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Daily Briefing -182

Cuomo Executive Order Amends Traveler Quarantine Restriction Policy – Allows Travelers to “Test Out” 

The Executive Order directs the Commissioner of the Department of Health to modify the travel advisory. The modified Travel Advisory is effective at 12:01 a.m. on November 4, 2020, until rescinded by the Commissioner.  Any violation of a quarantine or isolation order issued to an individual pursuant may be subject to a civil penalty of up to $10,000. 

The Travel Advisory now states that all travelers entering New York from a state which is not a contiguous state shall quarantine for a period of 14 days consistent with Department of Health regulations for quarantine unless:

LESS THAN 24 HOURS –  For travelers who travel outside of New York for less than 24 hours, the traveler does not need to test prior to departure from the state, and does not need to quarantine upon arrival back in New York. However, such travelers must continue to fill out the traveler form upon entry; and shall take a diagnostic test upon the fourth day after arrival in New York.

MORE THAN 24 HOURS – For any traveler who has traveled outside of New York for more than 24 hours, such traveler must seek testing prior to departure from that state, within 72 hours of departure, and prior to arrival in New York. The traveler must, upon arrival in New York, quarantine according to Department of Health guidelines for a minimum of three days, measured from time of arrival, and on day four may seek a diagnostic test to exit quarantine. The traveler may exit quarantine upon receipt of the second negative test result.

ESSENTIAL WORKERS – The Commissioner may issue additional protocols for essential workers, or for other extraordinary circumstances, when a quarantine is not possible, provided such measures continue to safeguard the public health. 

Read the press release

COVID and Cluster Update – New Record High Number of COVID-19 Tests Reported

Governor Cuomo held a briefing by phone call Sunday detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday October 31st.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.10%
  • Orange Orange Zone: 3.75%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 4.20%
  • Statewide: 1.5%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.3%
  • Statewide hospitalizations: 1,125 (259 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

Tomorrow is “Last Day to Vote Day”  Here Are The Latest Polls for President and Senate Control

With early voting taking place across the country and expanded vote by mail opportunities the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is more like the last day to vote than election day. Here are the latest public opinion polls from and Real Clear Politics. 

Dems Battle Seek Supermajority in New York State

Democrats in the State Senate currently hold the largest majority in over a century, with 40 out of 63 members. In 2018, Democrats took control of the Senate for the first time in more than 100 years. Now they are poised to potentially gain even more control, being only two seats away from a supermajority.  

A state Senate supermajority for Democrats would certainly change the political landscape of Albany allowing the Legislature to override any vetoes issued by Governor Andrew Cuomo. Democrats already dominate the State Assembly by a 2-1 ratio, and hold the power to override a veto as it is.   Key races this year are in Western New York, Long Island and the Hudson Valley. 

Read more and watch the video at Spectrum News 

Redfin.Com: Users Leaving Expensive States Picks Up With Pandemic

California and New York had the biggest upticks in people looking to move out of state since last year, followed by Massachusetts, Washington, D.C., and Illinois, according to a new report from Redfin (, the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Nearly 53,000 more users looked to move out of California than into it in the third quarter, a 62% increase since the third quarter of 2019 and the highest rate since Redfin started tracking migration in the beginning of 2017. In New York, almost 47,000 more users looked to leave the state than move in during the third quarter, roughly 35% more than the 35,000 home searchers looking to leave during the same time period last year.

Read more at the Daily Record (WA)

CDC’s Expanded “Close Contact” Rule Problematic for Employers

The revised definition of close contact issued by CDC on Oct. 21 now applies to “someone who was within six feet of an infected person for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period starting from two days before illness onset (or, for asymptomatic patients, two days prior to test specimen collection) until the time the patient is isolated.”  

“This deceptively subtle change could have a significant impact on how businesses identify who has been exposed to COVID-19 and who, therefore, should quarantine for 14 days,” say attorneys for the law firm of Morgan Lewis & Bockius. “Indeed, after someone in the workplace tests positive, substantially more employees will likely be identified as close contacts and required to quarantine under the CDC’s updated guidance.”

Read more at EHS Today

U.S. Household Spending Rose 1.4% in September

The Commerce Department said personal-consumption expenditures—a measure of household spending on goods and services—rose 1.4% last month. Consumers have increased spending since the summer, although the pace of gains slowed into early fall. Consumers last month doled out more on autos, clothing and footwear, continuing a trend of robust outlays on goods due to pent-up demand from pandemic-related economic disruptions.

Personal income—a measure of what households receive from wages and salaries, government aid and investments—was up 0.9% last month, after a sharp decline in August, rising on higher pay and remaining pandemic-related aid. 

Read more in the WSJ

DiNapoli: Local Sales Tax Collections in NYS Down for Third Quarter 2020

Sales tax revenue for local governments in New York state dropped 9.5 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, according to State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. Sales tax collections from July to September totaled $4.3 billion, or $452 million less than last year.

Read the Controller’s report

Ford Reports Strong Third Quarter as Demand for Trucks and SUVs Picks Up Again

Ford Motor Co. made $2.4 billion in net income during the third quarter of 2020 and revised its full-year outlook to reflect an overall profit as demand for SUVs and pickup trucks advanced faster than expected.

The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker recorded total revenue of $37.5 billion for the quarter on a net income margin of 6.4%. The company ended the quarter with nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion in liquidity after fully repaying $15 billion in revolving credit loans. Updated guidance for the fourth quarter anticipate earnings between break-even and a loss of $500 million.

Read more in IndustryWeek

The Pandemic May be Leading to Fewer Babies in Rich Countries

It is too early, by a few months at least, to be sure what the effect of covid-19 will be on fertility rates. But different patterns seem to be emerging in rich and poor countries. In the rich world many are holding off starting a family or adding to it. But in the poorest places a baby boom may be in the offing. Governments are already trying to adapt. It is not just Singapore trying to boost birth rates. Japan’s new prime minister, Suga Yoshihide, last week called for health insurance to cover in vitro fertility treatment. 

The big question is how long-lasting the impact on birth rates will be. History suggests the decline in birth rates could be rapidly reversed. 

Read more in The Economist


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Daily Briefing – 181

COVID and Cluster Update – New Record High Number of COVID-19 Tests Reported

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Wednesday, October 28th.  A total of 168,353 COVID-19 diagnostic tests were reported to the State; a new record for a single day.

Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.24%
  • Orange Orange Zone: 2.65%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 2.72%
  • Statewide: 1.48%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.25%
  • Statewide hospitalizations: 1,085 (237 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

US Economic Activity Rose at a Record 33.1% Annualized Pace After Pandemic Slump

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance print on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

  • 3Q GDP, annualized quarter-over-quarter: 33.1% vs. 32.0% expected, -31.4% in the second quarter
  • 3Q Personal Consumption: 40.7% vs. 38.9% expected, -33.2% in the second quarter
  • 3Q GDP Price Index: 3.6% vs. 2.9% expected, -1.8% in the second quarter
  • 3Q Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 3.5% vs. 4.0% expected, -0.8% in the second quarter

The quarterly U.S. GDP report served as a backwards-looking view of the state of the economy, especially now given the ever-changing landscape induced by the coronavirus pandemic.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 751,000, Lowest Since March 14

Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24, down 40,000 from the previous week. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims to come in at 778,000. It was the lowest initial claims total since the week of March 14, when they came in at 282,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 778,000 new claims for last week.

But with Covid-19 infections rising sharply again, economists voiced concern about the jobs market and economy.

Read more at CNBC

Good News/Bad News – Shrinking Labor Force Drives New York State’s Unemployment Rate Below 10%

GOOD NEWS: New York State’s unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent in September, marking the first time the rate has been below 10 percent since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2.8 percentage point improvement in the unemployment rate was the second largest among all states, as shown in the map below. New Jersey led the nation with a 4.4 percentage point decline.

BAD NEWS: Unfortunately, a deeper dive into the BLS data reveals troubling context: New York State’s workforce declined by nearly 363,000 last month, a 2.3 percentage point drop from August (based on preliminary figures), while the number of individuals officially considered unemployed declined by 302,000. In short, the unemployment rate went down in large part because of the decline in New Yorkers counted as working or seeking employment. Such a decrease in the size of the workforce may indicate that individuals have ceased searching for a job actively.

Read more at the Controller’s website

Bond Schoeneck and King Has Updated Their New York Travel Restrictions  Frequently Asked Questions

On October 27, Governor Andrew Cuomo added California to the travel advisory. Massachusetts meets the criteria to be added to the travel advisory list but was not added because a quarantine would be nearly impossible to enforce along New York’s border.  In addition, on September 28, 2020, Governor Cuomo issued Executive Order 205.1 which requires travelers coming to New York from any country with a CDC Level 2 or Level 3 countries to quarantine. On October 8, 2020, the Department of Health updated its Interim Guidance for Quarantine Restrictions on Travelers Arriving in New York State Following Out of State Travel (the Guidance).

The changes to the Guidance are significant. BSK attorneys examine some frequently asked questions about the Order and the Guidance.

Read more as BSK

ECB Hints at More Stimulus in December

The European Central Bank hinted at more monetary stimulus on Thursday, as the two largest economies in the region prepare for a second national lockdown.  The bank decided to keep its rates and wider monetary policy unchanged, but suggested that additional policy action in the euro zone could come as soon as December.

“The Governing Council will carefully assess the incoming information, including the dynamics of the pandemic, prospects for a rollout of vaccines and developments in the exchange rate,” the ECB said in a statement on Thursday.

Read more at CNBC


Caterpillar Sees Improvement in Still-Depressed Third-Quarter Sales

Profit per share of the heavy-equipment manufacturer was $1.22, $1.44 or 54% less than it was a year ago. The company’s operating profit margin was 10.0%.

Sales of construction equipment in the third quarter were 23% worse in the third quarter of 2020 than they were in Q3 2019. Sales were 21% worse than last year for sales of mining and resource equipment during the third quarter and 24% worse for energy and transportation equipment.

Read more at IndustryWeek

How Automakers Keep COVID-19 Off Factory Floors

  • Temperature checks before getting on to the factory floor…
  • social distancing during lunch breaks…
  • Masks on at all times while working…
  • and cleaning, cleaning, cleaning….

That’s how auto factories in the midwest and the south are running at near-full speed even though COVID-19 cases are surging in the communities right outside their factory walls.

So far, there’s been no major outbreaks on any of the factory floors operated by Detroit’s Big Three, since General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler resumed production in May after the pandemic forced an unprecedented two-month shut down.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Survey: Pandemic Leads Women to Consider Career Change

The economic fallout of COVID-19 has had a severe impact on women in the workplace. In fact, 58%  say COVID-19 has had a negative impact on their careers., according to a  new survey from MetLife examining the barriers women are facing amid the pandemic.

Despite this disruption – or perhaps because of it – roughly 1 in 4 women have been considering a career change since the pandemic hit. Many women are looking at STEM fields, specifically, with 2 in 5 noting that they are interested in pursuing a career in STEM, an industry forecasted to grow at a greater rate than non-STEM industries in the years ahead.

Read more in IndustryWeek


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Daily Briefing – 180

Orange to Orange – NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

Governor Cuomo held a phone call briefing detailing New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Monday, October 26th.  The “red zone” in Orange County will be changed to an “orange zone” as a result of the progress made reducing the COVID-19 infection rate from 12 to 2 percent. The “yellow zone” in Orange County will continue. While other “micro-clusters” have experienced decreased positivity rates, no changes will be made to those ‘micro-clusters’ at this time. The State will reevaluate the data next week.

Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.8%
  • Orange Hot Zone: 2.38%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 4.34%
  • Statewide: 1.5%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.3%
  • Statewide hospitalizations: 1,085 (236 in ICU) 

Here are some useful websites:

Other News From the Governor’s Briefing

  • TRAVEL ADVISORY: In response to increasing positivity rates across the nation, New York will adjust the metric for states to be included in the travel advisory requiring quarantine protocols upon entering New York. The Governor stated there is currently no travel ban, just quarantine protocols from states with high positivity rates.
  • THANKSGIVING: The State will not place additional restrictions on Thanksgiving gatherings, but Governor Cuomo offered his personal opinion that people should not congregate with extended families for Thanksgiving. There have been outbreaks stemming from small gatherings, including weddings, churches, and birthday parties. The Governor believes a small Thanksgiving gathering could result in dozens of new cases.
  • MASKS IN SCHOOLS: In response to an inquiry from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, the State will allow local governments to impose mask mandates on students in schools

Read the press release

Here’s Why Coronavirus Infection Rates Are Rising as ‘Positivity’ Stays Stable

The Empire Center’s Bill Hammond writes that a growing disconnect between two coronavirus benchmarks – the positivity rate and the infection rate – is stirring confusion about New York’s pandemic outlook.

The first rate is staying relatively low and stable, and that’s the one primarily featured by Governor Cuomo in his daily status reports.  The second rate has doubled over the past month to its highest level since May – a clear sign that New York’s pandemic is far from fully controlled.

Read more from the Empire Center

Germany to Shut Restaurants, Bars to Combat Coronavirus Spread – France’s Macron Announces New National Lockdown Starting Friday

The premiers of Germany’s 16 states, which are in charge of pandemic management, agreed to shut restaurants, bars, fitness studios, concert halls and theaters from Nov. 2 as part of a plan to stop infections from climbing. Hotels will only be allowed to host business travelers until the end of the month. The premiers also decided to limit gatherings in public to 10 people from two households.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced a partial lockdown of France’s economy in a sign of how Europe’s strategy for containing the coronavirus has buckled under the pressure of mounting cases and deaths. Mr. Macron said he was ordering the closure of bars and restaurants, starting Friday, as part of an effort to apply a “brutal break” to the spread of the virus. “The new wave will be stronger and deadlier,” Mr. Macron said, adding that the virus was spreading faster “than even the most pessimistic forecasts.”

S&P 500, Dow Sink to Late-Sept Lows on Virus Woes

The S&P 500 and the Dow hit their lowest levels since late-September on Wednesday as coronavirus cases surged globally and fears of a contested U.S. presidential election next week added to worries. Shares of hotels, airlines and other companies sensitive to COVID-19-related curbs fell with Wynn Resorts down 3.6% and the S&P 1500 airlines index declining 3.4%. The energy index fell as oil prices tumbled on fears of lower fuel demand.

New cases and hospitalizations set records in the U.S. Midwest, while concerns rose over a national lockdown in France and tighter restrictions in Germany. A spiraling pandemic and a failure to reach a deal on a fresh round of U.S. fiscal stimulus before the Nov. 3 election have put the blue-chip Dow and the benchmark S&P 500 on track to erase their gains for October.

Read more at Reuters

Companies Plan to Continue Shifting Supply Chains Out of China

Companies plan to continue shifting supply chains out of China, regardless of who wins the Nov. 3 presidential election, according to Tim Ryan, the chair of PwC U.S.  The issue came into focus in response to President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, but it only gained importance across corporate America due to the coronavirus pandemic, Ryan said in a “Closing Bell” interview, drawing on findings from a recent survey conducted by the powerhouse accounting firm.

The beneficiaries of exits from China, home to the world’s second-largest economy, are likely to be countries in Southeast Asia, Mexico and the United States, according to Ryan.

Read more at CNBC

Boeing Sees Q3 Earnings Improvement But Warns on Layoffs 

Boeing (BA) on Wednesday reported narrower-than-expected losses and higher revenue during the third quarter, yet the dual crises stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and its idled 737 MAX flagship are likely to lead to deep layoffs, the company warned.

Here are key metrics from the report, versus what Wall Street was expecting, according to a consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg:

  • Revenue: $14.1 billion vs $13.84 billion expected
  • Adjusted loss per share: $1.39 cents vs $2.384 expected
  • GAAP share loss: 79 cents vs. $1.588 expected
  • Operating cash flow: -$4.82 billion

In its earnings report, the company said it continued to make “steady progress” on getting the flagship plane back in the air. Still, Boeing warned that efforts to reshape the company would lead to lower headcount, as the coronavirus and grounded plane “significantly impacted” the bottom line.

Read more a Yahoo Finance

Report: Job Seekers Change Careers, Relocate

Many job seekers are changing fields to obtain work, according to Challenger. This may stem from certain industries being economically impacted more than others, such as tourism. But adequate skill sets remain a hurdle. A May 28 survey by LiveCareer found that more than half (57%) of those recently unemployed could not identify transferable skills and 58% were unsure how to communicate transferable skills on a resume. About 58% of those surveyed said they lacked confidence in finding new jobs with their current skill sets. 

Read more at HR Dive


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Daily Briefing -178

NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

Governor Cuomo held a press briefing from Albany yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, October 25th. Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State are below.  

Here is a summary of positivity rates:

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.25%
  • Orange Hot Zone: 1.54%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 8.53%
  • Statewide: 1.45%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.18%

Here are some useful links:

“Mask Up” Campaign to Benefit COVID-19 Relief Efforts

New York is partnering in with The RealReal and dozens of New York fashion designers to launch “Mask Up” – a five-week campaign to benefit COVID-19 relief efforts and encourage everyone to wear masks. As a part of this campaign, there will be themed mask releases every Monday.  A limited edition “New York Tough” mask designed by the acclaimed New York fashion label Public School was released today as part of the campaign. Governor Cuomo’s daughter Mariah has been volunteering on this project.

Read the press release

Europe Imposes New Covid-19 Restrictions as Second Wave Accelerates

Daily confirmed infections in Europe, which overtook the U.S.’s daily detected infections during October, are threatening to overwhelm European countries’ capacity to test, trace and isolate virus carriers, leading authorities and health experts to warn that the pandemic could intensify. Governments are hoping that last-ditch measures such as curbs on socializing and nightlife can reduce contagion again without strangling Europe’s economic recovery.

France announced a daily record for coronavirus infections, with confirmed infections reaching over 52,000 on Sunday. Italy, struggling with an explosive rise in infections, imposed the toughest restrictions on its population since ending its lockdown, including the closure of all bars and restaurants at 6 p.m. In Spain, the government announced a state of emergency, as it did in March, giving national authorities greater powers to impose social-distancing and emergency health-care policies.

Read more in the WSJ

Monday Economic Report: State Job Creation, PMI, Conference Board Survey and More

Michigan created the most net new manufacturing jobs in September, adding 5,200 workers. Other states with notable employment growth for the month included Wisconsin (up 4,800), Maine (up 4,700), Florida (up 3,700), South Carolina (up 3,600), Georgia (up 3,300) and Ohio (up 3,100). Despite gains over the past five months, manufacturing employment figures continue to experience sizable declines due to COVID-19.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.7% in September, increasing for the fifth straight month but still 4.1% lower than pre-pandemic levels in February.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1026

Stocks Slide on Virus Rise, Fading Stimulus Hopes

U.S. stocks dropped sharply, with the Dow industrials down about 650 points, as coronavirus cases surged in America and Europe, adding to worries about the economic outlook after Congress and the White House failed to agree on a fiscal stimulus deal

Read more at the WSJ

Survey: COVID-19 Isn’t Cancelling the Holidays Season 

Consumers are expected to spend an average of $1,387 per household this season, with the pandemic shifting how and where consumers will shop, according to Deloitte’s 35th annual holiday retail survey released on Oct. 20. 

“In this season of uncertainty, price, value and convenience continue to be top considerations for consumers, as is the desire to get creative with how they celebrate the season with family, friends and pets, no matter the circumstances,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution leader

See the key findings at Material Handling and Logistics

Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Kun-hee Dies at 78

Samsung Electronics chairman Lee Kun-hee, who transformed the South Korean firm into a global tech titan, died at the age of 78 on Sunday, the company said. Under Lee’s leadership, Samsung rose to become the world’s largest producer of smartphones and memory chips, and the firm’s overall turnover today is equivalent to a fifth of South Korea’s GDP.

Samsung’s meteoric rise helped make Lee South Korea’s richest and most powerful industrialist.

Read more at IndustryWeek

The Hidden Costs of Working From Home

Nearly half of the American workforce recently entered their seventh straight month of working from home due to the coronavirus pandemic. As of June, 42 percent of American workers were working from home, while 26 percent of workers were reporting to work in person, according to Stanford University.

“Working from home has ups and downsides on costs,” Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom told NBC News. “Of course, you do have to pay more water and you do have to pay more electricity … On the other hand, you have to set that against you’ve saved a lot of money on commuting.”

Read more at NBC News

Survey: Pandemic Fueling Stress Among Workers

One quarter of workers have considered leaving their jobs due to pandemic-driven stress, according to a study by SAP and AP-NORC. The survey reveals 80% of respondents said they felt positively about their employer’s response to the pandemic.

A quarter of the people we spoke with said they were considering quitting their job, and there was not a big difference between those working remotely and those who had to leave the home to work. But employees who are still going into a workplace were more likely to say they experienced a higher amount of stress, she said.  In addition, the poll found that 28% of those surveyed have cut back on their hours, and 20% have had to take leave.

Read more at CNN



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Daily Briefing – 177

NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

Governor Cuomo held a press briefing via phone call yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday, October 24th.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State is below.  In addition to the COVID update the Governor also spoke about early voting and again called one the federal government to help the state with its budget challenges. 

Here is a summary of positivity rates:

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.10%
  • Orange Hot Zone: 1.21%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 2.78%
  • Statewide: 1.30%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.06%

Here are some useful links:

DiNapoli: Halfway Through the Year, Revenue Hole Persists

Halfway through the state’s fiscal year, state tax receipts are trailing last year by $2.8 billion, according to the September State Cash Report released by New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

State tax revenues totaled $8.8 billion in September, $922.3 million higher than the latest projections by the state Division of the Budget (DOB). Total tax revenues in September were a net $364.1 million higher than those in 2019, primarily due to a $440 million increase in personal income tax collections resulting partly from an additional day in September of withholding collections and lower refunds.

Read more at the controllers website

Jobless Claims Fall

Weekly initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 55,000 to a seasonally adjusted 787,000 in the week ended Oct. 17, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims for the prior two weeks were revised lower, reflecting new data from California. The revised level of claims for the week ended Oct. 3—767,000—was the lowest since the March 14 week, when less than 300,000 new claims were filed.

The number of people collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs, which cover most workers, decreased by 1 million to about 8.4 million for the week ended Oct. 10, also the lowest since March. That is consistent with many employers recalling workers furloughed earlier this year, and some, such as online retailers and logistics firms, adding staff.

Read more in the WSJ

Workers Who Lost jobs Because of COVID-19 Find New Careers in These Fields

As the health crisis continues to rage across the country and more temporary job losses become permanent, a small but growing number of laid-off and working Americans in hard-hit industries like restaurants, retail and travel are switching to new careers or occupations. Many are transitioning to sectors that have thrived during the pandemic, such as technology, health care, real estate, banking, and warehousing and delivery.

Sixty-three percent of workers who lost jobs because of the outbreak have changed their industry and 4% have changed their field or overall career path, according to a Harris Poll survey for USA TODAY. Community colleges haven’t seen much of an uptick in students due to social distancing, but enrollment in online skills courses such as web development and financial analysis are up significantly.

Read more at USA Today


AstraZeneca, J&J Resuming US Tests of COVID-19 Vaccines

The Food and Drug Administration has given AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson permission to resume Phase 3 trials of their respective covid-19 vaccines. Both drug makers had paused the process after participants fell ill. The FDA concluded that there was no evidence that the subjects’ illnesses were caused by the vaccines.

Read more at the AP

Can Employers Require Mandatory Vaccinations?

The discussion from Greenwald Doherty relates to flu vaccination issues, which may be instructive for when a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available. They do note that the circumstances, law, and guidance relating to a COVID-19 vaccine may be different than those that apply to flu vaccination and could compel a different analysis.

In industries where employees serve and interact with populations who are more susceptible to contracting the flu (such as healthcare or early education), employers are likely permitted to (or required to in some states) require flu vaccination. Employers outside of these industries, however, face the challenge to articulate the basis (other than the general intention to keep the workplace safe) of the need for such a policy.

Read more at Greenwald Doherty

Survey of Supply Chain Pros Reveals Biggest Pandemic Concerns

According to a new survey by Supplyframe, 32% of surveyed supply chain professionals who work at North American medical supply companies anticipate it will take six to 12 months for global supply chains to return to full capacity for vaccine distribution.

A majority of respondents were concerned with how U.S.-China relations might impact supply chains: specifically, 82% worried that tariffs with China could impact the availability of personal protective equipment and medical devices, and 26% said medical gear will be more difficult to source. A fifth of respondents anticipate continued product shortages, and 30% said U.S. manufacturing capacity needs to be higher.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Cuomo: Eight Additional NYS Companies to Start Producing COVID-19 Related Equipment and Supplies to Support In-State Needs

Governor Cuomo Friday announced that eight additional State companies have received support from New York to produce needed supplies to help combat the COVID-19 pandemic. These grant funds will help alleviate product shortages due to supply chain issues that could lead to unfair pricing practices. These companies will also increase the State’s manufacturing capacity while creating new jobs and market opportunities. To date, more than $16 million in grants have been awarded to 28 qualifying New York-based companies to retool their business lines and pivot to manufacturing vital supplies for ongoing response and recovery efforts.

Read more and see the recipients

“Glocalisation” Opportunity Out of Crisis in Asia

While globalization may be under threat, so-called glocalisation looks set to resurge. In essence, to be “glocal” means making the most of both global and local resources—creating standalone ecosystems in individual markets.

By many accounts, the advent of COVID-19 promises to accelerate an end to the globalized world taken for granted in the 21st century. Boston Consulting Group (BCG), for example, forecasts global trade to drop by 20% in 2020 and doesn’t expect trade to return to the US$18trn recorded in 2019 until 2023. With supply chains thrown into chaos, countries are turning their gaze inwards with a new appreciation for self-sufficiency. Symbolic of this shift, the world’s two largest economies appear to be on a path to decouple their economies and technology ecosystems.

Read more at The Economist Intelligence Unit

Deeper Dive: Should Covid Be Left to Spread Among the Young and Healthy?

As new waves of covid-19 sweep the world, lockdowns are back in fashion. This time, though, they are a harder sell. They certainly save lives. But it is now clear that the lost jobs, the disruption to education and medical services, and the harm to mental health that they cause all exact tolls of their own—and these are paid not just in misery, but in deaths. Systems of “test and trace”, intended to stop those exposed to the virus from passing it on, seem to have worked in some places, but not in others.

In the absence of a vaccine, or of effective drug treatments, the question of how much longer this can go on for is thus being asked more insistently. And on October 4th a trio of public-health experts from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford universities put out a petition calling on governments to change course in a radical way.

Read more in The Economist


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Daily Briefing – 176

NYS COVID and Micro Cluster Update

Governor Cuomo issued a press release providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Wednesday, October 21th.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.20%
  • Orange Hot Zone: 5.32%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 2.02%
  • Statewide: 1.20%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 0.96%
Here are some useful links:

New York’s Cluster Update: Frequently Asked Questions

This week has brought some major changes to New York’s cluster action initiative. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has released guidance about how cluster zones are designated and how the cluster zone designation may be changed. Further, the Governor has updated the already-existing cluster zones and added new cluster zones. Bond Schoeneck and King attorneys discuss frequently asked questions about the clusters and updated maps for the cluster zones.

Read more at BSK

Talks Continue on Relief Package, Doubts Remain

Negotiators on both sides of the House pledged to continue talks to provide further coronavirus relief measures, despite opposition to the move from Senate Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has urged the White House to avoid reaching a deal before the election, while other Republican voices in the Senate played down the prospects for an agreement.

Read the full Story at CNN

Vaccine Trials Near Finish Line

In just a few weeks, we will begin to see results from late-stage trials for possible COVID-19 vaccines, A Amid all the challenges and chaos of the U.S. pandemic response, the vaccine development process has actually been relatively quick and smooth. Biopharmaceutical manufacturers and scientists have managed to move forward at an unprecedented speed, largely keeping politics out of the process and maintaining confidence in the eventual results. Ultimately, six different vaccine candidates have so far been developed, tested and scaled on a timeline that had previously been unthinkable.

Today, independent advisers to the Food and Drug Administration will meet to have their first formal discussion about whether and how they will recommend specific vaccines for use by the public. Those decisions will take place after the vaccine candidates complete their late-stage trials and are submitted for approval. The next big challenge—assuming at least one of the vaccine candidates is deemed successful—will be producing the astronomical number of vaccine doses that will be needed to inoculate the public in the United States and around the globe.

Read more at the Washington Post (subscription) 

Chappaqua’s Ishana Kumar, 12, Wins Top Award For Research Into ‘Imaginary Colors’

Ishana Kumar, 12, from Chappaqua, New York, won the coveted $25,000 Samueli Foundation Prize, the top award in the Broadcom MASTERS®, the nation’s premier science and engineering competition for middle school students.

Through her project, Ishana investigated whether retinal fatigue changes our perception of “imaginary colors,” an illusion of color most commonly seen from a spinning black and white disk, called a Benham’s disk. She had her subjects look at the Benham’s disk, and then stare at a red, blue or green light. Next, her subjects stared back at Benham’s disk, and determined whether the imaginary colors changed as a result of retinal fatigue, the phenomenon that occurs when someone stares at a brightly lit, colored area for a while. Ishana’s research could lead to a better understanding of eye disease, our neural pathways as well as both color and cognitive processing.

Listen to the story at NPR

Coronavirus Threatens to Push the Child-Care Industry Over the Edge

The coronavirus pandemic has plunged U.S. day cares into a financial crisis.  Child-care centers across the country—big chains, tiny in-home operations, nonprofits—are teetering. Enrollment slumped in the spring and never fully recovered. Extra expenses, like protective gear and deep cleaning, are piling up. By some estimates, some 40% of U.S. day cares are closed. Many of those that are open have half the number of children they did.

Lawmakers and economists are warning that many child-care providers will fail without government help. If that happens, parents who struggled to find a day-care slot before the pandemic would have to compete for even fewer spaces when it is over. Already, the pandemic is forcing many mothers out of the workforce, a decision likely to hurt their career prospects for years. And if parents can’t work, the economy can’t flourish.

Read more in the WSJ

SLC 2020 Q&A:  How Amazon Manages Risk with Better and Faster Data

Heather MacDougall, Amazon worldwide vice president of workplace health and safety, will speak at the at the 2020 Safety Leadership Conference, which takes place Nov. 10-12 virtually. She will discuss how Amazon is leveraging technology to keep workers at a growing network of fulfillment centers safe while meeting customer demand.

MacDougall previews her session, “Safety Technology: Using Innovation to Solve Challenges and Drive Improvement,” in a Q&A with EHS Today.

Read the Q&A at EHS Today

America After Covid: What Demographics Tell Us

The pre-pandemic migration from large American cities to the suburbs and small towns is continuing, write demographers Wendell Cox and Joel Kotkin. The most expensive cities, such as New York, will continue to be attractive but will also face competition from less expensive alternatives around the country, they argue.

Read the full story at Chief Executive online


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Daily Briefing – 175

NYS Micro Cluster and Covid Update

At a briefing for reporters yesterday Governor Cuomo provided an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Tuesday, October 20th.  The “micro-cluster” initiative seeks to detect small outbreaks and contain them within a geographic area, with buffer zones with fewer restrictions to monitor the spread from “micro-clusters”. The State has placed restrictions on social and economic activities within “micro-clusters” based on the extent of COVID-19 spread. A “red zone” is an area with the highest positivity rates, an “orange zone” is the area immediately surrounding the “red zone,” and a “yellow zone” is an area surrounding the “orange zone.”
The initiative began fourteen days ago, during which time the NYSDOH has studied the data to determine whether “micro-cluster” areas have successfully reduced viral spread to a level where restrictions can be eased. New York will begin to adjust zones based on the following metrics:
  • To exit a “red zone”: under 3% after 10 days (4% in less populated areas)
  • To exit an “orange zone”: under 2% after 10 days (3% in less populated areas)
  • To exit a “yellow zone”: under 1.5% after 10 days (2% in less populated areas)
  • Additional considerations include hospitalization trends, source of new cases, local government enforcement efforts, and community cooperation.
Tracking data for the clusters and the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 Cluster zip codes: 6.61%
  • Orange Red Zone (10 Day Average): 4.20%
  • Rockland Red Zone (10 Day Average): 4.80%
  • Statewide: 1.62%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.42%
Here are some useful links:

Some Further Details on the  New York Paid Sick Leave Law Guidance from Harris Beach

On the Monday New York State released long-anticipated guidance on the state’s new Paid Sick Leave Law, or “PSL.” The new law is not limited to coronavirus-related situations. It is instead a new, permanent sick leave mandate for almost all businesses and non-profit employers in New York State. The guidance is available here.

The law functionally goes into effect on January 1, 2021. On that date, employees may start using Paid Sick Leave. As of September 30, however, employees were to begin “accruing” Paid Sick Leave at a rate of 1 hour of leave for every 30 hours worked. Employers should keep track of how much leave their employees will have accrued as of January 1. Alternatively, employers may choose to “frontload” employees’ Sick Leave allotment at the beginning of the year.

Read more from Harris Beach 

Coronavirus Stimulus Talks Make Progress 

White House and Democratic negotiators said they would press ahead with efforts to reach a sweeping coronavirus relief deal after making progress Tuesday, even as the prospect of a roughly $2 trillion package sparked opposition from Senate Republicans.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) had indicated that she hoped to pin the White House down on enough issues by the end of the day Tuesday to be able to determine whether a deal could be passed before the Nov. 3 election. After Tuesday’s discussion, both sides said they were willing to continue their discussions without decisively establishing whether a deal will be possible.

Read more in the WSJ

Meanwhile… The Senate Takes Up $500 Billion Package

The Republican-controlled Senate on Wednesday will take up a $500 billion COVID-19 stimulus package, a bill unlikely to make it out of the Senate as relief negotiations drag on less than two weeks before Election Day.

The bill would give a federal boost to weekly unemployment benefits, send over $100 billion to schools, and allocate funding for testing and vaccine development. Democrats are expected to block the legislation, arguing more money is needed to combat the virus and help Americans.  Its $500 billion price tag is far less than the roughly $1.8 trillion package the White House has offered and the $2.2 trillion package Democrats have backed. The two parties have spent months attempting to find a bipartisan agreement for one last batch of coronavirus stimulus relief before the election. 

Read more in USA Today

Single-Family Homebuilding Increases

U.S. single-family homebuilding raced to a more than 13-year high in September, cementing the housing market’s status as the star of the economic recovery amid record-low mortgage rates and a migration to the suburbs and low-density areas in search of more room for home offices and schooling.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed building permits and housing completions scaling levels last seen in 2007. That could help to ease an acute shortage of homes for sale, which has fueled house price inflation.  The data reinforced expectations that the economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter after suffering its deepest contraction in at least 73 years in the second quarter.

Read More are Reuters

Meanwhile… Mortgage Demand Falls for the Fourth Straight Week

Homebuyer demand is incredibly strong compared with last year, but there appears to be a slight pullback this month.  A drop in buyer demand caused total mortgage application volume to fall 0.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

Applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week, the fourth straight week of declines. Purchase demand is down nearly 7% compared with four weeks ago. Volume, however, is still 26% higher than one year ago. The drop may be seasonal, although not much has conformed to normal patterns in the year of Covid-19. It may be more a factor of the incredibly low supply of homes for sale. Inventory continues to set record lows, especially at the entry level of the market.

Read more at CNBC

DOD Researchers Collaborate on Universal Antibody Test for COVID-19

Researchers from the U.S. Army Futures Command, in collaboration with Houston Methodist, Pennsylvania State University, and UT Austin, tested alternative ways to measure COVID-19 antibody level resulting in a process that is faster, easier and less expensive to use on a large scale. Their method holds promise for accurately identifying potential donors who have the best chance of helping infected patients through convalescent plasma therapy.

Read more at Global Biodefense

How Pfizer Plans to Distribute Coronavirus Vaccines

Pfizer has spent roughly $2 billion developing a coronavirus vaccine and is setting up its logistics network to ensure speedy distribution if the vaccine receives authorization. The drugmaker’s logistics plan involves reusable frozen containers, along with cargo planes and trucks to handle the delivery of up to 100 million doses this year and 1.3 billion next year.

Read the full story at the WSJ

Big Ten Football, The Midwest and COVID-19

With the first Big Ten football games scheduled for this weekend, Johns Hopkins looks at the current state of the COVID-19 epidemic in these states compared to where they were on August 11 when the season was originally put on hold. In mid-August, most of the states that are home to Big Ten Schools were beginning to come down from the peak of their respective summer COVID-19 surges. Since that time, however, nearly every one of these states has reported increased COVID-19 incidence.

Notably, all except Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have reported new record high daily incidence since the first announcement in August. Additionally, Wisconsin and Nebraska are currently reporting higher per capita daily incidence than New Jersey did at its first peak in April. Most of the Big Ten states are also reporting increased test positivity since August. 

Read More at Johns Hopkins


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Daily Briefing – 174

Two States added to Restricted States List, Non-Essential Between Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania Discouraged

Governor Cuomo yesterday announced that Arizona and Maryland have been added to New York’s COVID-19 travel advisory. No areas have been removed. 43 states meet the criteria for requiring individuals who have traveled to New York to quarantine for 14 days. The quarantine applies to any person arriving from an area with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or an area with a 10 percent or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average. 

Neighboring states Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania now meet the criteria for the travel advisory, however, given the interconnected nature of the region and mode of transport between us, a quarantine on these states is not practically viable. That said, New York State highly discourages, to the extent practical, non-essential travel to and from these states while they meet the travel advisory criteria. 

Cuomo: “Hot Spot” Numbers Improve

At a briefing for reporters yesterday Governor Cuomo provided an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Monday, October 19th.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 2.9%
  • Orange Hot Zone: 6.00%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 1.99%
  • Statewide: 1.3%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.2%
Here are some useful links:

In Advance of “Deadline” Pelosi and Mnuchin Make Progress in Stimulus Talks

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made progress in their latest coronavirus stimulus talks Monday as time runs short to reach a deal before the 2020 election.

In a nearly one-hour phone call, the pair “continued to narrow their differences,” the California Democrat’s spokesman, Drew Hammill, said in a tweeted statement. Pelosi has directed House committee chairs to work to resolve areas of disagreement with the White House, and the speaker and Mnuchin plan to talk again Tuesday, Hammill added.

Read more at CNBC

NYS Paid Sick Leave Guidance and FAQ

The New York State Department of Labor has released guidelines and FAQs for the paid sick leave law enacted earlier this year. The guidance addresses several issues including: the amount of leave employees are eligible to receive, accrual calculations, employee eligibility to participate in the program, permitted uses for paid leave, existing employer programs, and retaliation against employees for use of paid sick leave.

All private-sector employees in New York State are covered, regardless of industry, occupation, part-time status, and overtime exempt status. Federal, state, and local government employees are not covered, but employees of charter schools, private schools, and not-for-profit corporations are covered.

OSHA Announces $1,222,156 In Coronavirus Violations

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic through Oct. 8, 2020, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has cited 85 establishments for violations relating to coronavirus, resulting in proposed penalties totaling $1,222,156.

OSHA inspections have resulted in the agency citing employers for violations, including failures to:


Atlanta Fed’s Bostic Says Recovery Threatened By Permanent Layoffs

It will be a while before the U.S. economy is fully recovered and before the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or remove the support it is providing financial markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Monday.

“On balance, I am comfortable with our current policy stance,” Bostic said in remarks prepared for a virtual event organized for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Annual Meeting. “As I have detailed today, though the U.S. economy continues to show clear signs of recovery, there remain significant portions where the recovery has been weak or nonexistent.”

Read more at Reuters

New York’s Private Jobs Rebound Still Trails Most of U.S.

The Empire Center’s E.J. McMahon reports that as of September, New York’s private job count was down 12.1 percent from the same month in 2019, based on non-seasonally adjusted BLS and state Labor Department data.

The Empire State’s year-to-year decrease was almost double the national decline of 6.9 percent. Only one other state—tourism-intensive Hawaii—was further below its 2019 employment level, with a decline of 21.5 percent. As shown on the map in the article, Alaska and Vermont were the only other states with double-digit percentage declines in employment on a year-to-year basis.

Read more from the Empire Center

CDC Releases New COVID-19 Vaccine Specific Web Content

The CDC has added vaccine-specific content to its COVID-19 website. CDC’s new resources include information on vaccination planning, how vaccine safety is being ensured, and frequently asked questions. These resources are intended to clarify how COVID-19 vaccine recommendations will be made and how the vaccines will be monitored for safety, in order to build trust and confidence in future COVID-19 vaccines.

The CDC anticipates making frequent updates to this website, as well as CDC’s Vaccination and Immunization website, as more information becomes available and as vaccines become authorized or approved and recommended for use in the United States.

Read more at NACCHO 

DOD, HHS Name Partners to Administer COVID-19 Vaccines in Long-Term Care Facilities

Last Friday, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) named Walgreens and CVS as nationwide partners in the effort. Long-term care facilities will be able to sign up to have either CVS or Walgreens come to their locations to administer COVID-19 vaccinations to residents and staff. The program is free of charge to facilities, and is opt-in only.

“We are not imposing the solution on any nursing home,” Mango said. “This is voluntary, they have to opt in. This is an adjunct to what other solutions may be, but this will be something that will be available to every nursing home and senior living facility in the country.”

Read more at the DOD

GM Announces $2 Billion to Retrofit Tennessee Plant for Electric Cadillac

Spring Hill Manufacturing in Tennessee will join General Motor Co.’s Michigan plants in Detroit-Hamtramck and Orion Township as the company’s third electric vehicle plant. In a statement released October 20, GM said it would invest $2 billion in Spring Hill and a combined $152.5 million of investments on plants in Michigan.

The Spring Hill Assembly Plant, which currently produces two Cadillacs, will add a third to its production, the electric Cadillac Lyriq. The factory will build both the traditional XT6 and XT5 Cadillacs in addition to the new electric luxury model. According to GM, the renovation work at Spring Hill will include comprehensive upgrades to general assembly and major expansions of the paint and body shops, which will “begin immediately.”

Read more in IndustryWeek


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Daily Briefing – 173

Who Will be First in Line for the Vaccine?

Healthcare workers who treat patients, nursing home staff and their most vulnerable residents would be first in line for coronavirus vaccines under a preliminary plan released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo Sunday.

Police officers, firefighters, teachers, grocery workers, transit employers and other public health workers come next.  Seniors are in the third group, though those with any comorbidity — such as diabetes or pulmonary disease — would move up in the line. Healthy adults and children would be at the end.

This prioritization list is a draft, and it comes weeks if not months before any vaccine is ready for public dissemination.

NYS COVID-19 Numbers and Cluster Initiative Update

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, October 18th.  Tracking data for the hotspots and the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.3%
  • Orange Hot Zone: 1.35%
  • Rockland Hot Zone: 2.68
  • Statewide: 1.2%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.1%
Here are some useful links:

Time for NYS Employers to Post Election Notices

Greenwald Doherty reminds us that New York employers are required to post the required election rights notice at least 10 working days before Election Day. For the upcoming November 3, 2020 election, this means that employers with a 5-day (Monday through Friday) workweek should post this notice by tomorrow, October 20, 2020. The notice can be found here. Employers with remote employees should consider how they will provide the required notice.

The notice can be found here

Will a Stimulus Deal be Struck by Tuesday? Negotiations Continue

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set a Tuesday (Today) deadline for both sides to come together to restore urgently needed benefits before Election Day. Both sides are struggling to cut a deal just weeks before the election, with Democrats and Republicans hundreds of billions of dollars apart in their proposals and unable to resolve major policy differences on COVID-19 testing, child tax credit provisions, and funding for state and local governments.

After months of negotiations, Democrats and Republicans remain billions of dollars apart in their proposals. Democrats want about $2.2 trillion in funding, and the White House has proposed about $1.8 trillion. Senate Republicans, on the other hand, are set to act on a $500 billion plan Wednesday. Trump, for his part, has said he wants more funding than Democrats are offering. 

Read more at USA Today

Monday Economic Report: Start-Ups, Mfg Production and Capacity Utilization

Total new business applications soared from 883,018 in the second quarter to 1,566,373 in the third quarter. This suggests that the number of employer business formations jumped sharply, with Americans likely pursuing entrepreneurial ventures as a means of supplementing their income, especially in a challenging economy and labor market.

Manufacturing production declined 0.3% in September. This suggests that production slowed after progress over the past four months following the 20.1% decline in manufacturing production experienced between February and April due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite progress in recent months, output remained 6.4% below the pre-pandemic pace in February. Meanwhile manufacturing capacity utilization edged down from 70.7% in August to 70.5% in September. For comparison purposes, it registered 75.2% in February

Monday Economic Report 2020-1019

“Ambiguous” That Is the Likely Result When COVID-19 Vaccine Makers Release Early Data 

Five vaccines—from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, and Novavax—have already begun or are beginning Phase III trials that seek to recruit tens of thousands of volunteers in the U.S.

With the FDA’s two months of required safety data, mid-November is the earliest companies might seek emergency approval for a COVID-19 vaccine, assuming the required number of infections is met. The interim data in a small number of people may or may not offer clear results, but the bigger picture is worth keeping in mind: Many, many candidates are in the pipeline. The first vaccine will make news, but it might not be the most effective, the easiest to deploy, or ultimately even the most widely used.

Read more in The Atlantic

Global Steel Recovery is Underway, But Slow and Uneven

The World Steel Association issued an updated semi-annual Short Range Outlook for 2020 and 2021, and now predicts that that steel demand will drop by -2.4% year-over-year for the current year, to 1.725 billion metric tons. For 2021, the group foresees steel demand then recovering 4.1% year-over-year, to 1,795.1 million metric tons.

Although the 2020 output has been significantly reduced by “lockdowns” imposed to contain the pandemic, the new forecast assumes that nationwide lockdowns will not be repeated but that selective and targeted measures will be able to contain the “second wave” of the pandemic.

Read more at American Machinist

Flexible Working is Changing Workers’ Relationship With Time

Bartleby writes in The Economist that two hundred years ago, a device began to dominate the world of work. No, not the steam engine—the gadget was the clock. With the arrival of the factory, people were paid on the basis of how many hours they worked, rather than their material output. In the “putting out” system that prevailed before the factory era, merchants would deliver cloth to be woven, spun, stitched or cut to a worker’s home. Each worker would then be paid for the items they produced.

The clock’s authoritarian rule may at last be weakening. Remote working has brought a greater degree of freedom. A survey of 4,700 home-workers across six countries commissioned by Slack, a corporate-messaging firm, found that flexible working was viewed very positively, improving both people’s work-life balance and productivity. Flexible workers even scored more highly on a sense of “belonging” to their organization than those on a nine-to-five schedule.

Read more at The Economist


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Daily Briefing – 172

Cuomo Outlines New Micro-Cluster Strategy to Tackle COVID-19 Hot Spots – Numbers for Covid and Clusters

The micro-cluster strategy is predicated on three principles: refined detection, specific and calibrated mitigation, and focused enforcement.  There are currently “micro-clusters” in Brooklyn and Queens, as well as Rockland and Orange Counties. 

Using New York State’s approach to track cases by address with the help of nation-leading levels of testing, the State will identify outbreaks and implement mitigation measures tailored to the precise areas where outbreaks occur. The State will implement rules and restrictions directly targeted to areas with the highest concentration of COVID cases, known as red zones, and put in place less severe restrictions in surrounding communities, known as orange and yellow zones that serve as a buffer to ensure the virus does not spread beyond the central focus area. Enhanced focused testing and enforcement will follow.

Read the press release

Here are the positivity rates from 10/17

  • Summary of positivity rates:20 hotspot zip codes: 3.19%
  • Orange Red Zone: 1.04%
  • Rockland Red Zone: 2.22%
  • Statewide: 1.08%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 100%

Here are some other useful links

Movie Theaters Outside of NYC Can Reopen October 23, Ski Centers Can Reopen this Season Too

Governor Cuomo announced that theaters in counties outside of NYC with positivity rates of less than 2% can reopen at 25% capacity, with no more than 50 people per screen.  Governor Cuomo also announced that ski resorts can reopen beginning November 6th with 50 percent indoor capacity and strict compliance with state health and safety protocols.

Fed: US Manufacturing Output Dips in September, August Number Revised Up

The Federal Reserve reported U.S. factory production unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting that manufacturing’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was slowing heading into the fourth quarter.

Manufacturing production dropped 0.3% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Data for August was revised up to show to output at factories increasing 1.2% instead of 1.0% as previously reported. Factory production remains 6.4% below its pre-pandemic level. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast manufacturing output would rise 0.7% in September.

Read more at Reuters

NY Fed Survey: Businesses Anticipate Modest Price Increases in Year Ahead

Supplementary questions to the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Business Leaders Survey focused on recent and expected changes in the prices paid by firms and in the prices they receive. Businesses were also asked for their estimate of overall inflation (as measured by the consumer price index, or CPI) over the next year. Some of these questions had been asked in surveys conducted in December 2019 and earlier.

In the current survey manufacturers reported an average rise of 3.6 percent over the past year and expect the rate to accelerate slightly to 3.9 percent over the next twelve months. In addition to these point estimates, respondents were also asked to gauge the likelihood that the prices they paid overall would increase or decrease within certain specified ranges. The average respondent reported a roughly two in three chance that the prices they paid would rise by 8 percent or less. Price hikes of 2-8 percent were seen as more likely than increases of 0-2 percent. Service firms, on average, reported that declines
in prices paid were more likely than increases of 8 percent or more, while manufacturers indicated the reverse.

Read the full report

U.S. Retail Spending Picked Up Strongly in September

Retail sales increased in September for the fifth month in a row, as consumers prepared for further months of working and studying from home by spending strongly on vehicles, sporting goods and at home-improvement stores. Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday.

“These are really blowout numbers, said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a consulting firm.

Read more at the WSJ

Pfizer Plans to Seek Authorization for COVID-19 Vaccine in November

Pfizer confirmed Friday it expects to seek emergency authorization of its experimental vaccine against Covid-19, if it is effective, in the third week of November.

An analysis of the efficacy of the vaccine could be available sooner, the company said in an open letter from its CEO, Albert Bourla, but required safety data will take longer. The timelines included in the letter are not new, based on disclosures the company has previously made about the status of its vaccine effort with the German biotechnology firm BioNTech. But the need for Bourla, who had previously said a vaccine could be available by October, to make a public announcement emphasizes the tense political conditions surrounding the race for a vaccine.

Read more at Statnews

Hudson Valley Region September Job Numbers

The September 2020 over-the-year job losses continue to reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.  At 727,200, private sector job count has reached its lowest September level since 2010.  Meanwhile, the over-the-month change – a gain of 5,700, reflects the reopening of the economy.  The historical average over-the-month change between August and September is a loss of 3,000.

For the 12-month period ending September 2020, the private sector job count in the Hudson Valley fell by 86,600, or 10.6 percent, to 727,200.  Job losses were centered in leisure and hospitality (-33,600), trade, transportation and utilities (-14,500), professional and business services (-10,600), educational and health services (-9,200), other services (-8,600), natural resources, mining and construction (-5,100), manufacturing (-3,800), and financial activities (-1,000).

There were 39,300 manufacturing Jobs in the Valley in September 2020 down 3,800 from September 2019 and 100 from the previous month 

Labor Market Profile Hudson Valley SEP 2020

DiNapoli: New York State Ranks Second Nationally in Jobs Lost

While all states have lost employment since the COVID-19 pandemic struck earlier this year, the average state experienced job losses of 7.6 % during the pandemic, New York lost 12.8%.  New York surpasses almost every other state in both number and percentage of job losses. From February through August 2020, the Empire State ranks second to Hawaii in percentage of employment decline and second only to California in the total number. During that same period, unemployment in the State rose from 3.7 percent to 12.5 percent, based on preliminary estimates.

Read more at the Controller’s website  

The Reasons Behind America’s New Wave of Lay-Offs

The jobs picture is likely to get worse before it gets better. The pandemic is the proximate cause, but the deeper driver is bosses preparing for a new economy. David Garfield of AlixPartners, an advisory firm, reckons if companies must make do with only 70-90% of historical sales, as may happen with an anemic recovery, they cannot survive without “major restructuring”. Mr. Garfield believes firms must reduce complexity if they want to build resilience into supply and distribution networks. 

Bain, another consultancy, sees American companies “retooling for the new normal” by ploughing $5trn-10trn over the next decade into automation. This may kill old-fashioned jobs in the short term, but create new, tech-savvy ones over time.  “This is your moment to strike as chief executive if you want a dramatic change in market share,” says Hernan Saenz of Bain.

Read more in The Economist

China’s Economy Accelerates – GDP Plus 4.9 Percent

Growth in the world’s second-largest economy accelerated to 4.9% over a year earlier in the three months ending in September, up from the previous quarter’s 3.2%, official data showed Monday. Retail spending rebounded to above pre-virus levels for the first time and factory output rose, boosted by demand for exports of masks and other medical supplies.

China is the only major economy that is expected to grow this year while activity in the United States, Europe and Japan shrinks.  The recovery is “broadening out and becoming less reliant” on government stimulus, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report. He said growth is “still accelerating” heading into the present quarter.

Read more at the AP


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Daily Briefing – 171

NYS COVID-19 Numbers and Cluster Initiative Update

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Wednesday, October 14th.  Within the “Red Zone” focus areas, 3,473 test results were reported yesterday, yielding 168 positives or a 4.84 percent positivity rate. In the remainder of the state, not counting these “Red Zone” focus areas, 129,739 test results were reported, yielding 1,292 positives or a 0.99 percent positivity rate. The state’s overall positivity rate is 1.09 percent with focus areas included. Tracking data for the hotspots as compared to the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 4.84%
  • Orange Red Zone: 7.95%
  • Rockland Red Zone: 8.40%
  • Statewide: 1.09%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 0.99%

There were 131 positive results from data collected at 111 schools yesterday. In New York City there were 38 positive results.  Here are some useful links

Jobless Claims: 898,000 Americans Filed New Unemployment Claims Last Week

U.S. states saw another 898,000 Americans file first-time unemployment insurance claims last week, representing an unexpected rise in new claims with the pandemic still under way and another round of fiscal stimulus still out of reach.  The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) released its weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to Bloomberg estimates:

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 10 – 898,000 vs. 825,000 expected and 845,000 during the prior week.
  • Continuing jobless claims, week ended Oct. 3 – 10.018 million vs. 10.550 million expected and 11.183 million during the prior week.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

White House Agrees to Democrats’ Testing Strategy – Move Opens Way for Larger Stimulus Deal

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday the administration was prepared to meet Democrats’ demands for a national coronavirus-testing strategy as part of a larger economic-relief package.

An agreement over a national testing plan would remove one of the biggest, but not the only, concern Democrats had raised last weekend with the White House’s latest $1.88 trillion proposal. It could clear a path for Mrs. Pelosi to reach an agreement with President Trump less than three weeks before the presidential election.

Read more in the WSJ

Producer Prices Rise 0.4 Percent

U.S. producer prices increased in September, fueled by a rise in hotel and motel prices and a more modest jump in the price of iron and steel scrap. According to the Labor Department report, “The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.3% in August. A 0.4% increase in the cost of services accounted for nearly two-thirds of the gain in the PPI last month. Services increased 0.5% in August. . . . Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would gain 0.2% in September and rise 0.2% on a year-on-year basis.”

NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray had this to say about the new report: “The bottom line is that inflation remains largely in check for raw material costs, even as producer prices have risen in recent months. Given the deflationary pressures seen in the economy in the spring, it should not be a surprise that prices would bounce back strongly. Yet, core inflation has remained below 2% for 15 straight months.”

Read more at Reuters

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Grew Modestly in October

Manufacturing activity in New York State grew modestly in October. The general business conditions index fell seven points to 10.5, its fourth consecutive positive reading. Thirty-six percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 25 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed five points to 12.3, and the shipments index rose four points to 17.8, indicating ongoing gains in orders and shipments. Delivery times were little changed, while unfilled orders and inventories declined.

The index for number of employees moved up five points to 7.2, indicating that employment levels grew. The average workweek index rose nine points to 16.1, a multi-year high, signaling a significant increase in hours worked.

Read more

NY Fed Study: COVID-19 Has Temporarily Supercharged China’s Export Machine

China’s export performance this year has been stronger than expected. After a sharp slump at the beginning of 2020, the country’s exports have posted positive growth—the only major economy’s to do so. However, a closer look at the data reveals that this growth has not been very broad-based, but rather concentrated in areas where China’s export structure was well-positioned to take advantage of the global crisis—namely, production of medical supplies and school-from-home and work-from-home (S/WFH) goods.

Read more at the NY Fed Blog

EU and Eurozone Industrial Production Edged Higher in August

Industrial Production Up By 0.7% In Euro Area and 1.0% In EU, Down by 7.2% and 6.2% compared with August 2019.

New figures from Eurostat suggested that Europe’s manufacturing rebound was running out of steam even before covid-19 infection rates began to increase in recent weeks. Industrial production in the euro area rose in August by a lower-than-expected 0.7% month-on-month. And output is still down by 7.2% compared with the same month in 2019.

Read the EuroStat press release

Boeing’s Q3 Deliveries Show Scope of Its Problems

The 737 MAX crisis may end soon, but the Covid-19 pandemic is beginning to show how falling demand for new aircraft is affecting manufacturing activity.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes delivered 28 new aircraft during the July-September period, compared to 62 delivered for Q3 2019.  Boeing’s Q3 orders for military aircraft totaled 37 (including new and remanufactured AH-64 Apache helicopters, new and remanufactured CH 47 Chinook helicopters, F/A-18 Models, P-8 Models, and KC-46 tankers.) This compares to 120 military aircraft orders received during Q3 2019.

Read more at American Machinist


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Daily Briefing – 170

Cuomo Announces State Will Withhold Funds for Localities and Schools That Fail to Enforce Public Health Law

Governor Cuomo  announced yesterday that the State will withhold funds for localities and schools in COVID-19 cluster zones that fail to enforce public health laws. The New York State Department of Health will send a letter warning local governments in cluster zones that they will lose state funding if they fail to enforce state limits on gatherings and the closure of schools. The letter will be sent to New York City, Orange County, Rockland County, the Town of Ramapo and the Village of Spring Valley.

Governor Cuomo also announced that DOH will send an additional letter warning public and private schools in cluster zones that they will lose state funding if they do not comply with state requirements on closure and testing.

Read the press release

NYS COVID-19 Numbers and Cluster Initiative Update

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, October 12th.  Within the “Red Zone” focus areas, 4,138 test results were reported yesterday, yielding 171 positives or a 4.13 percent positivity rate. In the remainder of the state, not counting these “Red Zone” focus areas, 94,932 test results were reported, yielding 1,222 positives or a 1.2 percent positivity rate. Tracking data for the hotspots as compared to the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.70%
  • Orange 10950: 3.51%
  • Statewide: 1.12%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.05%
Here are some useful links

Consumer Prices Rise

The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month, after gaining 0.4% in August, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Prices for used cars and trucks rose 6.7% in September after a 5.4% gain in August and are now up 10.3% in the past 12 months. The September increase is the largest monthly increase since February 1969.

Overall inflation for the last 12 months is up 1.4% while core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is up 1.7%.

Read more from the Associate Press


IMF Revises its 2020 Global GDP Forecast Higher, 2021 Lower

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday turned slightly more positive on the global economy for this year, but warned of a “long, uneven and uncertain” recovery.  The global economy is now projected to contract by 4.4% in 2020 — an upward revision from an estimate of -4.9% made in June (which has now also been revised to -5.2% due to a new methodology used by the IMF). The IMF’s forecast assumes that social distancing due to the coronavirus pandemic will continue into 2021, and that local transmission will fall everywhere by the end of 2022.

The IMF projected “only limited progress” going forward and cut its gross domestic product growth expectations for next year to 5.2%, from an estimate of 5.4% made in June.

Read more at CNBC

Global Study Shows What Workers Want, Expect and Value in Their Employers

According to a new survey, , “Hindsight 2020: COVID-19 Concerns into 2021, 35% of employees and business leaders wish their offices had closed faster and safety measures for essential workers had been implemented sooner. Still, 20% of surveyed workers felt their organization met their needs.

The Workforce Institute commissioned the survey, which Savanta, Inc. conducted in June 2020. A total of 3,903 employees and business leaders between the ages of 18 and 55 responded to general questions about leadership, employee attitudes around trust and crisis response/management from 11 countries: Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States.

Read the story and key findings from the survey at EHS Today

Gender Employment Gap Widens with Start of Virtual School Year

Women dropped out of the labor force in staggeringly high numbers last month, underscoring how female workers have disproportionately borne the economic brunt of the pandemic, in large part because of changes to child care and schooling.

The disparity threatens to set back decades of progress in closing workplace gender gaps and hinder the overall recovery from the coronavirus recession.

Read more at The Hill

The “K Shaped” Recovery 

Economists analyzing the U.S. path to recovery are worried that inside national measures of economic growth lie deepening divisions between industries and people as some sectors recover fast, while employment in the leisure and hospitality industry, for example, remains 20% below where it was in February.

Within the roughly 5,000 worst-off zip codes nearly a quarter of working adults were employed in service occupations as of 2018. By contrast, in prosperous zip codes only 13% of employed adults were in service jobs, while half were in management or professional occupations, a group of jobs considered more adaptable to work-from-home arrangements.

Read more and see plenty of graphics at Reuters

World Economic Forum Survey: 5 Workforce Priorities During the Pandemic and Beyond

In a recent survey of manufacturing companies, respondents were asked to assess their own organizations with input from the shop floor, executives and peers. The dominant theme: “Empowering the factory workforce with knowledge and digital tools”, will be essential to surviving the current pandemic and ensuring that operations can adapt to change anytime, anywhere – crisis or not. Along with that, having strong operational standards and lean practices are critical for navigating this crisis and the future of manufacturing.

Read more at the World Economic Forum

Eli Lilly Pauses Trial of Antibody drug Over Safety Concern

Eli Lilly put a temporary halt to tests of a treatment for covid-19, just a day after Johnson & Johnson suspended trials of its vaccine. Lilly cited a “potential safety concern” with its antibody therapy, which President Donald Trump has flattered as a “cure”. Reuters reported that federal drug inspectors have “uncovered serious quality-control problems” at one of Lilly’s manufacturing plants.

Read more at Reuters


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Daily Briefing – 169

Three States Added to Restricted List

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced that Ohio, Michigan and Virginia have been added to New York State’s COVID-19 travel advisory. No areas have been removed. The advisory requires individuals who have traveled to New York from areas with significant community spread to quarantine for 14 days. The quarantine applies to any person arriving from an area with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or an area with a 10 percent or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average.

New York State Cluster Update and Other COVID-19 Numbers

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, October 12th.  Within the “Red Zone” focus areas, 4,138 test results were reported yesterday, yielding 171 positives or a 4.13 percent positivity rate. In the remainder of the state, not counting these “Red Zone” focus areas, 94,932 test results were reported, yielding 1,222 positives or a 1.2 percent positivity rate.Tracking data for the hotspots as compared to the rest of the State is below.
Summary of positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 4.13%
  • Orange 10950: 14.38%
  • Statewide: 1.4%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.2%
Here are some useful links

Manufacturing Economy Report: Manufacturing Job Openings Labor Force and More

Manufacturing job openings in August reached 460,000, up from 430,000 in July and the best reading since July 2019 (477,000). With that said, nonfarm business job openings declined from 6,697,000 in July to 6,493,000 in August, with fewer postings in construction, financial activities, health care, information and retail trade.

Overall, 13,550,000 Americans were unemployed in August, down significantly from 23,078,000 in April but up sharply from 5,787,000 in February. That translates into 2.1 unemployed workers for every one job opening in August, down from 4.6 in April but up from 0.8 in February.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1013

McConnell: Senate to Vote on New Funding for Small Businesses Next Week

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said the Senate would vote on a narrow coronavirus relief bill next week, setting up a potential showdown with Democrats who have pushed for an agreement on a broader aid package.

Mr. McConnell said in a statement that the legislation would include new funding for the Paycheck Protection Program, a $670 billion federal initiative that provides forgivable government-backed loans to small businesses grappling with the economic fallout of the pandemic. Authorization for PPP expired in August with roughly $130 billion of the funds left over.

Read more at the WSJ

US Machine Tool Orders Fell Again in August

U.S. machine shops and other manufactures booked new orders worth $297.7 million during August, -11.5% less than during July and -21.7% less than during August 2019. These orders bring the 2020 year-to-date (January to August) to $2.3 billion, which is -24.3% less than the eight-month total for 2019.

The data is provided by AMT – the Assn. of Manufacturing Technology in its latest U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report. The monthly report is a forward-looking index to manufacturing activity, tracking manufacturers capital investments in anticipation of future work orders.

Read more at American Machinist

Chinese Imports from U.S. Soar 24.8 Percent in September While Medical Equipment and Work-From-Home Gear Fuel Export Growth

China’s exports topped market expectations for a sixth straight month, rising 9.9% from a year earlier in September—the quickest pace in more than a year—as China continued to benefit from coronavirus-fueled demand for medical equipment and work-from-home electronic products. The strong trade figures point to a robust recovery that most economists expect will show China regaining its pre-coronavirus growth trajectory of between 5% and 6% when it reports third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Monday.

China’s purchases from its top three trading partners accelerated rapidly last month, with imports from the U.S. rebounding by the largest margin. China’s imports from the U.S. soared 24.8% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1.8% increase in August.

Read more in the WSJ

NY Fed Report: How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Payments and How Would They Spend the Next?

The authors of the report from NY Fed economists finds that as of the end of June 2020, a relatively small share of stimulus payments—29 percent—was used for consumption, with 36 percent saved and 35 percent used to pay down debt. Reported expected uses for a potential second stimulus payment suggest an even smaller MPC, with households expecting to use more of the funds to pay down their debts. We find similarly small estimated average consumption out of unemployment insurance (UI) payments, but with somewhat larger shares of these funds used to pay down debt.

Read the report at the NY Fed

Inhaled Vaccines Aim to Fight Coronavirus at Its Point of Attack

The Covid-19 vaccines closest to the finish line are designed to be injected into the arm. Researchers are looking at whether they can get better protection from inoculations that fight the virus at its point of attack — the nose and mouth.

Most vaccines in human testing require two shots for effectiveness, and developers still aren’t even sure if they’ll prevent infections. Scientists are hoping to generate superior immune responses with inhaled vaccines that directly target the airway cells the virus invades.

Read more in Bloomberg

Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 Vaccine Study Paused Due to Unexplained Illness in Participant

The study of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine has been paused due to an unexplained illness in a study participant.

J&J emphasized that so-called adverse events — illnesses, accidents, and other bad medical outcomes — are an expected part of a clinical study, and also emphasized the difference between a study pause and a clinical hold, which is a formal regulatory action that can last much longer. The vaccine study is not currently under a clinical hold. J&J said that while it normally communicates clinical holds to the public, it does not usually inform the public of study pauses.

Read more at STAT

Delta Posts Massive Loss, Warns Recovery Could Take 2 Years or More

Kicking off third-quarter reporting for the beleaguered airline sector, Delta said its net loss was $5.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with a profit of $1.5 billion in the year-earlier period. Including its second-quarter results, Delta has lost more than $11 billion during the pandemic so far. CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that the airline has seen “real encouraging signs of improvement,” including interest in Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.

Here’s how Delta performed compared with what Wall Street expected, based on average estimates compiled by Refinitiv:

  • Adjusted EPS: a loss of $3.30 versus an expected loss of $3
  • Revenue: $3.06 billion versus $3.11 billion, expected
  • More airlines are competing for price-sensitive leisure travelers

Read more at CNBC


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Daily Briefing – 168

New York State COVID-19 Numbers and Cluster Initiative Update

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, October 11th. Within the “Red Zone” focus areas, 2,190 test results were reported yesterday, yielding 81 positives or a 3.70 percent positivity rate. In the remainder of the state, not counting these “Red Zone” focus areas, 89,603 test results were reported, yielding 948 positives or a 1.05 percent positivity rate. Tracking data for the hotspots as compared to the rest of the State is below.
Positivity rates:
  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 3.70%
  • Orange 10950: 3.51%
  • Statewide: 1.12%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.05%
Below are some useful links

Rapid Testing to Be Made Available for Every County in New York State

The State Department of Health will deploy an initial 400,000 rapid result test kits free of charge to local health departments, hospitals, pharmacies, and other health care providers to help increase access to free COVID-19 tests that can be done within 15 minutes and without having to send a specimen to a lab.

The rapid tests can be used to control new outbreaks, conduct surveillance testing, and will also be made available on a as needed basis to help schools in ‘yellow zones’ test students and staff as part of new requirements to monitor COVID-19 spread as part of the Governor’s Cluster Action Initiative.

Read the press release

Manufacturers: The Front-Line Defense Against COVID-19

Writing in IndustryWeek NAM CEO Jay Timmons and Carolyn Lee, CEO of the Manfuactuirn Institute write that “As the rate of COVID-19 cases ebbs and flows throughout the country, manufacturers have risen to the challenge in much the same way they did during WWII and other times of national crisis. Working day and night and over the weekends, they have helped us emerge from the early days of the pandemic by keeping shop floors open and making vital products, including the medical supplies and protective equipment people need to fight the coronavirus. Now manufacturing workers are spearheading our recovery, ensuring that the American economy reopens and generates prosperity. And we’ll need many, many more of them.”

“Throughout history, manufacturers have acted heroically—to protect our country and save lives. The pandemic was no exception, and manufacturing workers are a major reason why our country is on the road to renewal. If you’re ready to make a difference, pursue a career in manufacturing.”  

Read more at IndustryWeek

OSHA Refines COVID-19 Reporting Requirements

Jackson Lewis Attorneys report that on October 1, 2020, OSHA updated the FAQs again – this time taking a more reasonable approach. OSHA’s new Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) regarding its reporting and recordkeeping requirements and the conflicting state regulations create confusion for employers — and increase their chances of running afoul of enforcement efforts, say attorneys Gillian G. W. Egan and Cressinda D. Schlag of Council Associate Member Jackson Lewis.

In these most recent FAQs OSHA defines a “work-related incident” as “an exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in the workplace.” This is a significant and welcomed departure from OSHA’s previous position, which eliminated the work-relatedness determination altogether.

Read more at Jackson Lewis

Great Barrington Declaration

“As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.”

Thus begins The Great Barrington Declaration, released last week by scientists who argue that most of us should return to our pre-COVID ways of life.  The declaration has generated a lot of attention and controversy. The cosigners represent a host of scientific disciplines such as public health, biostatistics, finance, and psychiatry. They include Michael Levitt, PhD, (who received the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2013), Jonas Ludvigsson, MD, Angus Dalgleish, PhD, David Katz, PhD, and Mike Hulme, PhD.

Mid-Hudson Bridge Authority Traffic Off 16.55  Percent

In its August 2020 Traffic & Revenue Comparison Report the NYS Bridge Authority reported traffic on all bridges decreased by a total of 16.55 percent. There were just under one million fewer bridge crossings in the first eight months of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019. There were over 4.8 million crossings this year, compared with 5.8 million last year.

The Kingston-Rhinecliff Bridge had the biggest decline in traffic that with a loss of 18.05 percent. That was followed by the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge, which lost 17.51 percent of its traffic. Traffic fell by 16.48 percent on the Mid-Hudson Bridge, by 15.94 percent on the Bear Mountain Bridge, and by 11.13 percent on the Rip Van Winkle Bridge.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

Chinese Steel Production Drives Global Increase

Global steel output remained steady during August, with 156.2 million metric tons produced by 64 countries, about 0.9% more than during July and just 0.6% more than during August 2019. The World Steel Association, which tracks and reports monthly production in member nations, noted that many of the totals available for August represent estimates as a result of “ongoing difficulties presented by the COVID-19 pandemic”.

However, the structure of the global industry is such that Chinese steel production is offsetting decreases and adjustments made in other nations dealing with the pandemic.

Read more in American Machinist

Trucker Pay Increasing as Driver Shortage Grows, Industry Capacity Tightens

Multiple trucking companies are giving drivers pay raises, thanks in part to increased income from customers willing to pay for fast service during the coronavirus pandemic. The higher pay may also help carriers recruit new drivers to replace older ones who have retired because of health concerns and to meet higher demand caused by the growth in e-commerce.

Read more at Transport Topics

The Council of Industry 2020 Compensation & Benefits Survey is Coming October 20th 

We are pleased to announce that the 2020 Council of Industry Compensation and Benefits Survey will be available for completion beginning October 20th. Your participation provides great insight for the Council of Industry, your company, as well as your peers. The survey is co-sponsored by Rose & Kiernan and Ethan Allen Workforce Solutions.
Here is some information to help you get ready


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Wage & Benefit Survey Will Commence October 20th

The Council of Industry 2020 Compensation & Benefits Survey is Coming October 20th 

We are pleased to announce that the 2020 Council of Industry Compensation and Benefits Survey will be available for completion beginning October 20th. Your participation provides great insight for the Council of Industry, your company, as well as your peers. The survey is co-sponsored by Rose & Kiernan and Ethan Allen Workforce Solutions.

Here is some information to help you get ready.

How does it benefit me?
After you complete the survey, you will have access to the survey results to see how your responses compare to others. These results will be available in web-based, printable, and infographic formats for easy interpretation of data. 
Why should I participate?
Your responses will help you directly by providing an idea of what your position pays throughout the Hudson Valley. The survey will also give us a baseline of compensation and benefits in the Hudson Valley for roles similar to yours.
How does it work?
Access to the survey will be password protected and responses will be anonymized based on Safe Harbor methods. Once you receive your invitation email you will be able to create a username and password, then log in to take your survey. Everyone will have a few weeks to submit their responses.
New this year we are working with the team at Sensible Surveys to conduct the survey. If you have any questions as you proceed through the survey, they will be available during normal business hours to answer your questions. We will send out email address and phone numbers to contact the Sensible Survey team as we get closer to the start date.
Thank you for your time and we look forward to your participation. If you have any questions in the meantime please contact Johnnieanne Hansen.

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Daily Briefing – 167

New York State Cluster Action Initiative Update and COVID-19 Numbers

Governor Cuomo issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday, October 10th. Hotspots in Brooklyn, Queens, Rockland, and Orange Counties have driven higher positivity and hospitalization rates in the State. Tracking data for the hotspots as compared to the rest of the State is below.
Positivity rates:

NYS COVID-19 Cluster Initiative Takes Shape

The initiative divides clusters and the areas around them into three categories with successively higher restrictions within each one: Red Zone – cluster Itself; Orange Zone – warning zone; and Yellow Zone – precautionary zone. The enforcement of the zones went into effect between Wednesday, October 7 and Friday, October 9.

A chart on the Cluster Initiative website (link below) has a summary of restrictions but it is not exhaustive. For full details see Empire State Development’s Guidance Related to New York’s Cluster Action Initiative.

Initial Unemployment Claims At 840K

First-time unemployment claims edged downward to 840,000 last week but remained above the pre-pandemic peak. Continuing claims also dropped, but some of the decrease is attributed to the fact that some people have reached the maximum available through regular state programs.

Claims have been above 800,000 every week since the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic, leading to the shutdown of the U.S. economy. However, continuing claims again fell sharply, dropping by just over 1 million to 10.98 million, according to the Labor Department release. Continuing claims trail the headline weekly claims number by a week.

Read more at CNBC

SBA and Treasury Announce Simpler PPP Forgiveness for Loans of $50,000 or Less

The U.S. Small Business Administration, in consultation with the Treasury Department, Friday released a simpler loan forgiveness application for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans of $50,000 or less. This action streamlines the PPP forgiveness process to provide financial and administrative relief to America’s smallest businesses while also ensuring sound stewardship of taxpayer dollars.

“The PPP has provided 5.2 million loans worth $525 billion to American small businesses, providing critical economic relief and supporting more than 51 million jobs,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin.  “We are committed to making the PPP forgiveness process as simple as possible while also protecting against fraud and misuse of funds.  We continue to favor additional legislation to further simplify the forgiveness process.”

Coronavirus Stimulus Talks at Impasse

The latest, beefed-up White House offer on a new coronavirus package hit resistance from both Democrats and Republicans over the weekend, deflating hopes that a bipartisan agreement was imminent.

Democrats criticized the nearly $1.9 trillion offer from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin as insufficient, particularly in its funding and strategy for coronavirus testing and tracing. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, balked at the offer’s cost and its proposed expansion of the Affordable Care Act. The concerns from both sides of the Capitol lowered expectations that had risen Friday when President Trump approved the most generous GOP offer to date in the negotiations.

Read more in the WSJ

Airbus Adds Biz Jet Model to A220 Series

While commercial aviation struggles with diminished demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, private aviation is having a more visible recovery track. Airbus corporate jets president Benoit Defforge explained that private aviation has regained about 90% of its pre-pandemic rate of order volume.

The A220s are twin-engine, narrow-body jets for regional and medium-range service, with seating for 108 to 130 passengers. The new business jet variant will be designed for 18 passengers. The ACJ TwoTwenty is offered with a flexible cabin layout, according to the requirements of heavy and long-range business-jet operations.

Read more at American Machinist

Survey: 76% of Workers Want More Mental Health Support

A new study by Oracle and Workplace Intelligence reveals that 68% of those surveyed would prefer to talk to a robot over their manager regarding stress and anxiety at work. 76% of respondents believe that companies should be doing more to support their workers’ mental health.

The disintegration of boundaries between work and life due to remote work is being reported as the biggest driver of this dip in emotional well-being.  While many companies have started providing new-age benefits that address the emerging issues related to mental health, employees have higher expectations from their companies. Companies may believe that reimbursing counseling costs or covering mental health under insurance might be enough. Still, employees think there is scope for more intervention and technology utilization for their mental wellness.

Read more at ToolboxHR

What You Need to Know About Workplace COVID-19 Testing

Dr. Caesar Djavaherian of Carbon Health discusses types of coronavirus tests available to employers and best practices for maintaining safe workplaces. Djavaherian emphasizes the importance of prevention education, recommends implementing an employee daily symptom tracker — and identifies which symptoms to watch for — and explains why a positive result doesn’t necessarily mean a workplace must shut down.

Read more at Reset Work

Winners and Losers – The Pandemic Has Caused the World’s Economies to Diverge. A Series of Articles in the Economist Looks at the Trends and the Possibilities

In February the coronavirus pandemic struck the world economy with the biggest shock since the second world war. The crash was synchronized. As a recovery takes place, however, huge gaps between the performance of countries are opening up—which could yet recast the world’s economic order. By the end of next year, according to forecasts by the OECD, America’s economy will be the same size as it was in 2019 but China’s will be 10% larger. Europe will still languish beneath its pre-pandemic level of output and could do so for several years—a fate it may share with Japan, which is suffering a demographic squeeze.

It is not just the biggest economic blocs that are growing at different speeds. In the second quarter of this year, according to UBS, a bank, the distribution of growth rates across 50 economies was at its widest for at least 40 years.

Read more in The Economist

National Geographic COVID-19 Data Tracker

Nat. Geo. provides an interesting page with plenty of information and graphics to track the spread of COVID-19 – on page for the United States and another for Europe and the rest of the world. 


read more »

Daily Briefing – 166

COVID and Cluster Initiative Update – Record Number of Tests Conducted

145,811 COVID-19 test results were reported to New York State Wednesday and the state continues to track clusters with a particular focus on areas where there are hot spot, cluster situations. Within the top 20 ZIP codes in counties with recent outbreaks – Brooklyn, Queens, and Rockland and Orange Counties – the average rate of positive tests is 5.8 percent. The rate of positive tests for the remainder of New York State, not counting these 20 ZIP codes, is 1.01 percent. These 20 ZIP codes contained 23.2 percent of all positive cases in New York State yesterday, but represent only 6.2 percent of the state’s population.

Positivity rates:

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 5.8%
  • Orange 10950: 10.1%
  • Statewide: 1.26%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.01%

The state has also developed an tool to see in an address in within a designated cluster.  

Trump: Talks on COVID-19 Aid are ‘Working Out’

Two days after calling off coronavirus relief talks with Democrats, President Trump did a full 180-degree turn and said Thursday that he was now negotiating a “bigger deal” than a narrowly focused package to rescue airlines. “I shut down talks two days ago because they weren’t working out. Now they’re starting to work out,” Trump said in the phone interview with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo.

Two days after calling off coronavirus relief talks with Democrats, President Trump did a full 180-degree turn and said Thursday that he was now negotiating a “bigger deal” than a narrowly focused package to rescue airlines.

Pelosi and Mnuchin have been busy fighting for an eleventh-hour lifeline for the decimated airline industry. The pair spoke twice by phone on Wednesday, and were expected to talk again on Thursday.

Read more at The Hill

Minutes: Fed Worried By Lack of Stimulus But Economy Recovering Faster Than Expected

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 meeting show the body’s concern about the U.S. economy’s ability to withstand the COVID-19 crisis without relief from Congress.

In positive news, the minutes noted that the U.S. economic recovery was moving more quickly than anticipated.  Still, members of the Fed Open Market Committee worried that a lack of additional assistance would jeopardize the recovery and cause particular harm in minority and low-income communities. “Many participants noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support and that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated.” 

Read more at CNBC

NAM Global Economic Report: Seven of the Top 10 Exports Markets Expanded in September

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI expanded in September at the fastest pace in 25 months, buoyed by recoveries in demand and strengthening in the outlook.  In September, seven  of the top 10 markets for U.S.-manufactured goods had expanding manufacturing sectors, up from six in August and just one (China) in May. As such, these major trading partners have continued to improve after plummeting in April to levels that were either the worst since the Great Recession or at record lows.

The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade volumes could fall 9.2% in 2020, an improvement from the previous estimate of a 12.9% decrease this year. WTO predicts that global trade should rebound, rising by 7.2% in 2021.

Global Manufacturing Economic Report 1008 2020

German Exports Rise on “Low-Hanging Fruits” of Recovery

The value of German goods exports rose by 2.4% month-on-month in August, the fourth consecutive month of growth after the covid-19 lockdowns decimated international trade. German exports were still down 10.2% compared with last August. Meanwhile, German imports surged 5.8% month-on-month in August, reducing the country’s trade surplus.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports and imports to both rise by 1.4%. The trade surplus was forecast at 18.2 billion euros.  “The export economy has been reaping the low-hanging fruits in recent months,” VP Bank economist Thomas Gitzel said, adding that subsequent months would be harder.

Read more at Reuters

PPG CEO: Manufacturing Is Critical to Economic Rebound

Writing in IndustryWeek PPG CEO Michael McGarry says that “The U.S. manufacturing sector has established itself as the backbone of economic stability and renewal amid times of crisis or downturn. It is important that candidates in this election, regardless of political affiliation, understand that a strong economic recovery is reliant on a durable manufacturing industry.”

He adds that infrastructure investment, workforce development, immigration reform and continuing a pro-growth tax policy are the keys to ensuring growth in manufacturing. 

Read more in IndustryWeek

Health Benefit Costs Seen Rising 8.1% in 2021

Employer-sponsored health care benefit costs are expected to increase more than 8% globally next year as workers get treatment they had deferred due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Willis Towers Watson report. The consulting firm’s 2021 Global Medical Trends Survey found medical insurers project growth in benefit costs will slow this year to 5.9% after a 7.2% gain in 2019.

But for 2021, they forecast 8.1% growth, with North America gaining 7.1% after a 2.8% increase in 2020. The study also found that 67% of respondents expect medical costs will continue to accelerate over the next three years.

Read more at CFO

Airports Consider Pre-Flight COVID-19 Testing

Airports are working to offer pre-flight COVID-19 testing to prevent passengers from facing cumbersome quarantine orders when they arrive at their destination.

Hawaiian Airlines, for example, is offering $150 at-home saliva tests for passengers to take before flights and a range of airports are opening testing centers that offer 15-minute results (with others offering 48-hour results for more accuracy).  The goal isn’t only to help people fly without quarantining; it’s also to promote confidence in air travel itself. 

Read more in the WSJ


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Daily Briefing – 165

New York State Cluster Action Initiative Update and COVID-19 Numbers

Governor Cuomo issued a press release this afternoon providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Tuesday, October 6th. Hotspots in Brooklyn, Queens, Rockland, and Orange Counties have driven higher positivity and hospitalization rates in the State. Tracking data for the hotspots as compared to the rest of the State is below.

Positivity rates:

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 5.1%
  • Orange 10950: 13.3%
  • Statewide: 1.25%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 1.05%

Empire State Development, in consultation with the Department of Health, released guidance earlier yesterday to help businesses determine whether they are an essential business if they are located in areas with designated cluster activity, as defined by Executive Order 202.68.

Trump Pushes for Some Covid Relief After Shutting Down Stimulus Talks

President Trump renewed calls for Congress to pass individual coronavirus relief measures, including more aid for airlines and direct checks for many Americans, after he halted negotiations with Democrats on a larger package until after the election.

Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Trump tweeted that he had “instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election,” saying a broader stimulus package would come then. Hours later, the president called on Congress to approve some additional assistance for airlines and a small-business aid program and direct checks for many Americans. “If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now,” Mr. Trump tweeted Tuesday night, adding Wednesday morning: “Move Fast, I Am Waiting To Sign!”

Mrs. Pelosi said Wednesday that Democrats were opposed to passing individual bills in the absence of a broader deal, calling that a “missed opportunity.”

Read more in the WSJ

JOLTS: Job Openings Fall… Except for Manufacturing 

August saw a reduction in the number of available jobs for the first time in four months, according to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Manufacturing job openings, however, rose that month, NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray tells us.

“Manufacturing job openings in August reached 460,000, up from 430,000 in July and the best reading since July 2019 (477,000). This improvement suggests that firms are once again increasing their interest in adding new workers, even as the sector attempts to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and the overall labor market has changed dramatically.”

Read more at Reuters

White House Agrees to FDA’s Guidelines for Vetting Covid-19 Vaccines

The White House cast aside its objections and endorsed the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s plans for assessing whether a Covid-19 vaccine should be given to the public, making it likely that a shot won’t be cleared until after the election, people familiar with the matter said. 

The FDA issued the guidelines soon afterward on Tuesday afternoon, saying it hopes the release “helps the public understand our science-based decision-making process that assures vaccine quality, safety and efficacy for any vaccine that is authorized or approved.”

Read more in the WSJ

Has Covid-19 Increased Suicide Rates Around the World?

The Economist answers that It is too early to say, but the signs are ominous. The CDC)carried out a survey this summer that found that one in ten of the 5,400 respondents had seriously considered suicide in the previous month—about twice as many who had thought of taking their lives in 2018. For young adults, aged 18 to 24, the proportion was an astonishing one in four.

The survey, published in August, was one of a growing number of warnings about the toll that the pandemic is taking on the mental health of people. For legions, the coronavirus has upended or outright eliminated work, schooling and religious services. On top of that, lockdowns and other types of social distancing have aggravated loneliness and depression for many.

Read more at The Economist

Manufacturers Lead by Example on COVID-19 Safety

Yesterday the leadership of the NAM Board of Directors—Trane Technologies Chairman and CEO and NAM Board Chair Mike Lamach, Dow Chairman and CEO and NAM Board Vice Chair Jim Fitterling, BTE Technologies President and NAM Small and Medium Manufacturers Chair Chuck Wetherington and Protolabs President and CEO and NAM SMM Vice Chair Vicki Holt—released a joint statement to reinforce the industry’s critical role in the fight against COVID-19. 

“As manufacturers for America’s goods and essential products, we have a strong message for our team members and the country. All Americans must do everything in our power to keep our workers, our communities and our fellow citizens safe from COVID-19. Our industry will continue manufacturing personal protective equipment, medical supplies and therapeutics, racing to develop a safe and effective vaccine and keeping consumer goods and the food supply plentiful. We have been able to do this throughout the pandemic and keep our workers safe.

Read the full statement here.

Trump Administration To Force Employers To Pay H-1B Visa Workers Similar Wages To Americans

The departments of Labor and Homeland Security have issued a joint rule that significantly raises the wages employers must pay foreign workers who come to the country under H-1B visas and reduces the scope of “specialty occupations” eligible for the visas. “Companies have been incentivized to avoid hiring Americans or even lay off their own qualified, better-paid American workers and replace them with cheaper foreign labor,” said DHS’ Ken Cuccinelli.

Read more in Forbes

Boeing Projects Aircraft Demand to Fall -11 Percent

Boeing issued a new forecast of near-, medium- and long-term demand in commercial and defense aircraft, putting some figures to define the industry’s newly diminished outlook. The COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed commercial air travel, causing airlines to cancel orders and reducing the need for aircraft replacement and maintenance.

The 2020 edition of the Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) projects that the commercial aviation and services markets will continue to face significant challenges, though defense and government services sectors will be more stable. Global commercial airplane demand is projected to be worth $2.9 trillion over the next 10 years, -11% from the 2019 outlook and representing total demand for 18,350 commercial jets.

Read more at American Machinist


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Daily Briefing – 164

“Cluster Action Initiative” – Cuomo Imposes Tight Virus Rules on Areas Hit by Spikes Across State

Gov. Cuomo on Tuesday imposed tough new restrictions and guidelines aimed at curbing a surge of coronavirus clusters in parts of New York City and its northern suburbs. The State is declaring COVID-19 clusters in portions of Brooklyn, Queens, Orange and Rockland, as well as a “precautionary zone” in a portion of Binghamton. The “Cluster Action Initiative” will take dramatic actions within the cluster and precautionary measures in surrounding areas. The initiative will follow caseloads, not zip codes or census tract. 

Clusters will be labeled with colors based on their positivity rates. The cluster zones will be three different levels based on proximity to the cluster: red, orange, and yellow. Within each color code there will be capacity limits and gathering rules. Red zones will have the strictest restrictions. Within the red and orange zones, schools will be closed to in-person learning. Schools in a yellow zone must increase testing efforts.

The State is consulting with local governments on the maps of affected areas. The new rules will go into effect as soon as tomorrow, but no later than Friday, October 9th. Testing efforts for schools in a yellow zone will start no later than next Friday. The rules will be in effect for 14 days, at which time they will be reevaluated.

One State Added to Restricted List

Governor Cuomo announced that travelers from New Mexico are now required to complete a 14-day quarantine upon entering New York. No states or areas were removed from the travel advisory.

Pelosi Says Stimulus Talks Are Moving ‘Very Slowly’

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are continuing to hash out the terms of the next federal coronavirus aid bill this week, but progress is slow.

4.9 million people will cross the government’s long-term joblessness threshold (defined as looking for work for 27 weeks or more) over the next two months, according to Labor Department data released last week. While job losses have slowed since the peak of the pandemic and the U.S. last month added more jobs than it lost, layoffs still remain stubbornly high. The two top negotiators, who suddenly resumed urgent conversations last week after negotiations fell apart in August, plan to speak again Tuesday. 

Read more at Forbes

Powell Says U.S. Faces ‘Tragic’ Risks From Doing Too Little to Support Economy

“The expansion is still far from complete,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks delivered at a virtual economics conference Tuesday. “At this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship.”

By contrast, the risks of providing too generous relief are smaller, he said. “Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste,” he said.

Read more in the WSJ

ISM Survey: U.S. Service Sector Activity Rises Above Pre-Pandemic Level in September

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its non-manufacturing activity index rose to a reading of 57.8 last month from 56.9 in August. That put the index just above its 57.3 level in February. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index slipping to 56.0 in September.

The improvement in services industry activity fits in with expectations for a record rebound in economic growth in the third quarter after a historic plunge in gross domestic product in the April-June period. The economy got a boost over the summer from fiscal stimulus.

Read more at Reuters

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in August to Largest Since 2006

The U.S. trade deficit widened in August to the largest since 2006 as the nation imported a record amount of consumer goods amid a pickup in demand ahead of the holiday-shopping season.

Total imports increased 3.2% to $239 billion, while exports rose 2.2% from the prior month to $171.9 billion. The nation’s surplus in services shrank to the lowest since 2012. Meanwhile, the merchandise trade deficit expanded to a record high. The coronavirus pandemic undid some of the Trump administration’s deficit-reduction efforts which were starting to bear fruit before Covid-19 upended demand and supply chains. American businesses, which drew down inventories at the start of the lockdown, have recently increased imports to replenish stocks ahead of the holidays.

Read more at Bloomberg

COVID-19 Response Sparks Efforts to Strengthen Supply Chain

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the fragility of the Defense Department’s supply chain. As a result, the department is taking a variety of steps to strengthen that supply chain, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment said. “One of our first actions was to ensure that the defense industrial base was essential and designated as critical infrastructure,” Ellen M. Lord said in an online discussion during the ComDef 2020 conference, a virtual conference providing insights and perspectives on issues facing the international defense communities.

Read the DOD press release

Nearly 20,000 Amazon Employees Could Have COVID-19

Amazon reported on its blog Oct. 1 that 19,816 employees have tested or been presumed positive for COVID-19. The company analyzed data on its 1,372,000 Amazon and Whole Foods Market frontline employees who were employed in the United States at any time between March 1 and Sept. 19, 2020. Amazon found 1.4% of workers were confirmed or presumed to have COVID-19.

The company has introduced or changed more than 150 safety measures since the pandemic began, including mandatory temperature checks, enhanced cleaning procedures and social distancing measures. Amazon has eliminated stand-up meetings during shifts, staggered break times and spread out chairs in breakrooms.

Read more in EHS Today

EU Reviewing Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine in Real Time

The European health regulator is reviewing a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer PFE.N and BioNTech 22UAy.F in real time, days after launching a similar assessment process for AstraZeneca’s AZN.L vaccine.  The European Medicines Agency (EMA) said on Tuesday its human medicines committee was evaluating the first batch of data on the vaccine, and would continue to do so until enough data is available for a final decision. (

Pfizer and BioNTech said in a joint statement the start of the review is based on data from laboratory and animal testing, as well as early testing on humans, while continuing talks to submit data as it emerged.

Read more at Reuters


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Daily Briefing – 163

Cuomo: Orders Clamp Down in NYC Hot Spots. 

In a briefing from his NYC Office Governor Cuomo said that hotspots could result in more widespread infections. In order to stop the spread from the hotspots the State is using testing, data analysis, and enforcement mechanisms. He added that local governments have not done enough to enforce laws and rules that prevent the spread of the coronavirus. 

Beginning today in NYC: 

  • Schools in Brooklyn and Queens with clusters will be closed.
  • For religious institutions to remain open, communities must agree to enforce mask, capacity, and social distancing protocols.
  • The New York State Department of Health and State Police will oversee enforcement activities beginning at midnight in hotspot clusters with local personnel supplements.
  • Non-essential businesses, public spaces, and schools in hotspot areas should close; however, the State will first review public health data to determine which establishments in the impacted areas will close.
  • New York currently has the lowest statewide positivity rate in the nation if hotspots are excluded.

Read more at CBS New York

Cuomo Issues Executive Order 202.67 Continuing Temporary Suspension and Modification of Laws Relating to the Disaster Emergency

The Executive Order extends through November 3, 2020 the suspensions and modifications of law and any directives, unless they are superseded by a subsequent order, contained in Executive Orders 202 and up. Executive order 202 was issued March 7, 2020.

Read the order

Michigan Supreme Court Rules Against Governor’s Emergency Powers

Michigan’s Supreme Court ruled Friday that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer lacks the authority to extend or declare states of emergency in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Democratic governor issued an executive order declaring a state of emergency in March and expanded it via another executive order in April. The Republican-controlled legislature passed a resolution to extend the state of emergency, but only until April 30. Whitmer has since issued several more orders related to the pandemic.

Gov. Whitmer on Monday asked the state Supreme Court to hold off the effective date of the ruling until Oct. 30.

Read more at NPR

Monday Economic Report – Consumer Ups and Downs, Plus a Whole Lot More

Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.0% in August, increasing (but slowing) for the fourth straight month. The saving rate fell to 14.1% but remained well above the 7.5% average in 2019, suggesting that consumers remain cautious in their spending despite progress in the economy.

Meanwhile, personal income decreased 2.7% in August, the biggest monthly decline since May. The data reflect declining transfer payments, with unemployment insurance falling from $1.32 trillion in July to $633.5 billion in August. Total wages and salaries rose 1.3% in August.

Monday Economic Report 2020-1005

BLS: Manufacturers Added 66,000 Jobs in September

Manufacturers added 66,000 workers in September, rising for the fifth straight month but with employment still down by 647,000 since February. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661,000 in September, somewhat below consensus estimates despite increasing for the fifth consecutive month.

Read the press release 

WHO Sounds Alarm Over Mental Health Effects of Pandemic

The ongoing pandemic is increasing the number of people who need assistance dealing with mental health issues while also limiting mental health care in 93% of countries, the World Health Organization says. WHO Emergencies Director Dr. Mike Ryan estimates that approximately 10% of the world’s population has been infected with coronavirus at this point, and is urging the global community to develop a “comprehensive strategy to fight this disease.”

Read more at Reuters

Interos Report Illustrates Severity of COVID-19 Impact on Global Supply Chains

More than 90% of companies expect the disruption of global supply chains caused by the pandemic will have long-lasting effects on their businesses. Nearly every one of the 450-senior decision-makers in the United States who took the survey (98%) said their organization’s supply chain was disrupted. Their organizations grappled with shortages, demand reduction, price swings, and another upheaval in their supply chains due to the pandemic. More than 90% are concerned that future waves of infections will have similar consequences.

To reduce risk and protect against future shocks, businesses are planning to retool their supply chains, the survey finds. Among the steps they are considering is moving manufacturing to the United States. 

Read more at Material Handling and Logistics

CDC Acknowledges Covid-19 Can Spread via Tiny Air Particles

In its latest revisions to the guidelines Monday, the CDC acknowledged a role for the tiny airborne particles, though the latest wording says they aren’t the main way the virus spreads.

The virus is primarily transmitted via respiratory droplets by people in close contact, including those who are physically near, or within about 6 feet of, each other, the CDC said. The agency also recognized, however, that some infections can be spread by exposure to the virus in small droplets and particles that can linger in the air for minutes to hours.

Read more at the WSJ


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Daily Briefing – 162

Cuomo: State Will Up Enforcement In “Hot” Zip Codes

The Governor issued a press release Sunday announcing New York State will increase enforcement in zip codes with high positivity rates (hotspots). The new enforcement effort will fine and potentially close local businesses found to be out of compliance. This effort is modelled on the State Liquor Authority and State Police Task Force that has been enforcing State guidance at bars and restaurants. Infection rates:

  • 20 hotspot zip codes: 4.8%
  • orange County Zip 10950: 13.7 (3 day average is 21.2%)
  • Statewide: 1.10%
  • Statewide excluding hotspots: 0.91%

Use these helpful tools. 

President Trump Received Regeneron Experimental Antibody Treatment

President Trump has received a dose of an experimental antibody cocktail being developed by the Hudson Valley drug maker Regeneron, in addition to several other drugs, including zinc, vitamin D and the generic version of the heartburn treatment Pepcid, according to a letter from his doctor that was released by the White House Friday afternoon.

There are no approved treatments for Covid-19, but the Regeneron treatment is one of the most promising candidates, along with another antibody treatment developed by Eli Lilly. Both are being tested in patients around the country. Initial results have suggested that they can reduce the level of the virus in the body and possibly shorten hospital stays — when they are given early in the course of infection.

Read more in the New York Times (subscription)

U.S. Economy Plunged 31.4% in Q2 But a Big Rebound is Expected

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services, fell at a rate of 31.4% in the April-June quarter, only slightly changed from the 31.7% drop estimated one month ago.  Economists believe the economy will expand at an annual rate of 30% in the current quarter as businesses have re-opened and millions of people have gone back to work. That would shatter the old record for a quarterly GDP increase, a 16.7% surge in the first quarter of 1950 when Harry Truman was president.

The government will not release its July-September GDP report until Oct. 29, just five days before the presidential election.

Read more at CNBC

New York State’s Second Quarter Economic Crash Was the Worst on Record, Well Above National Average

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates, New York State’s second-quarter GDP crashed 36.3 percent—easily the biggest drop on record, among the biggest decreases in any state, and considerably worse than the 31.4 percent decrease in national GDP during the same period, according to BEA estimates released today. New York’s economic performance ranked 44th out of 50 states.

The new GDP figures also included an adjustment to the annual state GDP estimates for 2019. New York’s GDP increase for last year was adjusted slightly downward, to 1.6 percent, compared to a national GDP growth of 2.2 percent. This ranked New York in the middle of the pack among the 50 states.

Read more at the Empire Center

Consumer Spending Rose in August, but Incomes Pose Hurdle for U.S. Recovery

The Commerce Department said that household income—what people receive in wages, investments and government benefits—fell by 2.7% in August from the previous month because emergency unemployment payouts came to an end. Consumer spending continued to grow (see main stories), but at a slower rate, which could dampen the country’s economic recovery.

Read more at the WSJ

Jobs Report Shows Fewer Hires as Recovery Loses Momentum

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a lower than expected 661,000 in September and the unemployment rate was 7.9%, the Labor Department said Friday in the final jobs report before the November election.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a payrolls gain of 800,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 8.2% from 8.4% in August. The payrolls miss was due largely to a drop in government hiring as at-home schooling continued and Census jobs fell.

Read more at CNBC

Jackson Lewis: OSHA COVID-19 Enforcement on the Rise

OSHA began opening many COVID-19 inspections in April 2020, and it has six months in which to issue citations. The ending of OSHA inspections in these cases and OSHA’s inclination toward issuing citations means that all employers, particularly those in the healthcare, personal care, and residential and group living spaces, should be prepared for possible citations.

To date, federal OSHA and its state counterparts have issued citations related to the selection of respirators, medical evaluations, and fit testing, as well as recording-and-reporting violations, and even under the general duty clause for failure to follow industry guidance on COVID-19-related precautions, such as social distancing.

Read more at Jackson Lewis

OSHA Issues Additional COVID-19 FAQs

OSHA’s new FAQs provide information to help employers apply the agency’s existing injury and illness recording and reporting requirements to the coronavirus. In particular, the FAQs provide guidance on how to calculate reporting deadlines for in-patient hospitalizations and fatalities and clarify the meaning of the term “incident” as it relates to work-related coronavirus in-patient hospitalizations and fatalities.

.These FAQs are the latest effort by OSHA to provide employers and employees with more information about how it will enforce its standards and regulations during the pandemic. 

DHS Announces Relaxing Travel Restrictions to U.S.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is making it a little easier for some foreign nationals to fly to the United States by lifting certain restrictions in place following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under the restrictions, any airplanes carrying passengers who had recently travelled to or had been present in China, Iran, the 26 countries in the Schengen Area, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Brazil but were exempt or received waivers to enter the U.S. were required to land at a limited number of U.S. airports. At those designated airports, there were public health resources for conducting enhanced entry screening. Now, those restrictions have been lifted. This change should make it easier for covered travelers, as they will have more flights, more airlines, and more U.S. arrival destinations to choose from for international travel.

Read more at Jackson Lewis

Deeper Dive From The Economist – Will COVID-9 Kill Globalization?

Covid-19 has been the third major disruption to globalisation within the past twelve years. The pandemic will not kill globalization off, but it will deepen the cracks.  The Economist offers a brief history of modern globlaization and the impacts of COVID-19.

Watch the 15 minute film


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Daily Briefing – 160

State Continues to Track “Hot Spots” 

The Governor issued a press release yesterday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Tuesday, September 29th. New York State continues to track clusters with a particular focus on the top 20 ZIP codes in which there have been hotspots. Within the 20 hotspot ZIP codes, the average rate of positive tests is 5.5 percent. The rate of positive tests for the remainder of New York State, not counting the top 20 ZIP codes, is 0.82 percent. The rate of positive tests for all of New York State, including the top 20 ZIP codes, is 1.02 percent. These 20 ZIP codes contained 23 percent of all positive cases in New York State yesterday, but represent only 6 percent of the state’s population.

DiNapoli: Job Losses Are Concentrated in Lower-Paid Sectors

Six months into the COVID-19 recession, New Yorkers working in lower-paid sectors continue to suffer a disproportionate share of job losses statewide and especially in New York City.

Among the nearly 1.3 million net jobs the State lost from March through August, more than 320,000 were in accommodation and food services. These losses represented 41 percent of jobs in the industry before the recession hit, and one in every four jobs lost in all sectors statewide. Workers in this industry are disproportionately likely to be Black or Hispanic, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. As shown in the chart below, the average annual wage in 2019 for these hotel, restaurant and other jobs was $30,689, less than half the overall average for the State of $75,367. Retail trade, another sector with comparatively low wages, lost 93,000 jobs, one in every 10 of its previous total.

Read more 

Democrats Will Vote on $2.2 Trillion Stimulus, Talks with Mnuchin Will Continue

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that House Democrats will press ahead with a vote Wednesday night on their own $2.2 trillion stimulus proposal, a sign that a bipartisan deal still has yet to be struck to deliver further pandemic relief.

Pelosi made the announcement after a 90-minute meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. She said in a statement that talks between the two negotiators will continue. “Today, Secretary Mnuchin and I had an extensive conversation and we found areas where we are seeking further clarification. Our conversations will continue,” the California Democrat said.

Read more at CNN

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Posts Biggest Gain in 17 Years

Consumer confidence rebounded in September by the most in more than 17 years as Americans grew more upbeat about the outlook for the economy and job market, though sentiment remained below pre-pandemic levels. The Conference Board’s index increased 15.5 points, the most since April 2003, to 101.8 from August’s upwardly revised 86.3, according to a report issued Tuesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 90 in September, and the figure exceeded all estimates.

The group’s gauge of current conditions rose 12.7 points to 98.5, while a measure of the short-term outlook jumped 17.4 points to a three-month high. The gain in the expectations index was the largest since 2009. The S&P 500 turned positive after the report.

Read more at Bloomberg (subscription) 

Shuttles and Carpooling for Manufacturing Employees During a Pandemic

Jackson Lewis Attorneys write that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has provided resources with tips and recommendations to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 when carpooling or ridesharing to and from work. These can be especially useful to manufacturing employees, who often cannot work from home or remotely and use shuttles or carpool, to better minimize the inherent risks of close-contact travel during or to and from work.

The safest option is to avoid carpooling to and from work. However, when that is not possible, the CDC tips provide useful guidelines. Additionally, they can be useful when manufacturers and employers require a shuttle to transport employees.

Read the Recommendations from the CDC at Jackson Lewis

FAA Certifies New GE Engine for Service

The GE9X, the fuel-efficient jet engine developed to power the forthcoming Boeing 777X twin-engine wide-body jet, has gained Federal Aviation Administration’s clearance for commercial flights.

The high-bypass turbofan engine was developed by GE Aviation from the earlier GE90 engine, with a larger fan and a higher percentage of lightweight materials (including ceramic-matrix composites), to achieve an estimated 10% greater fuel efficiency than the previous model.

Read more at American Machinist

More Grim News on the Impact of the Coronavirus Crisis on Women’s Careers

Seven months into a pandemic that has turned work and home life upside down, working women are confronting painful choices that threaten to unravel recent advances in gender equity—in pay, the professional ranks and in attaining leadership positions.

Women have already lost a disproportionate number of jobs. That is partly because of a segregated workforce in many fields in which women make up more of the lower-income service and retail jobs that vanished as Covid-19 gripped the economy. While women are 47% of the U.S. labor force, they accounted for 54% of initial coronavirus-related job losses and still make up 49% of them, according to McKinsey & Co.

Read more in the WSJ

COVID-19 Age Distribution

Researchers from the CDC COVID-19 Response Team published analysis of shifts in the age distribution of US COVID-19 cases. The study, published in the CDC’s MMWR, evaluated age data from COVID-19 cases reported in the US between May and August. The analysis included patients who visited the emergency department with COVID-like illness, patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, and confirmed COVID-19 patients as well as test positivity data among the defined age groups. From May to July, COVID-19 incidence increased among all age groups, but the largest increases were observed in individuals under 30 years old.

Read more at the CDC


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Daily Briefing – 159

NYS Update: Changes to Restricted States, Cuomo to Meet with Orthodox Leaders Regarding “Hot Spot” Zip Codes

Governor Cuomo announced yesterday that he will meet with Orthodox Jewish leaders to address COVID-19 clusters in communities downstate.

The governor also announced that Colorado has been added to New York State’s COVID-19 travel advisory. Arizona and Virginia have been removed. The advisory requires individuals who have traveled to New York from areas with significant community spread to quarantine for 14 days.

McKinsey: Time to Think Beyond COVID-19

Reach back to your company’s 2019 performance trajectory and start planning for a return to normal economic conditions for 2022, argues this McKinsey analysis. The coronavirus remains a threat, of course, but excess deaths are down, and the economic and operational upheaval caused by the pandemic is relatively well-understood, the authors write.

Read the full story from McKinsey

GM Announces $71 Million Investment at Ohio Plants

The investments, which GM said would help it retain 240 jobs, include $39 million at the company’s Toledo transmission plant and $32 million at its Defiance casting plant, according to an announcement from the company. 

“The Toledo investment will be used to upgrade and enhance the production of GM’s eight-speed rear-wheel-drive transmission and the Defiance investment will be used to prepare the facility for future engine casting components work,” the company said.

Read more at the Detroit Free Press

Pelosi and Mnuchin Discuss Possible Coronavirus Aid

The two spoke for 50 minutes, one day after House Democrats unveiled a new, less-expensive version of their previous aid package, which shaved the price tag to $2.2 trillion, down from $3.5 trillion. Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Mnuchin, who also spoke Monday night, agreed to talk again Wednesday, Mrs. Pelosi’s spokesman said on Twitter.

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Tuesday morning that he had spoken with Mr. Mnuchin, along with President Trump. “So hopefully we’ll make some progress and find a solution for the American people,” Mr. Meadows told reporters.

Read more at the WSJ

Companies Prepare for COVID-19 “Take-Home” Lawsuits

U.S. businesses with COVID-19 outbreaks are facing an emerging legal threat from claims that workers brought coronavirus home and infected relatives, which one risk analysis firm said could cost employers billions of dollars.

Between 7% and 9% of the roughly 200,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths so far are believed to stem from take-home infections.  Attorneys for both plaintiffs and companies said successful cases require a strong “causal chain” linking the sick family member to the worker and then to the business and the business’s alleged failure to adopt safety measures.

Read more at Reuters

Contact Tracing: What Employers Should Know

Contract tracing in the workplace could put employers in a legal bind because of confidentiality rules, warns attorney Susan Kline. Kline advises employers to establish a contract-tracing policy, to never disclose names of employees who test positive, and to ensure those in contact-tracing roles are trained to sensitively deal with employees.

Read the full story at Human Resource Executive

COVID-19 Vaccine Prospects That Have Made it to Phase Three trials and Beyond

More than 150 coronavirus vaccines are in development across the world—and hopes are high to bring one to market in record time to ease the global crisis. Several efforts are underway to help make that possible, including the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed initiative, which has pledged $10 billion and aims to develop and deliver 300 million doses of a safe, effective coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The World Health Organization is also coordinating global efforts to develop a vaccine, with an eye toward delivering two billion doses by the end of 2021.

Though it’s too soon to say which candidates will ultimately be successful, here’s a look at the prospects that have reached phase three and beyond—including a quick primer on how they work and where they stand.

Read more at National Geographic

NAM Works to Provide Recommendations on Ventilation Strategies

The NAM is working with the National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA) Manufacturing Sector Council to offer recommendations to companies on ventilation strategies to reduce the risk of COVID-19 at the workplace. If your company has updated its industrial or HVAC systems or is using outdoor air to reduce the spread, NAM wants to hear from you and highlight your story. 

To share your story email Drew Schneider 

CMS Issues Urgent Call to Action Following Drastic Decline in Care for Children Due to COVID-19 Pandemic

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released preliminary Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) data revealing that, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health emergency, rates for vaccinations, primary, and preventive services among children in Medicaid and CHIP have steeply declined. This decline may have significant impacts on long-term health outcomes for children, as Medicaid and CHIP cover nearly 40 million children, including three quarters of children living in poverty and many with special health care needs that require health services.

Read the press release 

NAM’s Timmons: Manufacturers Worried About Coronavirus’ Long-Term Impact

On Monday NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons was a guest with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business discuss concerns over the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the U.S. economy and the 2020 presidential election as well as workforce development and manufacturing day.

Watch on Fox Business


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Daily Briefing – 158

Cuomo: State Looking Into Covid-19 Spread in Brooklyn, Mid-Hudson Region

State health officials are looking into Covid-19 clusters in Brooklyn, Rockland County and Orange County that led to a slight uptick in the state’s overall coronavirus infection rate this weekend, Gov. Cuomo said Monday.  After weeks of seeing a positivity rate of about 1 percent, Cuomo said recent outbreaks in Brooklyn, the Mid-Hudson region and the Southern Tier pushed the state’s infection rate up to 1.5 percent as of Sunday.

In the Governor’s press release yesterday afternoon he provided an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Sunday, September 27th. The State’s infection rate increased to 1.5 percent. This uptick has been traced to ten zip codes with high infection rates, which accounted for 27% of positive COVID-19 test results. The State is deploying rapid testing equipment to high infection areas. Governor Cuomo noted that outside the top 20 zip codes for new coronavirus cases, the infection rate in the rest of the state remains at one percent.

Read the press release and see which zip codes saw the uptick

Manufacturing Mutterings: Council of Industry Podcast With Lt. Governor Kathleen Hochul

Council of Industry President Harold King talks with the Lt. Governor about her role as the head of the State’s Regional Economic Development Councils and Workforce Development Initiative as well as how she came to appreciate manufacturing and recognize its economic significance, the challenges we face rebuilding the economy in a COVID-19 world, apprenticeship, workforce development, business climate and more. 

Listen Here

Pelosi Believes Coronavirus Stimulus Deal Still Possible 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said another coronavirus stimulus plan is possible as House Democrats try to forge ahead on a smaller aid package costing about $2.4 trillion, roughly $1 trillion less than their initial proposal but more than what the Trump administration has signaled it will accept. 

The chamber could vote on the bill as soon as next week. Pelosi, facing growing pressure from moderate Democrats, has tried to convince Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to increase the administration’s $1.3 trillion offer by an additional $1 trillion. However, Mnuchin signaled earlier this month that the administration would not approve a plan that was larger than $1.5 trillion.

Read more at CNBC

China’s Yuan Is Riding High as Economy Recovers, Foreign Investors Pump In Money

The yuan is closing out its strongest quarter against the dollar in more than a decade, boosted by optimism over China’s economic outlook and by the country’s comparatively high interest rates.

From the start of July through Friday’s close, the yuan has strengthened 3.7% against the dollar. That puts the yuan on track for its biggest quarterly gain since early 2008, FactSet data shows. The only other bigger quarterly gains on record are from the 1970s and 1980s, long before China began reforming its currency market in 1994. 

Read more in the WSJ

NAM Manufacturing Economy Report – Core Capital Goods, Manufacturing PMI, Housing, Jobs and More

New orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in August, extending the 11.7% gain in July and rising for the fourth straight month despite growing well below the consensus estimate of around 1.5%. Overall, the durable goods manufacturing sector has continued to rebound from steep declines in March and April due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but current activity remains off 4.6% from the pace in August 2019.

Despite the slower-than-expected headline number for durable goods, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft (or “core capital goods”)—a proxy for capital spending in the U.S. economy—rose 1.8% to the highest level since July 2018 and increased 2.8% year-over-year.

Monday Economic Report 2020-0928

Eurozone PMI – Business Activity Stagnates, Manufacturing a Bright Spot

Business activity stalled across the eurozone in September, albeit with increasingly divergent trends by sector and country. Faster growth of manufacturing, led by Germany, was offset by a renewed downturn in the service sector, which was often linked to resurgent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection rates. A net loss of jobs continued to be reported, though the rate of payroll reduction eased, notably in manufacturing, thanks in part to improved future expectations. Price pressures meanwhile moderated during the month.

Manufacturing output growth accelerated in September to the fastest since February 2018, fueled by the largest rise in new orders seen over this period. 

Read more at IHS Markit Flash

Forecast: US auto sales to rise 3.3% in September

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive forecast a 3.3% increase in US auto sales in September on a month-over-month basis. With the expected September growth, fueled in part by the Labor Day holiday, annual sales are forecast at 15.7 million vehicles, an increase of 500,000 vehicles from seasonally adjusted annual sales pace last month.

Read more at Reuters

Consumers Expect Modest Increase in Spending Growth and Continued Government Support

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its August 2020 SCE Household Spending Survey and SCE Public Policy Survey. The authors highlight the key takeaways from the data releases regarding the evolution of households’ spending and public policy expectations.

See the post and the results

This Friday- Broadcasting Live From Stanfordville Machine, Mfg Day 2020

WKIP’s Hudson Valley Focus Live will be broadcasting live the morning of October 2nd from Stanfordville Machine, Victory Lane in Poughkeepsie.

Hosted as always by Tom Sipos, guests will include Stanfordville CEO Neal Johnsen, the Council of Industry’s Johnnieanne Hansen and Harold King, and many other manufacturers, educators and economic development professionals.

Tune in at WKIP or with the iHeart Radio App


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Daily Briefing – 157

Cuomo:  Percent Positive Just Over One Percent – Mid Hudson Region Higher

The Governor issued a press release Sunday providing an overview of New York’s COVID-19 tracking data from Saturday, September 26th. The percentage of tests returning positive remained relatively flat at 1.02 percent.

Notably the Mid-Hudson Region has seen and increase in the percentage of people testing positive. 









What Can Government Do to Strengthen US Manufacturing?

To explore these and other policy proposals that would impact manufacturing for years to come, the Manufacturing Policy Initiative (MPI) at Indiana University and the Hudson Institute have organized a series of virtual policy discussions during Manufacturing Week, September 28 – October 2, 2020. The series will conclude on Manufacturing Day, Friday, October 2, with a live event at noon (EDT) featuring spokespeople for presidential candidates Donald Trump (Republican Party), Joe Biden (Democratic Party), and Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian Party).

Read more about the discussions and how you can join in at IndustryWeek

Commerce Department: Core Capital Goods Orders Rise in August

The Commerce Department reported a 0.4% gain in durable goods orders in August, with a 1.8% gain for capital goods excluding aircraft and defense. July’s figure for capital goods excluding aircraft and defense was revised upward from 1.9% to 2.5%.

Read more at Reuters

Manufacturers Repurpose LIDAR for Remote Sensing During COVID-19

For manufacturers, there is no remote work option. In the face of COVID-19, they need to take extra precautions, including remote temperature sensing.  As the global pandemic continues, some manufacturers are realizing they can repurpose their 3D LIDAR systems—now used for security or product tracking—to monitor employee distancing and behavior, said Justin Bean, global marketing director for Lumada Video Insights at Hitachi Vantara, which produces manufacturing software.

LIDAR, short for light detection and ranging, is a remote-sensing method that measures distances between objects through the use of pulsed laser light. The systems help autonomous vehicles maneuver. They’re used in airports to monitor the flow of passengers in real-time, and by manufacturers to monitor supply chains, said Flood. He spoke via the web at Geo Week, held in April.

Read More at ASME

Employers Expanding Wellness Benefits to Address COVID Concerns, Expect Health Benefits Costs to Increase More than 5%

Large employers plan to expand virtual care offered to employees next year as well as double down on mental health and emotional well-being as they continue to address the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an annual survey by Business Group on Health.

Employers project health benefits costs will rise by more than 5% in 2021 although the pandemic’s impact is fueling uncertainty about overall costs. According to the 2021 Large Employers’ Health Care Strategy and Plan Design Survey, the total cost of health benefits is expected to rise 5.3% in 2021, taking cost management initiatives into account. The total cost is projected to rise to an average of just over $15,500 in 2021. In line with recent years, employers will cover nearly 70% of costs while employees will bear about 30%, or nearly $4,700.

The Pandemic Imperils Working Mothers’ Careers

Flexible scheduling has become a common practice at most companies as the pandemic drags on, keeping physical schools and day care centers closed in many parts of the country. Employers are authorizing workers to create work schedules that will permit them to fulfill their job responsibilities while addressing family needs. Study after study shows, however, that women are shouldering more of the domestic and child care responsibilities. That means they’re on a virtual high-wire act that requires getting up early in the morning and going to bed late at night to complete the work they’re paid for so they can tend to their children during the day.

The resulting exhaustion has led many women to quit or scale back their hours. Those who don’t have that option—such as single mothers—worry about their job performance and how it may affect their career paths. 

Read more from SRRM

Top U.S. Health Officials Reassure on Future Coronavirus Vaccine Safety 

“In the end, FDA will not authorize or approve a vaccine that we would not feel comfortable giving to our families,” Hahn told lawmakers during a Senate hearing on the coronavirus Wednesday. Dr. Fauci, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and Adm. Brett Giroir, an assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, joined Hahn and told lawmakers they would take an FDA-approved coronavirus vaccine once it’s available. 

There are four vaccine candidates from Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson that are now in late-stage human trials. On Wednesday, HHS Secretary Alex Azar told CNBC that the FDA commissioner, President Donald Trump and the heads of each company have “made it clear” that a vaccine’s approval is “going to be by the book based on science, data and the law.”

Read more at CNBC

New York State Vaccine Advisor Task Force Announced

Governor Cuomo announced yesterday the formation of an independent Clinical Advisory Task Force of leading scientists, doctors, and health experts who will review COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the Federal Government, and will advise New York State on the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness:

  • Prioritization of vaccine recipients based solely on clinical guidance
  • Distribution network capable of providing two doses of vaccine to all New Yorkers
  • Qualified professionals and organizations to administer the vaccine
  • Data and IT infrastructure for scheduling appointments and tracking program metrics
  • Public education regarding vaccination program
  • Procurement of necessary supplies and equipment

Read the press release

America’s Economy is Recovering Faster than Expected

The upgrades in America can be attributed to three factors. First, the spread of the coronavirus in the southern “sunbelt states”, which rode a wave of the epidemic in the summer, has slowed. Second, America’s economic stimulus, the world’s largest both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP, has been potent.

The final reason behind the forecast revisions is probably America’s flexible labour market. The fall in unemployment in recent months seems to reflect mainly the creation of more new jobs, rather than the departure of discouraged workers from the workforce. In Europe governments have tended to assume much of the payroll cost for furloughed workers. Such schemes are handy in a tight spot. But if prolonged, they could keep workers in jobs that are never coming back. America, in contrast, has mainly protected people’s incomes with unemployment benefits. As a result the reallocation of labour from dying industries to up-and-coming ones is happening at speed. For example, the number of travel agents has fallen by 10% since April, even as overall employment has risen. Employment in general-merchandise shops is 6% higher than before the pandemic.

Read more and see the charts at The Economist

Grim Milestone – One Million Deaths But Some Things are Improving, And it Will Not Go on Forever

The Economist takes a long look at the numbers as the world looks set to see its millionth officially recorded death from covid-19 before the beginning of October. That is more than the World Health Organization recorded as having died from malaria (620,000), suicide (794,000) or hiv/aids (954,000) over the whole of 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available. 

Those deaths represent just over 3% of the recorded covid-19 cases, which now number over 32m. That tally is itself an underestimate of the number who have actually been infected by sarscov-2, the virus which causes covid 19. Many of the infected do not get sick. Many who do are never seen by any health system.

Read more at the Economist (Covid 19 coverage remains free)


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