforce.

But one characteristic of today’s economy is that job cuts at small startups and large companies have yet to dent the overall labor market. Labor demand is still historically strong, offering only faint signs of cooling. There are nearly two job openings for every unemployed person seeking work. That means many workers who are losing their jobs are quickly landing jobs. Some are even weighing multiple offers and accepting positions that pay more and better align with their skills.

Read more at the WSJ

Japan Turns Back to Nuclear Power in Significant Policy Shift as Fuel Prices Soar

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Wednesday Japan will restart idled nuclear plants and consider developing next-generation reactors, in a policy reversal that will see the nation turn back toward atomic energy as fuel prices soar worldwide. Kishida told reporters he had instructed officials to come up with concrete measures by the end of the year.

The move is a significant shift for Japan, which has dialed back its use of nuclear power since 2011, when a tsunami triggered by a massive earthquake sent water crashing into the Fukushima Daiichi power plant — leading to the world’s worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986.  Since then, the public has been skeptical about nuclear power and Japan has made strict safety updates at plants throughout the country. In recent years the country has also imported greater amounts of natural gas and coal to meet its energy needs.

Read more at CNN

Department of Labor Accuses Second Alabama Hyundai Supplier of Employing Minors

Reuters reported Monday that the Department of Labor has accused a second Alabaman parts supplier with using child labor. The target of the lawsuit, SL Alabama LLC, is a U.S. supplier for Hyundai Motor Co., and the second Alabama-based Hyundai supplier in as many months to be accused of violating child labor practices.

According to the Department of Labor lawsuit, SL Alabama employed “minors under the age of 16” and engaged in “oppressive child labor,” which can refer either to employing children under 16 or children under 18 in notably hazardous environments like factories or mines. In a statement to the news organization Reuters, which broke the story, SL Alabama admitted to employing children at its Alexander City, Alabama factory but blamed the hires on an unidentified labor recruitment firm.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Honda Considering Decoupling Supply Chain from China, Report Says

Honda Motor Co. is considering building a separate supply chain that would reduce its dependence on China, the Sankei newspaper reported on Wednesday, in what would be a high profile move with global implications by a major Japanese manufacturer. Many big Japanese companies have built extensive production hubs in China but have recently seen output snarled by COVID-19-related lockdowns. There are also deepening worries about the impact of political tensions between the U.S. and China.

A Honda spokesperson said the Sankei report is not something announced by the company, adding it has been working on reviewing and risk-hedging its supply chain in general. Nearly 40 percent of Honda’s automobile production took place in China in the last financial year.

Read more at Automotive News

Against Expectations, Global Food Prices Have Tumbled

Last week wheat futures in Chicago, for delivery in December, dropped to $7.70 per bushel, far below the $12.79 they reached three months earlier and back to their level in February. Corn is also back to its pre-war price. Meanwhile, palm oil, found in thousands of dishes from ice cream to instant noodles, has dropped not only back to its pre-war price, but to below it.

The recent deal brokered by the United Nations, allowing Ukrainian grain exports to leave the port of Odessa, can only explain a fraction of the shift: it was inked in late July, after most of the decline in prices. More can be credited to the strength of Russian wheat exports. America’s agriculture department suggests that Russian farms, far from being disrupted, will export a record 38m tonnes in 2022-23, some 2m tonnes more than they managed the previous year. A bumper harvest is under way, in part due to good weather earlier in the year, and there is strong demand from traditional importers in north Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

Read more at The Economist

Daily Briefing – 557

Pat Ryan Defeats Marc Molinaro in 19th Congressional Special Election

Ryan fended off Molinaro in a special election Tuesday for the vacated 19th district seat, in unofficial results. Ryan garnered 51.07% of the vote to Molinaro’s 48.75%, according to the state Board of Elections. More than 129,000 ballots were cast, not counting absentees, of roughly 476,000 active registered voters in the district.  Ryan won his home county by more than 9,000 votes.

Molinaro based his campaign in recent weeks on the faltering economy and public safety, tying Ryan to complaints with the leadership of Democrats Gov. Kathy Hochul and President Joe Biden. Ryan likewise discussed economic solutions, but focused on personal freedoms, namely abortion rights. He often framed issues through the lens of his military background. Ryan is a U.S. Army veteran who served two combat tours in Iraq after graduating from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

Read more at the Poughkeepsie Journal

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• US to Send $3 Billion in Aid to Ukraine as War Hits 6 Months – USA Today
• State Department Advises U.S. Citizens to Leave Ukraine, Russia is ‘Stepping up Efforts’ Against Civilians – Politico
• Football Returns to War-Torn Ukraine as Shakhtar Draw with Metalist 1925 – Reuters
• After Six Months of War in Ukraine, Momentum Tilts Against Russia – WSJ
• Meltdown Averted but Six Months on, Russians Face Economic Pain – Reuters
• Putin’s War is Shattering Views of Russia and Ukraine – The Hill
• Ukraine warns Moscow against ‘despicable show trial’ of POWs – Politico
• Russia and Turkey’s Deepening Ties Prompt Concern in West Over Sanctions Compliance – WSJ
• Baltic States, Poland and Finland Could Ban Russian Tourists, Says Lithuania – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

US: S&P Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.3 in August

The data published by S&P Global showed on Tuesday that the business activity in the US private sector contracted at a stronger pace in early August than it did in July with the Composite PMI falling to 45 from 47.7. The Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.3 from 52.2 and the Services PMI plunged to 44.1 from 47.3. Both of these readings fell short of market expectations.

“August flash PMI data signaled further disconcerting signs for the health of the US private sector. Demand conditions were dampened again, sparked by the impact of interest rate hikes and strong inflationary pressures on customer spending, which weighed on activity,” noted  Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Read more at FXStreet

Global Economies Flash Warning of Sharp Slowdown

Business activity in Europe and Japan fell in August, according to new surveys, pointing to a sharp slowdown in global economic growth as higher prices weaken consumer demand and the war in Ukraine scrambles supply chains. The PMI for Germany pointed to the sharpest decline in business activity since June 2020, while the measure for France pointed to the first decline in activity since the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Data firm S&P Global said its composite Purchasing Managers Index for the eurozone—which measures activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors—fell to 49.2 in August from 49.9 in July, reaching an 18-month low. A reading below 50.0 indicates a decline in activity. Manufacturing output fell for the third straight month, while the services sector narrowly avoided a contraction. Businesses in both sectors reported a decline in new orders, which points to weakness in the months to come, while factories reported a buildup in inventories as goods remained unsold.

Read more the WSJ

U.S. COVID

On August 19, the US FDA expanded its emergency use authorization (EUA) of Novavax’s protein-based COVID-19 vaccine to include adolescents. The FDA initially authorized the 2-dose primary series vaccine for adults in July, demonstrating 90% efficacy, and the shots will now be available for individuals aged 12 to 17, among whom it showed 80% clinical efficacy. The 2 doses are given 3 weeks apart.

The Novavax vaccine uses a more traditional, protein-based technology that teaches the immune system to recognize small, modified pieces of the coronavirus spike protein. This older technology is also used in vaccines for hepatitis B, HPV, and pertussis. The Novavax vaccine also contains the Matrix-M adjuvant, which helps to induce a broader immune response. In July, the company announced that the vaccine shows “broad” immune response to circulating variants, including Omicron BA.4 and BA.5. However, Novavax is also working on an updated version of the vaccine that specifically targets the Omicron variant and subvariants. The company intends to file for authorization for a bivalent vaccine later this year.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine 73 Percent Effective in Children Under 5

Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine was 73.2 percent effective against the disease in children under five, the company said Tuesday.  The company touted the data as reinforcing the importance of the vaccine, which was authorized in June, after months of waiting for a vaccine for the youngest children. The results, based on 34 cases, came when the strain of the virus circulating was primarily the omicron subvariant BA.2, slightly different than the BA.5 omicron subvariant that is largely circulating now.  

The effectiveness is for after three shots of the vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine’s authorization was delayed earlier this year to allow time to study a third shot, with the idea that two shots was not enough.  

Read more at The Hill

New York State Led US Life-Expectancy Drop in 2020, CDC Says

Every state saw a decline in life expectancy during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new federal data published Tuesday. The report, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics, looked at death data for 2020, the last year for which complete data is available.

Results found that life expectancy declined in all 50 states and the District of Columbia from 2019 to 2020, mainly due to COVID and “unintentional injuries,” such as drug overdoses, according to the report. For the United States overall, life expectancy at birth was 77.0 years — a decrease of 1.8 years from the life expectancy of 78.8 years in 2020. New York saw the biggest drop from 80.7 years to 77.7 years, and Hawaii saw the smallest drop from 80.9 years to 80.7 years.

Read more at ABC News

NY Fed: Pass-Through of Wages and Import Prices Has Increased in the Post-COVID Period

The broad-based nature of the recent inflation readings has increased concerns that inflation may run above the Federal Reserve’s target for a longer period than anticipated. In this post we use detailed industry-level data to examine two prominent cost-push-based explanations for high inflation: rising import prices and higher labor costs.

A study from the NY Fed finds that the pass-through of wages and input prices to the U.S. Producer Price Index has grown during the pandemic. Both the large changes in these costs and a higher pass-through into domestic prices have contributed toward higher inflation.

Read more at the NY Fed

New Home Sales Fall 12.6% in July as Rising Prices Take a Toll

Sales of newly constructed homes fell by 12.6% in July from June and were down 29.6% from a year ago, according to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau. It was the second consecutive month of declines.

Only 511,000 new homes were sold last month, at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down from a revised 585,000 in June. That’s the lowest sales number since January 2016. A year ago, 726,000 newly constructed homes were sold. Meanwhile, the median price for a new construction home rose to $439,400, up from $402,400 the previous month.

Read more at CNN 

Economic Growth In Japan Close To Stalling In July Led By Renewed Manufacturing Decline

The preliminary PMI survey results for July signal a significant loss of growth momentum in the Japanese economy at the start of the third quarter. While second quarter growth had been boosted by the reopening of the economy from Omicron-related containment, July has seen this rebound fade leading to much-reduced service sector growth and a renewed fall in manufacturing output.

The details found in the survey’s sub-indices, such as new orders and inventories, points to the trend deteriorating further in August. Price pressures meanwhile cooled amid the waning demand environment, albeit down only slightly from June’s all-time high.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

UK Manufacturing Downturn Pushes Economic Activity to Stagnation

Britain’s factories are bearing the brunt of the slowdown in the economy as higher costs, weaker demand and supply bottlenecks combine to send output plunging. Two separate snapshots of industrial activity showed a decline in manufacturing activity – part of a Europe-wide trend exacerbated by the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. The monthly purchasing managers’ index from S&P/Cips found manufacturing output at its weakest level since the early stages of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

Modest growth in the UK’s much bigger service sector prevented the overall measure of private-sector activity dipping below 50, but the drop from 52.1 to 50.9 left the composite index at its weakest in 18 months. The eurozone’s overall PMI fell from 49.9 to 49.2 in August, also the lowest in 18 months.

Read more at The Guardian

Foreign Exchange Markets – Dollar Runs as Euro Plunges

Risk aversion took over financial markets at the beginning of the week amid recession fears hitting European shores. Gas prices soared in the region to new record highs as Russia announced unscheduled maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, announcing it will shut it down for three days starting August 31.

The EUR/USD pair collapsed to a fresh 22-year low of 0.9925, holding nearby early in the Asian session. GBP/USD fell to its lowest since March 2020, trading at around 1.1760. Commodity-linked currencies were also down, with AUD/USD trading at the lower end of its August range in the 0.6870 area and the USD/CAD pair reaching a one-month high of 1.3060. The greenback appreciated against its safe-haven rivals, with USD/CHF trading at 0.9640 and USD/JPY 137.40. Gold trades at around $1,737 a troy ounce.

Read more at FXStreet

How U.S. Companies Suffer From A Strong Dollar

A strong dollar is great for businesses that import products or parts and a strong dollar is good for the international traveler. However, the negative impact on U.S. companies that do business internationally or have international customers, cannot be discounted. And in the case of a pending 2022 global recession, it’s going to be like a 1-2 punch for U.S. based firms operating on foreign soil.

One reason for the additional strength is that we are seeing an increase in interest rates. The higher rates attract foriegn investors to hold their money in U.S. dollars and this drives up the demand for the currency, thus strengthening the dollar. Foriegn exchange markets are always changing.

Read more at Forbes

Endless Demand Spurs U.S. Natural-Gas Prices to Shale-Era Highs

The 14-year highs reached this week by U.S. natural-gas futures show the unceasing demand for U.S. shale gas across the Atlantic—and likely point to higher prices ahead. Surging prices in Europe, weather that remains hotter than normal in much of the country and the heart of hurricane season, when storms can knock out production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, threaten to send prices higher, analysts and traders say. 

The latest price spike came in response to Russia’s plans to shut down one of Europe’s main fuel arteries for a few days at the end of the month. The shutdown announced Friday is either the latest episode of unplanned maintenance along the vital Nord Stream gas pipeline or an act of economic warfare on Russia’s part in retaliation for Western Europe’s support for Ukraine.

Read more at the WSJ

White House to Announce Student Loan Cancellation, Payment Pause Extension Today

Sources said President Biden’s intended measure will include at least $10,000 in loan forgiveness for borrowers who make less than $125,000 annually, as well as another payment freeze for roughly four months. The $10,000 figure would be the largest forgiveness of federal student loans per individual to date.

The move comes just a week ahead of the White House’s self-imposed Aug. 31 deadline. The timing has left millions of Americans waiting for guidance from the Department of Education on whether student loan payments that have been deferred since the start of the pandemic would resume next month.

Read more at The Hill

Daily Briefing – 556

Pandemic Bolsters China’s Position as the World’s Manufacturer

Though some of China’s gains in global markets may unwind as the effects of the pandemic fade, the trend nonetheless highlights just how hard it is to unplug from the world’s largest factory floor. Such “decoupling,” as it is known in policy circles, is especially challenging as Chinese factories extend their reach into higher-end products like chips and smartphones and new technologies such as electric cars and green energy.

China’s share of global goods exports by value increased over the course of the pandemic, to 15% by the end of 2021 from 13% in 2019, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, which tracks global trade.  Major competitors’ share of global exports shrank over the same period, suggesting China’s gains came at the expense of others. Germany’s share of global exports fell to 7.3% in 2021 from 7.8% in 2019; Japan’s share declined to 3.4% from 3.7%; and the U.S.’s share slipped to 7.9% from 8.6%.

Read more at the WSJ

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukraine War: Six Months that Shook the World – Reuters
• Russia’s Best and Brightest are Leaving the Country in Record Numbers. 6 Young Russians Explain Why They Left – Fortune
• Almost 9,000 Ukrainian Military Killed in War with Russia -Armed Forces Chief – Reuters
• U.S. Warned Russian Ambassador Over Ukraine Nuclear Plant Last Week – State Dept – Reuters
• European Gas Prices Surge as Russian Pipeline Maintenance Fuels Fears of a Total Shutdown – CNBC
• Russian Security Service Accuses Ukraine of killing Ultra-Nationalist’s Daughter – Reuters
• Ukraine’s Zelensky Warns Against Trial of Prisoners Captured at Azovstal Steel Plant – WSJ
• Ukraine Bans Independence Day Rallies for Fear of Russian Rocket Strikes – Reuters
• U.S. Steps Up Enforcement of Its Long List of Russia Sanctions – WSJ
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro in NY-19 Special Election Today

A special election here next week could offer Democrats a preview of the pain coming their way in November. Or it could provide powerful evidence that a Republican wave election is not in the offing. The matchup in the 19th district, which Biden carried by less than 2 points in 2020, is between Ryan, the Ulster County executive who has campaigned aggressively on abortion rights, and Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive who has framed his bid as a referendum on the Biden administration’s economic failures. 

Both parties are dumping money into this Hudson Valley district to notch a short-lived but symbolic victory in the last competitive race before the midterms. The winner will succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado for just a few months. But the messaging, turnout and margin of the contest will offer tea leaves into what lies ahead this fall in the battle for control of the House.

Read more at City & State

Fauci to Leave Biden Administration in December

Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser and the government’s top infectious disease official, said he would step down in December. In addition to his role as Mr. Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Fauci is director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief of NIAID’s Laboratory of Immunoregulation. He will step down from all three roles.

Before 2020, he often received bipartisan praise. During the Covid-19 pandemic, he was praised by many public-health officials and Democrats for what they said were straightforward assessments of the risks posed by the virus. He became a household name, appearing on T-shirts and tote bags. Many Republicans criticized him, however, arguing he overstated the government’s authority to require precautions and flip-flopped on how the coronavirus spread and the need to mask.

Read more at the WSJ

U.S. COVID – Omicron-Specific Covid Booster Shots are Just Weeks Away. Here’s Who Will—and Won’t—be Eligible

Newly updated Covid booster shots designed to target omicron’s BA.5 subvariant should be available within in the next three weeks. That begs an important question: Who’s going to be eligible to get them?

The short answer: anyone ages 12 and up who has completed a primary vaccination series, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson tells CNBC Make It. It’s unlikely to matter whether you’ve received any other booster doses or not before, the spokesperson says — but if you’re unvaccinated, you won’t eligible for the updated formula until you complete a primary series with the existing Covid vaccines.  The longer answer is somewhat more complex, because it depends on which booster shots get approved and when.

Read more at CNBC

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Pfizer Seeks Authorization for Updated COVID Vaccine, Without Fresh Clinical Trial Data

Pfizer and BioNTech said Monday that they have asked the Food and Drug Administration to authorize a new booster shot targeted at the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 strain of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, the first step in a process that could lead to more effective booster shots. Notably, in the same press release, the companies said that a clinical study investigating the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of the vaccine, which also includes the original Covid strain, is expected to start this month, meaning data would not be available for the FDA to consider.

The application to authorize the vaccine without new clinical trial data is part of a bold and potentially controversial gambit by the U.S. and its advisers to try and get ahead of the fast-mutating coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. But it’s one that could also have a big payoff. One of the problems for the Covid vaccines is that by the time a booster shot designed to take on a variant has gone through clinical trials – which have already been accelerated to take only a matter of months – a new variant may be on the horizon. So the FDA and its advisers have backed a plan that argues that enough is now known about the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech platforms to approve booster shots before clinical data are available.

Read more at STAT News

COVID-19 Associated with Increased Risk of Brain Disorders 2 Years After Infection

A study published on Wednesday shows a history of COVID-19 infection is associated with an increased risk of neurological aftereffects. “COVID-19 is associated with increased risks of neurological and psychiatric sequelae in the weeks and months thereafter,” reads the study, titled “Neurological and psychiatric risk trajectories after SARS-CoV-2 infection: an analysis of 2-year retrospective cohort studies including 1,284,437 patients.” Sequelae are conditions resulting from a prior illness or incident.

The study examined de-identified data from more than a million patients using an international health records network that drew from the U.S., Australia, the U.K., Spain, Bulgaria, India, Malaysia and Taiwan. Most patients considered by the study were American.

Read more at The Hill

Boeing, MIT Announce Decarbonized Aerospace Research Partnership

On August 15, at the Farnborough Air Show, Boeing Co. and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology announced a new three-year project to research how the aerospace industry can reduce or eliminate carbon emissions. The project, Pathways to Sustainable Aviation, will send its findings to a real-time visualization of aerospace-related carbon emissions called Cascade.

“Addressing how the aerospace industry reduces its environmental footprint is critical to the future of air travel,” said project’s lead principal investigator, R. John Hansman, professor aeronautics at MIT. Hansman, who also leads the International Center for Air Transportation at the institute, said he looked forward to examining how to make flying greener on an industry scale.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Five Things to Watch in Today’s New York Congressional and State Senate Primaries

 On Tuesday, voters will weigh in on state Senate and Congress. Vacancies in the House thanks to retirements, resignations and running for other offices – not to mention redistricting – have resulted in a large number of candidates running in congressional races across the state. And several high-profile state Senate races could have reverberating impacts on the direction of the chamber.

It’s a lot to keep straight, so here are four of the biggest things to watch on Tuesday.

Read more at City & State

Worsening Drought Seen as Next Big Threat of Economic Disruption

What do factory shutdowns in China, shipping delays in Europe and reduced agricultural output in the U.S. have to do with each other? They are all being caused by severe droughts impacting the world’s largest economies. Researchers say the dry spells are partly because of seasonal weather patterns like La Niña, but are also related to consequences of land degradation and climate change.

The Chinese province of Sichuan just announced it would extend industrial power cuts and activate its highest emergency response, impacting a number of global manufacturers like Apple, Foxconn, Toyota  and Volkswagen. The vital Yangtze, the longest river in Asia, reached its lowest level on record for August, affecting supply of hydropower and causing widespread shortages. Over in Europe, cargo ships have had to reduce their loads due to critically low levels of the Rhine. The waterway is usually occupied with vessels transporting raw materials to power plants and factories, and Italy has even declared a state of emergency along its important Po River. Separately, agricultural forecasters in the U.S. now expect farmers to lose more than 40% of the cotton crop, while many acres of farmland are being left unplanted because of water shortages. 

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Europe’s Natural-Gas Crunch Sparks Global Battle for Tankers

European countries ramped up their purchases of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., Qatar and other sources this year as Russia cut supplies to the continent. They are competing with peers in South Korea and Japan—where gas demand has surged during a heat wave—for a finite amount of supply ferried by a limited number of vessels.

The jostling has increased orders for new tankers transporting LNG—specialized ships the length of three football fields—as well as their price. Rates to charter existing tankers have jumped too, which has helped push gas prices to records in Europe and Asia. Gas prices in Europe jumped a further 19% Monday after Russia said it would temporarily close a major pipeline for unexpected maintenance later this month. The rise in Europe dragged the U.S. natural-gas market up 5.6% to its highest level since 2008. Traders expect gas prices and tanker rates to zoom even higher if China, where demand has been curtailed by Covid-19 lockdowns, steps back into the market before winter. 

Read more at the WSJ

Ford Confirms Layoffs, Says It Is Cutting About 3,000 Jobs

Ford Motor Co. plans to eliminate 3,000 jobs globally this week, according to a letter sent to employees Monday and obtained by Automotive News.  The automaker is cutting 2,000 salaried positions and 1,000 agency jobs, CEO Jim Farley and Executive Chair Bill Ford said. Affected employees in the U.S., Canada and India will be informed this week, the letter said. The cuts are expected across a variety of roles, including purchasing, and are expected to come in both its Ford Blue and Model e divisions. The company told employees that in addition to eliminating jobs, it is reorganizing and simplifying functions within its organization.

“Building this future requires changing and reshaping virtually all aspects of the way we have operated for more than a century,” Farley and Ford wrote. “It requires focus, clarity and speed. And, as we have discussed in recent months, it means redeploying resources and addressing our cost structure, which is uncompetitive versus traditional and new competitors.”

 Read more at Automotive News

Chinese Banks Cut Rates to Spur Economic Growth

Banks in China cut benchmark interest rates on loans to households and businesses, a small attempt to help revive growth in an economy struggling with a property bust and Beijing’s zero-tolerance to Covid-19. Changes to so-called loan prime rates, which are set by a panel of banks and represent the terms offered to the most creditworthy borrowers, usually follow soon after.

Economists say interest-rate cuts will probably do little to revive growth in China’s flagging economy, where would-be borrowers are on edge over the threat of new disruptions to daily life from any new Covid-19 outbreaks and gloomy about their prospects against a worsening backdrop for growth and jobs. That is sapping demand for loans.

Read more a the WSJ

General Dynamics Contracted for USN Subs Program

The U.S. Dept. of Defense allocated $236.2 million to General Dynamics Electric Boat for engineering, technical, design, and planning yard support services for operational strategic and attack submarines – as a modification to an earlier contract. The work will be performed at Groton, Conn., Kings Bay, Ga., Bangor, Wash., Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, and North Kingston and Newport, R.I. Work under this contract modification will be completed by September 2023.

The U.S. Navy operates three types of submarines, for attack, ballistic missile launch, and cruise missile launch – all of them nuclear powered. There are four classes of subs in service now: 29 Los Angeles-class and three Seawolf-class fast-attack submarines; 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile subs plus four more guided missile subs; and 19 Virginia-class fast attack subs. Two more Virginia-class subs have been delivered to the Navy, while seven are in construction now and two more are on order.

Read more at American Machinist

BA to Cut More Than 10,000 Flights from Winter Schedule

British Airways is to cut more than 10,000 flights from its winter schedule, in one of the clearest signs yet that airline bosses expect staff shortages and disruption that have plagued the industry to last into next year. It is the latest blow to the aviation industry, which cut thousands of jobs during the pandemic and is now struggling to rehire quickly enough to meet resurgent demand as passengers return.

The world’s leading airlines have also faced the twin headwinds of a worsening economic outlook and rising fuel costs that will need to be passed on to travelers through higher ticket prices. BA’s cuts to short-haul journeys amount to 8 per cent of its flight schedules between October and March, and come after the airline was forced to slash its summer flying plans to shore up its flagging operations. The airline has also axed hundreds of long-haul flights.

Read more at The Financial Times

Daily Briefing – 555

PwC Survey: 50% of Companies Want to Cut Headcount

A new survey from consultancy PwC released this month showed 50% of companies are planning to reduce overall headcount. Additionally, 46% of companies said they are dropping or reducing signing bonuses, while 44% are rescinding offers. Reducing overall headcount doesn’t mean all of the respondents to PwC’s survey are planning layoffs, but at least indicates plans similar to what we’ve seen in the tech industry, where backfills are paused, or previously allocated heads are cut from a department’s budget.

As the report says: “Respondents are also taking proactive steps to streamline the workforce and establish the appropriate mix of worker skills for the future. This comes as no surprise. After a frenzy of hiring and a tight labor market over the past few years, executives see the distinction between having people and having people with the right skills.”

Read more at YahooFinance

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Car Bomb Kills Daughter of Putin’s Friend and Ally – CNN
• Ukraine Denies Involvement in Car Bombing that Killed Russian Daria Dugina – USA Today
• Blasts and Fresh Drone Attacks Rock Russian-Held Areas far from Ukraine War Front – CNBC
• Wagner Mercenaries Enter the Spotlight as Russian Troops Struggle in Ukraine – WSJ
• Calm is an Illusion in Odesa – The Hill
• Russian Missiles Strike Ukraine’s Odesa Region – Reuters
• Xi and Putin to Attend G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia’s Jokowi Says – BBC
• White House Says Zelenskiy Should Join G-20 If Putin Attends – Bloomberg
• Zelenskyy, Putin Signal Support for International Inspection of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant – USA Today
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Tomorrow’s NY 19 Special Election Seen as National Bellwether 

A special election here next week could offer Democrats a preview of the pain coming their way in November. Or it could provide powerful evidence that a Republican wave election is not in the offing. The matchup in the 19th district, which Biden carried by less than 2 points in 2020, is between Ryan, the Ulster County executive who has campaigned aggressively on abortion rights, and Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive who has framed his bid as a referendum on the Biden administration’s economic failures. 

Both parties are dumping money into this Hudson Valley district to notch a short-lived but symbolic victory in the last competitive race before the midterms. The winner will succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado for just a few months. But the messaging, turnout and margin of the contest will offer tea leaves into what lies ahead this fall in the battle for control of the House.

Read more at Politico

CDC Announces Sweeping Reorganization Aimed at Restoring Public Trust

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky met with senior leadership at the agency last week to lay out her plans for overhauling how the agency works. She plans to remake the culture to help the agency move faster when it responds to a public health crisis. She also wants to make it easier for other parts of the government to work with the CDC, and wants to simplify and streamline the website to get rid of overlapping and contradictory public health guidance. The changes will be aimed at improving the culture and restoring public trust after the agency’s acknowledged missteps in its response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The new marching orders come after significant stumbles at the agency in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The US had little capacity to test for infection during the early months of the pandemic, largely because the agency released a flawed test to public health laboratories. That kept the nation blind, for months, to the extent of the virus’s spread.
The agency has also been criticized throughout the pandemic for issuing public health guidance that some saw as confusing and ineffective. Many also felt it wasn’t moving fast enough to respond.

Read more at CNN

U.S. COVID – Daily Cases Drop Below 100,000

The US CDC is reporting 93 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,033,332 deaths. The current 7-day moving average of new daily cases is down over last week, dropping to 98,940 on August 16 from 107,899 on August 9. The average daily mortality remains relatively stable, at 398 on August 16. Daily mortality has remained above or around 400 since July 12.  Both new hospital admissions (-3.5% over the past week) and current hospitalizations (-5.3%) decreased over the previous week, potentially reflecting a downward trend to the latest surge driven by the Omicron BA.5 subvariant. 

BA.5 is now projected to account for 88.8% of sequenced specimens in the US. The BA.4 sublineage accounts for about 5.3% of cases, while the BA.4.6 sublineage accounts for 5.1% of cases. Together, BA.2.12.1 accounts for only about 0.8% of cases. According to the estimate, Omicron variants represent all new cases in the US.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 19. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 13
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,360

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,427
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 236

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 5.82%    –   23.31 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 3.84%   –   22.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

U.S. Plans to Shift Bill for COVID Shots and Treatments to Insurers, Patients

The Biden administration is planning for an end to its practice of paying for Covid-19 shots and treatments, shifting more control of pricing and coverage to the healthcare industry in ways that could generate sales for companies—and costs for consumers—for years to come.  Both the Trump and Biden administrations always planned to shift the bill for Covid-19 shots and treatments from the federal government to individuals eventually. With Covid-19 cases dropping, more activities resuming and funding for the pandemic response running short, officials are now working to map out that transition.

Shifting payments for Covid-19 drugs and vaccines to the commercial market is expected to take months, an HHS spokesman said. At the meeting this month, officials and company representatives are expected to discuss reimbursement and coverage, regulatory issues and access to vaccines and treatment for the uninsured.

Read more at the WSJ

The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting Could Shake up Markets in the Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium could make headlines with investors looking for clues on the pace of rate hikes. The annual retreat by central bankers to the Tetons is getting more attention than normal.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to dig in a bit and establish his hawkish credentials. The tone from Powell could shift investor sentiment if he reiterates that the risks of inflation are more significant than the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy.

The Fed is still anticipated to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 or 75 points in September and follow with 25 or 50 points hikes in November and December. Fed watchers are also looking for more details on the Fed’s balance sheet reduction strategy.

Read more at Investors Business Daily

MacKenzie Scott gives $39 Million to Junior Achievement USA

Billionaire philanthropist MacKenzie Scott donated $38.8 million to Junior Achievement USA and 26 local operations—the largest single gift in its 103-year history—the national education nonprofit announced Tuesday. Like all of Scott’s nearly $12 billion in donations since 2019, her gift to Junior Achievement USA is unrestricted, meaning the Colorado-based nonprofit, which prepares students for adulthood by teaching them financial literacy, career skills and business ownership training, can use the funds for any project it wants.

Jack E. Kosakowski, Junior Achievement USA’s president and CEO, said he is thrilled by Scott’s unrestricted gift because it can be used to modernize the group’s technology infrastructure, a need that is rarely high on most donors’ priority lists. The $10 million will also help expand the nonprofit’s digital educational offerings and add volunteers in currently underserved areas.

Read more at Fortune

Mortgage Rates Slip to 5.13% – 

Mortgage rates inched down this week but remained near multiyear highs. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 5.13%, down from 5.22% last week and 5.81% in June, which was the highest rate since 2008, according to a survey by Freddie Mac. A year ago, the rate was 2.86%.

Elevated mortgage rates, along with fast-rising home prices, have cast a chill over the U.S. housing market because they are forcing prospective buyers to budget hundreds of extra dollars, or more, in monthly costs. The rise in rates also has choked off refinancing business, putting some mortgage companies in dire straits.

Read more at the WSJ

NYS Unemployment Rate Held Constant at 4.4% in July 2022

According to preliminary seasonally adjusted figures released last week by the New York State Department of Labor, the number of private sector jobs in New York State increased over the month by 38,900, or 0.5%, to 8,030,300 in July 2022.  New York State’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held constant at 4.4% in July 2022. From July 2021 to July 2022, the unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) fell from 7.1% to 4.8%. The number of unemployed New Yorkers decreased over the month by 800, from 416,400 in June to 415,600 in July 2022. The labor force increased to 9.52 million, still below the 9.9 million in February 2020. 

Over the past 12 months private sector employment in the Hudson Valley rose to 803,300 in July 2022.  The largest gains were in leisure and hospitality (+8,800), professional and business services (+8,200.) manufacturing added 700)

• See the Hudson Valley July Labor Market Profile 
• Read the NYS Labor July Press

iPhone 14 Unveiling Expected September 7

Apple is looking at holding its annual fall product event, including the announcement of its iPhone 14 product line, on Sept. 7, according to a Bloomberg report. The iPhone 14 lineup may include four models, including a Pro and Pro Max, which some analysts expect will both receive a $100 price increase over last year’s iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max models. The event is likely to see the unveiling of three Apple Watch models and perhaps new Macs and iPads as well. Bloomberg also reported that the new Apple products could reach stores on Sept. 16.

Separately on Wednesday, investment firm Wedbush Securities said Apple was seeing a “further slight improvement” in its supply chain. Analyst Dan Ives noted that the initial order of 90M iPhone 14 units has “stayed firm”, and despite the weakening economic conditions, strong demand is still there for Apple products. 

Read more at The Verge

Gubernatorial Candidate Zeldin Seeks Reversal of New York’s Ban on Natural Gas Drilling

Republican candidate for governor Lee Zeldin is pressing for a reversal of New York’s ban on a controversial natural gas extraction process, one that supporters have argued would bring much-needed jobs and people to parts of upstate, but critics have decried for environmental degradation. 

Ending a ban on hydrofracking — put in place administratively in 2014 by then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo and in law by the Democratic-controlled Legislature last year — would also be a heavy lift and conflict with a separate law requiring the state to transition to more renewable forms of energy in order to combat climate change. “Jobs can be created, we can generate revenue, we can drive down taxes,” Zeldin told reporters in July during a virtual news conference. “There’s a huge benefit for the state to reverse that safe extraction of natural gas ban that we have.”

Read more at NY State of Politics

US Jobless Claims Dip for First Time in Three Weeks

Applications for US unemployment insurance fell for the first time in three weeks, suggesting demand for labor remains healthy. Initial unemployment claims decreased by 2,000 to 250,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The date is particularly scrutinized because it corresponds with the reference period for the government’s August employment report, which will be released early next month.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 264,000 applications. Continuing claims for state benefits climbed to 1.44 million in the week ended Aug. 6, the highest since early April. The drop in jobless claims points to still-healthy labor demand as companies try to attract and retain employees amid lingering worker shortages. However, several employers have been laying off staff or freezing hiring amid economic uncertainty, which could continue as the Federal Reserve pursues an aggressive path of interest-rate hikes.

Read more at the Boston Globe

Skills-Based Hiring Gains Momentum

An interesting finding of the recent survey of 1,688 HR professionals is the use of skills assessments in hiring, including a willingness on the part of employers to consider candidates who do not have a college degree or the minimum years of experience.

The survey found that 79% of HR professionals say that scores on skills assessments are just as or more important than traditional criteria in hiring decisions, and 36% say a job candidate who scores high on an assessment but doesn’t meet the minimum years of experience is very likely to make it onto the list of final candidates. 23% of HR professionals said the diversity of their hires has improved using these assessments. Of organizations that utilize pre-employment assessments, 1 in 4 plan to expand their use of these assessments in the next five years.

Read more at EHS Today

Albany NanoTech Complex Set for Expansion from CHIPS Act

The Albany NanoTech Complex, slated for a 300,000-square-foot expansion within the next two years, is prepared to build upon its work innovating and designing microchip prototypes and accelerate their commercial manufacturing as the next big technological advancements develop.

Officials hope the recent signing of federal and state legislation to promote semiconductor manufacturing will turn Albany NanoTech, a research and development site for the critical technology, into a hub for the future. The recently signed CHIPS Act will invest $52 billion over the next five years to increase U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and invest in related research and workforce development.

Read more a Spectrum News

Daily Briefing – 554

Conference Board: CEO Confidence Deteriorated Further in Q3

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022. The Measure now stands at 34, down from 42 in Q2. The Measure has fallen deeper into negative territory, to lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but consistent with prior contractionary periods. (A reading below 50 points reflects more negative than positive responses.)

The Q3 survey asked CEOs to describe the economic conditions they are preparing to face over the next 12-18 months.  An overwhelming majority—81%—said they were preparing for a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillover, while only 7% said they do not expect a recession. Thus far, however, CEOs do not seem to be experiencing the recessionary conditions that typified recent contractions. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past three months.

Read more at The Conference Board 

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• China to Send Troops to Russia for ‘Vostok’ Exercise – Reuters
• Behind Enemy Lines, Ukrainians Tell Russians ‘You Are Never Safe’ – NYT
• Ukraine Has Telegraphed its Big Counteroffensive for Months. So Where is it? – Politico
• Ukraine Carries Out Emergency Drills Near Nuclear Plant on Frontline – US News
• Security Situation in Crimea Deteriorates for Moscow – CNBC
• Ukrainian Troops Go Through Urban Combat Training in the UK – Military Times
• U.S. to Buy Ukraine Grain, as Ship Traffic Increases – WSJ
• Russia Replaces Black Sea Fleet Chief After Crimea Setbacks – Reuters
• U.S. Veterans Race to Train Ukrainians as Marines; ‘Time Is Not on Their Side’ – WSJ
• Ukraine Expects Biggest Convoy of Ships to Load Since Grain Export Deal – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

U.S. Retail Spending Held Steady in July

Overall retail sales—a measure of spending at stores, online and in restaurants—were flat in July compared with the prior month’s revised 0.8% increase, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. But a measure of spending that strips out gasoline and auto sales rose 0.7% last month from June, showing shoppers maintained the ability to spend with much of the spending moving online.

Shoppers have maintained spending despite the highest annual U.S. inflation in four decades, though they are getting less for their money because of higher prices. The retail sales figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.  Spending at gasoline stations, which makes up about one-tenth of retail outlays, fell 1.8% on the month. Vehicle sales, which make up about a fifth of retail outlays, declined 1.6% as inventory shortages lingered.

Read more at the WSJ

Wave of Port Strikes Put Global Supply Chains Under Fresh Pressure

A fresh wave of labor strikes at U.K. ports triggered by the spiraling cost of living are adding further strain to battered supply chains, just as they begin to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 500 stevedores at Britain’s fourth largest port, Liverpool’s Peel Port, voted Monday to strike after rejecting a 7 percent pay hike. Staff are demanding pay increases in line with soaring inflation — already more than 9 percent, and rising fast.

Pandemic-induced sky-high shipping container prices that spurred inflation, and bottlenecks created as people rushed to buy goods are finally receding, Rogers added, making the timing of the latest wave of strikes “particularly unfortunate, coming at the start of the peak shipping season.” Experts warn the specter of widespread industrial action will stunt the U.K.’s stuttering economy and may have damaging knock-on effects for nearby shipping routes at a critical time — adding fresh pain points to already-clogged global trade arteries.

Read more at Politico

U.S. COVID – Serial Testing 

The US FDA this week recommended that people use serial testing—taking multiple COVID-19 tests over several days—to reduce the risk of a false-negative result and to help prevent people from unknowingly spreading the SARS-CoV-2 virus to others. People who test negative on an at-home antigen test should take a second or third test to confirm their result, even if they do not have symptoms.

Specifically, the FDA recommends the second test be taken 48 hours after the first test. For those without symptoms but with a known exposure, the agency goes further to say that a third test should be taken another 48 hours after the second test to be even more confident of a negative result. Repeated testing is not a new concept, but this updated recommendation demonstrates the need for continued vigilance in driving down SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While not at odds with the US CDC’s new COVID-19 guidance on quarantine and isolation, the FDA’s recommendation does appear to place more emphasis on assuring lower likelihood of person-to-person transmission following exposure.

Read more at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

NOVAVAX Seeks Emergency Use Authorization for Booster

Novavax announced August 15 that it has submitted an application to the US FDA for emergency use authorization (EUA) of its recently authorized SARS-CoV-2 vaccine as a booster dose. If authorized, the booster dose could be administered to qualifying adults who previously received full courses of Novavax or other SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The Novavax vaccine is an adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, a more traditional vaccine technology than the platform used in mRNA vaccines. Experts have hoped that this tried-and-true formulation may convince more unvaccinated people to receive their primary courses, although uptake in the US has been slow.

Based on clinical trial results, the Novavax vaccine appears to remain relatively effective against SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the Omicron and Delta variants of concern. It is less clear how effective this formulation is against BA.5 specifically, but vaccine experts have been looking forward to Novavax’s EUA booster submission to provide another tool in the fight against the wide variety of Omicron subvariants. 

Read more at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

Hudson Valley Under Drought Watch

The State Department of Environmental Conservation has issued a drought alert for all Hudson Valley counties with the exception of Westchester. That county remains at normal status due to the satisfactory storage levels. All other counties – Rockland, Putnam, Dutchess, Orange, Ulster, Sullivan, Columbia and Greene are all under a drought watch. A watch is the first of four levels of state drought advisories, which are watch, warning, emergency, and disaster. No mandatory restrictions are in place under a state drought watch.

“This year’s below normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures continue to combine to exacerbate low water levels and the environmental impacts of the dry continues and encourage residents throughout the state to monitor usage and avoid wasting water,” said Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos.

Read more Mid-Hudson News

NLRB and Justice Ink Labor Enforcement Agreement

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Antitrust Division and the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) signed a joint memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the stated objective of “promoting the free flow of commerce and fair competition in labor markets.” Both DOJ and the NLRB said they “share an interest in promoting open and competitive labor markets, including through protecting American workers from collusive or anticompetitive employer practices and unlawful interference with employees’ right to organize.”

“Protecting competition in labor markets is fundamental to the ability of workers to earn just rewards for their work, to live out the American dream, and to provide for their families,” said Jonathan Kanter, assistant attorney general of the DOJ Antitrust Division. “By cooperating more closely with our colleagues in the NLRB, we can share information on potential violations of the antitrust and labor laws, collaborate on new policies and ensure that workers are protected from collusion and unlawful employer behavior.”

Read more at Material Handling and Logistics

Fed Sees Interest Rate Hikes Continuing Until Inflation Eases Substantially, Minutes Show

Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting indicated they likely would not consider pulling back on interest rate hikes until inflation came down substantially, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday.  During the meeting policymakers expressed resolve to bring down inflation that is running well above the Fed’s desired 2% level.

They did not provide specific guidance for future increases and said they would be watching data closely before making that decision. Market pricing is for a half-point rate hike at the September meeting, though that remains a close call.  Meeting participants noted that the 2.25%-2.5% range for the federal funds rate was around the “neutral” level that is neither supportive nor restrictive on activity. Some officials said a restrictive stance likely will be appropriate, indicating more rate hikes to come.

Read more at CNBC

UK Inflation Hits Double Digits for First Time Since 1982

Consumer price inflation in Britain jumped to 10.1% in July, the highest since February 1982, making it the first major rich economy to see price growth hit double digits as surging food costs intensifieda squeeze on household budgets. The increase from June’s annual rate of 9.4% was above all economists’ forecasts in a Reuters poll and fuelled bets by investors that the Bank of England will keep on hiking interest rates quickly.

Citi economist Benjamin Nabarro said that, after the latest figures, he now expected inflation to peak above 15% early next year. “With the Bank focused on signs of more persistent inflationary pressures, we think a hawkish reaction is now all but inevitable,” he added.

Read more at Reuters

Smallsat’s Supply Chain Woes

Makers of small satellites are struggling to source components due to supply chain issues caused by the global coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. “We get surprised sometimes because there are certain things that we think should be available and they aren’t,” said AAC Clyde Space CEO Luis Gomes.

Microchips are in short supply. So are electronic components, certain thrusters, steel bearings for reaction wheels and various gases. Demand for space-related parts and materials “was exploding before COVID and before the war,” which “have exacerbated the supply issues,” said Alexandre Najjar, Euroconsult senior consultant. “Overall, the supply issues are driving cost increases and lead time. We see delays, delays, delays everywhere.”

Read more at Space News

Freight Rates Have Likely Peaked

U.S. freight rates increased 28% year over year, but declined almost 2% month over month in July, a likely signal that the U.S. market has reached peak freight rates, according to the July Cass Freight report, just as peak shipping season encompassing both back-to-school and the holidays begins.

The report comes as major retailers are set to report earnings this week. Walmart and Target have cited the need to shift inventory due to changing spending patterns and inflationary pressures on the consumer. The Cass Freight report also follows a better-than-expected inflation reports last week that signal a potential slowdown in inflation. 

Read more at CNBC

The Motor City is Moving South as EVs Change the Automotive Industry

Detroit is the city that “put the world on wheels,” but it’s towns like Spring Hill, Tennessee and others in neighboring states that are attracting the most investments from automakers in recent years, as production priorities shift to a battery-powered future with electric vehicles. 

Auto executives say they’re investing in the South for a combination of reasons: lower energy costs, available workforce and livability among them. Many southern states also come with other benefits, potentially controversial, such as all-in lower pay for workers, millions in tax breaks and a largely non-unionized workforce in many of the Republican-controlled, right-to-work states.

Read more at CNBC

American Airlines Agrees to Buy 20 Boom Supersonic Jets

American Airlines agreed to buy 20 planes from Boom Supersonic, betting on the future of an ultra-fast plane that is still years away. American put down a nonrefundable deposit on its initial 20 aircraft, known as the Overture, and has the option to purchase 40 more, the companies said Tuesday. The companies didn’t disclose additional financial details of the transaction.

Aerospace startup Boom is developing new planes capable of traveling at supersonic speeds, faster than the speed of sound. Overture is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers at Mach 1.7 over water, or 1.7 times the speed of sound—about twice as fast as commercial planes can fly today.

Read more at the WSJ

California Could Keep Nuclear Plant Running

Gov. Gavin Newsom has proposed keeping open California’s last nuclear plant for up to another 10 years as the state wrestles with how to meet power demand while it reduces its reliance on fossil fuels for energy. Plans to start closing the Diablo Canyon Power Plant over the next three years would be halted at a cost of up to $1.4 billion under draft legislation Newsom sent to legislators late Thursday, angering some of the governor’s environmentalist allies.

Diablo Canyon provides nearly a tenth of the state’s electrical power. Critics have long sought its closure for reasons that include the potential danger of a radiation leak because of earthquakes along the seismically active central coast of California. It was scheduled to close by 2025.

Read more at Politico

Germany to Keep Last Three Nuclear-Power Plants Running in Policy U-Turn

Germany plans to postpone the closure of the country’s last three nuclear power plants as it braces for a possible shortage of energy this winter after Russia throttled gas supplies to the country, said German government officials. While temporary, the move would mark the first departure from a policy initiated in the early 2000s to phase out nuclear energy in Germany and which had over time become enshrined in political consensus.

While a formal decision could be weeks off, the government believes two key conditions allowing a temporary extension of the life of the three remaining plants, now expected to close on Dec. 31, have been met: Germany is facing a likely shortage of gas and letting the reactors operate longer poses no safety concern, the officials said.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Briefing – 553

US Industrial Output Jumps in July on Solid Manufacturing Gain

A solid rebound in American manufacturing, especially vehicles, following two months of declines, help push overall industrial production up in July, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. A massive 6.6% surge in motor vehicle and parts  production was a key driver the 0.7% rise in manufacturing, which was the biggest gain since March, the data showed.  That boosted total industrial output by 0.6% last month. The gain contrasted with the massive decline in a regional survey by the New York Fed for the first week of August, which briefly spooked investors on Monday.

• Mining production rose 0.7%, for the month on “gains in coal mining and in oil and gas well drilling.”
• Utilities fell 0.8% for the month. 
• Overall production was 3.9% higher year on year.
• Manufacturing production was 3.2% higher year on year.
• Industrial capacity in use edged back over 80%, to 80.3%, after slipping below that threshold in June.

Read more at IndustryWeek

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukraine Says it Can Export 3 Million Tonnes of Grain from Ports Next Month – Reuters
• Explosions Hit Russian Ammunition Depot in Crimea – WSJ
• Russia Blames Sabotage for ‘State of Emergency’ in Crimea – USA Today
• Russia Says ‘No Need’ to Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine – Reuters
• Ukraine Is Using These Long-Range Rockets to Repel Russia – WSJ
• Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Struggling With Effective Sea Control, UK Says – Reuters
• Finland Limits Visas to Russians Amid Rush of Europe-Bound Tourists – Reuters
• Russian Withdrawal Brings More Shelling in Southern Ukrainian Town – WSJ
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Biden Signs Bill Aimed at Lowering Drug Costs, Boosting Renewable Energy

President Biden signed into law sweeping legislation to lower prescription drug prices, boost the renewable energy sector and impose new taxes on large corporations. The Democrat-backed package is one of Mr. Biden’s most consequential accomplishments since taking office, the latest in a string of legislative victories that the president’s aides hope will improve his standing heading into November’s midterm election. Republicans have criticized the measure, casting it as government overreach and arguing that it would do little to tamp down high inflation, despite its name, the Inflation Reduction Act.

The bill falls short of the ambitious vision Mr. Biden laid out during his presidential campaign and in the early months of his time in office. But it nonetheless marks a hard-fought win for the president, who less than a month ago was facing the prospect that a signature piece of his governing agenda was dead in the Senate.

Read more at the WSJ

U.S. Housing Starts Tumble in July; Building Permits Fall

U.S. homebuilding fell sharply in July, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and prices for materials, suggesting that the housing market could contract further in the third quarter.  Housing starts plunged 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.446 million units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

Data for June was revised slightly higher to a rate of 1.599 million units from the previously reported 1.559 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts declining to a rate of 1.540 million units. Permits for future homebuilding fell 1.3% to a rate of 1.674 million units.

Read more at Reuters

U.S. COVID – Why the CDC is Loosening Some of its COVID-19 Guidelines

As students and teachers across the U.S. prepare to head back to school, the CDC is relaxing its COVID-19 guidelines. It marks a significant shift in how the nation approaches the pandemic as the new guidance prioritizes keeping kids in class. But some health experts worry the agency has gone too far. Julia Raifman, who leads the COVID-19 U.S. State Policy Database, joins PBS’ Stephanie Sy to discuss.

Raifman thinks we should be looking to the CDC to set a high bar on evidence-based standards and standards that are equitable and inclusive. She says she would like to see is more of an emphasis on vaccine delivery at schools. “Just about half of children are vaccinated at this point. So, we really need increased vaccination coverage to help reduce preventable severe disease in kids,” she says. 

Read more at PBS.org

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Why has Polio Been Found in London, New York and Jerusalem, and How Dangerous is it?

Polio, a deadly disease that used to paralyze tens of thousands of children every year, is spreading in London, New York and Jerusalem for the first time in decades, spurring catch-up vaccination campaigns. There is no cure, but since a vaccine was found in the 1950s, polio is entirely preventable. Globally, the wild form of the disease has almost disappeared. There are two main forms of poliovirus. Alongside the wild-type outlined above, there are also rare cases of what is known as vaccine-derived polio.

It is this second form detected in wastewater in the British capital, London, and in New York in the United States, with one case of paralysis reported in New York state. Genetically similar virus has also been found in Jerusalem, Israel, and scientists are working to understand the link, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said. It stems from the use of an oral polio vaccine containing weakened live virus. After children are vaccinated, they shed virus in their faeces for a few weeks. In under-vaccinated communities, this can then spread and mutate back to a harmful version of the virus.

Read more a Reuters

The Hunt for a Universal Covid-19 Vaccine

The first step towards a possible universal coronavirus vaccine is likely to be a so-called “variant-proof” vaccine, which aims to protect against all current and future strains of Sars-CoV-2 and help end the worst impacts of the pandemic. With the continuing emergence of problematic variants causing repeated surges in case numbers and hospitalisations, beginning with Alpha in September 2020, to Delta, Omicron, and now BA.4 and BA.5, the need for such a vaccine remains high.

“A variant-proof vaccine could slow the transmission of Covid-19 and stopping such transmission is the only way we can move past the pandemic,” says Patrick Soon-Shiong, CEO of ImmunityBio, one of six US government-funded research groups or companies taking on the challenge. In order to do this, scientists are trialling a kaleidoscope of vaccine technologies. They range from modified, harmless viruses known as adenoviruses to ferritin nanoparticles and self-amplifying RNA, which works in a similar fashion to messenger RNA (mRNA) except it can copy itself once inside the body’s cells, meaning much smaller doses are needed.

Read more at the BBC

China Factories Ration Power as Heatwave Sends Demand Soaring

Chinese lithium hub Sichuan province will ration electricity supply to factories until Saturday, state media reported, as a heatwave sends power demands soaring and dries up reservoirs. Temperatures in the province — home to nearly 84 million people — have hovered above 40-42 degrees Celsius (104-108 degrees Fahrenheit) since last week, according to data from China’s Meteorological Administration, increasing the demand for air conditioning.  The region relies on dams to generate 80% of its electricity, but rivers in the area have dried up this summer, Beijing’s Water Resources Ministry said.

The province in China’s southwest produces half the nation’s lithium, used in batteries for electric vehicles, and its hydropower projects provide electricity to industrial hubs along the country’s east coast.  But the local government has decided to prioritize residential power supply, ordering industrial users in 19 out of 21 cities in the province to suspend production until Saturday, according to a notice issued Sunday. Several companies including aluminum producer Henan Zhongfu Industrial and fertilizer producers Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry said in stock exchange statements they were suspending production.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Cutting Tool Demand Falls Flat

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers consumed $175.9 million worth of cutting tools during June 2022 – slightly more (0.3%) than during May and 2.2% more than the June 2021 consumption total. Through six months of 2022 activity, consumption of cutting tools has totaled $1.1 billion, which is 7.9% higher than the comparable January-June 2021 figure. 

Christopher Chidzik, principal economist at AMT, suggested that raw material shortages may be a factor slowing cutting-tool consumption. “While (cutting tool) shipments appear to have hit a plateau, the value of those shipments in 2022 are at the highest monthly average since 2019. There is still some way to go before monthly orders match their pre-pandemic levels. Shortages of materials, particularly certain metals, mean there is an upper limit on the number of tools that can currently be used. Shops only need as much tooling as they have metal to work.

Read more at American Machinist

Postal Service To Hike Rates For Holiday Mailings

It will cost more to send packages this holiday season in what the United States Postal Service (USPS) is calling a “temporary price adjustment.” The planned peak-season pricing, which was approved by the governors of the Postal Service on Aug. 9, would affect prices on commercial and retail domestic competitive parcels including Priority Mail Express (PME), Priority Mail (PM), First-Class Package Service (FCPS), Parcel Select and USPS Retail Ground. International products would be unaffected. 

If it is rubber stamped by the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC), the temporary rates would go into effect on Oct. 2 and remain in place until Jan. 22, 2023. The PRC set an Aug. 25 deadline for public comments on the temporary rate adjustment. “Anyone who mails USPS packages (Priority Mail, Priority Mail Express, First-Class Package Service, Parcel Select Ground, and USPS Retail Ground) between October 2 and January 22 will have to pay more than regular pricing,” explained Stephen Kearney, executive director of the Alliance of Nonprofit Mailers. 

Read more and see the rates at the NonProfit Times

Walmart Revenue, Profit Rise as Higher Prices Lift Business

Walmart on Tuesday said that it is gaining market share in some categories such as grocery as shoppers grapple with inflation and that some Covid-19 related costs have shrunk. But higher prices have led shoppers to hold back on some purchases, prioritizing lower-margin food items, eating into profits. Walmart is also selling through a glut of inventory leading to higher discounts.

Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales, those from stores and digital channels operating for at least 12 months, rose 6.5% in the quarter ended July 29, helped by higher prices, market share gains in grocery and strong store brand product sales. Overall, revenue rose 8.4% to $152.86 billion.

Read more at YahooFinance

Home Depot Notches Record Sales, Reaffirms Guidance

Home Depot Inc. on Tuesday reported quarterly comparable sales above Wall Street estimates on steady demand for home-improvement goods from builders and handymen. Analysts have said demand from home-improvement professionals has been strong, even as do-it-yourself customers are reining in their spending, due to a healthy pipeline of remodeling work.  Around 40% to 45% of Home Depot’s customers are professionals, compared with just 20% to 25% for smaller rival Lowe’s.

Home Depot’s comparable sales rose 5.8% for the second quarter. Net sales for the largest U.S. home improvement chain climbed 6.5% to a $43.79 billion. Higher product prices drove average spending per transaction up more than 9%, even as customer transactions at its stores dropped 3%, helping the company record its highest ever quarterly sales and earnings.

Read more at Fox Business

U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows

The U.S. has identified intensifying technological competition with China as a top national-security threat. But a Commerce Department-led process that reviews U.S. tech exports to the country approves almost all requests and has overseen an increase in sales of some particularly important technologies, according to an analysis of trade data. Of the U.S.’s total $125 billion in exports to China in 2020, officials required a license for less than half a percent, Commerce Department data shows. Of that fraction, the agency approved 94%, or 2,652, applications for technology exports to China. The figures omit applications “returned without action,” meaning their outcomes were uncertain.

The result: The U.S. continues to send to China an array of semiconductors, aerospace components, artificial-intelligence technology and other items that could be used to advance Beijing’s military interests. 

Read more at the WSJ

German Manufacturers Increasingly Short of Skilled Workers

German manufacturers of machinery and equipment are increasingly short of skilled workers, a constraint that adds to the shortages in materials and intermediate goods that they are also suffering, the Ifo economic institute reported on Tuesday.  The Munich-based Ifo said its survey of some 4,000 companies showed the skills shortage extends beyond trained engineers, mechanics, and IT specialists, with a shortage of low-skilled employees emerging as well.

In the July survey, Ifo found 43.0% of manufacturing companies that it polled reported shortages of skilled workers, compared with 38.7% in April. “Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are feeling the effects of layoffs they carried out before and during the coronavirus pandemic,” said Ifo industry expert Nicolas Bunde. “Now these companies are desperately seeking suitable staff.”

Read more at Reuters

TerraPower Raised $750M For Cheaper Nuclear To Tackle Global Warming, Cut Costs

Bill Gates’ nuclear innovation company, TerraPower, announced Monday it has secured at least $750 million in new funding. The funding was co-led by Gates and SK. Gates is the founder and chairman of TerraPower. SK, one of South Korea’s largest energy providers, invested $250 million.

Nuclear energy has been undergoing a renaissance because the energy created by nuclear reactors doesn’t release the greenhouse gasses that cause climate change. There is, however, long-lasting nuclear waste that has to be stored carefully.  TerraPower is working with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, a division of General Electric, to commercialize the Natrium system. It includes a smaller reactor than the conventional ones used in the United States and a molten salt energy storage system that allows the microreactor to boost its energy output for short periods of time as needed.

Read more at CNBC

Fed Survey – Remote Work at Service Firms Equals 21 Percent of Total Hours, 7 Percent at Manufacturers 

In supplemental questions to the Empire State Survey businesses were asked to estimate the proportion of their staff working remotely at least some of the time, at three time horizons—now, before the pandemic, and a year from now. Among service sector firms, an average of 30 percent of employees were estimated to now be working remotely at least some of the time—up from 9 percent before the pandemic. Among manufacturers, in contrast, only 9 percent were said to be doing some work remotely, versus 3 percent before the pandemic. When asked how many days these employees worked remotely, the average service firm indicated 3.3 days a week, while the average manufacturer reported 2.8 days.

Combining these estimates across firms, and assuming a five-day workweek, we estimate that the share of hours worked remotely averaged 21 percent at service firms—considerably higher in finance and in professional and business services —but just 7 percent among manufacturers. Looking ahead to a year from now, the average service firm expected this percentage share to decline only moderately, to 18 percent, whereas the average manufacturer saw it holding steady at 7 percent.

Read more at the NY Fed

Daily Briefing – 552

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – Activity Declines in August

Manufacturing activity declined significantly in New York State, according to the August survey. The general business conditions index plunged forty-two points to -31.3, the second largest monthly decline in the index on record, and among the lowest levels in the survey’s history. Forty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened. Here are some of the details

• The new orders index dropped thirty-six points to -29.6.
• The shipments index plummeted nearly fifty points to -24.1. 
• The unfilled orders index fell to -12.7, indicating that unfilled orders shrank for a third consecutive month.
• The delivery times index declined to around zero the first month they have not lengthened in nearly two years.
• The inventories index fell to 6.4, signaling that inventories increased marginally.
• The index for number of employees moved down eleven points to 7.4, pointing to a small increase in employment.
• The average workweek index fell to -13.1, indicating a decline in hours worked.
• The prices paid index fell nine points to 55.5
• The prices received index was little changed at 32.7.

Looking ahead the index for future business conditions came in at 2.1, suggesting that firms were not optimistic about the six-month outlook. The indexes for future new orders and shipments were positive, but remained at low levels. Employment is expected to pick up, and delivery times are expected to decline over the next six months. Only modest increases in capital spending and technology spending are planned for the months ahead.

Read more at the NY Fed

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Russian Military Command Flees Kherson – Yahoo
• A Ukrainian Counter-Offensive in Kherson Faces Steep Odds – The Economist
• Ukraine Hits Russian Wagner Mercenary HQ in East – BBC
• Russia’s Goal in Attack on Nuclear Plant: Take the Electricity, Ukraine Says – WSJ
• ‘A Referendum is Not Right’: Occupied Kherson Looks to Uncertain Future – The Guardian
• Russia Reopens Bond Market to ‘Not Hostile’ Investors – BBC
• Russians Fail to Block HIMARS Bridge Strike—Viral Video Purportedly Shows – Newsweek
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

China Shocks With Rate Cut as Data Show ‘Alarming’ Slowdown

China’s economic slowdown deepened in July due to a worsening property slump and continued coronavirus lockdowns. Retail sales, industrial output and investment all slowed and missed economists estimates in July. The surveyed jobless rate for those aged 16-24 climbed to 19.9%, a record high and headache for the Communist Party as it gears up for a major congress in coming months that’s expected to give President Xi Jinping a precedent-defying third term in power.

China’s leadership has ruled out large-scale stimulus and vowed to continue with its stringent Covid Zero policy, requiring authorities to shut down businesses and lock down the population when major outbreaks occur. That’s dimming the growth outlook for the rest of the year, which economists are downgrading further below 4%. China’s central bank cut both one-year and seven-day lending rates by 10 basis points, a move economists said would have little impact since Covid controls have made households and businesses reluctant to borrow. (See related story on industrial production below) 

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Global Manufacturing Loses Further Momentum as Developed World Output Contracts

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.1 in July, the lowest reading since July 2020. Manufacturers continued to grapple with economic uncertainties and lingering supply chain, inflationary, workforce and geopolitical challenges. New orders decreased in July for the first time since June 2020, and output and hiring have essentially stalled. Exports continued to contract. Yet, manufacturers also expressed cautious optimism about production over the next six months, albeit with that optimism at its weakest point since May 2020.

National PMI data indicated that the stalling of the upturn was largely due to weakness in developed nations, where production volumes contracted (on average) for the second month running and to the greatest extent since June 2020. Output declined in the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK.

Read more at JP Morgan Chase

U.S. COVID – Daily Incidences Fall

The US CDC is reporting 92.3 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,030,010 deaths. The current 7-day moving average of new daily cases is down over last week, dropping to 107,077 on August 9 from 121,260 on August 2. The average daily mortality remains relatively stable, at 395 on August 9. Both new hospital admissions (-0.8% over the past week) and current hospitalizations (-2.6%) remained relatively stable over the previous week, possibly reflecting the slight decrease in daily incidence. 

Community transmission in the US is primarily driven by the Omicron BA.5 sublineage. BA.5 is now projected to account for 87.1% of sequenced specimens. The BA.4 sublineage accounts for about 6.6% of cases, while the BA.4.6 sublineage accounts for 4.8% of cases. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Global Weekly Coronavirus Deaths Have Fallen 9%, WHO Reports

The number of coronavirus deaths fell by 9% in the last week while new cases remained relatively stable, according to the latest weekly pandemic report released by the World Health Organization Wednesday. Officials warn that the WHO’s assessment of the pandemic is being compromised as countries around the world decrease COVID-19 testing and relax restrictions.

The U.N. health agency said there were more than 14,000 COVID-19 deaths in the last week and nearly 7 million new infections. The Western Pacific reported a 30% jump in cases while Africa reported a 46% drop. Cases also fell by more than 20% in the Americas and the Middle East. The number of new deaths rose by 19% in the Middle East, while dropping by more than 70% in Africa, 15% in Europe and 10% in the Americas.

Read more at the AP

COVID Immune Evasion

Immune escape, or immune evasion, is driving the COVID-19 pandemic’s extended life cycle. As the virus continues to infect humans, it will mutate and likely adapt to find its way around existing levels of vaccine-induced and natural immunity. The scientific community is not surprised that SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve to evade our ever-changing immune systems, as many other viruses do the same. But because SARS-CoV-2 is a new virus to humans, attention is focused on emerging new variants and global anxiety is heightened, wondering what variant lies around the corner. 

Currently, there are many questions about whether the Omicron subvariants BA.2.75 or BA.4.6 will cause the next wave of infections. This cycle of new variant-driven waves, each with increased immune evasion, describes the global experience with COVID-19 to date, and many assume the pattern will continue into the future. This is what allowed BA.4 and BA.5 to spread widely despite widespread recent infections with the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants. In addition to increased variant surveillance, more must be done to help further prepare for future increases in COVID-19 cases. Many appear to be placing hope in the next generation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, which are expected to protect against a wider array of viral lineages. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

U.K. Approves Covid-19 Booster Vaccine Targeted at Omicron

The U.K. became the first country to approve Moderna Inc.’s Omicron-targeting Covid-19 vaccine as a booster shot, paving the way for the variant shot to play a role in a planned fall vaccination campaign to shore up immune defenses against the virus. The so-called bivalent vaccine is directed against both the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, and the first Omicron variant, also known as BA.1, which drove large waves of infection over the winter.

Variant vaccines are likely to play a role in fall booster campaigns in the hope that they can strengthen immune protection against newer strains of the virus. The Covid-19 vaccines currently available are based on the original strain of SARS-CoV-2. The protection afforded by those shots has been blunted by the rise of successive new variants, although no variant has so far been found to totally evade immune defenses acquired from earlier vaccination or infection.

Read more at the WSJ

US Oil Production Hits 2-Year High, Inventories Grow

US crude oil and distillate inventories climbed by 5.5 million barrels and 2.2 million barrels, respectively, last week, while gasoline supplies shed 5 million barrels, the biggest decline in 10 months, the Energy Information Administration reported. Weekly domestic oil production edged up by 100,000 barrels per day to 12.2 million bpd, the highest since April 2020, while refinery capacity utilization jumped by 3.3 percentage points to 94.3%.

Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 5 million barrels in the week to August 5, compared with a modest increase of 200,000 barrels for the previous week. Gasoline production increased, averaging 10.2 million barrels daily last week, which compared with 9.3 million barrels daily a week earlier.

Read more at OilPrice.com

NYS Pension Fund Launches Review of Integrated Oil & Gas Companies

The New York State Common Retirement Fund (Fund) is evaluating 28 publicly traded integrated oil and gas companies to determine if they are prepared for the transition to a low-carbon economy, New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, the Fund’s trustee, announced today. Each company is being asked to provide information on its readiness to transition to the emerging net zero economy.

Integrated oil and gas companies – including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and others – engage in all facets of the oil and gas business, from exploration and production to transportation, refinement and retail sales. The actions come as part of DiNapoli’s comprehensive Climate Action Plan to mitigate investment risks posed by climate change and ultimately transition the Fund’s investment portfolio to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. DiNapoli also released the Fund’s second progress report regarding the implementation of the Climate Action Plan.

Read more at The Comptroller’s Website

China’s Consumer and Factory Data Miss Expectations in July

China reported data for July that came in well below expectations. Retail sales grew by 2.7% in July from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That’s well below the 5% growth forecast by a Reuters poll, and down from growth of 3.1% in  June. Within retail sales, catering, furniture and construction-related categories saw declines. Sales of autos rose by 9.7%. 

Industrial production rose by 3.8%, also missing expectations for 4.6% growth and a drop from the prior month’s 3.9% increase. Fixed asset investment for the first seven months of the year rose by 5.7% from a year ago, missing expectations for 6.2% growth. Investment into real estate fell at a faster pace in July than June, while investment into manufacturing slowed its pace of growth. Investment into infrastructure rose at a slightly faster pace in July than in June. 

Read more at CNBC

Japanese Economy Recovers Pre-pandemic Size With 2.2% Growth

Japan’s economy recovered its pre-pandemic size in the April-June quarter thanks to strong consumer spending and higher exports, but inflation may start to weigh on growth later this year. The world’s third-largest economy after the U.S. and China expanded 0.5% in the three months to June from the previous quarter and 2.2% on an annualized basis, which reflects what would happen if the pace continued for a full year.

Adjusted for inflation and seasonal factors, Japan’s economy in the latest quarter was bigger than in the final quarter of 2019, the first time it has accomplished that since the Covid-19 pandemic hit in early 2020. In the April-June period, private consumption increased 1.1% from the previous quarter as consumers returned to stores and restaurants.

Read more at the WSJ

At 75, India is Finally Ready to Join the Global Party

Today, India marks its 75th birthday, no richer relative to the rest of the world than it was at independence, but very much on the upswing. India started out as the world’s sixth-largest economy, fell to 12th by 1990, and has since staged a comeback — to sixth place. Its average income was 18 per cent of the world average at independence, but that figure fell until the early 1990s, before climbing back up — to about 18 per cent.

This distressingly V-shaped development path is a legacy of India’s original choices. In other Asian nations, the state often granted people economic freedoms first, political freedoms later, as the country grew richer. In India, the state granted a poor nation political freedom first but in a socialist economy that has never fully embraced economic freedom.

Read more at the Financial Times 

Starbucks Alleges Federal Labor Officials Improperly Handled Union Elections

The coffee company alleged in a letter sent Monday to the National Labor Relations Board that federal officials there improperly oversaw mail-in elections at Starbucks locations in Buffalo, N.Y., Seattle and the Kansas City area this year. The alleged mismanagement unfairly assisted workers supporting the Starbucks Workers United union and influenced the election results, the company said. Starbucks Workers United, a union representing chain workers, said that the company’s letter reflected an attempt to manipulate the unionization process.

In its letter Monday, Starbucks said that the NLRB made individual arrangements for baristas to cast ballots in the Kansas City area election in ways that made it easier for union organizers to turn out favorable votes. The NLRB also gave Starbucks Workers United confidential information about turnout in the Kansas election while voting was still open, allowing the union to mobilize workers who hadn’t yet voted, Starbucks alleged.

Read more at the WSJ

Homebuilder Sentiment Plunges in July as Buyers Pull Back

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a survey designed to gauge market conditions, found builder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55. That marked the largest single-month drop in the survey’s 37-year history with the exception of April 2020. Any rating above 50 on the index is still considered positive, but sentiment has now fallen 24 points since March, when mortgage rates began moving higher. 

Sentiment stood at 80 in July of last year after hitting a record high of 90 in November 2020, when the pandemic sparked a rash of homebuying among people looking for more space in less urban areas. Now, concerns about inflation and recession are among the factors taking a toll on builder sentiment. Of the index’s three components, builder sentiment about current sales conditions dropped 12 points to 64, while sales expectations for the next six months fell 11 points to 50 and sentiment about buyer traffic declined 11 points to 37. That last component is now solidly in negative territory.

Read more at CNBC

Outgoing

Daily Briefing – 551

House Passes Inflation Reduction Act, Sends it to Biden

The House on Friday passed the Inflation Reduction Act along party lines, rounding out a series of recent wins for President Joe Biden.  The House voted 220-207, with no Republicans joining Democrats in supporting the act. It now heads to Biden, who is expected to sign it into law next week after months of negotiations between moderate and progressive Democrats, who ultimately reached an agreement late last month.

“This legislation is historic, it’s transformative and really a cause for celebration,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a news conference ahead of the vote.  House Republicans criticized the Inflation Reduction Act as overreaching and said the billions of dollars in spending wouldn’t solve inflation. “Today the majority jams through another spending spree,” House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy said in his nearly 50-minute speech on the floor ahead of the vote. “I believe the largest tone-deaf bill we’ve seen in this chamber in 230 years.

• Read more at USA Today
• What’s in the Act – YahooFinance

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Russia Loses 19 Tanks and Armored Vehicles in a Single Day: Ukraine –  Newsweek
• Ukraine Readies Plans to Evacuate Civilians Amid Fighting Near Nuclear Plant – WSJ
• Zelensky Warns Russian Soldiers at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant – BBC
• Moscow Warns of End to Russia-U.S. Relations if Assets Seized, TASS Reports – Reuters
• ‘The West Doesn’t Want Russians Partying in the Streets of Europe’: Calls Grow for a Visa Ban – The Guardian
• Dirty Dozen- From Prison Cells to Special Units: Russia’s New Recruits – Fox News
• Europe Eyes Musk’s SpaceX to Bridge Launch Gap Left by Russia Tensions – Reuters
• Official: Russia Ready for ‘Concrete Steps’ Toward Prisoner Swap Including Brittney Griner – USA Today
• Gazprom has Increased Gas Supply to Hungary, Says Official – The Guardian 
• Ukraine Strikes Key Bridge in Russian-Held Territory – WSJ
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Manufacturing Labor Productivity Rose in Q2

Manufacturing labor productivity rose 5.5% at the annual rate in Q2, coming back strongly after three straight months of decline, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sector output increased 4.3%, building on the 3.9% gain in Q1,  while the number of hours worked declined 1.1%, but hourly compensation increased 4.9%. This quarter’s data reflect “resilient growth in demand for goods despite ongoing challenges with supply chain, workforce, inflationary and geopolitical issues,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

In Durable Goods:

• labor productivity for durable goods increased 6.1% in Q2, and output rose 6.0%.
• The number of hours worked declined 0.1%, but hourly compensation rose 5.3%.
• Unit labor costs decreased 0.7%.

In nondurable goods:

• Labor productivity for nondurable goods increased 5.4%, and output increased 2.6%.
• The number of hours worked dipped 2.6%, and hourly compensation increased 4.0%.
• Unit labor costs decreased 1.3%.

Read more at the BLS

U.S. Chamber Endorses Marc Molinaro for New York’s 19th Congressional District – Special Election is August 23^rd.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce yesterday announced its endorsement of Marc Molinaro (R) to represent New York’s Nineteenth Congressional District. The Chamber endorses pro-business candidates for federal office who will vigorously support public policy that will advance economic growth, support jobs, and promote fiscal responsibility.

“Marc Molinaro has a proven record of leading and delivering for residents of the Hudson Valley,” said U.S. Chamber of Commerce Eastern Region Director Nick Vaugh. “Marc has demonstrated a commitment to supporting free enterprise and the American business community to improve New York and our nation. He will lead the charge for pro-growth solutions in Congress, and that has earned him the support of the U.S. Chamber. We are proud to endorse Marc Molinaro and look forward to partnering with him in the next Congress.”  

Read more at the US Chamber of Commerce

U.S. COVID – CDC Ends Recommendations for Social Distancing and Quarantine for Covid-19 Control, no Longer Recommends Test-to-Stay in Schools

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the nation should move away from restrictive measures such as quarantines and social distancing and focus on reducing severe disease from Covid-19. In new guidelines released Thursday, the agency no longer recommends staying at least 6 feet away from other people to reduce the risk of exposure — a shift from guidance that had been in place since the early days of the pandemic. The new guidance also does not advise quarantining people who’ve been exposed to Covid-19 but are not infected.

The shift is a sign of how much has changed since the beginning of the pandemic more than two years ago. Nearly the entire US population has at least some immunity through vaccination, previous infection or, in some cases, both. “The current conditions of this pandemic are very different from those of the last two years,” Greta Massetti, who leads the Field Epidemiology and Prevention Branch at the CDC, said Thursday.

Read more at CNN

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 12. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,214

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,447
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 239

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 7.08%    –   27.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 5.71%   –   26.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

COVID Cases Drop 9% Globally Last Week, Deaths Stable

New coronavirus cases fell 9% globally last week while deaths remained stable, according to the latest weekly assessment of the pandemic released Wednesday by the World Health Organization. The U.N. health agency said there were 6.5 million cases reported last week with more than 14,000 deaths. WHO said the number of new cases fell 35% in Europe but increased about 20% in the Western Pacific and 5% in Africa. Deaths rose 44% in the Western Pacific and 26% in the Middle East, while falling about a quarter in Europe.

WHO has previously warned that recent surveillance of COVID-19 has been severely compromised by countries reducing their testing, reporting and other coronavirus alert systems. The agency has said COVID-19 figures are likely being significantly underestimated, which could make it more difficult to spot any worrisome new variants.

Read more at the AP

U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Slightly to New 2022 High

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, increased to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 last week from a revised 248,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The weekly number has been on an upward trend since reaching a 50-year low in March.

Last week’s total was slightly above the prior 2022 peak set in July of 261,000 and was above the 2019 weekly average of 218,000. The four-week moving average for initial claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose by 4,500 to 252,000.  Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving government unemployment payments, increased by 8,000 to 1.43 million in the week ended July 30. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag.

Read more at the WSJ

New York’s Climate and Energy Goals Would Get Jolt With Federal “Inflation Reduction Act”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told THE CITY in an interview that the legislation could be a boon for New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which was signed into law three years ago. The state calls the CLCPA one of “the most ambitious climate laws in the world.” It sets a goal for a carbon neutral economy across the state by 2050, mainly through the expanded use of clean energy sources and extensive electrification. Reaching the CLCPA’s target will cost roughly $300 billion, according to estimates by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, or NYSERDA, though other estimates put that cost at more than twice that amount. 

The IRA includes a slew of tax credits, grants, rebates and financing opportunities to encourage individuals, businesses and local governments to transition to greener energy and greater efficiency. “States that are prepared, that are well positioned, are going to be able to take advantage of this bill better than others,” said Justin Gundlach, a senior attorney at NYU School of Law’s Institute for Policy Integrity. “New York is very, very well positioned to do that.”

• Read more at The City
• The Empire Center’s Take

Yellen Says IRS Will Not to Use New Funding to Increase Middle-Class Audits 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen directed IRS officials not to use new funding secured for the agency in Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act to increase audits on households making under $400,000 annually. In a letter to IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig, Yellen reaffirmed a commitment “that audit rates will not rise relative to recent years for households making under $400,000 annually,” which she described as a “guiding precept of the planning” for the agency. 

• Democrats set their sights  last week on approving roughly $80 billion in funding to strengthen the office, which has seen its funding and staffing decline for roughly a decade.
• The message is in response to warnings from GOP lawmakers that the agency would hire tens of thousands more IRS agents and increase audits that would impact those below the $400,000 threshold.
• In her letter, Yellen specifically directed that no additional resources, including any new personnel or auditors that are hired as part of the proposed funding, should be “used to increase the share of small business or households below the $400,000 threshold that are audited relative to historical levels.”
• Yellen also stressed the IRS’s “enforcement resources will focus on high-end noncompliance,” as Democrats say the proposed funding is aimed at going after wealthy tax cheats.

Read more at The Hill

UK Economy Shrinks as Outlook on Recession Darkens

The economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
This was partly due to Covid schemes like Test and Trace ending, retail sales falling and the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee bank holiday in June, it said. The Bank of England has forecast the UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar.

Despite shrinking between April and June, the UK economy avoided recession because gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the first three months of this year. Up until now most economists – and the Bank of England – did not expect a recession to begin until the final three months of 2022. Many expected a small rebound in economic growth between July and September. But the latest figures from the ONS have prompted some experts to warn that recession could come sooner than they had initially thought.

Read more at the BBC

Crisis on the Rhine

Weeks of dry weather have weighed on Europe’s major waterway, with shallow depths preventing barges from loading their full volumes. The effects could ripple through the continent for months, just as the region is on the brink of recession from the war in Ukraine and untamed inflation. Economists estimate the Rhine disruption could knock half a percentage point off Germany’s growth this year, adding to the significant price pressures seen across many Western European countries.

“We’re expecting this situation to continue towards the end of the year,” noted Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil market division, adding that conditions could be more precarious for landlocked countries in central and eastern Europe that normally get energy deliveries via the Rhine.   Chemical maker BASF hasn’t ruled out production cuts as it placed orders for shallow-water barges and uses more rail to transport goods. Crisis teams at Thyssenkrupp are also meeting daily as the steelmaker uses ships with lower drafts to keep up supplies.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

At Ford, Quality Is Now Problem 1

Josh Halliburton  joined Ford F Motor Co. in January to help improve its shaky quality record. Within months it was clear how big a challenge he faced. The 46-year-old executive comes from auto research firm J.D. Power, where he advised companies on production quality, and his strategy at Ford is to improve how the company identifies problems. He is installing video cameras to catch flaws while products are being built, adding more monitoring of social media to find complaints flagged by customers and pressing workers to raise their hands early about design and production challenges.

The task of this new quality czar is central to the company’s larger ambition to challenge Tesla Inc. and other rivals for electric-vehicle superiority in the years ahead. The billions of dollars Ford spends each year on warranty repairs and recalls make it more difficult to reach its goal of shaving $3 billion in annual costs by 2026 and free up spending for new electric-vehicle models, battery plants and manufacturing plants. Last year Ford set aside more than $4 billion for warranty costs, up 76% from five years earlier. Its total warranty expenses increased about 17% from 2016 to 2021.

Read more at the WSJ

Filling Manufacturing Jobs with Workers Who are Autistic

With the right training, those on the autism spectrum can find jobs in manufacturing. With that in mind, the Uniquely Abled Academy is offering free training in Meadville, Pennsylvania. The program is being offered to those in the community who are level 1 autism disorder (often called Asperger’s syndrome). “This is a population that is underserved,” said Robert Zaruta, Erie-based Northwest Industrial Resource Center. “And the population is greater than the number of academy positions available this fall — that’s why we want to run multiple classes each year and expand the program.”

In the free, 16-week program participants will receive 405 hours of training as computer-numerical control operators. To ensure success students will also be taught soft skills around the areas of communication and workplace culture. And they are paired with a job coach who helps them transition to their new career. Upon graduation students will be placed in precision machining jobs.

Read more at the Uniquely Abled Project

U.S. Housing Affordability in June Was the Worst Since 1989

The National Association of Realtors’ housing-affordability index, which factors in family incomes, mortgage rates and the sales price for existing single-family homes, fell to 98.5 in June, the association said Friday. That marked the lowest level since June 1989, when the index stood at 98.3. Conditions have eased a bit in recent weeks. Mortgage rates hit a 13-year high in June but have ticked lower since. Some sidelined buyers re-entered the market in July and August, according to real-estate agents.

Existing-home sales have declined for five straight months. Worsening affordability has been a big factor, pricing more buyers out of the market. But even with fewer transactions, prices continue to rise strongly from a year ago because the number of homes for sale around the U.S. remains below historical levels.

Read more at the WSJ

Boeing Delivers First Dreamliner 787 in More Than a Year

Boeing Co’s (BA.N) 787 Dreamliner has returned to the world market for newly delivered aircraft at a time when demand for wide-body jetliners is finally stirring to life after a prolonged slump. The U.S. planemaker delivered its first Dreamliner since May 2021 on Wednesday, in a significant milestone for the manufacturer after production problems with its wide-body jet. read more

Boeing must now wade through painstaking regulatory checks to get further 787s delivered while chipping away at a backlog of about 120 stored planes outside its plants. International traffic has accelerated since the start of the year, though the International Air Transport Association says it has a long way to run before regaining pre-pandemic levels.

Read more at Reuters

Outgoing Whole Foods CEO Says Young People ‘Don’t Seem Like They Want to Work’ and Thinks ‘Socialists are Taking Over’

If you ask Whole Foods’ outgoing CEO about socialism and young workers, he says there’s a revolution happening, and it’s not with pitchforks but with words. Whole Foods cofounder John Mackey has a history of complex views that he’s shared over time. What Mackey likes: a vegan diet and free-market and libertarian ideals. What he doesn’t like as much: processed and frozen foods, unions, and being silenced. 

An Ayn Rand lover who once cut his own salary to $1, Mackey’s dichotomy earned him the title of a “right-wing hippie” in a 2010 New Yorker profile. As a longtime fan of capitalism, he continued his crusade against socialism in the latest podcast from Reason, the long-running libertarian magazine. “Socialists are taking over,” he said on the podcast. “They’re marching through the institutions. They’re taking everything over. They’re taking over education. It looks like they’ve taken over a lot of corporations. It looks like they’ve taken over the military, and it’s just continuing.” 

Read more at Fortune

Daily Briefing – 550 From London

Senate Passes Democrats’ Climate, Healthcare and Tax Bill

The Senate passed a bill spending hundreds of billions of dollars on climate and healthcare programs while raising taxes on large, profitable companies, as Democrats unified around elements of President Biden’s agenda after a year of frustrated efforts to advance a broader package.

The legislation, which passed the Senate 51-50 on Sunday with a tiebreaking vote by Vice President Kamala Harris, offers tax incentives for reducing carbon emissions, seeks to allow Medicare to negotiate the price of some prescription drugs, allots roughly $80 billion to the Internal Revenue Service and extends subsidies for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act.  The package now heads to House of Representatives where it is expected to pass, then on to President Biden who supports the legislation.

• Read more at the Politico
• See What’s in the Bill (Full Text)

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• North Korea offering 100,000 troops to help defeat Ukraine, Russian state media says – Yahoo
• Four more grain ships leave Ukraine as hopes grow for export stability – BBC
• Russia readies for southern offensive as alarm raised over shelling of nuclear plant – Guardian
• Amnesty regrets ‘distress’ caused by report rebuking Ukraine – Reuters
• Putin massing more Russian forces for ‘new assault’ on southern Ukraine, UK warns – The Independent
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

US Job Growth Spikes, Manufacturing Hits its Highest Levels Since 2019 

U.S. job growth surged in July, as the economy added a surprising 528,000 positions, defying all expectations of a slowdown, according to official data Friday. Meanwhile, wages jumped—with average hourly earnings up 15 cents over June—which will surely add to inflation concerns, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates aggressively to cool the economy amid the highest price gains in more than 40 years.

In manufacturing, employment increased by 30,000 in July. Durable goods companies added 21,000 jobs with gains in semiconductors and electronic components and miscellaneous durable goods. With 12.9 million people employed in manufacturing, the industry hit its highest rate since August 2019  Employment in manufacturing is 41,000 above its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Despite that strong manufacturing hiring, there are signs that companies still can’t find enough people. Overtime increased by slightly to 3.3 hours per week in the sector.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Jobs Report to Keep Fed on Aggressive Tightening Path

The July jobs report defied expectations of an economic slowdown and will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to dial back the pace of rate increases at its meeting next month. The Fed raised rates by 0.75 percentage point at its meeting last week, following a similar increase in June, which was the largest since 1994. “Another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting,” but the decision “will depend on the data we get between now and then,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 27 news conference.

Some Fed officials have suggested the central bank might raise rates by a half percentage point in September, and financial market participants have run with the idea that the central bank would soon slow its rate rises. But that depends crucially on a slowdown in economic activity, especially hiring, and Friday’s report offered no such signal. Since last week’s Fed meeting, labor market data suggests wages have been even stronger than earlier reported, while hiring has been brisk.

Read more at the WSJ

U.S. COVID – Slow Decline in Cases

The US CDC is reporting 91.5 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,026,723 deaths. The current 7-day moving average of new daily cases is down slightly over last week, dropping to 119,034 on August 2. The average daily mortality remains relatively stable, at 387 on August 2. Both new hospital admissions (-1.7% over the past week) and current hospitalizations (-0.4%) remained relatively stable over the previous week, possibly reflecting the slight decrease in daily incidence. 

Community transmission in the US is primarily driven by the Omicron BA.5 sublineage. BA.5 is now projected to account for 85.5% of sequenced specimens. The BA.4 sublineage accounts for about 7.7% of cases, while the newly delineated BA.4.6 accounts for 4.1% of cases and appears to represent a growing proportion of BA.4 sublineages. Together, BA.2.12.1 and BA.2 now account for only about 2.7% of cases. According to the data, Omicron variants represent all new cases in the US.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

The Governor updated COVID data through August 5th. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 20
• Total Reported to CDC: 73,028

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,550
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 224

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 8.59%    –   31.54 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 9.15%   –   30.68 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

COVID Cases Drop 9% Globally Last Week, Deaths Stable

New coronavirus cases fell 9% globally last week while deaths remained stable, according to the latest weekly assessment of the pandemic released Wednesday by the World Health Organization. The U.N. health agency said there were 6.5 million cases reported last week with more than 14,000 deaths. WHO said the number of new cases fell 35% in Europe but increased about 20% in the Western Pacific and 5% in Africa. Deaths rose 44% in the Western Pacific and 26% in the Middle East, while falling about a quarter in Europe.

WHO has previously warned that recent surveillance of COVID-19 has been severely compromised by countries reducing their testing, reporting and other coronavirus alert systems. The agency has said COVID-19 figures are likely being significantly underestimated, which could make it more difficult to spot any worrisome new variants.

Read more at the AP

Daily Briefing – 549

GDP Fell at 0.9% Annual Rate in Second Quarter

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.9% annual rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That marks a second straight quarterly decline in gross domestic product–a common definition of recession. Inflation hit a fresh four-decade high during the second quarter, hammering consumer sentiment and eroding Americans’ purchasing power. The Federal Reserve responded by aggressively raising interest rates, which in turn cooled the housing market, reducing brokers’ commissions and denting residential investment.

Economists say idiosyncratic factors weighed on the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, like the inventory buildup and swings in exports and imports. A shift in spending away from goods back toward services, and rising prices cutting into people’s buying power, left many companies with stockpiles of products they are now discounting to unload.

Read more at the WSJ

Manchin and Schumer Announce Deal for Energy and Health Care Bill

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin on Wednesday announced a deal on an energy and health care bill, representing a breakthrough after more than a year of negotiations that have collapsed time and again. The deal is a major reversal for Manchin, and the health and climate bill stands a serious chance of becoming law as soon as August — assuming Democrats can pass the bill in the House and that it passes muster with the Senate parliamentarian to allow it to be approved along straight party lines in the budget process.

While many details have not been disclosed, the measure would invest $369 billion into energy and climate change programs, with the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030, according to a one-page fact sheet. For the first time, Medicare would be empowered to negotiate the prices of certain medications, and it would cap out-of-pocket costs at $2,000 for those enrolled in Medicare drug plans. It would also extend expiring enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act coverage for three years.

Read more at CNN

.75 – Fed Raises Key Interest Rate as Expected

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday, with “ongoing increases” in borrowing costs still ahead despite evidence of a slowing economy. “Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures,” the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said as it lifted the policy rate to a range of between 2.25% and 2.50% in a unanimous vote.

The FOMC added that it remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. But while jobs gains have remained “robust,” officials noted in the new policy statement that “recent indicators of spending and production have softened,” a nod to the fact that the aggressive rate hikes they have put in place since March are beginning to bite.

Read more at Reuters

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Russia Cuts Gas Flows Further as Europe Makes Savings Plea – Reuters
• U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia – WSJ
• Ukrainian Armed Forces Confirm that Kherson Bridge Destroyed in High-Precision Strike – YahooNews
• Gas Prices Soar as Russia Cuts German Supply – BBC
• Ukraine to Pursue War-Crimes Charges Against leaders of Western Banks Over Russia Financing – Business Insider
• EU to Cut Russian Gas Use – YahooNews
• Russia Says it is Leaving the International Space Station Program. What Does That Mean? – USA Today
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

GDP: US Economy Seen Narrowly Averting Back-to-Back Contractions

We’ll know for sure tomorrow but the US economy may have eked out modest growth in the second quarter, skirting back-to-back quarterly contractions, but rising at a tepid enough pace to feed concerns of an eventual downturn. Economists expect gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.4% in the April-June period, which on the surface would be an improvement after the 1.6% drop in the first quarter. 

Data released Wednesday prompted a few economists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., to raise their second-quarter GDP forecasts. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed in June by more than expected and inventories at retailers and wholesalers both solidly increased. Core capital goods shipments also increased. However, cooler business investment, a weaker housing market and a slower pace of inventory growth are also seen taking a bite out of second-quarter GDP.

Read more at Financial Advisor

US Durable Goods Orders Post Surprise Gain On Defense Aircraft

Bookings for durable goods increased 1.9% in June after a 0.8% advance a month earlier. However, the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, rose 0.5% for a second month. Shipments also advanced. Orders increased in June for motor vehicles, computers and electronic products, and fabricated metals. Bookings for primary metals, machinery and communications equipment fell.

Separate data out Wednesday showed the US merchandise trade deficit narrowed for a third month in June, reflecting both an increase in exports and a drop in imports. The report also showed firm advances in inventories at retailers and wholesalers. Core capital goods shipments, increased 0.7% in June after a 1% surge a month earlier. The pickup in orders suggests that firms are continuing to invest despite rising borrowing costs and greater economic uncertainty. T

Read more at Financial Advisor

U.S. COVID – BA.5’s Effect on Hospital Admissions Still Unclear, CDC Models Show

CDC predictions for how hospitalizations and deaths will change due to BA.5 are uncertain. A forecast of new hospitalizations from 16 modeling groups predicted that the increase could range from 3,100-13,800 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day by August 12.

• Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 9.9 percent in the next two weeks, a lower rate of increase than projected last week, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 121,869.3 cases on July 22 to 133,921 by Aug. 5.
• COVID-19 deaths are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC’s ensemble forecast from 17 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,800 to 5,600 new deaths likely reported in the week ending Aug. 13, which translates to a daily total of 257.1 to 800 deaths.

Read more at Becker Hospital Review

NYS COVID Update 

Editor’s Note:  Given the small changes in vaccinations we will no longer track this information in the briefing.  Instead we will  provide a link to the NYS Vaccination Tracker below)

The Governor updated COVID data through July 22. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 15
• Total Reported to CDC: 72.569

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,629
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 251

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 9.22%    –   36.22 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 9.85%   –   32.01 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

How Long is COVID Infectious? What Scientists Know so Far

(Nature) When the US CDC halved its recommended isolation time for people with COVID-19 to five days back in December, it said that the change was motivated by science. Specifically, the CDC said that most SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of the illness, in the one to two days before the onset of symptoms and for two to three days after.

Many scientists disputed that decision then and they continue to do so. Such dissent is bolstered by a series of studies confirming that many people with COVID-19 remain infectious well into the second week after they first experience symptoms. Reductions in the length of the recommended isolation period — now common around the world — are driven by politics, they say, rather than any reassuring new data.

Read more at Nature

EEOC Again Revises Workplace Testing Guidance

As the pandemic continues to evolve, so does the EEOC’s guidance. On July 12, 2022, the EEOC once again updated its COVID-19 guidance: What You Should Know About COVID-19 and the ADA, the Rehabilitation Act, and Other EEO Laws to reflect the pandemic’s changing state. The updated guidance follows CDC’s June 10, 2022 statements regarding the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The EEOC also updated guidance about screening for COVID-19 generally, reminding employers that all disability-related inquiries and medical exams used for screening employees for COVID-19, must be “job related and consistent with business necessity.” 

Read the Q&A from Jackson Lewis

A Housing Recession is the First Step to a Fed-Induced Recession

Historically speaking, the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighting playbook always starts with housing. It goes like this. The central bank begins by applying upward pressure on mortgage rates. Not long afterwards, home sales sink and existing home inventory spikes. Then homebuilders begin to cut back. That causes demand for both commodities (like lumber and steel) and durable goods (like windows and refrigerators) to fall. Those economic contractions then quickly spread throughout the rest of the economy and, in theory, help to rein in runaway inflation.

While a housing recession is good news for the inflation fight, it also means a National Bureau of Economic Research declared recession could be drawing closer. One thing stands in the way: Homebuilding. On a year-over-year basis sales of new single-family homes is down 17.4% while single-family housing starts are down 15.7%. That said, homebuilders remain busy. A combination of supply chain constraints and an eagerness to cash in on the pandemic housing boom led homebuilders to ramp up production massively over the past year. 

Read more at Fortune

Xi, Biden to Speak as Possible Pelosi Taiwan Visit, Tariff Changes Loom

President Biden is expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week in a bid to manage rising tensions over Taiwan, trade and a deadlocked bilateral diplomatic agenda. 

Senior administration officials will pitch the call as a deliverable-free routine follow-up to a series of communications between Biden and Xi — they last spoke in March and had a virtual meeting in November — that senior administration officials say are to erect “guardrails” designed to ensure competition “doesn’t lead to conflict.” But Biden’s main objective will be to ensure the latest eruption of Chinese rage over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan doesn’t derail discussions for a long-awaited in-person meeting between Biden and Xi in November.

Read more at Politico

Is Remote Hiring Leading to More Candidate Fraud?

The sea of unfilled jobs on are forcing employers today to do as much as they can to ensure that they not only retain their best employees but also make the right decisions when hiring. That pressure could mean recruiters and HR professionals are making costly mistakes, according to Lindsey Zuloaga, chief data scientist at HireVue. One such risk arises when job candidates are less than honest in the application process—from exaggerated or blatantly fake job histories to fraudulent references to candidates who enlist assistance with assessments. 

“Technology and remote work have changed the opportunities available for cheating in the hiring funnel,” Zuloaga says. “We’ve all heard horror stories of the wrong person showing up on day one after their camera stayed off for the interview process. Like any type of fraud, the cheaters continue to invent new techniques, and the victims of fraud must always keep up,” she adds.

Read more at HR Executive

CLCPA Renewable Energy Targets can be met only at Great Cost, Report Shows

In order to meet the clean energy goals laid out in the CLCPA, the state would have to spend currently-incalculable sums to overbuild intermittent energy sources according to a new Empire Center report.  Wind and solar have incredibly low capacity factors in New York — 44 percent and 12 percent, respectively. This means that, for example, it would take more than seven gigawatts of nameplate solar capacity to equal the production of a one-gigawatt nuclear or natural gas plant. 

“The goal is inexpensive, reliable and non-polluting electricity production. But we can’t have all three. The practical options are either inexpensive and reliable or reliable and non-polluting,” said James Hanley, author of the paper and senior policy analyst at the Empire Center. “Energy production that meets all three of these demands is not — for the foreseeable future — an available option.” 

Read more at the Empire Center

NEPA Revisions Will Further Slow Energy Permitting

The Biden administration’s new environmental permitting rules will harm small businesses, increase taxpayer costs and further tie up U.S. courts, according to the NAM.  In April, the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) issued the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Implementing Regulations Revisions, a rule that turns back some of the changes to the nation’s permitting laws. 

Earlier this month, Republican Sens. Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Kevin Kramer of North Dakota introduced a resolution of disapproval to strike down the new permitting regulations.  The CEQ’s policy of requiring agencies to assess the effects (including climate-related ones) of their projects was already creating delays. The new regulations will only further jeopardize and slow the pace of much-needed energy projects. “Modern permitting reforms and environmental protection are not mutually exclusive—we can grow our economy, strengthen our domestic manufacturing and maintain the highest environmental stewardship while updating an archaic permitting process that benefits both the public and private sector. It is long past due for Washington policymakers to seize this opportunity, and every year we kick the can means the permitting process becomes even more burdensome,” NAM Senior Director of Energy & Resources Policy Nile Elam said.

Read more at Bloomberg Law

How does the EU plan to cut gas usage by 15% this winter?

From next month until the end of March 2023, all EU member states will strive for a voluntary 15% reduction in gas consumption. In the event of a major supply shock – a complete shutdown of Russian gas – the EU may declare an emergency and make the target mandatory with immediate effect.  But almost any member state, especially those with little connection to the gas network, or those facing an electricity supply shock, would be entitled to apply for an opt-out.

Industrial users will feel the pinch first; factories could be given targets to reduce heating and cooling. Some could be spared, such as manufacturers of critical goods, or plants that are difficult to restart after switching off energy. While consumers are protected, they are expected to do their bit. EU authorities are urging governments to launch campaigns to encourage people to switch off lights and turn down thermostats and air conditioning.

Read more at The Guardian

Passenger Train Service to Stewart Back on the Radar

About a dozen years ago, officials floated the idea of building a spur off the West of Hudson Metro-North Railroad in Salisbury Mills directly into New York Stewart International Airport. That never got any traction because of the projected millions of dollars it would cost.

It may be back on track as it is being discussed by the MTA, said Harry Porr, deputy Orange County executive, who represents the county on the Stewart Airport Commission and the MTA Board. It is believed that a rail link from the airport to New York City would be a major asset for Stewart.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

Boeing Profit Falls as Plane Maker Awaits Approval to Deliver Dreamliners

The company’s second-quarter results fell short of analysts estimates. Weakness in its defense unit dragged down results, but was partly offset by strength in its commercial airplane unit. Aircraft deliveries rose to 121 in the second quarter from 79 a year ago, while commercial aircraft revenue climbed 3% to more than $6.2 billion.

Production of the 737 MAX has reached 31 planes a month, up from 16 a year ago, as it deals with supply-chain challenges such as engine shortages that are also affecting rival Airbus SE. Executives have said they expect Boeing will soon receive regulatory approval to resume deliveries of its wide-body 787 Dreamliner. A series of production issues has kept the plane maker from handing over that jet to customers for much of the last two years, leaving it with more than $25 billion of the aircraft in inventory.

Read more at the WSJ

Airbus Trims Delivery Target, Slows Jet Output Hike

Airbus shaved its annual jet delivery forecast and slowed a planned increase in factory production while sticking to core financial goals on Wednesday, after disruption in the global supply chain put a brake on second-quarter profits. The plane maker lowered its 2022 delivery goal to 700 jets from 720 and said it would reach interim production of 65 narrow-body jets a month in early 2024 instead of summer 2023, on its way to an unchanged target of 75 a month in 2025.

The move comes after the world’s largest plane maker recorded flat deliveries for the first half as delayed engine deliveries compounded parts shortages and problems in hiring back staff to aerospace after lay-offs during the pandemic. Even so, Airbus reaffirmed its 2022 profit and cashflow forecasts after reporting second-quarter adjusted operating profit of 1.382 billion euros, down 31%, on revenues which fell 10% to 12.810 billion.

Read more at Reuters

Daily Briefing – 548

The IMF Warns that a Global Recession Could Soon be at Hand

In an update of the World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. said economic prospects had darkened significantly in recent months as war in Ukraine, inflation and a resurgent pandemic inflicted pain on every continent. If the thicket of threats continues to intensify, the world economy faces one of its weakest years since 1970, a period of intense stagflation across the globe.

The I.M.F. downgraded its global growth forecasts from its April projections, predicting that output will fall to 3.2 percent in 2022, from 6.1 percent last year. With central banks around the world raising interest rates to tame inflation, growth is expected to slow further next year. Inflation is also rising more rapidly and broadly than the I.M.F. anticipated earlier this year. It now expects prices to rise 6.6 percent in rich countries and 9.5 percent in emerging markets and developing economies.

Read more at the NY Times

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Russia Says it Wants to End Ukraine’s `Unacceptable Regime’ – AP
• More HIMARS, ‘Phoenix Ghost’ Drones Bound for Ukraine – DOD News
• Medic in Heels Commands Respect on Ukraine’s Front Lines – Yahoo News
• ‘He Simply Cannot be Trusted:’ World Leaders Slam Putin’s Attack on Odesa Following Sea Corridor Deal – CNBC
• Germany’s Gepard Tanks Finally Reach Ukraine – WSJ
• The Myth of Putin as World Energy Czar is Running Out of Gas – Fortune
• Ukraine Faces Hurdles Before Grain Exports Can Start Under New Deal with Russia, Expert Says – USNI News
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Fed Set to Impose Another Big Rate Hike to Fight Inflation

Conflicting signs about the health of the U.S. economy have thrust the Federal Reserve into a difficult spot. With inflation raging at a four-decade high, the job market strong and consumer spending still solid, the Fed is under pressure to raise interest rates aggressively. But other signs suggest the economy is slowing and might even have shrunk in the first half of the year. 

When it ends its latest policy meeting Wednesday, the Fed is expected to impose a second consecutive three-quarter-point hike, elevating its key rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. It will be its fourth rate hike since March, when it announced a quarter-point increase. Since then, with inflation setting new four-decade highs, the central bank has tightened credit ever more aggressively.  Higher borrowing rates can reduce spending. But they cannot reverse other factors, notably the global shortages of food, energy, factory parts and other items, which have been worsened by Russia’s war against Ukraine and COVID-19-related shutdowns in China.

Read more at AP

Senate Agenda on Hold as Clock Winds Down and Key Senators Cope with COVID and Cancelled Flights

Time is not on the side of Senate Democrats as their lengthy pre-August agenda outweighs the dwindling time remaining before senators break for recess and COVID-19 continues to toss a wrench in proceedings. The weather also did not cooperat as Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) was forced to postpone Monday’s vote to end debate on the CHIPS legislation after a number of lawmakers had their flights to Washington delayed or canceled. That means final passage on the bill will not take place until Wednesday at the earliest. 

The upper chamber has only nine legislative days left on the calendar before recess kicks off, forcing leaders to prioritize a number of items and leave others on the shelf until after Labor Day. Topping the to-do list this week is passing the long-delayed $280 billion bill to boost funding of the domestic production of computer chips, also known as the CHIPS Act.

Read more at The Hill

U.S. COVID – Boosters for People Under 50 on Hold Amid drive to Speed Up New Vaccine

Booster shots of the coronavirus vaccine for people younger than 50 are on hold as the Biden administration tries to accelerate a fall vaccination campaign using reformulated shots that target the now-dominant omicron subvariants, according to federal health officials.

Officials are hoping vaccine makers – Moderna and Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech – are able to make the updated shots available as soon as early to mid-September instead of later in the fall, said three officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the issue.

Read more at YahooNews

NYS COVID Update 

Editor’s Note:  Given the small changes in vaccinations we will no longer track this information in the briefing.  Instead we will  provide a link to the NYS Vaccination Tracker below)

The Governor updated COVID data through July 22. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 15
• Total Reported to CDC: 72.569

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,629
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 251

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 9.22%    –   36.22 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 9.85%   –   32.01 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

White House to Launch Effort to Develop Next Generation of Covid Vaccines

The Biden administration is preparing an initiative to develop a next generation of Covid-19 immunizations. To kick off the effort, the White House is gathering key federal officials, top scientists, and pharmaceutical executives including representatives of Pfizer and Moderna for a Tuesday “summit” to discuss the new technologies and lay out a road map for developing them.

One strategy would focus on the development of nasal vaccines that could create antibodies at the mucosal surfaces in the nose and elsewhere where viruses enter the body, thereby preventing infection and transmission. A second strategy would aim to create vaccine antigens that would work against a broader array of coronavirus strains, thereby providing more durable immunity. It may or may not be possible to combine the two strategies.

Read more at STAT News

Polio in Rockland Wastewater as Early as June, Samples Show

New testing has found that the polio virus had infected at least one Rockland County resident and was present in wastewater sampled at a sewage treatment plant as early as June, the county’s health commissioner said Monday. The detective work on past wastewater samples began after the state and county reported a case of polio had occurred in Rockland County, the first in the U.S. since 2013.

The young adult who was ill was paralyzed during the illness in June, health officials said, but they would not say whether that was a permanent condition. The person, who had recovered from the virus, had never been vaccinated for polio. They had not traveled, health officials have said. “It’s a qualitative not a quantitative result,” Rockland Health Commissioner Dr. Patricia Schnabel Ruppert said of the single round of wastewater testing. “It could be from one case, or a number of different cases.”

Read more at the Journal News

Structural Changes in the World Economy Could make Inflation a Recurring Problem

Inflation has many causes, many of them obvious to the untutored eye. Some of the current challenges facing supply chains are transitory. A report by Dutch Financial Services Group ING suggests U.S. inflation may already have peaked. It would be wrong, however, to ignore the structural changes in the world economy that could mean inflation remains a recurring problem.

The link between labor shortages and wage inflation is a good example. We’re reaching the end of the golden period of cheap labor that began in the 1980s as Eastern Europe and China opened up to international markets and baby boomers pursued their careers. This labor influx kept inflation low and removed the incentive to invest in automation, with labor-intensive manual processes remaining a feature of the workplace today.

Read more at IndustryWeek

McMahon: US Economy Clears a Key Post-Pandemic Hurdle, While NY Still Trails

Amid raging inflation and mounting recession worries, the nation’s private-sector payroll jobs total finally cleared the pre-pandemic level last month. Preliminary June data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) put seasonally adjusted private employment at 129,765,000 jobs—about 140,000 more than counted in February 2020.

As of June, 20 states—including neighboring New Jersey, as well as most of the southeast and much of the West—had surpassed their February 2020 private payroll counts, while New York remained 4.5 percent below its February 2020 private employment level. Only Hawaii, Alaska, North Dakota and Vermont remained further behind. As of June, 20 states—including neighboring New Jersey, as well as most of the southeast and much of the West—had surpassed their February 2020 private payroll counts, while New York remained 4.5 percent below its February 2020 private employment level. Only Hawaii, Alaska, North Dakota and Vermont remained further behind.

Read more at the Empire Center

Midyear Results Show Global Steel Output Slipping

Steel production dropped more than 11 million metric tons in the latest monthly summary report from the World Steel Assn., totaling 158.1 million metric tons for June. That figure, though less than -1.0% below the figure World Steel reported for May, is -5.9% lower than the June 2021 global production total, and brings the six-month total for 2022 to 949.4 million metric tons – which is -5.5% lower than the January-June 2021 total.

The declining output is evident in nearly all of the world’s major steel producing countries, and notably in China, but it contrasts with contrasts with World Steel’s latest Short-Range Outlook report for global steel consumption. It predicted 2022 consumption would remain fairly steady with 2021, and a year-over-year rise of just +0.4%. Rising inflation worldwide, and the instability surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, are other growth-limiting factors cited in World Steel’s report.

Read more at American Machinist

Are Your Exports Affected by Sanctions on Russia? It’s Not Always Easy to Tell

Sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine are having an undeniable impact on global supply chains, but individual companies might have a hard time determining precisely how they’re affected.  There are broad sectoral restrictions on U.S. trade with Russia, in areas such as professional services (accounting, management consulting and the like), imports of Russian energy products, and technology with military application. An effective analysis must include every partner in the global supply chain, including sellers, buyers, banks and transportation and logistics providers.

Making the calculation especially difficult is a lack of transparency around Russian control or ownership of various businesses. There’s also the possibility of a product being sold initially to an authorized buyer, then ending up in the hands of a sanctioned party after multiple transactions downstream. That’s the kind of scenario that regimes such as the U.S. State Department’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) were set up expressly to prevent. 

Read more at Supply Chain Brain

3M Will Spin Off its Health-Care Business Into a New Public Company

3M announced Tuesday it will spin off its health-care business into a separate publicly traded company. The new business will focus on wound and oral care, health-care IT and biopharma filtration, the material science company said in a release. That includes products like its bandages, skin adhesives, oral aligners, air purifiers and optical lenses. 3M health-care products recorded more than $8 billion in sales in 2021. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of next year, and 3M will maintain a 19.9% stake in the new company.

The announcement comes alongside 3M’s second-quarter earnings report. Net income dropped to $78 million from $1.5 billion a year earlier, including a $1.2 billion pretax charge tied to resolving litigation related to Combat Arms Earplugs. Revenue fell nearly 3% to $8.7 billion.

Read more at CNBC

General Motors’ Income Tumbles 40% on China Loss, Parts Shortages

General Motors Co.’s GM -2.38%▼ second-quarter net income fell 40% over the prior year, hurt by a loss in China and supply-chain troubles that left the auto maker with tens of thousands of partially built vehicles it couldn’t sell during the period.  The company said net income for the April-to-June period totaled $1.69 billion, down from $2.84 billion a year earlier. The auto maker on Tuesday stood by its forecast for the full year of $9.6 billion to $11.2 billion in net profit.

GM said second-quarter revenue rose about 5%, to $35.76 billion. It posted pretax earnings per share of $1.14.GM warned earlier this month that a drop in vehicle output in North America would hit second-quarter results. A shortage of computer chips and other parts prevented the company from shipping 95,000 vehicles to dealers, GM said, though it expects to clear the backlog during the second half of the year.

Read more at the WSJ

NAM Pushes to End Green Card Backlog 

Manufacturers are frustrated by green card backlogs and processing delays for employment-based immigrant visas at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which threaten to worsen labor shortages. The NAM is pressing the Department of Homeland Security to take action. NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons recently laid out the challenge and the need for action for Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.

“Nearly 45% of manufacturers in a recent Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey fielded by the National Association of Manufacturers reported that they had to forego business opportunities because they did not have enough employees,” said Timmons.  “Foreign-born individuals play a key role in addressing our labor needs,” wrote Timmons. “The number of backlogged green cards is approximately 10 times the total number of employment-based green cards available each year.”

Read the Letter

Daily Briefing – 547

Dems Make Another Push to Pass their Agenda Before August Recess

Congress nears the close of a packed legislative session this week, aiming to pass legislation providing about $54 billion to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing while also juggling a raft of other bills ahead of the monthlong August recess. The priority for both Republican and Democratic leaders is passing the long-stalled semiconductor package.

Along with the bipartisan bill subsidizing chips, Democrats are hoping to salvage a piece of President Biden’s once-ambitious domestic agenda, looking to advance a measure aimed at lowering some drug and healthcare costs. The party is also weighing whether to hold votes related to social issues and guns that could help rally the party’s base.  In the Senate, Democrats are awaiting guidance from the Senate’s parliamentarian over whether a measure aimed at lowering drug costs by giving Medicare the right to negotiate prices for a narrow set of drugs will comport with the Senate’s procedures for passing bills through a budget-related process known as reconciliation.

Read more at Politico

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukraine’s Neighbor Worried About Russian Invasion – Politico
• The Ukrainian Fighters Standing in Russia’s Way on Eastern Front – Reuters
• Russia Strikes School, Civilian Buildings as It Presses Ukraine Bombardment – WSJ
• Moscow Claims Odesa Strikes Hit Military Targets – Politico
• Grain Prices Shoot Back Up After Russian Missile Attack – The Hill
• Germany Bails Out Uniper, Vowing ‘Whatever it Takes’ to Avert Energy Crisis – Politico
• Russia to Cut Europe’s Gas Flow via Nord Stream to 20% – WSJ
• How Heavy are Russian Casualties in Ukraine? – The Economist
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Fed Meeting – Confusing and Contradictory Data Challenge Rate Decision Makers

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has vowed to follow the data in deciding how high to crank up interest rates to crush the worst inflation surge in four decades.  But Powell and other Fed policymakers are making that crucial decision based on data that lately has been so confusing and contradictory that it’s hard for them to know where the economy actually stands.
That uncertainty heightens the risk that they’ll either do too much — triggering a severe recession — or too little, prolonging red-hot inflation and making it harder to conquer.

Economic growth is projected by some analysts to have been negative in the second quarter of the year, but hiring is strong and the jobless rate sits near historic lows. Consumers say they’re unhappy about the economy but are still spending even amid the aggressive price spikes. Supply chains are improving, but manufacturing output is slowing. And Covid cases are skyrocketing again even as America fully reopens for business.

Read more at Politico

There Are Signs Inflation May Have Peaked, but Can It Come Down Fast Enough?

Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, pointed to many indicators that  9.1% might have been the top. Gasoline prices have fallen around 10% from their mid-June high. Wheat futures prices have fallen by 37% since mid-May and corn futures prices are down 27% from mid-June. The cost of shipping goods from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast is 11.4% lower than a month ago. Easing price pressures and improvements in backlogs and supplier delivery times in business surveys suggest that supply-chain snarls are unraveling.

Money-supply growth has slowed sharply, evidence that monetary tightening is starting to bite. Inflation expectations also fell recently—an upbeat signal for the Fed, which believes that such expectations influence wage and price-setting behavior and thus actual inflation.

Read more at the WSJ

U.S. COVID – Scientists Are Narrowing in on Why Some People Keep Avoiding COVID

A majority of people in the U.S have had Covid-19 at least once — likely more than 70% of the country. Many have been infected multiple times. In a study that has not been peer viewed that looked at 257,000 U.S. veterans who’d contracted COVID at least once, 12% had a reinfection by April and about 1% had been infected three times or more. This raises an obvious question: What is keeping that shrinking minority of people from getting sick?

Disease experts are homing in on a few predictive factors beyond individual behavior, including genetics, T cell immunity and the effects of inflammatory conditions like allergies and asthma. But even as experts learn more about the reasons people may be better equipped to avoid COVID, they caution that some of these defenses may not hold up against the latest version of omicron, BA.5, which is remarkably good at spreading and evading vaccine protection.

Read more at NBC News

NYS COVID Update 

Editor’s Note:  Given the small changes in vaccinations we will no longer track this information in the briefing.  Instead we will  provide a link to the NYS Vaccination Tracker below)

The Governor updated COVID data through July 22. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 15
• Total Reported to CDC: 72.569

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,629
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 251

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 9.22%    –   36.22 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 9.85%   –   32.01 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Covid-19 Lab Companies Retrench as Rapid Tests Take Over

U.S. laboratories currently have the capacity to process the results of about 62 million PCR tests for Covid-19 a month, which is half of what it was in March, researchers at the consulting firm Health Catalysts Group estimate, after demand dropped and government funding diminished. Some laboratories and diagnostic companies have laid off employees or reassigned them to other tasks.

Many people have embraced rapid, antigen tests to check whether they are shedding the virus before work, travel or socializing. Rapid tests, however, are less sensitive, and results rarely reach health officials, unlike PCR test results that laboratories report to authorities tracking the pandemic. That is giving officials a dimmer view into a wave driven by the BA. 5 subvariant of Omicron. The 120,000 cases being reported daily on average in the U.S. are likely to be a significant undercount partly because rapid tests aren’t reflected in that data, public-health experts said, and signals in wastewater suggest wider infection.

Read more at The WSJ

New York’ 19th Congressional District Special Election Draws National Spotlight

The victor in New York’s 19th Congressional District will win just four months in office, filling the seat Democrat Antonio Delgado vacated when he became New York’s lieutenant governor. But the Aug. 23 contest — the first battleground House election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade — could prove far more consequential, giving the clearest indication yet of whether abortion, or the economy will be the issue that decides control of Congress.

The candidates agree on one thing: Their upstate New York special election is a key midterm bellwether that will demonstrate just how energized the electorate is about the nation’s single most critical issue. They just don’t agree on what that issue is. Republican Marc Molinaro, the executive in Dutchess County, is focused on the economy and taming inflation. And Democrat Pat Ryan, the executive in Ulster County, says he’ll preserve abortion rights.

Read more at Politico

Walmart Cuts Profit Outlook 

Walmart on Monday cut its quarterly and full-year profit guidance, saying inflation is causing shoppers to spend more on necessities such as food and less on items like clothing and electronics. That shift in spending has left more items on store shelves and warehouses — forcing the big-box retailer to aggressively mark down items that customers don’t want.

Walmart, which is the biggest grocer in the U.S. and often considered a bellwether for the overall economy, said more customers are turning to its stores, which are known for low prices, to fill their pantries and fridges. But they are skipping over general merchandise that they can live without.The company’s stock fell in after-hours trading following the announcement. Shares of other retailers, including Target and e-commerce giant Amazon, also fell.

Read more at CNBC

A West Coast Port Worker Union is Fighting Robots. The Stakes for the Supply Chain are High

There are near 1,000 container ports in the world, yet last year, according to a report by the International Transport Forum, only around 53 were automated, representing 4% of the total global container terminal capacity and the argument about the economic efficiency of automating port work is a key one in the current labor union contract dispute between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA).

the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) represents more than 22,000 longshoremen in 29 ports and terminals up and down the West Coast. Since early May, the ILWU has been deadlocked in contract negotiations with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which represents 70 shipping companies and port and terminal operators. Typical of labor negotiations, wages are an issue, though ILWU members are among the best-paid union workers in the country, averaging $195,000 a year plus benefits, according to the PMA. More contentious is the matter of automation of container-handling machinery, an emerging trend at ports and terminals throughout the world.

Read more at CNBC

Making Smart Warehouse Robots Smarter

Researchers from the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) are working to develop smarter industrial robots that are designed to be aware of whether or not they have the right of way in busy aisles and can intelligently avoid obstacles, people and other robots. The system integrates smart technologies like LiDAR sensors, and uses artificial intelligence and neural networks to achieve a clearer view of personal space so that robots can behave safely in a decentralised way.

With supply chain challenges brought on by the pandemic and increased demands for e-commerce, technology can provide the support businesses need to improve productivity, efficiency and safety in a warehouse setting.

Read more at Food Processing

Aerospace Companies of All Sizes Hurt by Supply Chain

The global air industry is in the midst of a post-pandemic rebound, but supply chain problems have left suppliers and manufacturers scrambling to source everything from raw materials to small electronic components to keep production moving. From multinationals to family-run suppliers, few have been spared the impact of shortages or delays.

We are keeping our head above water, keeping the flow happening, but the gymnastics required to make that happen are as difficult now as they have ever been,” Stephen Timm, president of industry giant Collins Aerospace, told Reuters. At the other end of the spectrum, where suppliers lack the clout of a Collins things are even more uncertain. “At the moment it’s extremely challenging because of the lack of raw materials,” said Paul Wingfield, business development manager at Stokenchurch, England-based Aircraft Materials, which supplies alloys for the industry.

Read more at Reuters

Hyundai Subsidiary Has Used Child Labor at Alabama Factory

A subsidiary of Hyundai Motor Co has used child labor at a plant that supplies parts for the Korean carmaker’s assembly line in nearby Montgomery, Alabama, according to area police, the family of three underage workers, and eight former and current employees of the factory.  Underage workers, in some cases as young as 12, have recently worked at a metal stamping plant operated by SMART Alabama LLC, these people said.

Reuters learned of underage workers at the Hyundai-owned supplier following the brief disappearance in February of a Guatemalan migrant child from her family’s home in Alabama. The girl, who turns 14 this month, and her two brothers, aged 12 and 15, all worked at the plant earlier this year and weren’t going to school, according to people familiar with their employment. Their father, Pedro Tzi, confirmed these people’s account in an interview with Reuters.

Read more at Reuters

London Narrowly Avoided Blackout as Electricity Prices Surged Last Week

Britain paid the highest price on record for electricity in London last week as the capital narrowly avoided a power blackout, it has emerged. National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) was forced to pay £9,724.54 ($ 11748.32) per megawatt hour to Belgium, more than 5,000% higher than the typical price, last Wednesday to prevent a blackout in south-east London, as first reported by Bloomberg. 

Increased demand for energy across Europe combined with a bottleneck in the grid forced the ESO to buy electricity from Belgium at the highest price Britain has ever paid to keep power flowing.Other factors, including planned maintenance outages of overhead lines and a storm in Belgium impacting solar power, put the system under severe strain.While the amount bought at the record amount was minimal – reportedly enough to supply eight houses for a year – it has exposed the UK’s reliance on importing electricity from interconnectors overseas, particularly France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Read more at itw

Nuclear Fusion Energy Reactor Breakthrough Set To Help Stabilize Plasma

Scientists at a U.S. government plasma lab have discovered a missing component in nuclear fusion equations that could speed up development of a working reactor. Specifically, the discovery could improve the design of the donut-shaped fusion reactors known as tokamaks. Tokamaks work by creating a material known as plasma, in which an element—usually hydrogen—is heated so much that it becomes an electrically-charged soup of electrons and atomic nuclei. Powerful magnets then contain this plasma into a safe, stable flow, creating conditions where fusion should be possible.

Nuclear fusion is the process of joining two atomic nuclei together in order to form a single, larger nucleus whilst releasing energy in the process. It’s the same process that powers our sun, where hydrogen atoms are fused together to form helium. Earlier this month, a report found private investment in fusion companies had skyrocketed.

Read more at Newsweek

The US

Daily Briefing – 546

Supply Chain: Truckers Block Oakland Port to Protest a California Labor Law 

Independent truckers who have been protesting at California’s busy Oakland seaport over the past week against a new state law known as the “gig-worker” law took a break on Saturday, when the port business slowed to a crawl. Operations at the Northern California port ground to a near standstill after protesters used pickets and tractor-trailers to block terminal gates. But some truckers said protests may resume on Monday when normal port traffic is scheduled. 

California labor law, AB 5, has run afoul of independent truck drivers, of which there are about 70,000 in the state. The law, passed in 2019, reclassified gig workers like truckers from independent contractors to employees to address disparities in benefits and pay. Enforcement in the trucking industry was held up over legal challenges, which the U.S. Supreme Court declined to advance last month. Now, many independent truckers fear it will undermine their way of doing business.

Read more at Reuters

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Zelensky: Kyiv’s Forces Moving Towards Occupied Kherson –  BBC
• Russia, Ukraine Clear Way for Grain Exports to Resume Amid Fears of Global Food Crisis – WSJ
• Odesa Strike Shows it Will Not be Easy to Export Grain Via Ports – Reuters
• New York Guardsmen to Take Over Training Ukrainian Soldiers – Military Times
• Russia Slashes Key Interest Rate by 150 Basis Points to Below Pre War Level in Shock Move – CNBC
• Russia About to ‘Run Out of Steam’ in Ukraine, British Spy Chief Says – Reuters
• Russian Tank Attack in Eastern Ukraine Kills 2 Americans, Canadian and Swede – Politico
• Biden Administration Rolls Out $270 Million Ukraine Weapons Package – The Hill
• In Pictures: Five Months of War in Ukraine – Reuters
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

PMI: Eurozone Business Activity Slid Into a Contraction in July

S&P Global’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, fell to 49.4 in July – the lowest since February 2021 – from 52.0 in June, well below all forecasts in a Reuters poll that had predicted a more modest dip to 51.0.

Businesses across the euro zone continued to report mounting inflation pressures and an acceleration in wage growth, even as the overall growth outlook becomes increasingly murky, the European Central Bank said on Friday, based on a survey of 71 major firms. Inflation in the currency union was 8.6% last month, official data showed, and on Thursday the ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points, more than expected, confirming that concerns about runaway inflation now trump growth considerations.

Read more at Reuters

PMI: U.S. Business Activity Slid Into a Contraction in July

U.S. business activity contracted in July on the sharpest pullback in output since early in the Covid-19 pandemic, according to surveys of purchasing managers, while eurozone surveys pointed to a higher probability the continent could soon slide into a recession.

Data firm S&P Global said its Composite PMI Index for the U.S.—which combines the manufacturing and services sectors—dropped to 47.5 in July from 52.3 in June. The services index slid to 47 in July from 52.7 the prior month. The drop in U.S. services activity was particularly sharp, with the biggest fall in output since May 2020—a worrying sign on consumer spending, the engine for U.S. growth. while the manufacturing index was 52.3 in July, a two-year low.

Read more at the WSJ

U.S. COVID – Cases Rise, Mortality Steady

The US CDC is reporting 89.7 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,020,355 deaths. After plateauing over the past several weeks around 100-110,000 new cases per day, the weekly average increased to 126,018 on July 19. The average daily mortality has held relatively steady at approximately 275-350 deaths per day since late April. Both new hospital admissions (+7.8% over the past week) and current hospitalizations (+6.9%) continue to increase.

Community transmission in the US is primarily driven by the Omicron BA.5 sublineage. BA.5 is projected to have accounted for more than half of sequenced specimens starting the week of July 2, and the estimate reached 77.9% for the week of July 16. The BA.4 sublineage accounts for a smaller proportion of cases and appears to be decreasing in prevalence. The BA.4 sublineage fell from an estimated 16% over the past 2 weeks to 12.8% the week of July 16, and is now outpacing BA.2.12.1 as the second most prevalent sublineage. Together, Omicron variants represent essentially all new cases in the US.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

NYS COVID Update 

Editor’s Note:  Given the small changes in vaccinations we will no longer track this information in the briefing.  Instead we will  provide a link to the NYS Vaccination Tracker below)

The Governor updated COVID data through July 22. 

Deaths:

• Daily: 15
• Total Reported to CDC: 72.569

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,629
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 251

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 9.22%    –   36.22 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 9.85%   –   32.01 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Prior Omicron Infection Protects Against BA.4 and BA.5 Variants

The Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 have proven to be stealthier at evading people’s immune defences than all of their predecessors.  But recent research shows that previous infection with an older variant (such as Alpha, Beta or Delta) offers some protection against reinfection with BA.4 or BA.5, and that a prior Omicron infection is substantially more effective. That was the conclusion of a study that evaluated all of Qatar’s COVID-19 cases since the wave of BA.4 and BA.5 infections began.

The researchers found that infection with a pre-Omicron variant prevented reinfection with BA.4 or BA.5 with an effectiveness of 28.3%, and prevented symptomatic reinfection with either subvariant with an effectiveness of 15.1%. Prior infection with Omicron granted stronger protection: it was 79.7% effective at preventing BA.4 and BA.5 reinfection and 76.1% effective at preventing symptomatic reinfection.

Read more at Nature

New York State Launches Pandemic Review

The state is kicking off a long-awaited review of its pandemic response looking back to the earliest days of the virus. Gov. Kathy Hochul offered some details last week about the forthcoming retrospective on the state’s policies, an analysis she’s been pressed to provide since taking office nearly one year ago. Its goal is to create best practices for future crises, Hochul said.

The administration will put out an RFP for a one-year contract, with a six-month initial report, for an outside entity to analyze what went well during the pandemic, what didn’t and why. It’s not likely to reflect kindly upon Hochul’s predecessor, whose initial stardom from fighting Covid-19 has now been overshadowed by reports his administration undercounted deaths in nursing homes and ignored state experts in his pandemic response. The six-month timeline means the findings won’t be out before the November general election.

Read more at Politico

New York State Launches Hotline For Complaints of Workplace Sexual Harassment

In March of 2022, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed legislation directing the New York State Division of Human Rights (“DHR”) to establish a toll-free confidential hotline designed to provide counsel and assistance to individuals with complaints of workplace sexual harassment. Employees in New York state may now call 1-800-HARASS-3 (1-800-427-2773) for issues relating to workplace sexual harassment. The hotline is open during regular business hours.

The law requires the DHR to disseminate information about the hotline, including by working with the New York State Department of Labor (“DOL”) “to ensure that information on the hotline is included in any materials employers must post or provide to employees regarding sexual harassment.” This means that employers should expect an update to the DHR and DOL’s model sexual harassment prevention materials. In the meantime, employers should update their sexual harassment policies and related materials to include the new hotline number.

Read more at Harris Beach

NYS Added 11,400 Mfg Jobs Over the Past 12 Months –1,000 of Them Were in the Hudson Valley

Private sector jobs in the Hudson Valley rose over the year by 30,500, or 4.0 percent, to 797,200 in June 2022.  For the month of June the region gained 16,000 jobs  For the 12 months since June of 2021 job gains were largest in leisure and hospitality (+9,700), but manufacturing added 1,000 jobs.

Statewide there were 8,074,800 people working in June 2022 up 77,900 from the month before and 433,600 from June of 2021. 420,800 of those were working in manufacturing 1,500 more than in May and 11,400 more than in June of 2021. 

Hudson Valley Labor Market Profile June 2022

Employers Are Budgeting Big Pay Raises for 2023

In response to a tight labor market, employers are planning to up employee salaries in the biggest projected hike in 15 years, new data from Willis Towers Watson finds. Companies, on average, are budgeting a 4.1% salary increase for 2023, just above this year’s average 4% increase. The 2022 and 2023 salary increases are the largest since the Great Recession of 2008, according to the consulting firm, which surveyed 1,430 employers for insights in April and May.

Nearly two in three (64%) U.S. companies are budgeting for higher pay raises than last year, while two-fifths (41%) increased their budgets since original projections were made earlier this year, the survey found. Less than half of companies (45%) are sticking with the pay budgets they set at the start of the year.

Read more at HR Executive

US Chamber Takes a Closer Look at Labor Force Participation

To further understand shifts in the labor force Chamber researchers look at labor force participation across different industries. Some have a shortage of labor, while others have a surplus of workers.  You guessed it – durable goods manufacturing has a labor shortage—there are more unfilled job openings than unemployed workers with experience in their respective industry.

Even if every unemployed person with experience in the durable goods manufacturing industry were employed, the industry would only fill 65% of the vacant jobs.  Conversely, in the transportation, construction, and mining industries, there is a labor surplus. There are more unemployed workers with experience in their respective industry than there are open jobs.  The manufacturing industry faced a major setback after losing roughly 1.4 million jobs at the onset of the pandemic. Since then, the industry has struggled to hire entry level and skilled workers alike.

Read more at the US Chamber

Raimondo Warns of the ‘Scary’ Supply Chain Scenario that Would Lead to a ‘Deep and Immediate’ U.S. Recession

Semiconductors are essential to every scrap of modern technology powering society today. Yet the chip industry is dominated by manufacturers in the small island of Taiwan, where a handful of firms churn out roughly 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. Policy makers in the U.S. have started to see that as a problem. To guard against A chip shortage striking in the future, Congress is in the process of passing the roughly $52 billion needed to fund the CHIPS for America Act, which incentivizES semiconductor manufacturers to increase production capacity in the U.S. 

Although Taiwan is a self-governing island with its political capital in Taipei, the government of mainland China in Beijing insists it has sovereignty over Taiwan and has frequently warned that it will assert that claim with force if necessary. If the U.S. suddenly “no longer had access” to chips in Taiwan, as Raimondo put it, the most likely cause would be a Beijing-led invasion of the island. 

Read more at Fortune

Chinese Chip Manufacturing is Advancing

The U.S. may be wielding sanctions in a bid to slow the rise of the Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., but it seems SMIC recently made a major technological leap. The company is reportedly now shipping chips for Bitcoin mining that use a 7-nanometer manufacturing process (a reference to generations of manufacturing technology.)

Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung are a generation ahead, but still, it appears SMIC is doing just fine.

Read more at Bloomberg

These Firms are Trying to Loosen China’s Grip on Rare Earths

China is the world’s largest producer of rare earth metals, dominating 80% of global supply for the materials that are essential to much of today’s high-end tech. Magnets spun from rare earth are needed to create the engines that power electric vehicles, the motors inside wind turbines and guiding systems inside missiles. 

Rare earths are so vital that in 2019, after Beijing threatened to limit global supply, the U.S. launched a slew of legislative action to bolster domestic supply. And the U.S. isn’t the only country trying to loosen China’s stranglehold on the industry. Companies in Australia and the U.K. are investing millions to develop new rare earth refineries too, with the global efforts to pry Beijing’s hand loose of the industry converging, by chance, around the year 2025.

Read more at Fortune

The US Dollar is Stronger than its Been in Decades, What That Means for the Rest of the World

The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of 16 currencies, rose 8.7% through June to notch its best first half since 2010. It is up another 1.4% this month. While currencies in emerging markets typically feel pressure when investors flock to a strong dollar, those of developed countries also have fallen. The euro slid below parity with the dollar last week, hitting its weakest level since 2002.

Countries that issue debt in foreign currency are at risk when their currencies depreciate because that debt becomes more expensive to pay off. Governments that default on their debt risk losing access to international markets and the ability to finance critical functions. Emerging-market countries have varying degrees of their debt in dollars. Dollar-denominated debt issued by governments in Argentina, Ukraine and Colombia all exceeded 20% as a share of their gross domestic product as of the first quarter, according to the IIF, while that figure is below 2% for a handful of Asian and European countries.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Briefing – 545

U.S. Home Sales Fell Again in June, But Prices Kept Rising

U.S. existing home sales fell for a fifth straight month in June to the lowest level in two years, as fast-rising interest rates and record-high selling prices make buying a home too expensive for a growing share of American households. In June, sales of previously owned homes fell 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million units, the lowest level since June 2020. Sales have now fallen each month since January.

The median existing house price climbed 13.4% from a year earlier to an all-time high of $416,000 in June. It was the 23rd straight month of double-digit annual price gains, the longest such run since the late 1970s. Sales gains remained concentrated in the upper-price end of the market. Sales of homes priced below $500,000 were down by double-digit margins, led by a 31% year-over-year drop in the $100,000 to $250,000 range, while sales of houses selling for $500,000 and up eked out modest gains.

Read more at Reuters

War in Ukraine Headlines

• Ukraine and Russia: the Latest News – The Guardian
• Ukrainian First Lady Zelenska Addresses Congress: ‘Russia is Destroying Our People’ – Yahoo
• Ukraine Targets Key Bridge as It Prepares Counteroffensive in South – WSJ
• Russia Pounds Ukraine as Putin gets Iran’s Backing – AP
• Russia’s Lavrov Says Ready to Expand War Aims – BBC
• Ukraine Graft Concerns Resurface as Russia War Goes On – AP
• Russia Plans to Annex Ukrainian Land – BBC
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Biden Announces New Climate Change Programs, But no Emergency Declaration

President Biden announced new executive steps to combat climate change on Wednesday, but fell short of issuing a climate emergency declaration as some Democrats had called for amid stalled negotiations over major environmental legislation in Washington.

The initiatives include providing $2.3 billion in funding for a program that helps communities prepare for disasters by expanding flood control and retrofitting buildings, as well as leveraging funding to help low-income families cover heating and cooling costs.  The president is also directing the Department of the Interior to propose new offshore wind areas in the Gulf of Mexico, a plan that could help the administration reach its goal to deploy 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030, the White House said. Biden is ordering the Interior Secretary to advance wind energy development in the waters off the mid and southern Atlantic Coast and Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Read more at CNBC

The Housing Market Enters Into Recession—Here’s What to Expect Next

Soon after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the housing market slipped into a “housing correction.” It’s easy to see how those higher rates priced out many would-be buyers. If a borrower in December took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.1% rate, they’d owe a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,135. If a borrower took out a $500,000 mortgage at today’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (5.51%), they’d get a $2,839 payment.

Over the coming year, Moody’s Analytics expects significantly “overvalued” housing markets like Boise and Austin to see home prices fall 5% to 10%. Nationally, Moody’s Analytics expects year-over-year home price growth to be at 0%. However, if a recession hits, Moody’s Analytics predicts significantly “overvalued” housing markets could see home prices drop by 15% to 20% while national home prices would fall by around 5%.

Read more at Fortune

U.S. COVID – The Hunt for Drugs for Mild COVID

A shift is afoot in the search for COVID-19 therapies: some researchers are turning their attention towards drugs that could be used to treat mild illness, even in people who are not at high risk of severe disease. Treating sore throats and sniffles might sound indulgent, but drugs for mild disease could mark a turning point in the pandemic. Such a treatment not only would get people back to their lives sooner, but could also limit disease spread. Fewer infections mean fewer opportunities for the virus to mutate, so drugs for mild disease could stem the rise of new variants.

Such drugs could fill a yawning gap, says infectious-disease expert Oriol Mitjà at Germans Trias i Pujol University Hospital in Barcelona, Spain. High-risk people have treatment options, he says, but moderate-risk people who don’t quite qualify for existing treatments are left fearing for their safety. “There is a need there,” he says. Such treatments could reduce the disruption that even mild cases can inflict on people’s jobs and family lives.

Read more at Nature

NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Editor’s Note:  Given the small changes in vaccinations we will no longer track this information in the briefing.  Instead we will  provide a link to the NYS Vaccination Tracker below)

The Governor updated COVID data through July 7.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 72,417

Hospitalizations:

• Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 2,458
• Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 237

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

• Statewide 8.99%    –   36.84 positive cases per 100,00 population
• Mid-Hudson: 8.55%   –   31.44 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:

• Read the press release
• Visit the NYS COVID-19 Data Hub
• NYS Vaccination Tracker

Will  You Need to Get COVID-19 Boosters Again and Again

Several highly effective vaccines were developed at an unprecedented speed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. During the phase 3 clinical trials, mRNA vaccines had vaccine efficacy of 94–95% in preventing symptomatic infections. After the rollout, real-world evidence showed that the mRNA vaccines provided ~90% effectiveness against infection. Then came the variants. 

The effectiveness of a primary series of mRNA vaccines (two doses) to prevent hospitalization and death is also being chipped away by these highly immune-evasive variants. Vaccine-mediated protection became shorter-lived, especially with the emergence of Omicron variants. People look at these data and wonder, what is the point of getting the vaccines if they will not prevent symptomatic infections, and the protection does not last? Well, to expect robust protection from just the primary series of any vaccines is unreasonable—and was always likely to be. Instead, we need to understand that we’re going to be getting boosters in the foreseeable future, and to appreciate their benefits.

Read more at Time

U.K. Inflation Hits 9.4%, a New 40-Year High

The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics Wednesday said consumer prices were 9.4% higher in June than a year earlier, the highest rate of inflation since 1982 and a pickup from 9.1% in May. The figure marks the fastest rise in prices for a Group of Seven economy since the global surge began at the start of last year.

Economists expect the annual rate of consumer-price inflation to increase further. The Bank of England has said it should top out at around 11% in the final months of the year. The U.K. sets a ceiling on home energy prices twice yearly, and the next adjustment is due in October, when a further rise of 50% is expected. “The inflation outlook remains grim,” said Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “Our updated projections now show CPI peaking at 11.3%.”

Read more at the WSJ

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are final candidates in race to succeed Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister

Boris Johnson will be succeeded as prime minister of the United Kingdom by either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss after the Conservative Party leadership race was on Wednesday narrowed down to the final two candidates. Ten Conservatives stood in the contest to replace him, and over five rounds of voting, members of parliament whittled those down to two. Sunak won 137 votes and Truss got 113 votes in the final round, while Penny Mordaunt with 105 votes lost out.

Sunak has been considered the frontrunner for a long time. He served as Johnson’s Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) from 2020 to 2022, and gained a largely positive public profile after introducing popular measures during the coronavirus pandemic, such as the furlough scheme and discounts on eating in restaurants.  Since Johnson has taken office, Truss has been his trade secretary and his foreign secretary. 

Read more at CNN

Putin Signals Russian Gas Will Resume in a Key Pipeline But at a Reduced Level

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia suggested late Tuesday that natural gas would resume flowing to Europe after the Nord Stream 1 pipeline’s maintenance shutdown, but warned that supplies may be severely curtailed. Mr. Putin said that shipments via Nord Stream 1 had been hampered by repairs necessary for turbines made by the German company Siemens.

Even before the pipeline was shut down on July 11 for annual maintenance, flows from Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, had been reduced to only 40 percent capacity. Since then the German government has secured the return of the Siemens turbine from Canada, but Mr. Putin said that another one was now in need of refurbishing. “If one more comes, then it’s good, two will work. And if it does not come, there will be one, it will be only 30 million cubic meters per day,” he told reporters. That’s less than 20 percent of the pipeline’s capacity of 160 million cubic meters of gas per day.

Read More at the NY Times

EU Asks Countries to Cut Gas Demand by 15% Until Spring

The European Union set out emergency plans on Wednesday for countries to cut their gas use by 15% until March, warning them that without deep cuts now they could struggle for fuel during winter if Russia cuts off supply. The EU plan will identify measures to reduce gas demand and identify critical sectors where reducing gas demand could disrupt supply chains, Simson said. 

Europe is racing to fill its gas storage ahead of winter and build a buffer in case Moscow further restricts supplies in retaliation for European support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. A dozen EU countries are already facing reduced Russian deliveries, and EU officials say a full Russian gas halt is likely.

Read more at Reuters

The Rhine Is Inches From Being Too Shallow for Shipments

The River Rhine, one of Europe’s most important rivers which is used to transport cargo including chemicals, grains, and coal across the continent, is drying up amid record-breaking summer heatwaves. Germany’s Federal Institute of Hydrology has warned that rivers in Central Europe are at “unusually low” levels and are continuing to fall.

Low water levels on the Rhine having an economic impact has not been uncommon in recent years, with a lack of water in the river attributed in 2019 to causing a short-lived recession in Germany at the tail end of 2018.  Pantheon Macroeconomics said in January 2019 that low river levels effectively amount to a “supply shock in German manufacturing,” by lowering the availability of key goods needed for the sector.

Read more at Business Insider

France Outlines Plans for Buyout of EDF to Relaunch Country’s Nuclear Industry

The offer to minority shareholders will be priced at 12 euros per share, meaning the operation to fully nationalise the group will cost 9.7 billion euros ($9.9 billion), the finance ministry said. The electricity provider is currently 84-percent owned by the state, with institutional and retail investors holding 15 percent and staff one percent.

The state’s complete takeover of EDF, first announced on July 6, “will give EDF the means to implement the new nuclear power plant programme the president has asked for and the roll out of renewable energy in France”, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said. President Emmanuel Macron’s government set aside funds for the cost in a mini-budget in the autumn. The supplementary budget will, however, be subject to approval by parliament, where Macron’s party and its allies lost their majority in parliamentary elections last month.

Read more at France24

World Bank, FAO, Others Call for Urgent Action to Address Global Food Security Crisis

The World Bank Group, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Food Programme, (WFP) and World Trade Organisation (WTO), have called for urgent actions to address the global food security crisis. The Director General of the WTO, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said that the COVID-19 pandemic’s interruption in international supply chains, and the war in Ukraine have severely disrupted food, fuel, and fertilizer markets, which are interlinked.

The WTO boss advocated that in the short term, releasing stocks as appropriate and consistent with WTO rules, and finding a diplomatic solution to evacuate the grains and fertilizers currently blocked in Ukraine, would help to address availability and affordability of food supplies.

Read more at This Day

Reducing Health and Safety Risks in Machine Shops

Machine shops are filled with skilled individuals working at the top of their games, but that doesn’t make these spaces free from risks to health or safety. What are the most common risks that machine shop employees face – and what are the best ways to reduce health risks?

Depending on its output, a machine shop’s loadout details will vary from one operation to the next. Still, many of the health risks are universal, appearing in every shop. Here are the most common health risks in machine shops.

Read more at American Machinist

At UK Airshow, Defense Execs Warn of Inflation, Supply Chains, and Worker Shortages 

While there was a general sense of excitement and optimism among those returning to the first major air show in Europe in three years—the virus canceled the 2020 event here and Paris Air Show in 2021—there was resounding consensus that several hurdles lie ahead, especially toward filling job vacancies across the blue- and white-collar workforces. 

The “Great Resignation” hit defense firms hard, about 6 percent above the national average, according to a new McKinsey study. The consulting firm estimates that about 46 percent of aerospace and defense workers were somewhat likely to leave their job in the next three to six months. Supply-chain hiccups still remain throughout the sector; executives mentioned difficulty sourcing  microchips, rocket motors, structural titanium castings, and even some raw materials. Raytheon, for example, has 350 people solely working on alleviating supply-chain issues.

Read more at Defense One

Albany Amazon Workers Launch Campaign to Unionize

Amazon workers at a warehouse in Albany, N.Y., have launched a bid to unionize after another warehouse on Staten Island successfully unionized back in April. The group announced this week they were organizing a union, saying in a Twitter post they would have a rally on July 17.  Organizers for the union said they are waiting until they get 70 percent to 80 percent of workers to sign union authorization cards before giving them to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to start the official union process. The NLRB only requires 30 percent of workers to sign the cards. 

“Our employees have the choice of whether or not to join a union. They always have. As a company, we don’t think unions are the best answer for our employees. Our focus remains on working directly with our team to continue making Amazon a great place to work,” Kelly Nantel, an Amazon spokesperson, said in a statement. 

Read more at The Hill