Category: Economic Trends

Daily Briefing – 494

Post: Apr. 18, 2022

Industrial Production Climbs in March Driven by Automaker Rebound 

Industrial production climbed 0.9% last month, the Fed said, more than expected and pushing the metric of industry output to an annualized rate of 8.1% for the first quarter. Manufacturing output for March also increased 0.9%. Industrial production year on year rose 5.47% .

Other highlights from the Fed on the state of the manufacturing sector:

  • Total industrial production advanced 8.1 percent for the first quarter.
  • The output of motor vehicles and parts jumped 7.8 percent.
  • Consumer durables and transit equipment increased 5.2 percent.
  • At 104.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in March was 5.5 percent above its year-earlier level.
  • Capacity utilization climbed to 78.3 percent, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2021) average.
  • Although, the capacity utilization is still below it’s long run average by 1.2% (from 1972), it still is at its highest level since January 2019. The 2018 cycle high reached 79.9%

Read more at IndustryWeek


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Judge Strikes Down CDC Mask Mandate for Travel

A federal judge in Florida on Monday struck down the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) mask mandate for travel on planes, trains and buses. Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, an appointee of former President Trump, wrote that the CDC exceeded its statutory authority with the order. Mizelle added that the CDC had also failed to follow the rulemaking processes laid out in law and provide a sufficient justification for its mandate. The CDC had recently extended the order for 15 days, through May 3, amid some discussion of whether to end it. But the agency decided more time was needed to monitor an uptick in cases from the BA.2 subvariant of omicron.

The ruling can be appealed, but there could be confusion in the short term. The travel mask mandate was one of the few remaining mask orders, as states and localities across the country have largely lifted mask mandates for the general public. Philadelphia is a rare exception in reinstating a more general mask mandate in recent days due to the uptick in cases. 

Read more at The Hill


Goldman Sachs Sees 1 in 3 Chance of a Recession, Other Bank Predictions

The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular problem for the Federal Reserve. The large gap between jobs and workers, which keeps wage growth elevated, has historically only declined during periods of economic contraction, chief economist Jan Hatzius and team wrote in a note out on Sunday. 

  • Deutsche Bank was the first big Wall Street bank to forecast a recession, saying in the first week of April a recession in late 2023 is now their base case. 
  • Wells Fargo stock strategist Chris Harvey said in a note last week that despite “daily calls for a recession from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 months. Rather, stagflation (high inflation/slower growth) likely will prevail.”
  • Credit Suisse says “we only tend to get recessions 9 months after 3-month money inverts relative to 10-year.”

Predictions for a recession have been growing as the Fed tries to negotiate a soft landing for the economy at a time when inflation is at a level not seen in four decades.

Read more at Seeking Alpha


US COVID – BA.2 Proves the Pandemic Isn’t Over, but People Are Over It

The Omicron subvariant is contributing to school and work absences, yet two years of dealing with Covid-19 have made people tired of taking precautions, getting tested and asking about other people’s status, say physicians, psychologists and behavioral scientists. If this is a pandemic wave, then many have decided the best response is a weary shrug.

Psychologists say it can be difficult to discern how seriously to take BA.2, given shifting guidance and sometimes difficult-to-parse public-health messaging. Avoidance takes various forms including refraining from asking friends about Covid exposures to avoid answers people may not want to hear.  Some people say they won’t worry about BA.2 unless it is absolutely clear they need to. Nearly three-quarters of Americans polled by Monmouth University in mid-March agreed that Covid is here to stay, and people should get on with their lives.

Read more at the WSJ


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 15:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,520,976
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,719,951

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,795,564
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,510,754

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 921,707

The Governor updated COVID data through April 15.  There were 9 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,488

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,216.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 147

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 4.68%    –   28.88 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 4.22%   –   25.92 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Hochul Vows She Won’t Shut Down New York as COVID Cases Spike

Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a new interview that New York would never again be crippled by the COVID-19 pandemic, vowing to not reimpose COVID-related restrictions that ground the state to a halt even as cases begin to rise again.

The Democratic Party nominee for governor vowed to not reimpose COVID-related restrictions that ground the state to a halt — as the Big Apple faces an uptick in cases. “I’m going to protect the health of New Yorkers, but I’m also protecting the economy,” she told John Catsimatidis, host of “The Cats Roundtable,” in an interview out Sunday. “I’m not going to shut it down again, you can count on that.”

Read more at the NY Post


“Long Social Distancing” – Survey finds Several Million U.S. Workers Seen Staying Out of Labor Force Indefinitely

About three million workforce dropouts say they don’t plan to return to pre-COVID activities—whether that includes going to work, shopping in person or dining out—even after the pandemic ends, according to a monthly survey conducted over the past year by a team of researchers. The workforce dropouts tend to be women, lack a college degree and have worked in low-paying fields. The research team has named this phenomenon “long social distancing” and believes it will be one of the lasting scars of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Should the researchers’ predictions turn out to be true—that the labor force will be depressed for potentially years after the pandemic recedes—the implications for the world’s largest economy and the Federal Reserve are substantial. A sharp drop in the labor force at the pandemic’s start led to shortages of workers and products that have frustrated households, restrained economic growth and helped push inflation to a 40-year high.

Read more at the WSJ


Can COVID-19 Alter Your Personality? Here’s What Brain Research Shows

More than two years into the pandemic, it’s become clear that neurological problems from COVID-19 can linger or intensify. After recovering from the virus, an alarming number of patients remain shrouded in brain fog, suffering from anxiety or depression, unable to think straight or hold on to memories, and fumbling for words. Not all had been hospitalized; some had only mild infections.

While little is known about the mechanisms behind many of these symptoms, researchers increasingly believe that inflammation may play a key role. With COVID-19, a storm of inflammatory cytokine proteins can trigger an out-of-control immune response that might permanently damage or destroy brain cells.  And with damage to the brain, Maura Boldrini, a neuroscientist and psychiatrist at Manhattan’s Columbia University Irving Medical Center. says, “we may not be the same person anymore.”

Read more at Nat Geo


Biden to Require US-Made Steel, Iron for Infrastructure

New guidance issued Monday requires that the material purchased — whether it’s for a bridge, a highway, a water pipe or broadband internet — be produced in the U.S..  “There are going to be additional opportunities for good jobs in the manufacturing sector,” said Celeste Drake, director of Made in America at the White House Office of Management and Budget.

The guidance includes three standards for these requirements to be waived: if the purchase “would be inconsistent with the public interest”; if the needed materials aren’t produced “in sufficient and reasonably available quantities or of a satisfactory quality”; or if U.S. materials increase a project’s cost by more than 25%.

Read more at The Hill


Forecast Sees Flat Steel Demand

Global steel demand growth for 2022 will rise just 0.4% year-over-year, according to the World Steel Assn.’s latest Short Range Outlook report. The ongoing decline, which began in mid-2021, is shaped by Chinese government restrictions on real-estate and construction growth along with rising inflation worldwide and the instability surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  World Steel, a trade association representing steelmaking businesses in 64 countries, pegged the current year’s global steel demand total at 1.84 billion metric tons, to be followed by a 2.2% rise in 2023 to 1.89 billion metric tons.

In its previous SRO, World Steel set the 2022 demand target at 1.89 billion metric tons, which was a downgrade from the preceding forecast level of 1.92 billion metric tons. The global industry had rebounded in the first half of 2021, but by midyear a slowdown had begun – starting in China.

Read more at American Machinist


Utilities Plan Huge Electric Grid Upgrades, Adding to Power Bills

American utilities are planning their biggest spending increases in decades to upgrade aging grids, prepare for electric vehicles and make the transition to renewable energy—moves poised to further boost power costs as consumers face historic inflation.

The plans propose tens of billions of dollars in spending in the coming years to reduce carbon emissions, partly in response to state and federal mandates, and to replace aging infrastructure that has become more prone to failure. Edison Electric Institute, an industry trade group, expects that utilities will invest roughly $140 billion each year in 2022 and 2023, substantially more than any year since 2000, when the group began tracking spending.

Read more at the WSJ


Bank of America Beats Profit Estimates on Strength in Consumer Lending

Bank of America Corp reported a smaller-than-expected 13% fall in first-quarter profit on Monday, as strong growth in its consumer lending business helped cushion the blow from a slowdown in global deal-making. The bank reported a 9% rise in consumer banking revenue to $8.8 billion in the quarter ended March.

“First-quarter results were strong despite challenging markets and volatility,” Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said in a statement. However, total investment banking fees plunged 35% to $1.5 billion in the quarter.

Read more at Reuters


California Dreaming – Lawmakers Propose 32 Hour, 4 Day Work Week for Private-Sector Companies with More than 500 Employees

A proposal in the California State Legislature would define the workweek in the state as 32 hours, not 40, for larger companies. By the end of this week, the California State Assembly’s Labor and Employment Committee is expected to decide if the bill will move forward. While the proposal is still many steps away from becoming law, if passed, the bill could affect more than 2,000 businesses.  Earlier this month the California Chamber of Commerce added the bill to its “job killer list,” saying the legislation would significantly increase labor costs.

Research into the effectiveness of shortened weeks is mixed. Economic studies out of Germany and France found that fewer hours didn’t increase employment. A 2013 study on private companies in Belgium found that employees who worked between 25 and 35 hours a week were more productive than those who worked more or less than that.  

Read more at the WSJ


China’s First Quarter GDP Beats Grew 4.8% Year-on-Year

China’s first quarter GDP grew faster than expected despite the impact of COVID lockdowns in parts of the country in March, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics Monday. First quarter GDP rose by 4.8%, topping expectations of a 4.4% increase from a year ago. Industrial production in March rose by 5%, beating the forecast for 4.5% growth. However, retail sales in March fell by a more-than-expected 3.5% from a year earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters anticipated a 1.6% decline.

Fixed asset investment for the first quarter rose by 9.3% from a year ago, topping expectations for 8.5% growth. Investment in manufacturing rose by 15.6% in the first quarter from a year ago, and infrastructure saw an 8.5% increase over the same period. 

Read more at CNBC


In the Chips: TSMC Reports Record First-Quarter Revenue

Taiwanese tech giant TSMC posted record revenue for the first three months of the year Thursday. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) operates the world’s largest silicon wafer factories and produces some of the most advanced microchips. CEO C.C. Wei said first-quarter revenue was “above the high-end of our guidance mainly due to better demand from smartphone and automotive-related applications than our forecast three months ago.”

Its first-quarter revenue rose 36% on-year and 12% on-quarter, respectively, to a record Tw$491.1 billion (US$17.6 billion), according to a company statement. It also posted a 45% year-on-year profit of Tw$202.7 billion in the January-March period. That was up 22% from the 2021 fourth quarter.

Read more at IndustryWeek


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Daily Briefing – 493

Post: Apr. 17, 2022

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity “Picked Up Significantly”

After three months of sluggishness, manufacturing activity picked up significantly in New York State, according to the April survey. However, firms are less optimistic about the future as longer delivery times, higher prices, and increases in employment are all expected in the months ahead.

  • The general business conditions index shot up thirty-six points to 24.6. 
  • The new orders index climbed thirty-six points to 25.1.
  • The shipments index rose forty-two points to 34.5, pointing to a strong rebound in orders and shipments.
  • The unfilled orders index climbed to 17.3. 
  • The delivery times index moved down eleven points to 21.8, pointing to ongoing increases in delivery times.
  • The index for number of employees dropped seven points to 7.3,
  • The average workweek index came in at 10.0, pointing to a small increase in the average workweek.
  • The prices paid index climbed thirteen points to 86.4, a record high, 
  • The index for future business conditions fell twenty-one points to 15.2, its lowest level since early in the pandemic. 

Read more at the New York Fed


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


U.S. Retail Sales Rise 0.5% in March, But High Gas Prices and Inflation Take Toll

Consumers increased retail and restaurant spending by 0.5% in March compared with the previous month, according to the Commerce Department, from the revised monthly increase of 0.8% in February. Sales at gas stations accounted for much of the increase with an 8.9% jump over the previous month, reflecting sharply higher fuel prices related to the Ukraine war. Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales fell by 0.3%. Spending rose for a range of other categories, including appliances, electronics, groceries, dining out and clothing.

Declines in online shopping and auto sales held back spending totals. Overall retail sales would have been even higher if not for a 1.9% monthly auto sales decline. Auto companies struggled with a vehicle shortage during the pandemic due to supply disruptions, pushing prices up sharply. Sales also declined sharply at online retailers, a 6.4% drop over February.

Read more at MarketWatch


Hudson Valley Regional Job Growth Continued in March, Manufacturers Added 300 workers

Manufacturers in the region added 300 net jobs in March according to data from the BLS compiled by the New York State Department o f Labor.  Since march of 2021 that number is 1,600. Over the past year, private sector job counts in the Hudson Valley rose by 27,400, or 3.7 percent, to 765,100 in March 2022.  Growth was centered in leisure and hospitality (+12,000), professional and business services (+4,900), trade, transportation and utilities (+4,500), other services (+4,100), manufacturing (+1,600), information (+700) and financial activities (+200).  Job losses occurred in educational and health services (-600).      

Private sector job growth continued to be broad-based, with seven of nine sectors adding jobs for the 12-months through March 2022.  Within the region, the Kingston MSA’s private employment sector grew the fastest year-over-year, up 7.9 percent.  The second fastest growth was recorded in Sullivan County (+5.9 percent), followed by the Orange-Rockland-Westchester labor market area (+3.5 percent), and the Dutchess-Putnam MSA (+2.6 percent).

Hudson Valley Labor Market Profile – March 2022


US COVID – Uptick

The US CDC is currently reporting 80.3 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 984,018 deaths. The 7-day daily incidence was 29,401 new cases on April 12, trending upward since a recent low of 24,816 on March 29. Daily mortality appears to have leveled over the past week, with a 7-day average of 454 on April 7, increasing to 493 on April 8, and down to 452 on April 12. Notably, the 7-day moving average number of new hospital admissions of people with confirmed COVID-19 is +1.4% over the prior 7-day average, reflecting the increasing trend in incidence. 

The US has administered 567 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Daily vaccinations have increased significantly over the past 2 weeks, with the average climbing from 157,534 on March 28 to 444,409 on April 7. The increase likely is a result of the US FDA’s authorization of a second booster dose of the mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for certain individuals. A total of 256.5 million individuals have received at least 1 vaccine dose, which corresponds to 77.3% of the entire US population.  A total of 218.6 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 65.8% of the total population.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 15:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,520,976
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,719,951

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,795,564
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,510,754

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 921,707

The Governor updated COVID data through April 15.  There were 9 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,488

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,216.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 147

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 4.68%    –   28.88 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 4.22%   –   25.92 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


New York’s True COVID Infection Rate Unclear as Many At-Home Tests Go Unreported

New York’s true COVID-19 infection rate remains unclear as scores of at-home rapid test results go unreported, while questions mount about disparities among those using the test kits. As the highly contagious Omicron strain fueled COVID-19 surges in recent months, some counties asked people to self-report positive at-home tests via online portals. But the patchwork reporting, which is excluded from the state’s official daily case count, only offered a glimpse of the virus’ spread.

Now, the gaps in at-home test use and reporting are unfolding as New York’s COVID-19 hospitalizations climbed 14% last week, underscoring the urgency of utilizing the test kits efficiently to catch cases early and limit the virus’ spread.

Read more at LoHud.com


New ‘Highly Contagious’ Omicron BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 Subvariants Detected in NY, Cases Mild

New sub-lineages of the omicron strain of COVID-19 that are estimated to be even more contagious than the BA.2 subvariant have been detected in New York state, Department of Health officials said Wednesday, attributing the discoveries to rising case levels.

BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 are sub-lineages of the omicron BA.2 subvariant, which now accounts for more than 80% of new infections in the state, the Department of Health said in a press release. The new subvariants are estimated to spread at an alarmingly faster rate – 23% to 27% – than BA.2, but do not appear to cause an increased level of severity in infections, officials said.

Read more at City & State


The Way Chinese Think About COVID-19 is Changing, Will Government Policy Adjust?

For much of the pandemic the Chinese public has joined officials in hailing the zero-covid strategy as a success. Over the past two years China has had a lower mortality rate from the virus and stronger economic growth than any other big country. But the current wave is changing the way people think about the virus—and about the government’s strategy.

No one wants mainland China to end up like Hong Kong, which was overwhelmed by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, leading to a spike in deaths among unvaccinated old people. The mainland’s elderly population is similarly vulnerable, so a complete lifting of controls is out of the question. At the moment, though, anecdotal evidence suggests that more people are dying because of the Chinese government’s restrictions than from the virus. The state needs to adapt, say critics.

Read more at The Economist


Biden Increases Oil Royalty Rate and Scales Back Lease Sales on Federal Lands

The Interior Department on Friday said it’s moving forward with the first onshore sales of public oil and natural gas drilling leases under President Joe Biden, but will sharply increase royalty rates for companies as federal officials weigh efforts to fight climate change against pressure to bring down high gasoline prices.

The royalty rate for new leases will increase to 18.75% from 12.5%. That’s a 50% jump and marks the first increase to royalties for the federal government since they were imposed in the 1920s. Biden suspended new leasing just a week after taking office in January 2021. A federal judge in Louisiana ordered the sales to resume, saying Interior officials had offered no “rational explanation” for canceling them.

Read more at NPR


Companies Size Up Their Losses on Russian Operations

Global businesses are tallying up tens of billions in losses from their Russian operations as they grapple with the impact of asset sales, shutdowns and sanctions, according to public statements and securities filings. More than 6oo Western companies have said they would exit or cut back operations in Russia, according to researchers at Yale University.

Losses stemming from the pullout include the expected write-down, or complete write-off, of assets ranging from oil wells to car factories and consumer loans, according to statements by the companies. The impact will be felt well beyond the big announcements that have already come mostly from energy companies. A fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 listed Russia subsidiaries for 2021, according to data provider Calcbench.

Read more at the WSJ


US Warns of Cyberthreat to Specific Industrial Machines – Schneider Electric and OMRON Named

A new joint Cybersecurity Advisory (CSA) from the United States government issued on Wednesday warns that advanced persistent threat (APT) actors (read: cybercriminals) have developed a way to gain full system access to multiple industrial control systems (ICS) and supervisory control and data acquisition devices (SCADA), targeting specific models of programmable logic controllers (PLCs) manufactured by Schneider Electric and OMRON.

According to the CSA, cybercriminals have developed custom-made tools to specifically target the machines in question. Once the machines are compromised, the cybercriminals can upload malicious code, modify device parameters, and back up device contents, among other things a company does not want to have to deal with.

Read more at IndustryWeek


185,000 Americans Filed New Jobless Claims Last Week

U.S. jobless claims held near multi-decade lows last week as companies worked to keep employees on their payrolls amid ongoing labor shortages.

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended April 9: 185,000 vs. 170,000 expected and a revised 167,000 during prior week.
  • Continuing claims, week ended April 2: 1.475 million vs. 1.500 million expected, 1.523 million during prior week.

“It seems like we’re in the midst of a perfect storm of factors with rising commodity prices, supply chain issues, and a tight labor market so it is not surprising that inflation is rising at its fastest pace in 40 years,” Bill Price, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in an email Tuesday.

Read more at YahooFinance


Summer is Coming – New OSHA Emphasis Program for Heat Hazards

On April 11, OSHA announced it has launched a National Emphasis Program to protect millions of workers from heat illness and injuries. The NEP lists many manufacturing industries for enforcement.

As part of the program, OSHA will proactively initiate inspections in over 70 high-risk industries in indoor and outdoor work settings when the National Weather Service has issued a heat warning or advisory for a local area. On days when the heat index is 80 F or higher, OSHA inspectors and compliance assistance specialists will engage in proactive outreach and technical assistance to help stakeholders keep workers safe on the job.

Read more including a link to the High Risk Industries at EHS Today


ECB Confirms the End of its Bond Buying in the Third Quarter as Inflation Surges

The European Central Bank on Thursday kept its monetary policy unchanged but confirmed it will end its bond buying in the third quarter. The Governing Council faces a dilemma, with inflation hitting a record high of 7.5% in March, while the economic growth outlook weakens due to the war in Ukraine.

The ECB said in a statement Thursday that it now expects to conclude its net asset purchases under its APP (asset purchase program) in the third quarter. It had previously said this would be the course of action if supported by the data. “At today’s meeting the Governing Council judged that the incoming data since its last meeting reinforce its expectation that net asset purchases under the APP should be concluded in the third quarter,” the bank said Thursday. Once the bond buying program is completed, the ECB is expected to begin hiking interest rates, following the same path as the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Read more at CNBC


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Daily Briefing – 492

Post: Apr. 13, 2022

11.2% – Producer Prices Index Rise in March is Highest on Record, Core was 7.0%

The producer price index, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers, increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge increased 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate and also a new record. PPI is considered a forward-looking inflation measure as it tracks prices in the pipeline for goods and services that eventually reach consumers.

Stripping out food, energy and trade services, so-called core PPI rose 0.9% on a monthly basis, nearly double the 0.5% estimate and the biggest monthly gain since January 2021. Core PPI increased 7% on a year-over-year basis. In the details, car prices rose only 0.3% in March, but light truck prices jumped 0.9%; supply constraints continue to bite. The PPI recorded a 6.9% leap in airline fares, less than the 10.7% surge in the CPI version; they are measured differently but follow the same broad trends over time. Finally, healthcare prices rose only 0.1% and remain well-contained.

Read more at CNBC


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


NFIB Survey: Inflation Overtakes Labor Quality as Top Business Problem For Small Businesses

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March by 2.4 points to 93.2, the third consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Thirty-one percent of owners reported that inflation was the single most important problem in their business, up five points from February and the highest reading since the first quarter of 1981. Inflation has now replaced “labor quality” as the number one problem.

Key findings include:

  • Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased 14 points to a net negative 49%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year-old survey.
  • Forty-seven percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, a decrease of one point from February.
  • The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased four points to a net 72% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading in the survey’s history.

The surveys activity and sentiment reading of 93.2 is the lowest since April 2020, the first full month of the pandemic.

Read more at NFIB


Global Trade Declined in March Hit by Ukraine War, China Lockdowns

In its latest projections, published Tuesday, the World Trade Organization said it expects the global economy to expand just 2.8% in 2022, weaker than the 3% average between 2010 and 2019. It expects global trade in goods to grow just 3%, after adjusting for price changes, compared with 9.8% in 2021. The Geneva-based WTO said it marked down its expectations because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade in essential goods such as grain and fertilizer, and lockdowns in China “are again disrupting seaborne trade at a time when supply chain pressures appeared to be easing.”

Data from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all point to a pullback in global trade as European consumers wilted under the pressure of surging energy prices, and Chinese factories slowed to a crawl as major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen locked down. The U.S. appetite for imports has held up, but is likely to be challenged as inflation and rising interest rates bite into consumer spending.

Read more at the WSJ


US COVID – ‘We Are Probably Only in the 4th Inning’

Last week, more than 31,000 new cases were reported daily nationwide, a 3% increase from just two weeks ago, according to the New York Times’s COVID database. In big cities like New York City COVID cases have increased nearly 40% in the past two weeks, largely because of the emergence of the BA.2 subvariant. Now some doctors say that rolling back COVID safety precautions may have come too soon, and that the continued rise in cases poses a higher risk to even the most careful followers of COVID safety guidelines.

Dr. Manoj Gandhi, senior medical director at medical instruments maker Thermo Fisher Scientific, said the pandemic is far from over and compared the country’s battle against the virus to a nine-inning baseball game.  “We are probably only in the fourth inning, maybe the top of the fifth,” Gandhi told Fortune. “This virus is not going anywhere anytime soon, and we will end up seeing some [new] different variants down the line.”

Read more at Fortune


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Why It Is Hard to Know Who Needs a Covid Booster: Mysterious T Cells

People 50 years and older can now get the additional booster at least four months after their first. The CDC isn’t pushing those eligible to get the shots, however, and many vaccine experts say healthy people under 65 years old can wait. A big reason: researchers’ limited understanding of the molecular soldiers known as T cells that help mount the immune defense against Covid-19. T cells continue to work against the virus, according to the experts and studies, after antibodies have waned or lost effectiveness because of a variant.

T cells, and another molecular soldier known as memory B cells, are also mobilized by Covid-19 vaccines to protect against the new coronavirus. T cells and B cells play a longer game than antibodies, however. Antibody levels jump after each Covid-19 shot but fall back weeks or months later, as they do with other vaccines. The T cells and memory B cells stick around, researchers have found, an army waiting for when the body becomes infected.

Read more at the WSJ


TSA Extending Travel Mask Mandate for Two Weeks

The Biden administration will extend the federal mask mandate for all transportation networks through May 3, 15 days after it is set to expire amid a new coronavirus surge fueled by the BA.2 variant. The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) mask mandate for travel on airplanes, in airports and on buses and on rail systems was set to expire on April 18. The two-week extension is from an order from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based off the rise in cases from BA.2 since early April.

“At CDC’s recommendation, TSA will extend the security directive and emergency amendment for 15 days, through May 3, 2022,” a CDC spokesperson said. This extension of the mandate is the shortest yet. The mandate has been in place for 14 months and initially went into effect with an expiration date of May 2021.

Read more at The Hill


Hochul Faces Tough Choices After Lt. Gov. Benjamin’s Arrest and Resignation

Now the job she once held had become a political albatross for Governor Hochul. The person she wound up picking for that role — then state Sen. Brian Benjamin — has been indicted in an alleged bribery scheme. On Tuesday, he was arrested and arraigned in federal court in Manhattan. By the end of the day, he announced he had resigned to focus on “explaining in court why his actions were laudable—not criminal.”

The high-profile case puts Hochul in a difficult position as she seeks a full term this year while tethered to Benjamin. While Benjamin is out of office, Hochul could be forced to maintain political ties to Benjamin through the June primary election — and maybe run on the same ticket in November should he win the Democratic nomination and turns down options for bowing out of the race.

Read more at Politico


Noteworthy Corporate Earnings News

Several companies in a variety of industries reported earnings yesterday that may provide insights into the direction of the economy.  

BlackRock Profit Increases 20%, but the firm’s assets under management dipped from over $10 trillion to $9.6 trillion. The firms is a top provider of exchange-traded funds and other low-cost alternatives that track market indexes. But the firm’s actively managed funds, its higher-fee products, made up nearly half of the manager’s fees last quarter, despite only making up about a quarter of BlackRock’s total assets under management.

Delta Airlines reported a Q1 loss, but raised guidance amid ‘all time high’ demand.  The company reported revenue of $8.16 billion during the quarter which was restored to 79% of the levels seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and business operations returned to profitability during the month of March during a surge in consumer demand.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s first-quarter profit dropped 42%, weighed down by lower Wall Street fees and higher expenses. The nation’s biggest bank earned $8.28 billion, or $2.63 per share, compared with $14.3 billion, or $4.50 per share, a year ago. Analysts had expected $2.72 per share, according to FactSet.

Revenue fell 5% to $30.72 billion, ahead of analyst expectations for $30.59 billion.


Oil Prices Extend Gains, Falling Supplies in Focus

Oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday after Moscow said that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, fuelling supply worries, while weak economic data from China and Japan kept a lid on gains.

Brent crude rose by $2.26, or 2.2%, to $106.90 a barrel by 1126 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.02, or 2%, to $102.62. Both benchmarks had surged by more than 6% on Tuesday.

Read more at Reuters


States Compete to Become “Hydrogen Hubs”

States, either in alliances or on their own, are announcing their interest in claiming a share of the $8 billion earmarked for these hubs. Companies worldwide are exploring hydrogen as a fuel for long-haul trucks, factories, trains, ships and even airplanes, though many efforts are in their early stages. Establishing hydrogen hubs could provide the jolt needed for the gas to gain ground in the country.”

Current contenders include West Virginia, which intends to compete alone for a portion of the funds, as well as an alliance between New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey.  A group comprising U.S. Steel Corp., Equinor ASA and Marathon Petroleum announced in February that “they would help work on a hub that would knit together Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.   

Read more at Bloomberg


GM Signs Cobalt Deal with Glencore as Rush for Battery Metals Intensifies

General Motors Co (GM.N) said on Tuesday it would buy cobalt from miner Glencore PLC (GLEN.L) to use in its electric vehicles (EVs), as automakers around the world scramble to stock up on the critical raw material amid supply chain disruptions.  Metals to make batteries that last longer are hard to come by due to supply chain disruptions, which has led to automakers rushing to secure supplies of lithium, nickel and cobalt. The prices of these rare metals have soared to multi-year highs. 

Global automakers, ranging from EV leader Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) to Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), are splurging billions of dollars on developing vehicles for a market that could be worth $5 trillion over the next decade.

Read more at Reuters


MetLife: Zillennial Workforce is Stressed Out

As workforce needs continue to be front and center for companies, research has devised yet another category of people calling them Zillennials. They are a micro-generation born between 1993-1998 that has increased in size by more than 5 million workers over the last 5 years.   MetLife’s annual survey,  U.S. Employee Benefit Trends Study, released March 21, found that this group is very insistent on a work culture and environment that better aligns with their personal values. The report finds they are the least satisfied in their jobs – amid a 20-year low across all generations – and more than half of Zillennials (53%) say having an unfulfilling job is currently a top source of stress.

Over the past twenty years that MetLife has been issuing this report looking at workers’ shifting perceptions of their employers as work-life balance, some new trends have emerged. Purposeful work and supportive cultures have emerged as key retention-driving aspects of the employee experience. 

Read more at EHS Today


Shanghai’s Covid-19 Cases Resume Setting Daily Records After a One-Day Pause, Extending Horizon of Citywide Lockdown

Shanghai reported 26,330 confirmed Covid-19 infections on Wednesday, setting a daily record for the 11th time in 12 days, underscoring how the disease has defied more than a week of lockdowns and quarantines to be deeply entrenched in the population of 25 million people. Symptomatic cases surged to 1,189 cases from 914 a day earlier. The vast majority of infections remained asymptomatic, and no fatality has yet been linked directly to Covid-19 since March 1.

Shanghai authorities ordered a citywide lockdown on April 5, reversing an earlier plan for a two-phase quarantine for both sides of the Huangpu River – Pudong and Puxi – which was supposed to end that day.

Read more at the South China Morning Post


Starbucks Prepares to Expand Worker Benefits That Might Exclude Unionized Staff

Starbucks Chief Executive Howard Schultz is ramping up the company’s campaign against a unionization push in its U.S. stores, saying new benefits being developed for chain employees legally can’t be extended to unionized locations.  In an online forum with U.S. store leaders this week, Mr. Schultz said he is reviewing the company’s benefits to develop an expanded employee-benefit package in an effort to better recruit and retain baristas. 

Mr. Schultz told store leaders that expanded benefits will help reduce attrition among Starbucks workers, but that those new benefits legally can’t go to the growing number of stores that have voted to unionize. Federal law requires separately negotiated contracts for union-represented workers’ pay and benefits, and the company can’t change their compensation unilaterally, Mr. Schultz said, citing Starbucks’s legal counsel.

Read more at the WSJ


 

 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 491

Post: Apr. 12, 2022

8.5% – CPI in March Rises by the Most Since 1981. Core CPI up 6.5% 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% in March compared to the same month last year, according to the latest report released Tuesday. That marked the fastest rise since December 1981. This followed a 7.9% annual increase in February. On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 1.2% in March following a 0.8% monthly rise in February.

Some of the biggest contributors to the latest increase in inflation were food, shelter and gasoline, according to the BLS. In fact, the index tracking gas prices surged to rise 18.3% month-on-month in March, comprising more than half of the total monthly increase in CPI. In February, gasoline had posted a 6.6% monthly increase. But even excluding more volatile food and energy prices, the CPI also posted a marked move higher in March. The so-called core CPI jumped 6.5% in March.

Read more at YahooFinance


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


A Final Report Card on the States’ Response to COVID-19

More than two years into the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s time to draw some conclusions about government policy and results. In a study  published last week as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The authors are University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan and Stephen Moore and Phil Kerpen of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. They compare Covid outcomes in the 50 states and District of Columbia based on three variables: the economy, education and mortality. It’s a revealing study that belies much of the conventional medical and media wisdom during the pandemic, especially in its first year when severe lockdowns were described as the best, and the only moral, policy.

The bottom 10 are dominated by states and D.C. that had the most stringent lockdowns and were among the last to reopen schools. Their economies are for the most part still behind most others in recovering from the pandemic.  New York, whose former Governor Andrew Cuomo was celebrated as a Covid hero, ranks 49th. Albany’s severe and overlong economic shutdown (48th) had no payoff in mortality (47th).

Read the Study


More on Inflation from Pantheon Macroeconomics

On a month-to-month basis, the March headline was boosted by an 18.3% jump in gasoline prices, triggered by the war in Ukraine, and a 1.0% rise in food prices, in line with the recent trend. In the core, rents – 40% of the index – rose 0.43%, also in line with the recent trend, and contributing 0.17% to the m/m increase. Elsewhere, airline fares and lodging costs rose sharply, up 10.7% and 3.3% respectively, These components together contributed 0.12% to the core. But these gains were more than offset by a 3.8% drop in used vehicle prices, which subtracted 0.16%. New vehicle prices are still rising, up 0.2% in March, but the rate of increase has slowed this year after a long run of 1%-plus monthly gains.

The headline inflation rate jump to 8.5% from 7.9%, and the core rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. But these will be the peaks, because a run of favorable base effects from last spring, when used vehicle prices exploded, will exert substantial downward pressure over the next few months. We expect the headline and core rates to drop to xx% and xx% respectively by June, but much depends on the path of vehicle prices and the state of the oil market.

Read more at Pantheon Macro


US COVID – Uptick in Cases in the Northeast

Since the middle of March, the US has averaged between 25,000 and 30,000 new daily COVID-19 cases. But some health experts believe the country may be experiencing a new surge of cases, fueled by the Omicron BA.2 subvariant and masked by incomplete data from unreported at-home testing, a lack of testing among milder cases, and reduced access to testing centers.

Numbers of new cases are beginning to rise in the northeast region of the country; of the 10 states with the highest 7-day case rates per 100,000 people, 7 are in the northeast. Average daily COVID-19 case numbers have increased approximately 53% in Rhode Island and 64% in both New Jersey and New York over the last 2 weeks. Other northeastern states experiencing increases in COVID-19 case loads include Connecticut, Maine, and Vermont. COVID-19 levels in wastewater have increased nationwide over the last 3 weeks, with the northeast showing the highest levels, according to Biobot Analytics. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


High Profile Cases and Public Pandemic Sentiment

Several recent outbreaks among high-profile politicians and celebrities could represent the tip of the iceberg in understanding ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US. Health officials note that politicians and celebrities are tested more frequently than the average individual, and increases in cases among their ranks might signal that more people are becoming infected but experiencing mild or no symptoms.

More than 70 high-profile people tested positive after an event known as the Gridiron Dinner in Washington, DC, including New York City Mayor Eric Adams, US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsak, US Attorney General Merrick Garland, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, several US lawmakers, and many others. Some of those who were infected are reportedly up-to-date on their vaccinations. Meanwhile, less than 10% of the US population feels that COVID-19 represents a serious crisis in the country, 17% say it is not a crisis at all, and 73% feel the pandemic is a manageable problem, according to an Axios-Ipsos poll. Notably, an average of 500 people in the US die daily from COVID-19. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


Some More Details on the 2022 New York State Budget

The New York State Legislature approved a FY 2023 State Budget over the weekend. The approximately $220 billion agreement between the Legislature and Governor, boosted by federal funds and a tax surplus, includes several measures to aid small businesses, enhance workforce development initiatives, and expand childcare eligibility.

The budget includes continued funding for the Manufacturers Intermediary Apprenticeship Program (MIAP) to sustain the program and additional monies to expand and enhance the program statewide. It also included small business tax relief – that will expand the small business tax relief subtraction modification under the personal income tax. It also will expand the definition of a small business to include a limited liability company, partnership, or S corporation that is not a farm business and has a New York gross business income less than $1.5 million.  fortunately, the final state budget does not include a proposal to ban the use of natural gas in most new construction buildings, though this is still under consideration by the legislature. 

2022 New York State Budget: Highlights for Manufacturers


NY Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin Resigns Following Arrest in Campaign Finance Fraud Case

New York Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin has resigned after he surrendered to authorities to face campaign finance fraud-related charges in connection with a past campaign, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced. “I have accepted Brian Benjamin’s resignation effective immediately. While the legal process plays out, it is clear to both of us that he cannot continue to serve as Lieutenant Governor. New Yorkers deserve absolute confidence in their government, and I will continue working every day to deliver for them,” Hochul said in a statement Tuesday afternoon.

Appointed by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) last year, Benjamin was planning to run alongside her in their bid for a full term. Hochul served as former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s lieutenant governor and took office in August 2021 after Cuomo resigned amid sexual assault allegations. 

Read more at NBC New York


Chaotic Trading in Energy, Metals and Food Spills Into Real World

Wild swings in futures markets are complicating business for the people and companies who actually produce and use natural gas, zinc or soybeans, to name a few. They are driving speculators and others from the markets, an exodus that has led in turn to even choppier trading and higher prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added to market disruption, especially in energy and grain sectors. Bouts of inclement weather and supply-chain problems have complicated delivery in some markets.

Appalachian coal, soybean oil, oats, canola, rapeseed oil, natural gas in the Netherlands, wheat in Paris and Chicago, gasoline, diesel, propane, palm oil, copper and tin have all notched new highs in 2022. Soybeans, lean hogs, frozen pork bellies and zinc aren’t far off their records.  The surge has been propelled by demand from consumers emerging from the pandemic flush with savings and government stimulus and ready to spend.

Read more at the WSJ


Fed’s Brainard Says Lowering Inflation Is Central Bank’s Key Mission

“Inflation is too high,” said Fed governor Lael Brainard, who is awaiting Senate confirmation to serve as the Fed’s vice chairwoman. “Getting inflation down is going to be our most important task,” she said, speaking Tuesday at The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, as the central bank is raising interest rates as part of its most aggressive effort in decades to curb price pressures.

Fed officials signaled they could raise rates by a half percentage point at their meeting early next month and begin trimming their $9 trillion asset portfolio, according to minutes of the Fed’s March 15-16 meeting released last week. The meeting minutes followed remarks by Ms. Brainard last week that sent bond yields rising amid anticipation of tighter Fed policy this year.

Read more at the WSJ


Canada to Invest C$2 billion on Mineral Strategy for EV Battery Supply Chain

 Canada’s federal budget will include an investment of at least C$2 billion ($1.6 billion) for a strategy to accelerate the production and processing of critical minerals needed for the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain, two senior government sources said. The investment could be spread over more than one year, but the sources declined to comment on the time frame.

“Canada has an abundance of valuable critical mineral deposits, and with the right investments, this sector can create thousands of new good jobs, grow our economy, and make Canada a vital part of the growing global critical minerals industry,” said Adrienne Vaupshas, press secretary for Finance Minister Freeland.

Read more at Reuters


EPA Will Allow More Ethanol in Gas This Summer in Bid to Tame Prices

The Biden administration plans to temporarily allow high-ethanol content gasoline to be sold in the hot summer months in a bid to tame high fuel prices. The decision will allow gasoline with 15% ethanol to be sold between June 1 and Sept. 15. Normally only a 10% ethanol blend can be sold during that time period to reduce smog caused by the 15% blend’s higher volatility.

Allowing fuels with a higher ethanol content will lessen reliance on oil and give drivers more options, senior administration officials said, adding that it could save drivers 10 cents a gallon off current prices. Oil-industry officials have questioned whether such moves would lower prices. Higher ethanol blending can sometimes raise prices on refiners. Corn prices, like oil, have also seen sharp increases this year because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Read more at the WSJ


US airports top ranking of ‘world’s busiest’ hubs in 2021, Total Traffic Still off 2019 Levels

Eight airports in the United States were in the top 10 in the Airports Council International‘s (ACI) preliminary list based on passenger traffic, along with two airports in China. At the top of the list was the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, which saw roughly 75.7 million passengers last year. It was followed by Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, which saw nearly 62.5 million passengers in 2021, and Denver International Airport, with about 58.8 million passengers.

According to ACI, the total number of global passengers in 2021 is estimated to have been close to 4.5 billion, which was an increase of almost 25 percent from 2020. Despite the increase recorded last year, however, passenger traffic figures were still down more than 50 percent from 2019 results.

Read more at The Hill


China’s Li Issues Third Growth Warning as COVID Takes Toll

China’s Premier Li Keqiang issued a third warning about economic growth risks in less than a week, suggesting heightened concern about the outlook as widespread Covid lockdowns disrupt production and spending. Authorities should “add a sense of urgency” when implementing existing policies, Li told local authorities at a seminar Monday. China will study and adopt stronger economic policies as needed to support the economy, he said.

The comments come days after similar warnings from Li, highlighting the toll the economy is taking from lockdowns and other virus control measures imposed to curb the latest wave of omicron outbreaks. Nomura Holdings Inc. economists said the risk of recession is rising in China, estimating that about 373 million people in 45 cities are now under full or partial lockdown, making up 40% of China’s gross domestic product.

Read more at Bloomberg


2022 Machine Tool Orders Near $1B

U.S. manufacturers ordered $479.3 million worth of machine tools during February, an 8.9% rise over January’s order value and a 27.1% increase over the February 2021 figure. Comparing two months of machine-tool new orders, machine shops and other manufacturers’ capital investments are 30.4% higher than the comparable 2021 total.  The $919.46 million year-to-date increase in order values compared to January-February 2021 represent the highest total for that period since 1998.

“The industry seems to be carrying the momentum of 2021 into the beginning of 2022, recording the best start to the year in over two decades,” according to Douglas K. Woods, president of AMT – the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology. AMT compiles the monthly U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report, from which the new-orders data is sourced.

Read more at American Machinist


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Daily Briefing – 490

Post: Apr. 11, 2022

Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago. “Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP.

Economists slashed their forecast for growth this year. On average they see inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, down a full percentage point from the average forecast six months ago, though still higher than the 2.2% average annual growth rate in the decade before the pandemic.

Read more at the WSJ


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Four of the Top Five Metropolitan Areas for New COVID Cases are Currently in New York, Syracuse Tops the List

While COVID-19 cases have remained low in the U.S. since the decline of the omicron wave this winter, the “stealth” BA.2 variant has reached the U.S. and is causing a rise in cases in some parts of the country, particularly in regions of New York state. The BA.2 strain is currently the dominant strain in the U.S., accounting for about 3 out of 4 new coronavirus cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Health experts had said that the U.S. would likely see an uptick in new coronavirus cases, reflecting what occurred in parts of Europe and Asia. However, a full-on surge like delta and omicron is less likely, according to experts.

Read more at The Hill


New York Fed: Public Expectations for March 2023 Inflation Hit 6.6% Record

U.S. consumers boosted their expectations for inflation and household spending in the year ahead as the price of gas and food steepens according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.  Expectations for where inflation will be in one year rose to 6.6% in March, the highest since the survey was launched in 2013 and up from 6.0% in February. Household spending was seen growing 7.7% in the year ahead, also a series high. Just 23% saw their household finances improving in the year ahead, the smallest share since the survey began.

Americans are experiencing the worst bout of inflation in decades, and it is getting worse: economists polled by Reuters expect a report out on Tuesday will show consumer prices rose 8.4% in March, up from 7.9% in February, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drives up food and energy prices.

Read more at YahooFinance


US COVID – A New COVID Wave is Probably Coming, and America Doesn’t Seem to Care

Anthony Fauci said this week that a surge of COVID is likely this fall, and an increase in cases over even the next few weeks would not be surprising. Fauci’s remarks contrast with a sudden vanishing of the Omicron wave that gripped the country in December and January (and ruined many people’s holiday plans). Cases fell so far so fast that big cities like New York relaxed mandates that had been in place for nearly two years.

When it comes to the blissful oblivion of many to the pandemic’s continued existence, “motivated reasoning” is to blame, says psychologist Paul Thagard, a philosopher and cognitive scientist who authored the paper “The cognitive science of COVID-19: Acceptance, denial, and belief change.” Regarding COVID, “You have to mitigate the risk of the worst thing without having a big debate about whether or not it’s going to happen today. People aren’t really having that conversation.”

Read more at Fortune


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Are Some People Resistant to COVID-19? Geneticists Are on the Hunt.

Thousands of people repeatedly exposed to the virus never got sick. Scientists are racing to understand if they might have a genetic resistance to the virus—and whether the trait could be harnessed to develop new drugs against the disease. “There used to be a tendency to more think about the pathogen in terms of severity—it’s a severe pathogen or a mild pathogen,” says molecular virologist Johan Nordgren at Sweden’s Linköping University. Relatively less attention was paid to a host and whether their genes affect their ability to fight off an infection, he says.

In the last two decades or so, though, scientists have been conducting so-called genome-wide association studies to identify certain genes or regions of DNA that may be linked to specific diseases. They do this by comparing the genetic sequences of infected individuals with those who are healthy and seeking correlations between mutations and resistance. While genetic resistance to viral infections isn’t widespread, the fact that it happens at all has ignited interest in similar mutations in COVID-exposed individuals.

Read more at Nat Geo


Shanghai Has Recorded More Than 130,000 COVID Cases—and No Deaths

In a Covid-19 outbreak that has locked 25 million people at home, the city of Shanghai has reported more than 130,000 cases since March 1, but says there have been no deaths and currently only one patient with severe illness. The absence of deaths, and the low incidence of severe illness recorded in Shanghai as cases rise, stands out compared with outbreaks elsewhere, even accounting for the fact that Covid deaths often lag behind infections by several weeks.

But health and data experts caution that calculating and comparing Covid’s toll in China and elsewhere is difficult due to challenges including determining exactly how people have died, differences in vaccination rates and diverging methods for testing and recording pandemic data.

Read more at the WSJ


White House Adviser: Extending TSA Mask Mandate ‘Absolutely’ Still on the Table

A top White House COVID-19 adviser on Monday said that extending the federal mask mandate for all transportation networks, which is set to expire next week, is “absolutely” under consideration.  “This is a CDC decision and I think it is absolutely on the table,” White House COVID-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha said on NBC’s “Today.”

Jha said that Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky will make the decision on extending the mask mandate for transportation networks based on a scientific framework that the agency is developing. He also said that framework will be available in the “next few days.”

Read more at The Hill


10-year Treasury Yield Tops 2.76% Monday

Ahead of bank earnings and inflation data later in the week, investors are keeping their eyes on the 10-year Treasury yield, which continues to spike to multi-year highs. Early Monday, the rate climbed 5 basis points to 2.76%, notching a level last seen in 2019. The momentum gathered pace last week after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the central bank’s balance sheet would be reduced “at a rapid pace” as soon as May, only to be followed up by similar sentiment during the release of FOMC minutes.

The tightening cycle in the U.S. is also making way for some interesting shifts as policy diverges across the globe. The yield on China’s 10-year government bond fell to 2.75% overnight, marking the first time it has been below the rate of its U.S counterpart in 12 years. The fading premium comes as Beijing sticks to an accommodative monetary stance as prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns – like the one in Shanghai – weigh on its economy.

Read more at CNBC


With New York District Lines On Hold, Judge Blesses Possible Backup Plan

A New York appeals court judge on Friday signed off on the appointment of a neutral expert to prepare new congressional district lines that could be used if the state’s highest court upholds a lower-court ruling that struck down maps drawn by Democratic lawmakers. Justice Stephen K. Lindley of the Fourth Appellate Department, emphasized in his decision that the substitute maps would only be a backup measure meant to preserve a range of possible remedies as the courts consider a broader legal challenge to the maps brought by Republicans.

But Justice Lindley’s directive raised the specter that an increasingly tangled fight over New York’s freshly drawn congressional districts could yet veer away from Democrats months after they enacted a map that favors their candidates in 22 of 26 districts, and require the state to delay this year’s primary contests from June until August.


Where to Start with Robotics and Automation

Today, the major question is not if a manufacturer will adopt automation and advanced technologies, but rather when and how. Adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies is a matter of survival – not only for large manufacturing companies, but also for small and mid-sized manufacturers.The long-term viability of these businesses likely depends on their ability to increase productivity while reducing costs.

Of the new Industry 4.0 applications being deployed in manufacturing operations, applied robotics have experienced the most growth. But more often than not, first-time adopters are apprehensive for fear of making an expensive mistake. According to the Manufacturing Institute, 1 in 3 manufacturers report that insufficient resources and expertise could limit their investment in emerging technologies.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Fortune Releases Their 100 Best Places to Work List

So who are this year’s winners? Top of the list, for the second year in a row: Cisco. It also has the distinction of having been on the list for all 25 years. It has long prioritized its employees’ well-being, and never more than during the pandemic.  Number two on the list is Hilton. Despite the pain of the pandemic in the travel industry, Hilton pressed ahead with multiple commitments to helping its employees, including a strong emphasis on diversity and inclusion.

And number three Wegmans Food Markets. This grocery chain, which spreads across seven eastern states, has managed to successfully compete against much bigger chains for over 100 years by taking extra care of its workers. It’s best known for an extremely generous scholarship. The current number of open job-postings at these 100 companies is 238,959—the most we’ve ever seen in the history of the list.

View the list at Fortune


JetBlue is Cutting its Summer Schedule to Avoid Further Flight Disruptions

JetBlue scrapped more than 300 flights over the weekend, with nearly a fifth of all its flights canceled on Saturday. That’s on top of hiring 2,500 workers this year and perks to keep staff on the job. It’s now offering a $1,000 bonus to flight attendants who don’t call out of work through May 31, as well as an extra $100 per trip for attendants who pick up open flights on days off.

“We’ve already reduced May capacity 8-10% and you can expect to see a similar size capacity pull for the remainder of the summer,” JetBlue COO Joanna Geraghty declared. “Despite these challenges and, based on your feedback that the schedule is wound too tight, we know the best plan is to reduce capacity now. I think everyone recognizes that the industry still remains very much in recovery mode, so we believe this proactive step is the right decision.”

Read more at CNBC


West Coast Port Labor Talks Carry High Stakes for Economy, Midterms

More than 22,000 unionized workers at nearly 30 ports along the West Coast are set to begin renegotiating their contract next month against the backdrop of an already-imperiled supply chain, a historically tight labor market and looming midterm elections.

The whirlwind of economic and political factors significantly ups the stakes for the talks, which take place every six years and have in the past stalled traffic at the busiest ports in the U.S. The Biden administration plans to keep close tabs on the talks — and intervene immediately should a breakdown appear imminent.

Read more at Politico


How Manufacturers can Prevent Becoming Cybersecurity Targets

The  alliantGroup writes that by 2019 manufacturing had moved up to the eighth most targeted sector and in 2021 it moved into second place (behind finance). It is clear that, unlike other industries, the manufacturing sector is learning cybersecurity the hard way!

While hackers may lock down your system, halt production, and demand a ransom, it can get worse. They also can compromise a company’s intellectual property, patents, and financial information. Worse still, they might breach a system and do nothing at all. That’s because bad actors know that there’s always a bigger fish to fry at the end of the supply chain. A defenseless supplier can provide relatively easy access to a more valuable target company. 
 
 Read more Tube & Pipe Journal


5 Takeaways from the First Round of France’s Presidential Election

French President Emmanuel Macron took first place, ahead of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, in the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday, but he is on course for a far closer second-round clash than five years ago.  While polling suggests Macron should retain the presidency in two weeks, first round results show the incumbent can’t rest on his laurels.

Le Pen will be able to count on voters from far-right TV-pundit-turned-politician Eric Zemmour, who called on his supporters to back her on April 24. Meanwhile, leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon fared better than expected and brings a heavy dose of uncertainty to the mix as his voters are a diverse bunch. Many are likely to abstain in the second round, while others will divide up between the French president and Le Pen. 

Read more at Politico


 

 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 489

Post: Apr. 10, 2022

$220 Billion – The 2022 State Budget By the Numbers

A litany of policy proposals got included in the budget, including changes to state bail laws and the temporary legalization of to-go cocktails. The budget though is ultimately a financial document filled with the dollars and cents needed to keep the Empire State chugging along until another fiscal year concludes at the end of next March.

  • $31.5 billion – Total amount of total school aid compared to the $31.2 billion proposed by the governor in January. 
  • $7 billion – Total amount of new child care expansion over four years.
  • $4.2 billion – Total amount of an environmental bond act that will go before voters this November. 
  • $600 million – Amount of state support authorized in the state budget to help fund a $1.4 billion stadium for the Buffalo Bills.  
  • $750,000 – Amount for Manufacturing Apprentices.

The deal also includes the suspension of the State’s Gas tax for seven months from June 1 – December 31.


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


UN: Global Food Prices Hit Record High in March

World food prices jumped nearly 13% in March to a new record high as the war in Ukraine caused turmoil in markets for staple grains and edible oils, the U.N. food agency said on Friday. The February figure was previously put at 140.7, which was a record at the time. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 159.3 points last month versus an upwardly revised 141.4 for February.

In separate cereal supply and demand estimates on Friday, the FAO cut its projection of world wheat production in 2022 to 784 million tons, from 790 million last month, as it factored in the possibility that at least 20% of Ukraine’s winter crop area would not be harvested.

Read more at Reuters


Logistics Index Hits All-time High

the Logistic Manager’s Index report for March showed an overall LMI reading of 76.2. That figure is the highest in the history of the index, up (+1.0) from February’s reading of 75.2. The average over the first quarter of 2022 was 74.5, well above the all-time average of 65.2. The first three months of 2022 have been marked by high levels of inventory, and insufficient capacity to deal with it. This trend started at the end of 2021 when inventories increased by 2.4% in December 2021 – an all-time month-to-month record.

The growth in this month’s index is fueled by metrics from across the index. Continued inventory congestion has driven Inventory Costs, Warehousing Prices, and overall aggregate logistics costs to all-time high levels. This is putting even more pressure on already-constrained capacity. Warehousing Capacity hit an all-time low in March.

Read more at Materials Handling & Logistics


US COVID 

The CDC is reporting 80.1 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 980,220 deaths. The decline in daily incidence tapered off at approximately 25-26,000 new cases per day from March 25-April 4, but the average jumped to 26,845 on April 5. Daily mortality continues to decline, down to 533 deaths per day on April 5, an 80% decline from the recent high in early February. Notably, the average daily mortality is at its lowest level since August 2, 2021. 

The US has administered 563 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Daily vaccinations have increased slightly over the past several days. Based on the timing of the increase, it is likely a result of the US FDA’s authorization of a second booster dose of the mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for certain individuals. A total of 256 million individuals have received at least 1 vaccine dose, which corresponds to 77.1% of the entire US population.  A total of 218 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 65.7% of the total population. Approximately 75.6% of adults are fully vaccinated.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update 

Vaccine Stats as of April 8:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.7% of all New Yorkers – 16,498,222 (plus 3,259 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,716,803 (plus 406).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.3% of all New Yorkers – 14,787,582 (plus 4,356).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,507,651 (plus 442). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,494,039
  • In the Hudson Valley – 894,012

The Governor updated COVID data through April 8.  There were 10 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,374

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 948.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 3.39%    –   19.68 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 3.78%   –   18.88 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Variant Vax Strategy for Long Haul Is Needed, FDA Official Says

A top U.S. health regulator said that asking people to frequently get Covid-19 boosters wasn’t sustainable because of vaccine fatigue and that authorities needed to develop a long-term strategy for protecting the public from the virus as it evolves. Yet Dr. Marks and the experts said there are serious challenges to tweaking vaccines as needed, especially in time for the winter, when there could be another wave of infections.

Members of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, outlined several key features of a potential long-term plan: preventing severe disease, developing criteria for when to update vaccines and collecting data to support the efficacy of the shots.  Several of the experts also said a future Covid-19 vaccine should probably target more than one strain of the virus, which could protect against those currently circulating and potentially others that are yet to emerge.

Read more at the WSJ


Should You Be Worried if  You Get Infected With the BA.2 Variant?

Most people who are up-to-date with Covid-19 vaccines face little risk of landing in the hospital after a BA.2 infection, data suggest. Prior infection with another variant also bolsters the body’s defenses against BA.2, research has shown. And while hospitalization rates tend to lag behind new-case trends, the low levels of people hospitalized with Covid-19 as BA.2 has become dominant across the U.S. suggests that immunity may be strong enough in much of the country to avoid a big surge in severe cases, some public-health experts have said.

The virus still poses a threat to personal health and the public at large, doctors and officials have said. Some people, even those who are vaccinated, could suffer lingering effects of infection known as long Covid, some infectious-disease experts said. Covid-19 also remains a significant threat to the unvaccinated and to people with autoimmune conditions, public-health experts have warned.

Read more at the WSJ


Emmanuel Macron and Far-Right Leader Marine Le Pen Qualify for the Second Round of French Presidential Election

Projections by French polling firm Ipsos suggest the French president won 28.4 percent of the vote at the end of the first round of voting. His rival Le Pen, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, garnered 23.4 percent of the vote, according to the same projections. It is Le Pen’s third appearance —and her highest ever showing — in the first round of a presidential election. While polling suggests Macron should retain the presidency in two weeks, he is on course for a far closer second-round clash than in the 2017 election, when he also faced Le Pen.

When it comes to NATO, Le Pen has triggered alarm by stating her desire to pull the EU’s only nuclear power out of the alliance’s integrated command structure “so as to be no longer caught up in conflicts that are not ours.” 

Read more at Politico


NLRB General Counsel Aims to Drastically Change Employers’ Rights

For nearly 75 years, employers have held the right to gather employees at work for mandatory meetings to discuss, in a non-coercive manner, the employer’s views concerning unionization. On April 7, 2022, however, National Labor Relations Board (“NLRB” or “Board”) General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo issued a memorandum to all NLRB Field offices announcing that she will ask the NLRB to overturn this precedent and find that meetings of this sort violate of the National Labor Relations Act (the “Act”).

As it stands today, the NLRB precedent established in the Babcock & Wilcox Co. case remains intact, but the memorandum foreshadows that General Counsel Abruzzo will be submitting one or more cases to the Board in the near future to attack that precedent through the NLRB litigation process.

Read more at Harris Beach


Sanctions Risk Weakening Dollars Global Dominance as Currency of Choice

Many of the recent sanctions leveled on Russia have power because they’re based on the U.S. dollar, which is the most widely used currency in global financial markets, trade and central bank reserves. However, some are cautioning that weaponizing the greenback in this fashion could erode its dominance, stoking fears that smaller currencies like the renminbi could gain a bigger role on the international stage.

China is already buying Russian energy with the yuan, while India is looking into a rupee-ruble trade arrangement. “Wars upend the dominance of currencies and serve as a doula to the birth of new monetary systems,” cautioned Zoltan Pozsar, analyst at Credit Suisse.

Read more at Chartbook


Senators to Restart Bipartisan Immigration Reform Talks

A bipartisan immigration deal appears to be congressional Democrats’ best hope of making good on their pledge to reform immigration, after Democrats’ attempts to go it alone as part of a sweeping bill unraveled last year. They would face a significant uphill climb getting such a reform deal heading into the November election, where Republicans plan to make the issue a key line of attack. 

But Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told The Hill that they want to bring together a group of senators interested in trying to revive immigration discussions — a perennial policy white whale for Congress — after a two-week recess. 

Read more at The Hill


Nucor Invests in Nuclear Small Modular Reactor Venture

NuScale executives have agreed to buy $15 million worth of shares of Spring Valley Acquisition Corp. via a private placement that will help fund the commercialization of NuScale’s technologies. NuScale and Spring Valley in December agreed to combine in a deal valuing the combined company at $1.9 billion. The NuScale team has signed 20 memoranda of understanding with energy companies and other organizations to build their carbon-free small reactors across the world starting late this decade.

“We are looking for safe and reliable sources of power generation that are consistent with our sustainability goals,” Leon Topalian, Nucor’s president and CEO, said in a statement. “The continued development of small modular nuclear reactors is critical to ensure our nation has carbon-free, baseload power, which is why we are making this investment.”

Read more at IndustryWeek


Lockheed Confirms Hypersonic Weapon Concept

A Lockheed Martin-led team conducted a successful flight test of a new hypersonic weapon concept, achieving speeds above Mach 5 and altitudes higher than 65,000 feet. A release by the research consortium stated that the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) test flight “furthers the understanding of operations in the high-speed flight regime.”

Lockheed is known to be developing high-speed systems for combating high-value targets quickly from hundreds or even thousands of miles away – so-called, hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic systems are among the U.S. Dept. of Defense’s top developmental priorities, along with establishing secure domestic supply base. In May 2021, Lockheed along with Northrop Grumman conducted a live-fire hypersonic strike test system, and in October the company announced a new manufacturing plant for hypersonic missile systems in Courtland, Ala.

Read more at American Machinist


Jobless Claims: 166,000 Americans Filed New Claims Last Week

U.S. first-time unemployment claims fell much more than expected last week to reach the lowest level since 1968, with the rate of new layoffs and firings staying low compared to pre-pandemic averages.

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended April 2: 166,000 vs. 200,000 expected and a revised 171,0000 during prior week.
  • Continuing claims, week ended March 26: 1.523 million and a revised 1.506 million during prior week

The number of new claims filed last week marked the least in more than five decades and represented a third consecutive week that new claims were below 200,000. The prior week’s new claims were also markedly downwardly revised to 171,000, from the 202,000. Some of the volatility in the most recent weekly jobless claims data likely reflects a change in the way the Labor Department adjusted the figures to account for seasonal factors. Starting in Thursday’s report, the Labor Department returned to using “multiplicative” seasonal adjustment factors for the data. Over the course of the pandemic, the Labor Department had been using “additive” seasonal adjustment factors, which help smooth out large shifts in the data — as had been the case with the anomalous spikes in jobless claims that took place during the early wave of lockdowns in 2020.

Read more at YahooFinance


Amazon Objecting to Union’s Victory in New York.  Union Objecting to Amazon’s Victory in Alabama

Amazon.com accused the new union at a New York City warehouse of threatening workers unless they voted to organize, an assertion an attorney for the labor group called “really absurd.” The U.S. National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) is giving Amazon until April 22 to back up its objections to last week’s election in New York, in which Staten Island workers voted to form the company’s first U.S. union. Amazon had requested extra time to provide evidence because its objections are “substantial,” it said in a filing Wednesday.

A second labor group, the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU), which was losing a bid to organize an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, also filed objections on Thursday to that union election.  

Read more at Reuters


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Boeing’s


 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 488

Post: Apr. 6, 2022

Fed Minutes: Officials Plan to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet by $95 Billion a Month

Officials “generally agreed” that a maximum of $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities would be allowed to roll off, phased in over three months and likely starting in May. In addition to the balance sheet talk, officials also discussed the pace of interest rate hikes ahead, with members leaning toward more aggressive moves. “Many participants noted that one or more 50 basis point increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings,” the minutes said.

The FOMC remains quite bullish on growth – “participants judged that economic fundamentals remained solid and that they expected above-trend growth to continue, sustaining a strong labor market.”  Fear of a wage-price spiral is clear – “Consistent with a tight labor market, nominal wages were rising at the fastest pace in many years… Many participants commented that they expected the labor market to remain strong and wage pressures to remain elevated.” Only “a few” members saw signs of hope of easing wage pressures, in the rising participation rate; we think the next ECI readings, a few days before the FOMC meeting, will come as a pleasant surprise, but won’t prevent a 50 bp hike.

Read more at CNBC


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Kendra’s Law Expansion Final Hurdle in New York State Budget

An expansion of law that requires people in a mental health crisis receive treatment remains one of the final stumbling blocks for lawmakers and Gov. Kathy Hochul as they seek to forge a final state budget agreement. The effort to expand and extend the law was part of a broader package of proposals by Gov. Kathy Hochul to combat concerns over rising violent crime in New York. 

Advocates, including Harvey Rosenthal of the New York Association of Psychiatric Rehabilitation Services, have opposed the law being extended to include provisions for court-ordered treatment. Some lawmakers, including Democratic state Assemblyman Tom Abinanti, are worried the expansion of the law will have unintended consequences for vulnerable people. Abinanti is worried people on the autism spectrum could be mistaken for someone facing a mental health crisis and be swept up in the process. 

Read more at Spectrum News


Economic Development Reform Part of State Budget Negotiations

Proposals advanced by the state Legislature creating greater oversight of New York’s billions in economic development subsidies are being  considered as part of budget negotiations. In several instances, key points of contention have also emerged between lawmakers and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration concerning the depth of oversight or who will conduct it.

One of the matters under negotiation would create a so-called “Database of Deals. ” The proposal would require the state’s economic development arm, Empire State Development, to create a searchable database of initiatives receiving subsidies and economic development benefits. It would require reporting how many jobs were being created and what type: Full-time, part-time or contract. ESD would also have to provide information about the number of jobs being filled by women and minorities. The proposal was part of both the Assembly and state Senate’s one-house budget resolutions. 

Read more at the Times Union


US COVID – FDA Advisory Panel is Discussing Ways to Evolve the US Vaccine Strategy 

An FDA Advisory Panel is Discussing Ways to Evolve the US Vaccine Strategy (New York Times) A federal advisory committee of outside experts is meeting Wednesday to help fashion the U.S. coronavirus vaccine strategy for the rest of the year. The meeting, which can be watched live on YouTube, represents a kind of transition point for the federal government, one troubled with many uncertainties.

Many scientists have concluded that the existing vaccines need to be retooled to meet the evolving virus. Federal officials are anxious to figure out how to do that as soon as possible, lest the nation confront a scenario when the virus resurges in the fall and the vaccines’ defenses are depleted. The committee is hearing from a cast of luminaries, including experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the World Health Organization and the FDA’s office of vaccine research.

Read more at the NY Times


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Title 42 Expiration Snags COVID Funding Deal 

Congress appears poised to punt a $10 billion deal on coronavirus relief until after a looming two-week break, as multiple stumbling blocks are complicating quick passage of the agreement. A bipartisan group of senators announced this week that they had clinched an agreement for long-sought coronavirus aid, with Democrats and the White House hoping to quickly deliver it to President Biden’s desk after weeks of negotiations. 

Republicans are demanding votes to include reinstating a policy from the Trump administration known as Title 42, which allows for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the border and blocks them from seeking asylum due to the risk of the virus.  If the fight is resolved, the coronavirus deal could fairly quickly pass through the Senate. But there were little signs of that Tuesday, as Democratic senators said they had been told there would not be amendment votes and Republicans blocked the deal from advancing.  

Read more at The Hill


U.S. Trade Gap Stays Close to Record

The U.S. trade deficit held close to a record in February as the merchandise shortfall shrank and the surplus in services declined, partly reflecting the impact of broadcast rights for the Olympics. The February gap in goods and services trade was little changed at $89.2 billion after a record shortfall in January. 

The value of imports rose 1.3% in February to a record $317.8 billion and exports climbed 1.8% to $228.6 billion. Services imports increased by $2.4 billion to a record $51.6 billion, with about half of the rise coming from the biggest monthly increase in charges for use of intellectual property since 2016. That probably reflects a temporary boost from rights fees to broadcast the winter Olympics, consistent with such spikes in previous years.

Read more at Bloomberg


Deutsche Bank is First to Forecast US Recession for 2023 With Unemployment Rate Rising to 5.1

Deutsche Bank predicted the U.S. will fall into a recession in 2023 that will cause unemployment to go up to 5.1 percent due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to bring down inflation.  Deutsche said the recession will be ‘moderate,’ but it would serve as yet another blow to already struggling Americans, CNBC reported.  

‘The US economy is expected to take a major hit from the extra Fed tightening by late next year and early 2024,’ the bank’s economists said in a note to clients Tuesday. Deutsche added that while it expects the US economy to take a hit, the outlook past that is relatively positive.  

Read more at the Daily Mail


The EU is Preparing a Ban on Russian Coal Imports

Since the Ukraine invasion began in late February, European leaders have hesitated to ban Russian energy imports, as the region still heavily depends on the country for coal, oil and gas. In 2020, Russia accounted for over 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports, 35.5% of its oil imports, and almost 20% of its coal imports, according to EU data.

However, after evidence emerged last week suggesting that Russian troops massacre civilians in Bucha while retreating from Kyiv, some European leaders have grown convinced that stronger measures against Russia may be necessary. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—the head of the EU’s governing body – proposed the ban on Russian coal imports and other sanctions Tuesday. 

Read more at Fortune


U.S. Wants More Oil From Canada but Not a New Pipeline to Bring It

Biden administration officials are seeking ways to boost oil imports from Canada, people familiar with the situation say, but with one big caveat—they don’t want to resurrect the Keystone XL pipeline that President Biden effectively killed on his first day in office. Canada could export some more oil via rail, according to analysts and others familiar with the situation, and it could also pump more oil by increasing pressure on existing lines or by installing larger pipelines along permitted routes.

Those options, however, offer limited potential because rail transport is expensive and existing pipelines are at or near capacity. Longer term, Canadian officials and oil-industry analysts say expanding the existing Keystone pipeline network would offer a bigger, more efficient solution. The XL expansion was to carry 830,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude from Alberta to Nebraska, where the pipeline would meet up with the existing Keystone pipeline, and then on to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Read more at the WSJ


U.S. Allies to Release Close to 60 Million Barrels of Oil From Reserves

U.S. allies are planning to release close to 60 million additional barrels of oil from their reserves. The 31-member nations of the International Energy Agency—which include the U.S., most of Europe, Australia, Japan, Mexico and others—are planning to announce a new reserve release totaling 120 million barrels, officials said, the largest release in the IEA’s 47-year history. Around half of that amount will come from U.S. reserves, which were included in Washington’s previously announced decision to release 180 million barrels of oil over six months.

That leaves around 60 million barrels of additional oil that will hit the market because of the IEA decision, which is expected to be announced by the end of the week. Those barrels are expected to be released over six months to track the U.S. schedule, an official said. IEA nations on March 1 announced the release of 60 million barrels—including 30 million barrels from the U.S.—in what was then the agency’s biggest-ever release of reserves.

Read more at the WSJ


GM and Honda to Produce ‘Attainable EVs’ in Bid to Surpass Tesla Sales

General Motors (GM.N) and Honda Motor Co (7267.T) said on Tuesday they will develop a series of lower-priced electric vehicles based on a new joint platform, producing potentially millions of cars from 2027 in a bid to beat Tesla (TSLA.O) in sales. The announcement expands on plans for GM to begin building two electric SUVs for Honda starting in 2024 – the Honda Prologue and an Acura model. 

The automakers said the new deal is for “affordable” EVs. GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said Tuesday at an Axios event the pricing will come in below the $30,000 price tag planned for the electric Chevrolet Equinox SUV. She said the new lower-priced vehicles would be “attainable EVs.”

Read more at Reuters


IKEA CEO on Russian Business – The Right Way to Respond “Was Not Obvious”

Jesper Brodin, the CEO Ikea—is one of many CEOs who has wrestled over the last six weeks with how to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The company built up a sizable business in Russia, with nearly $2 billion in annual sales last year. And the right way to respond to Putin’s invasion, Brodin said n in a podcast last week, “was not obvious.”

The company had to consider the effects of a decision not just on its business, but on its employees, and on innocent people in Russia. In the end, it closed its Ikea stores, and discontinued furniture exports to Russia, but kept open Ingka’s shopping malls to make sure Russians continued to have access to food and pharmaceuticals. “I myself have been part of the generations at Ikea that for more than 20 years have been building up our business in Russia… It’s a little bit like the pandemic—there is no manual or guidebook for us here. It’s about weighing all aspects of the situation, trying to get a 360-degree perspective of the situation, and using our moral and ethical compass to do the right thing.”

Listen to the Leadership Next Podcast at Spotify


Shanghai COVID Lockdown – GM Keeps Plants Running in China by Asking Workers to Live in Factory, Sleep on Floors

As the biggest city in China goes on lockdown, General Motors is taking extreme measures to keep new car production going, including asking workers to sleep on factory floors. That lockdown is forcing automakers and suppliers to scramble and make tough decisions.  Leaders in Shanghai, China’s financial epicenter that’s located on the southeastern coast, started a two-stage lockdown Monday to try to control a massive COVID-19 outbreak.

A source familiar with GM’s joint venture with Chinese state-owned automaker SAIC Motor Corp. told the Detroit Free Press Tuesday that it has kept production going in Shanghai by keeping employees living in the plant. The person asked to not be named because there was no authorization given to share that with the media.

Read more at the Detroit Free Press


Who to Blame if Your Company Gets Hacked?

Have a mirror ready.

IndustryWeek recently dipped into the cybersecurity well for some very good reasons related to current affairs. In nearly all the stories there is a common theme: If a company is not paying attention to cybersecurity and has the bandwidth and budget to establish proper cybersecurity, it’s kind of asking to get hacked.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Boeing’s New Air Force One Hit by Production Mishaps

Factory problems disrupted production of one of Boeing’s new Air Force One planes earlier this year, adding to the manufacturer’s stumbles developing the U.S. presidential jets, people familiar with the matter said. The production mishaps, which involved a pair of attempts to place one of the two jets under development onto jacks, risked damaging the aircraft whose development is already behind schedule, these people said.

The U.S. Air Force said the two jacking mishaps didn’t result in any damage to the jet involved. An examination of the mishaps later, however, found that a Boeing employee involved wasn’t properly credentialed for overseeing the work, crews didn’t follow established procedures and another employee involved in the operations failed a routine post-incident drug test, people familiar with the matter said

Read more at the WSJ


 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 487

Post: Apr. 5, 2022

Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff Will be Rapid, Brainard Says

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said she expects a combination of interest rate increases and a rapid balance sheet runoff to bring U.S. monetary policy to a “more neutral position” later this year, with further tightening to follow as needed. To do so, she said, the Fed will raise rates “methodically” and, as soon as next month, begin to reduce its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, quickly arriving at a “considerably” more rapid pace of runoff than the last time the Fed shrank its holdings.

The rapid portfolio reductions “will contribute to monetary policy tightening over and above the expected increases in the policy rate reflected in market pricing and the Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections,” she said.  The hawkish tone from one of the Fed’s usually more dovish policymakers sent stocks down and Treasury yields up to multi-year highs, as investors digested the implications of a more aggressive policy path.

Read more at Reuters


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


New York Set to Ban Natural Gas in New Buildings

ew York Governor Kathy Hochul will soon release a budget that likely will include a plan to make New York the first state to ban natural gas and other fossil fuels in new construction, according to Food & Water Watch and other environmental groups. 

In her State of the State address in January, Hochul committed to “zero on-site greenhouse gas emissions for new construction no later than 2027.” The gas industry has warned that giving up on gas would boost consumer costs because electric heat is much more expensive. With the economy recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, New York’s gas use rose to around 3.44 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021. That compares with a record high of 3.63 bcfd in 2018.

Read more at Reuters


Negotiations Continue on Already Late State Budget – What’s in or out so Far?

Lawmakers may have returned to Albany after leaders took the weekend to continue negotiating the budget, but the state Legislature is no closer to passing a spending plan than it was on Friday. Lawmakers approved a short term budget extender on Monday to keep the government running and state employees paid. With spring recess set to begin for lawmakers at the end of the week,  Albany leaders are rushing to finalize a deal on a range of issues affecting everyday New Yorkers. They hope to have bills passed by Wednesday or Thursday.

A number of big issues still separate negotiators – bail and discovery reform chief among them. Other proposals that hang in the balance include a big expansion of state support for child care, funding for a new stadium for the Buffalo Bills, and the legalization of to-go cocktails. 

Read more at City & State


US COVID – CDC Announces Sweeping Agency Review

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told employees that Jim Macrae, associate administrator for primary health care at the Health Resources and Services Administration, would be conducting a one-month review of the organization that has been in the public spotlight amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Walensky said that on Monday, Macrae will begin evaluating current COVID-19 efforts and “provide me with insight on how the delivery of our science and program can be further strengthened during this critical time of transition.” 

The review comes more than two years after the coronavirus pandemic began. The CDC has faced intense scrutiny during the global pandemic.

Read more at The Hill


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


COVID and Diabetes, Colliding in a Public Health Train Wreck

After older people and nursing home residents, perhaps no group has been harder hit by the pandemic than people with diabetes. Recent studies suggest that 30 to 40 percent of all coronavirus deaths in the United States have occurred among people with diabetes, a sobering figure that has been subsumed by other grim data from a public health disaster that is on track to claim a million American lives sometime this month. 

A study published earlier this month suggested that those with mild COVID infections had a 28% chance of developing diabetes compared to those who never got COVID-19. Another study published in the Lancet, also found that people who had low to no risk factors for diabetes had a 38% increased risk after a COVID-19 infection.

Read more at the NY Times


CDC: COVID Lockdowns Caused ‘Traumatic’ Stress In Teenagers

A new survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed an alarming rise in the number of teenagers who are struggling with their mental health. During the first six months of 2021, 44% of the teenagers surveyed reported they felt persistently sad or hopeless. The CDC said that coronavirus lockdowns were one of the reasons why the number was so high.

The agency said that nearly 20% of teens contemplated suicide. Females were more than twice as likely as males to seriously consider suicide. Female students also reported higher rates of drinking and smoking. In 2009, 26.1% of teenagers reported feeling sad and hopeless. That percentage rose to nearly 37% in 2019 before jumping another seven points amid the coronavirus pandemic as many teens found themselves isolated from their peers. Not only were they separated from their friends, but they also dealt with emotional abuse at home.

Read more at iHeart Media


New COVID-19 Variant XE Identified: What to Know and Why Experts Say Not to be Alarmed

A new COVID-19 variant has been identified in the United Kingdom, but experts say there is no cause for alarm yet. The variant, known as XE, is a combination of the original BA.1 omicron variant and its subvariant BA.2. This type of combination is known as a “recombinant” variant.

Public health experts say that recombinant variants are very common and often crop up and disappear on their own. “Right now, there’s really no public health concern,” said Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital and an ABC News contributor. “Recombinant variants happen over and over. In fact, the reason that this is the XE variant recombinant is that we’ve had XA, XB, XC, XD already, and none of those have turned out to be any real concern.”

Read more at ABC News


Senators Reach $10 Billion Deal on COVID Funds

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a $10 billion deal on another round of emergency pandemic funding requested by the Biden administration. The money will be directed to domestic needs for vaccines, tests and therapeutic drug treatment. About $5 billion in international aid to combat the pandemic abroad was dropped from the deal because senators could not come to terms on how to pay for it.

Schumer and Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, reinvigorated stalled talks over COVID aid that was originally included in a recent bipartisan $1.5 trillion government spending bill, but the money was scuttled at the last minute when a critical number of House Democrats objected. Some of that money would have been offset by cutting previously approved COVID funds to states, and rank-and-file lawmakers were given little notice of the change agreed to by party leaders.

Read more at NPR


U.S. Labor Market Is Tightest of Postwar Era, Goldman Gauge Shows

The U.S. jobs market has never been tighter than it is today, increasing the risks to the economy as Federal Reserve policy makers move to rein in inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The Wall Street bank’s economists have compiled a gauge of U.S. labor that they say better tracks wage gains — which are key to inflationary pressures — than other measures. They add the total number of employees and the number of job openings to estimate labor demand. For supply, they count the labor force, or people in work and those looking for positions.

The latest reading of the gap shows an excess of 5.3 million in labor demand versus supply of workers — “the most overheated level of the postwar period both in absolute terms and relative to the population,” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, wrote in a note Monday. 

Read more at Bloomberg Canada


ISM: Services Sector Growth Eases in March, Still Solid

Services economy activity continued to show solid momentum in March, according to the most recent edition of the Services ISM Report on Business, which was issued today by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The reading for the report’s key indicator—the Services PMI was 58.3. 

  • Business activity/production, at 55.5, increased 0.4%, growing, at a faster rate, for the 22nd consecutive month, with 13 services sectors reporting growth;
  • New orders, at 60.1, increased 4.0%, growing, at a faster rate, for the 22nd consecutive month, with 15 services sectors reporting growth;
  • Employment, at 54.0, increased 5.5%, growing after a month of contraction following seven straight months of growth, with 13 services sectors growing in March; and
  • Supplier deliveries—at 63.4 (a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries)—were down 0.5% compared to February, slowing, at a faster rate, for the 34th consecutive month

Read more at Modern Materials Handling


With Inflation Not Letting Up, Shoppers Cut Back on Staples

American consumers are starting to cut costs on mainstays from toothpaste to baby formula as inflation hits a swath of the economy that had thus far proven resistant to substantial price increases. Procter & Gamble Co., Clorox Co., Kraft Heinz Co. and other consumer-products giants have made a bet that consumers will pay up for household products even as inflation takes hold. Over the past year, the companies have seen profits and market share grow as they have raised prices on products from detergent and diapers to snacks and soda.

Now consumers, hit by soaring costs for everything from gasoline to child care, are drawing a line, analysts and retailers say. Shoppers are buying staples in smaller quantities, switching to cheaper, store-name brands and more rigorously hunting for deals. The shift is especially pronounced among lower-income consumers who splurged on household products amid the heights of the pandemic, they say.

Read more at the WSJ


Biden Plans to Extend Student Loan Payment Pause

The White House plans to once again extend the moratorium on federal student loan payments through the end of August, according to multiple people familiar with the matter, including an administration official.

The announcement, expected on Wednesday, comes as the current pause on payments was set to expire May 1, potentially impacting more than 40 million Americans. The new August 31 extension, however, is considerably shorter than what many Democrats have been requesting. It also tees up another fight over the relief just months before the midterm elections.

Read more at Politico


Colleges Are Trying to Re-Enroll Adult Learners Who Dropped Out. Here’s How It’s Going.

As colleges across the country try to turn around sagging enrollment rates, many are targeting one group in particular: the 36 million adults who left college without a degree. Undergraduate enrollment has decreased by about 8 percent during the pandemic, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. That has made it even more urgent to bring those students back. Higher-education leaders, politicians, and education nonprofits alike are trying to find the best ways to do so. But how can they make sure students are better prepared to face barriers this time around?

Finding adult learners, re-enrolling them, and retaining them takes time. Many institutions don’t have the bandwidth to do it on their own, which is one of the big gaps InsideTrack is hoping to help fill, said Angela Jaramillo, its strategic partnership director.

Read more at the Chronical of Higher Education (Tiered Subscription) 


 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 486

Post: Apr. 4, 2022

Stop Gap: Emergency Appropriation Bill Funds State While Budget Negotiations Continue

Late last night the legislature passed an emergency appropriation bill to temporarily allow the State to continue to fulfil its obligations while budget negotiations continue. The emergency appropriation is effective retroactively on April 1st, and will expire on Thursday, April 7th, 2022. Democratic lawmakers in the state Senate and Assembly have been told by legislative leaders to stay in Albany at least through mid-week, with some predicting they will be in town through Friday to iron out details on the more than $216 billion budget.

The state Legislature remains at odds with Gov. Kathy Hochul over her dual push for criminal justice reforms and $850 million in public funding for a new Buffalo Bills stadium, the top Democratic leader in the Assembly griped Monday morning, as lawmakers are set to miss another deadline to pass New York’s fiscal 2023 budget. 

Read more at the NY Post


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Supply Chain: Ford, GM Plants Idled

Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. have separately idled production at two Michigan assembly plants for the week of April 4. In each case the automakers have cited parts shortage. The Ford Flat Rock (Mich.) Assembly plant – where it builds the Ford Mustang – is being slowed by a shortage of semiconductor chips, the automaker announced. The issue has been an ongoing problem for automakers since the initial end of Covid lockdowns and the effort to resume regular production efforts. Most automakers operating in the U.S. have resorted to idling plants for various lengths of time over the past year.

GM’s Lansing (Mich.) Grand River Assembly plant has paused production of the Cadillac CT4 and CT5 and the Chevrolet Camaro, though company spokesperson emphasized that this idling is not due to a shortage of semiconductor chips. Even so, GM would not specify the particular part or parts that are unavailable, citing competitive issues.

Read more at American Machinist


Commerce: Factory Orders Decline in February

New orders for U.S.-made goods fell in February, likely because of persistent shortages of materials and a shift in spending back to services, but manufacturing remains supported by low inventories at businesses. The pullback in factory orders came as durable goods orders tumbled by 2.1 percent in February following a 1.5 percent spike in January. Orders for non-durable goods shot up by 1.2 percent in February after jumping by 1.5 percent in January.

The Commerce Department said on Monday that factory orders fell 0.5% in February. Data for January was revised slightly higher to show orders rising 1.5% instead of 1.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would decline 0.5%.

Read more at Reuters


US COVID – Masks Come Off, Mandates Loosen as Companies Relax Covid-19 Protocols

U.S. companies are relaxing many of the vaccine and other COVID-related requirements that had become a staple of corporate life in the pandemic. As office occupancy nears pandemic-era highs in many U.S. cities, a number of employers have communicated new, looser safety protocols to workers. Some companies made masks optional in the office for all workers, while others dropped testing requirements for the unvaccinated or simplified the daily return-to-office questionnaires.

Beginning this week, JPMorgan Chase will relax—for now, anyhow—a number of its COVID safety workplace measures, including rules on masks at the office and testing for the unvaccinated. It’s not alone. It joins Verizon, and others. Meanwhile, on the West Coast, social media giant Meta is reversing its employee booster policy.

Read more at the WSJ


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


NYS Makes Second COVID-19 Booster Shot Available to Eligible New Yorkers

Governor Kathy Hochul today announced eligibility for second COVID-19 vaccine booster doses. Booster doses are free and widely available statewide, including at all state-run mass vaccination sites. Eligible New Yorkers may receive an mRNA vaccine—either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine—for their second booster shot.

The State’s Department of Health released new clinical guidance on the administration of second booster doses for all providers enrolled in the New York State vaccination program. Adults 50 years and older can receive a second booster of an mRNA vaccine at least four months after their first booster. Additionally, adults ages 18 – 49 years who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine for their primary vaccine and initial booster dose now may receive a second booster four months after their first booster dose. Also eligible for the second booster are New Yorkers 12 years and older who are moderately to severely immunocompromised. 


COVID Antibody Drugs Work Best When Given as Early as Possible

A first-of-its-kind analysis has a clear message about when to give the COVID-19 therapies called monoclonal antibodies: the earlier people get this type of treatment, the better they fare1. The study, based on dozens of clinical trials, also suggests that many antibody therapies might work at doses much lower than those usually administered.

The authors estimated that early treatment could reduce the risk of hospitalization by around 70%. They also determined that doses of antibody drugs 7 to 1,000 times lower than typically administered could still achieve nearly the same efficacy. This finding could have far-reaching implications given monoclonal antibodies’ extraordinarily high cost and their ability to keep people with COVID-19 out of hospital. The study was posted on the medRxiv preprint server on 22 March and has not yet been peer reviewed. 

Read more at Nature


Mysterious Wave of COVID Toes Still has Scientists Stumped

Puffy, red-purple, and sometimes painful toes were one of the odder symptoms seen early in the pandemic. But experts are debating their cause—and whether COVID-19 is even to blame. A study published in October last year in the British Journal of Dermatology was among those suggesting an aggressive immune response to a SARS-CoV-2 exposure may be responsible for COVID toes. 

Some experts suggest that there may be COVID toe cases that have nothing to do with the virus but something to do with pandemic behavior. People weren’t wearing shoes and socks as much while staying at home, which could have induced pandemic chilblains in some people. Until experts are able to trace back a definitive SARS-CoV-2 footprint in COVID toes patients, that association will continue to be subject to speculation. “There’s lots of open questions,” Arkin says, “and may be more mysteries still than answers.”

Read more at NatGeo


Goldman Sachs:  Your Portfolio Will Flatline this Year—if You’re Lucky

Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs gave clients a best-case, worst-case scenario for stocks—and even the glass-half-full take looks pretty lousy. The Goldman team, led by chief US equity strategist David J. Kostin, reiterates it sees the benchmark S&P 500 closing at 4,700 at year-end. That would imply stocks are only set to rise a further 4% this year.

A 4,700 handle would be a bit of a jolt to investors, as the S&P closed out 2021 at 4,766.18. The investment bank reckons equities could tumble a further 21% to finish 2022 at 3,600. That would be Goldman’s “recession scenario.”

Read more at Fortune


Economists Seek Recession Clues in the Yield Curve

Much was made of the inversion last week of the yield curve between 2 and 10 year treasury bonds and how that might portend a recession.  Yield curves can be measured using interest rates across a wide spectrum of maturities, from overnight to 30 years, and some inversions matter more than others. Though investors often look at differences between yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, Fed researchers Eric Engstrom and Steven Sharpe concluded those weren’t the rates that actually mattered. “There is no need to fear the 2-10 spread,” Messrs. Engstrom and Sharpe argued in a recent paper.

They found the relationship of rates over shorter horizons of less than two years was a more accurate measure of the risk of recession. They compare current three-month Treasury-bill rates to market expectations for three-month rates 18 months in the future. Using that approach, recession alarms aren’t ringing. Short-term rates are much lower than expected rates 18 months from now.

Read more at the WSJ


JPMorgan CEO Dimon: Big Risks Loom for the U.S. Economy

The head of the nation’s biggest bank offered a largely upbeat view of the economy’s health in his annual letter to shareholders Monday. Consumers and businesses are flush with cash, wages are rising and the economy is growing rapidly after its pandemic slowdown. While consumer confidence has declined, Mr. Dimon says the more important gauge is booming spending. Yet Mr. Dimon warned that the war in Ukraine could collide with rising inflation to slow the pandemic recovery and alter global alliances for decades to come.

“They present completely different circumstances than what we’ve experienced in the past—and their confluence may dramatically increase the risks ahead,” Mr. Dimon wrote. “While it is possible, and hopeful, that all of these events will have peaceful resolutions, we should prepare for the potential negative outcomes.”

Read more at the WSJ


EEOC Gets Over 6,000 COVID Complaints

Employers should have paid attention when the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) issued its COVID-19 discrimination guidelines, covering responses to the disease itself as well as vaccination policies. It was recently revealed that between April 2020 and December 2021 more than 6,000 discrimination charges were filed. The EEOC also received more than 2,700 separate vaccine-related charges after the vaccine became widely available and vaccine mandates were introduced to workplaces across the county.

The majority of the EEOC charges claimed violations of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), while others cited racial, ethnic and gender discrimination under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act along with other anti-bias laws. Many of the EEOC charges related to vaccine mandates appear to cite violations of the ADA; however, the majority of vaccine-related charges raised other statutes.

Read more at EHS Today


Cutting Tool Demand Down, But Up Year/Year

Machine shops and other manufacturing operations consumed $159.9 million worth of cutting tools during January 2022, according to the most recent Cutting Tool Market Report. The new total falls -2.7% below the figure for December 2021, but still shows 10.5% rise over than the consumption value for January 2021.

Despite the month-to-month decline indicated by the latest CTMR total, Steve Stokey, executive vice president and owner of Allied Machine and Engineering, said the January CTMR shows that “cutting tool data indicates we are continuing to trend in a positive direction, although the overall growth appears to be flattening. “If manufacturing was not already dealing with enough challenges coming out of the pandemic, it will now see how the war in Ukraine and the energy policies of this administration impact the numbers moving forward.”

Read more at American Machinist


Frontier Modifies Flights in and out of Stewart

When Frontier Airlines began to operate from New York Stewart International Airport last November, they flew to Miami, Orlando and Tampa. One of those routes was switched, said the airline’s Will Evans, Jr. “We found that there was more demand from the Hudson Valley to the Fort Lauderdale versus Miami so it just made sense to move the operation,” he said. Effective in May, the airline will be adding flights to Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham as well.

Meanwhile new discount airline Play will begin its European service to New York via New York Stewart International Airport at Newburgh on June 9. Based in Iceland, the airline will fly to dozens of European cities connecting through its Icelandic facilities. Service to European cities will dependent on the day of the week and can be reviewed at www.flyplay.com.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News


How Does Amazon’s Union Vote Affect Manufacturers?

The votes are in, and 55% of the workers at Amazon’s warehouse located on Staten Island,  New York City, want to form a union.  While it’s a historic event in Amazon’s history, it also will have a far-reaching impact on manufacturers. At first, it might not seem obvious to draw the line from Amazon to manufacturing, but as any manufacturers will tell you, and many have told me, in the competition for talent, Amazon looms large. 

In an article on Bloomberg, in September of 2021, author Conor Sen said, “We’re used to America losing manufacturing jobs because companies can find cheaper workers abroad, but perversely, we might begin losing more of those jobs because factory owners can’t offer what service employers can.” He notes that while some manufacturing positions, like that of an autoworker,  pay $30 an hour, those in the food industry pay closer to $20 and that’s not the starting pay.  Sen said that manufacturing as a whole has lagged behind other industries over the past decade with leisure and hospitality wages increasing by 46% while factory wages rose 27% since 2011.

Read more at IndustryWeek


How High


 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 485

Post: Apr. 3, 2022

BLS Jobs Report – Manufacturing Employment is Now Just 1% Shy of its Pre-COVID Levels, Wage Growth Slows

The Department of Labor’s employment situation report showed gains in employment in the private economy, which added 431,000 jobs in March.  The average hourly wage was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, just 5.1 percent int he last 3 months. The monthly jobs report for March, released April 1 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that manufacturing hired approximately 38,000 new workers last month, including 11,000 in transportation equipment. Roughly 8% of new hires last month were in manufacturing, on par with how many jobs are manufacturing jobs.

Jobs for building planes, trains and automobiles grew by 10,800, of which 6,400 were in motor vehicles and parts production. Fabricated metal added 3,700 new employees. Those gains were offset by a loss in wood products production of 4,500 people and smaller losses in primary metals and electronics.  Nondurable goods added 16,000 new jobs last month. Chemicals grew by 7,200 employees, plastics and rubber companies hired 3,300, and the largest nondurable division, food manufacturing, hired 2,400.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


ISM Report Shows March Growth in Manufacturing

The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 57.1 points in March, 1.5 percentage points lower than the February reading of 58.6%. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 22nd month in a row. “In March, progress was made to solve the labor shortage problems at all tiers of the supply chain, which will result in improved factory throughput and supplier deliveries … Amid signs of staffing and supplier delivery improvements, production expanded at disappointing levels, likely due to timing issues,” said Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

  • The Employment Index registered 56.3% in March; 3.4 percentage points higher than the February reading of 52.9%.
  • The New Orders Index registered 53.8% in March, down 7.9 percentage points from the February reading of 61.7%.
  • The New Export Orders Index was 53.2%, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the February reading of 57.1%.
  • The Inventories Index registered 55.5% in March, 1.9 percentage points higher than the 53.6% reported for February.

Read more at MarketWatch


Euro Zone Inflation Hits Another Record High of 7.5%

Headline inflation came in at 7.5% for March on an annual basis, according to preliminary data from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat released on Friday. Headline inflation had reached 5.9% in February.  The numbers come at a time when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought renewed economic uncertainty, with some economists wondering whether the euro zone will enter a recession in 2022.

This economic backdrop is leading consumers to be more pessimistic about their prospects going forward, too. “Households are becoming more pessimistic and could cut back on spending,” ECb President Christine Lagarde said in a speech in Cyprus on Wednesday. Lower spending could bring even further economic headaches, as businesses would be selling less, have less room to pay employees and would be less likely to invest.

Read more at CNBC


US COVID – Experts are Split on Who Should Get a Second Covid-19 Booster Shot

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration this week authorized a second Covid-19 booster for anyone 50 years and older who had their first booster four or more months ago. The broad population cutoff age of 50 surprised some scientists. Most of the data on second boosters comes out of Israel and suggests that for people aged 60 and over, two boosters provide stronger protection against infection, deaths and hospitalizations than one does. But a New England Journal of Medicine study looking at healthcare workers who are not elderly found a second booster “may have only marginal benefits.” 

Experts are split on how important it is to get a second booster in light of the low Covid-19 rates in the U.S. and evidence of high protection against death and hospitalization following the first booster. But other countries are experiencing a surge in cases from the Omicron subvariant BA.2, and there are signs that rates are increasing in some parts of the Northeast.

Read more at the WSJ


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of April 2:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.6% of all New Yorkers – 16,481,404 (plus 2,939 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,714,562 (plus 343).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.2% of all New Yorkers – 14,765,091 (plus 3,889).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,505,325 (plus 408). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,355,830
  • In the Hudson Valley – 875,852

The Governor updated COVID data through April 2.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,251

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 833.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 127

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.65%    –   15.63 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.74%   –   14.35 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Late – State Lawmakers Sent Home Thursday Without a Budget Deal

New York’s fiscal year 2023 budget deadline passed Friday without an agreement.  In fact there is no sign that lawmakers are close to reaching a deal. Multiple issues are holding up the passage of budget bills, including a last-minute proposal by Gov. Kathy Hochul to give the Buffalo Bills the largest U.S. pro sports subsidy of all time for a new NFL stadium, and perhaps the most hot-button issue in New York politics right now: bail reform. 

Lawmakers were sent home on Thursday, with a vote possibly coming on Today. This means that Hochul could need to request that the state Legislature approve an extension to avoid a variety of fiscal consequences. She could also have to issue a “message of necessity” that allows bills to be passed before the three-day aging period required after introduction.  If the budget is not signed into law before 4 p.m. on Monday, April 4, the state comptroller’s office is prohibited from distributing paychecks to state workers, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s office warned in a memo sent to state agencies earlier this month.  There are some exceptions. The implications would not affect the State University of New York, the City University of New York or the State Insurance Fund, because their fiscal years begin at the end of June, the comptroller stated. 

Read more at City & State


Judge Rejects New York Legislative Maps, Orders New Districts Drawn, Dems Appeal

A state judge on Thursday rejected the maps drawn by the Democratic-led state Legislature in New York for the state’s U.S. House of Representatives districts as well as those in the state Senate and Assembly. The 18-page ruling ordered lawmakers to draw maps with “sufficient bipartisan support” by April 11 or have a neutral party draw the lines. The ruling is expected to be appealed.

New York Attorney General Letitia James and Gov. Kathy Hochul issued a one-sentence statement in response to the ruling, stating, “We intend to appeal this decision.”  The state’s top court, the Court of Appeals, has been appointed entirely by Democratic governors. Democrats have argued the districts are fairly drawn and reflect the Democratic domination of the state’s electorate. But critics of the Democratic-drawn districts have called the maps “a master class in gerrymandering” for New York.

Read more at Spectrum News


Survey: CFOs Less Optimistic About Economic Conditions

Deloitte’s latest quarterly survey of Fortune 500 chief financial officers found the executives have a gloomier outlook on the economy than last quarter, with respondents citing inflation, geopolitical risks and the regulatory environment as their top external concerns.

The biggest worry CFOs expressed to the consulting firm was rising inflation including material and wage costs. In the poll that concluded the day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the second most-mentioned fear was political unrest. Respondents not only cited the ongoing conflict in the region, but some pointed to the potential for escalating tensions with China. The third theme of external threats keeping CFOs up at night involves potential government actions, including fiscal policy, regulations and taxation. Additional external risks that emerged included supply chain woes, fears of a potential economic downturn and rising interest rates.

Read more at Fox Business


How the War in Ukraine Is Further Disrupting Global Supply Chains

Supply chain disruptions are prompting more manufacturers to shift or consider shifting to local supply chain strategies, Reducing reliance on foreign countries will take time and require infrastructure investments.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and sanctions imposed on it for doing so and new pandemic-related shutdowns in China are the latest events to rock global supply chains. Combined with the China-U.S. trade war and other pandemic- and climate-related disruptions, it is certain to accelerate the movement by Western companies to reduce their dependency on China for components and finished goods and on Russia for transportation and raw materials and to lead to more localized, or regional, sourcing strategies. If China decides to back Russia in the Ukraine conflict, it would only fuel that movement.

Read more at Harvard Business Review


Caixin PMI: China March Factory Activity Contracts at Sharpest Rate in 2 Years

China’s factory activity slumped at the fastest pace in two years in March due to a local COVID-19 resurgence and economic fallout from the Ukraine war, a survey showed on Friday, strengthening the case of more policy support for the economy.  The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.1 in March, indicating the steepest rate of contraction since February 2020, from 50.4 in the previous month.

“The average of the two (PMIs) is now under 50, and apart from the initial pandemic hit in 2020, is now at its lowest since February 2016,” said Sheana Yue, China economist at Capital Economics.

Read more at Reuters


Workforce Drug Test Positivity Climbs to Highest Level in Two Decades

The rate of positive drug test results among the U.S. workforce reached its highest rate last year since 2001. This number increased more than 30% in the combined U.S. workforce from an all-time low in 2010-2012, according to a new analysis released on March 30 by Quest Diagnostics. The study is based on more than 11 million deidentified urine, hair and oral fluid drug test results collected between January and December 2021. The overall positivity rate was up in 2021 to 4.6% compared to 4.4% in 2020 and up 31.4% from the all-time low of 3.5% just 10 years ago (2010-2012).

Overall positivity in the federally mandated, safety-sensitive workforce based on nearly 2.7 million urine drug tests stayed even year over year (2.2% in 2020 and 2021) and was 4.8% higher than 2017 (2.1% in 2017 versus 2.2% in 2021). In the general U.S. workforce, positivity increased 1.8% (5.5% in 2020 versus 5.6% in 2021) and was 12% higher than in 2017 (5.0% in 2017 versus 5.6% in 2021) and up each of the last five years.

Read more at EHS Today


Hochul Says Union Jobs Will Drive Climate Projects

The projects to strengthen New York’s infrastructure from the worst effects of climate change while also building out projects for renewable energies like wind will be done with labor union jobs, Gov. Kathy Hochul last week said. Hochul was in Florida for the New York Building Trades annual winter conference, pledging to prioritize jobs for labor in projects like the construction of wind turbines in the Albany area for construction off the shore of Long Island.  

New York state is set to spend billions of dollars in the coming years as part of a transition to renewable and cleaner forms of fuel, while at the same time protecting against extreme weather events like major floods. New York voters are also expected to consider a $3 billion bond act meant to shore up and improve environmental infrastructure in the state.  If past is prologue, union jobs will do nothing to lower these costs.

Read more at State of Politics


Senate Passes Ocean Shipping Bill

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (S. 3580)—a bill designed to improve the supply chain by granting regulators more oversight. The bill will increase regulators’ ability to oversee ocean shipping practices, prevent carriers from refusing U.S. exports and prohibit the unreasonable assessment of excess shipping fees. Senators hope the bill will improve the supply chain by diminishing backlogs at U.S. ports, streamline overall container exchange and movement and help U.S. exporters more easily and affordably ship their goods to international buyers.

“Manufacturers have been working with Congress for months to advance policy that will decrease shipping costs and clear port backlogs,” said NAM Director of Infrastructure, Innovation and Human Resources Policy Ben Siegrist. “Today’s Senate vote is a great step forward in addressing the problems ailing the shipping supply chain, and we’re grateful for the bipartisan leadership in the House and Senate on this bill.

Read more at Bloomberg Law


Amazon Workers Reject union in Alabama, Approve One in Staten Island

Amazon workers in Alabama appear to have rejected a union bid in a tight race, according to early results on Thursday. But outstanding challenged votes could change the outcome. Warehouse workers in Bessemer, Alabama, voted 993 to 875 against forming a union. The National Labor Relations Board, which oversees the election, said that 416 challenged votes could potentially overturn that result. A hearing to go through the challenged ballots will occur in the next few days.

In New York, union supporters have the edge in a count that will continue Friday morning. Meanwhile, in a separate union election in Staten Island, New York, the nascent Amazon Labor Union is leading by more than 350 votes out of about 2,670 tallied.

Read more at the AP


How High Energy Prices Could Help Both the Climate and the U.S.

Higher prices, if sustained, could reduce global fossil-fuel consumption and encourage the shift to zero-emission energy. At the same time, sanctions and boycotts on Russia pave the way for U.S. oil-and-gas producers to expand market share. The US has committed to slash emissions of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming greenhouse gases by 2050. To achieve this the Biden administration has relied on regulatory and executive actions, such as cracking down on methane leaks from wells and pipelines and restricting leasing and drilling on federal land. Climate activists, meanwhile, have sought to pressure investors, banks and major oil companies to divest from fossil fuels.

The problem with such efforts is that they do little to alter global demand for fossil fuels, the ultimate driver of climate warming, but will reduce how much of that demand is met by U.S. suppliers, as opposed to Russia and OPEC. That’s one of the reasons Mr. Biden’s agenda has encountered stiff opposition from the domestic industry, Republicans, courts and Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), who holds a de facto veto over Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda in the evenly split Senate.

Read more at the WSJ


Perceptions

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 484

Post: Mar. 30, 2022

In Manufacturing, “Great Resignation” Really a “Great Retirement”

In keeping with the latest jobs numbers, a recent Manufacturing Institute survey has found that for the industry, “The Great Resignation” is really more of a “Great Retirement.” There were 808,000 manufacturing job openings in February, down from January’s 859,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. February’s number is also down from the manufacturing sector’s 11-month average of 867,000. However, the number of manufacturing quits rose from 315,000 in January to 337,000 in February, which is a new record.

According to Survey data from the Manufacturing Institute: 

  • Eighty-two percent of survey respondents who left a manufacturing job in the past six months retired due to age or for health-related reasons.
  • The remaining 18% resigned or were laid off.
  • Of the 18% who resigned or were laid off, 73% are back to work in a different manufacturing job, 7% are working in a different industry and 20% are still looking for work.

The survey suggests that retirements are a bigger issue than quits, at least among respondents. The majority of those who are quitting are remaining in manufacturing.

See the data at the US Census Bureau


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


U.S. 2 Year/10 Year Treasury Yield Curve Inverts

A key part of the yield curve inverted on Tuesday, as the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield briefly rose above the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield for the first time since September 2019. An inversion of the two-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession is likely to follow in one to two years. The 2s/10s curve briefly showed minus 0.03 basis point.

“The movements in the twos and the tens are a reflection that the market is growing nervous that the Fed may not be successful in fostering a soft landing,” said Joe Manimbo, Senior Market Analyst  at Western Union Business Solutions noted. “For one, the Fed has signaled that they could raise rates aggressively and that’s coming against a backdrop of expectations for growth to moderate this year already.” 

Read more at YahooFinance


New York’s Budget Talks Remain in Neutral Amid Disagreement

The April 1 deadline is essentially a meaningless one for nearly all 20 million New Yorkers, even as lawmakers and Gov. Kathy Hochul wrestle with consequential proposals over how to fund child care, whether New York’s criminal justice system needs to undergo further changes and how at minimum $216 billion in taxpayer money should be spent. 

Advocates and lawmakers were pushing on Tuesday to include child care funding for undocumented immigrants as officials circle around boosting spending by $3 billion. Lawmakers also remain at odds over how to change New York’s cash bail law. Hochul wants more circumstances for when bail is considered.  An expansion of Kendra’s Law, a measure that requires people in a mental health crisis to receive treatment, also remains controversial. But Democrats expect the measure will at least be extended, potentially in the budget.

Read more at Spectrum News


US COVID – ‘One-Stop’ Site Will Help Americans Find Info on COVID Testing, Treatments

More than two years into the pandemic the Biden administration is launching an online one-stop center that will enable Americans to quickly find information about COVID vaccines, tests treatments and masks and get up-to-date information on the disease in their area. COVID.gov, also will include a “test-to-treat” locator that will help people access pharmacies and community health centers where they can get tested for COVID and receive treatments.

The site comes as the U.S. is entering a new phase of the pandemic, with a steep decline in the number of hospitalizations and new COVID cases. Most states and local governments have dropped their mask mandates.


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 20:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,448,924 (plus 1,889 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,710,557 (plus 297).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.9% of all New Yorkers – 14,737,334 (plus 1,805).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,501,374 (plus 276). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,265,004
  • In the Hudson Valley – 864,009

The Governor updated COVID data through March 20.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,958 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 900.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 159

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.87%    –   10.30 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.36%   –   16.32 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


NIH’s Sluggish and Often Opaque Efforts to Study Long COVID Draw Patient, Expert Ire

Fifteen months ago, Congress showered the NIH with a massive $1.2 billion to research the mysterious cases of patients who never fully recover from Covid-19 infections. But so far the NIH has brought in just 3% of the patients it plans to recruit. Critics charge that the NIH’s missteps are even bigger: that it is acting without urgency, that it is taking on vague, open-ended research questions rather than testing out therapies or treatments, and that it is not being fully transparent with patient advocates and researchers.

The success of the NIH’s research into long COVID will shape the trajectory of the long-term burden of the pandemic on health care systems around the world for years to come. But the NIH will have to walk the fine line between responsibly designing large-scale research to provide the clearest answers, and making sure the effort doesn’t buckle under the weight of bureaucracy.

Read more at STAT news


Regulatory Update: Justice Department Aids OSHA Enforcement

The Department of Justice (DOJ) said it will be increasingly pursuing cases in regard to worker safety and safe working conditions through formal collaboration with the Department of Labor (DOL), which includes the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA).

DOJ is “deepening our partnership with DOL to sharpen the tools at our disposal to protect American workers,” declared Attorney General Merrick Garland on March 7 at the White House Roundtable on the State of Labor Market Competition in the U.S. Economy. This was where Biden administration officials detailed ambitious plans to promote unionization developed by an interagency task force.

Read more at EHS Today


NY Businesses Want State to Cover Rising Costs of Unemployment 

New York business owners want the state to use some of the billions of dollars it received in federal relief aid to cover rising unemployment costs that threaten to swamp struggling businesses. They’re asking the state to shift at least $2 billion in federal relief aid toward the $9 billion debt the state incurred borrowing from the federal government when the state’s unemployment fund ran out during the pandemic.  Businesses have been tagged with increased employer payroll taxes to cover the debt, on top of what they pay in federal taxes.

“We don’t expect the state legislature to cover the full $9 billion burden,” said Ken Pokalsky, Vice President of The Business Council of New York State. “However, we believe lawmakers need to make a significant down payment and provide immediate UI tax relief. The shutdowns were state-mandated measures to address a growing public health crisis, not the fault of private-sector employers, so it makes sense to have a public-private sharing of this repayment. State relief will help businesses who continue to face challenges due to the pandemic.”

Read more at the Democrat & Chronical


ECB’s Lagarde: ‘Significant’ Economic Risks Rising Due to War

Russian aggression against Ukraine is set to drive inflation higher in the near-term and poses significant risks to the eurozone’s growth prospects, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde cautioned Wednesday. Three main factors that are likely to push inflation up: Higher energy prices; higher food prices due to Ukraine’s key role as a wheat exporter; and renewed bottlenecks in global supply chains.

“At the same time, the war poses significant risks to growth,” Lagarde added. She pointed to souring sentiment, which suggests that consumers may dial back purchases while companies put investment on hold. “Europe is entering a difficult phase,” Lagarde said. ”There is considerable uncertainty about how large these effects will be and how long they will last for.” Amid the uncertainty, the ECB stands ready to revise both the size and the duration of its bond-buying program, which is currently scheduled to run out after the third quarter.

In any case, the ECB will move only gradually in its efforts to normalize policy in the face of raging inflation, she said.

Read more at Fortune


German Inflation Surges Above Expectations to 7.6 Percent in March

German annual inflation surged to 7.6 percent in March, racing well ahead of expectations, preliminary data from the national statistics office showed Wednesday. Earlier Wednesday, the German government’s council of economic advisers projected inflation to average 6.1 percent this year, more than three times the European Central Bank’s price stability target, before declining to 3.4 percent in 2023.

The European Commission Economic Sentiment indicator, released earlier Wednesday, also sent a warning signal about further inflation ahead. The survey showed that selling-price expectations for the next three months rose to unprecedented levels in all surveyed business sectors.  ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the Ukraine war is set to push inflation higher in the near term. At the same time, however, she cautioned that the region is facing significant risks to growth, which will require policymakers to move only gradually in their fight against surging prices.

Read more at Politico


Senate Advances China Competition Legislation

The U.S. Senate voted Monday to greenlight a multibillion-dollar bill aimed at jumpstarting high-tech research and manufacturing, countering China’s growing influence and easing a global shortage of computer chips. The legislation is the upper chamber’s version of the House’s America Competes bill that passed in February. Lawmakers are expected to start negotiations between both parties in the House and Senate to marry the different texts. 

The 2,900-page House version passed mostly along party lines with Republicans arguing it wasn’t tough enough on China and that it was overly focused on unrelated issues like climate change and social inequality.  That means it is destined for a conference committee, where Senate Republicans will have all the leverage since 10 of them will be needed to get the final text back through the upper chamber.

Read more at IndustryWeek


House Sends Bipartisan Cyber Crime Bill to Biden for Signature

The House passed bipartisan cybersecurity legislation on Tuesday that would improve the way the federal government tracks, measures and analyzes cyber crime. The Better Cybercrime Metrics Act, which the House approved in a bipartisan 377-48 vote, will help U.S. law enforcement agencies better identify cyber threats, prevent attacks and prosecute cyber crime. 

The bill follows the passage of a new cyber law that requires companies in critical infrastructure to report substantial cyberattacks and ransomware payments within 24 to 72 hours to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), a federal agency that oversees cybersecurity infrastructure and enforcement. 

Read more at The Hill


The LNG Export Boom Is Draining U.S. Natural-Gas Supplies and Lifting Prices

The U.S. is shipping more natural gas than ever overseas, which is keeping domestic inventories lean and power prices high  Natural-gas prices usually decline into spring, when heating demand drops but before air-conditioning season begins. This year prices climbed into spring, thanks to record export volumes and promises from the White House to support the shipment of even more liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to allies across the Atlantic to supplant Russian supply. 

U.S. natural gas futures for April delivery ended Tuesday at $5.336 per million British thermal units, more than double the price a year ago. So far in 2022, natural-gas prices have risen 43%. The last time there was such a sharp run-up to start a year was in 2008, when energy prices surged ahead of the financial crisis. A deep recession and the shale-drilling boom’s bounty of fuel kept prices depressed for more than a decade after.

Read more at the WSJ


Biden’s Global Quest for Oil Triggers Political Pushback

President Biden’s global quest for more oil is meeting resistance from across the political spectrum. Republicans have criticized him for scolding the U.S. oil industry and pushing for alternative-energy sources even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has underscored the world’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Mr. Biden has shifted course recently, including announcing that the U.S. would ship more liquefied natural gas to Europe to help countries there reduce their dependence on Russian gas. That shift, however, drove concerns among progressives who think the Democratic president is stepping back from his campaign promise to transition the U.S. away from fossil fuels. Democrats and Republicans alike also have chafed at White House attempts to get authoritarian regimes such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to produce more oil.

Read more at the WSJ


Germany Girds for Natural Gas Rationing, Europe on Edge in Russian Standoff

Germany triggered an emergency plan to manage gas supplies on Wednesday that could see Europe’s largest economy ration power if a standoff over a Russian demand to pay for fuel with roubles disrupts or halts supplies. President Vladimir Putin has said Russia, the world’s top natural gas producer, will soon require “unfriendly” countries to pay for fuel in roubles, raising alarm about a possible gas crunch in Europe.

However, the Russian president told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by phone on Wednesday that nothing would change for European partners and payments would still be made in euros and transferred to Gazprom bank, a German spokesperson said. The payment should be done in the rouble equivalent on a pre-agreed settlement day, the sources said.

Read more at Reuters


Perceptions of Manufacturing Are Changing, But More Work is Needed

The study, 2022 Manufacturing Perception Study, from Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, found that 64% of those surveyed viewed manufacturing jobs as innovative. And that compares to 39% in 2017, the last time the study was conducted.  73% of those surveyed said that manufacturing was critical to the pandemic response by producing PPE, ventilators and other essential goods and equipment. And that view led 61% to say that their perception of the sector improved.

While this is welcome news, it must be viewed in terms of how many manufacturing jobs need to be filled. “In the past 11 months there have been 808,000 openings in manufacturing,” says Carolyn Lee, president, of The Manufacturing Institute. “There are so many jobs open that manufacturers, 45% in this survey, said they are turning down orders as they don’t have the workforce to produce the products.”

Read more at IndustryWeek

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 483

Post: Mar. 29, 2022

JOLT Report: Manufacturing Quits Up 7% in February As Hiring Growth Lags

The latest JOLT report, released March 29, shows the hire rate for the overall economy mostly unchanged, with manufacturing lagging slightly behind. Total hires in the overall economy rose 4.1% to 6,689,000 people while manufacturing hires rose 3.8% to 482,000. Potentially more concerning for manufacturers, though, are the relative rates of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs: in the overall economy, quits rose by 2.2%, but in manufacturing they increased by 7%.

Durable goods manufacturing, in particular, stood out: Quits in that sector rose 13.3% as 22,000 people willingly left their jobs. Durable-goods employment is the largest division of manufacturing by workers, employing about 7.8 million workers to nondurable’s 4.7 million, according to the Bureau’s latest data. It’s also the better-paying sector, as the average durable goods manufacturing employee makes about $31.94 an hour, compared to $27.84 an hour in nondurable goods manufacturing. The average private employee, according to the BLS, makes about $31.58 an hour.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds Slightly on Firm Job Market

The Conference Board’s index increased to 107.2 from a downwardly revised 105.7 reading in February, which was the lowest in a year, according to the group’s report Tuesday.  Even though confidence edged up, Americans are facing the highest inflation since 1982, which is outpacing wage gains and being fanned further by the war in Ukraine. That’s already causing some to limit their purchases of certain goods or services, and a slowdown in consumption would pose a risk to economic growth.

Steady labor market gains have pushed employment back to pre-pandemic levels in some sectors, buoying U.S. households. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” increased to a record high 57.2%. A separate report Tuesday showed U.S. job openings remained near a record in February. Consumers were also mixed about their short-term financial prospects. The share who expect their incomes to rise in the next six months increased, but those who see their pay dropping also rose.

Read more at YahooFinance


Administration Budget Proposal Includes Manufacturing Spending

President Joe Biden’s 2023 budget priorities call for big increases in military spending, and a proposed tax on the wealthiest in the country could reduce deficits. Congress must create and pass federal budgets, so Biden’s plan is more of a wish list than anything else, but presidential priorities often influence how the country spends its money.

Much of the budget focuses on social and domestic policies such as poverty fighting programs and farm policies. However, a handful of proposals could impact manufacturing and industrial production. The Commerce Department would get funding to advance reshoring of manufacturing, marketing of US goods abroad, and expansion of NIST.  Defense spending would include shipbuilding and air force modernization, The Energy Department would get funds to advance domestic production of clean energy products. Homeland Security would support industrial cybersecurity efforts. The Labor Department would get additional funds to expand apprentice programs and build pathways for youth to skilled trades. 

Scroll through the IndustryWeek slideshow to see highlights 


US COVID – Johns Hopkins Data in Motion Video for March 29th 

JHU’s Daily COVID-19 Data in Motion report shares critical data on COVID-19 from the last 24 hours. Explore COVID-19 trends around the world with our in-depth data tracking:

  • New cases and cumulative cases.
  • US New deaths and cumulative deaths.
  • US Daily new cases, testing, and positivity ratio by US state.
  • New cases by country.

Watch at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 20:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,448,924 (plus 1,889 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,710,557 (plus 297).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.9% of all New Yorkers – 14,737,334 (plus 1,805).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,501,374 (plus 276). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,265,004
  • In the Hudson Valley – 864,009

The Governor updated COVID data through March 20.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,958 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 900.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 159

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.87%    –   10.30 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.36%   –   16.32 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Omicron ‘Stealth’ COVID Variant BA.2 Now Dominant Globally

BA.2 is now dominant worldwide, prompting surges in many countries in Europe and Asia and raising concern over the potential for a new wave in the United States.  BA.2 now represents nearly 86% of all sequenced cases, according to the World Health Organization. It is even more transmissible than its highly contagious Omicron siblings, BA.1 and BA.1.1, however the evidence so far suggests that it is no more likely to cause severe disease.

As with the other variants in the Omicron family, vaccines are less effective against BA.2 than against previous variants like Alpha or the original strain of coronavirus, and protection declines over time. However, according to UK Health Security Agency data, protection is restored by a booster jab, particularly for preventing hospitalization and death. A key concern about BA.2 was whether it could re-infect people who had already had BA.1. But data from both the UK and Denmark have shown that while Omicron can reinfect people who had other variants, such as Delta, only a handful of BA.2 reinfections in people who had BA.1 have been found so far among tens of thousands of cases.

Read more at Reuters


EPA Publishes Best Practices for Indoor Air Quality in Combating COVID-19

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has released new guidance on best practices to improve indoor air quality (IAQ) as part of the administration’s overall pandemic response plan for combating COVID-19.

Called the “Clean Air in Buildings Challenge,” the guidance advises, “[b]uilding owners and operators should engage experts, facilities managers, and others who are skilled, trained, and/or certified in HVAC work to develop and implement plans to improve IAQ and manage air flows.”

Read more at JDSupra/Jackson Lewis


McMahon: Two Years in NY Still Posted Nation’s Largest Job Loss (By Far)

Two full years after the last monthly employment count of the pre-pandemic era, seasonally adjusted private-sector payrolls in New York State remained 454,000 jobs below the February 2020 level — by far the largest remaining employment deficit in any state.

As of February, job counts in 21 states had surpassed their pre-pandemic employment levels, according to federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data released today. The nation as a whole had recovered 19.6 million of the 21 million jobs lost in the spring of 2020, placing it within 1.1 percent of fully recovering from the pandemic based on seasonally adjusted estimates. New York, however, was still 4.1 percent below its pre-pandemic employment level. On a percentage basis, only Hawaii and Alaska were worse off.

Read more at the Empire Center


BofA, Citi Expect Multiple 50-bps Fed Hikes This Year Due to Inflation 

Bank of America (BofA) and Citi have joined a small but growing number of top investment banks calling for more aggressive interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve against a backdrop of soaring inflation data and hawkish comments from policymakers.

BoFA now expects two hikes of 50 basis points each at the Fed’s June and July meetings with “risks” of those expectations being pulled forward into May and June respectively. Citi, on the other hand, sees 50 basis-point increases in May, June, July, and September. The bank also expects 25 basis-point tightening in October and December.

Read more at Reuters


Fed Study Points Finger at Fiscal Boost for High U.S. Inflation

Who’s to blame for high U.S. inflation? The folks who create fiscal policy — at least says those behind monetary policy. U.S. consumer prices have surged more than in other developed economies and one reason may be the massive government support provided to Americans during the pandemic, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The researchers used an index of real disposable income to untangle how much support was received by U.S. households versus other OECD countries. They found two distinct peaks in the U.S. corresponding to the CARES Act, signed into law in March 2020 at the onset of Covid-19, and the American Rescue Plan Act a year later.

“Fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021,” wrote Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio and Fabián Rivera-Reyes in the regional Fed’s weekly Economic Letter.

Read more at Bloomberg


Scholz: Russian Energy Ban Would Mean European Recession

An immediate ban on Russian energy imports would trigger an economic recession in Germany and across Europe, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned Wednesday. Speaking to the Bundestag, Scholz said Germany would end its energy dependence on Russia in due course but cutting all ties now would hit the German economy when it was unprepared.

“We will end this dependence [on Russian oil, coal and gas] as quickly as we can, but to do that from one day to the next would mean plunging our country and all of Europe into a recession,” the chancellor said, warning that “hundreds of thousands of jobs would be at risk, entire industries would be on the brink.”

Read more at Politico


Germany’s Imported Energy Prices More than Doubled in February

Germany’s imported energy costs jumped by 129.5 percent in February amid energy-market turmoil and tightening natural gas supply ahead of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Germany’s statistics office said Tuesday. Surging energy prices are set to push up inflation further in the coming month. Inflation in Germany hit 5.1 percent in February. Preliminary data for March will be released Wednesday.

Prices of domestically produced energy surged by 68 percent compared with the same month last year, while consumers had to pay 22.5 percent more for household energy and motor fuels than in February 2021, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

Read more at Politico


OSHA to Amend Occupational Injury, Illness Recordkeeping Regulation

On March 28  OSHA announced that it is proposing amendments to its occupational injury and illness recordkeeping regulation, 29 CFR 1904.41. The current regulation requires certain employers to electronically submit injury and illness information – that they are required to keep – to OSHA. The agency uses these reports to identify and respond to emerging hazards and makes aspects of the information publicly available.

In addition to reporting their Annual Summary of Work-Related Injuries and Illnesses, the proposed rule would require certain establishments in certain high-hazards industries to electronically submit additional information from their Log of Work-Related Injuries and Illnesses, as well as their Injury and Illness Incident Report.

Read more at EHS Today


New Report Finds Improving Credit Reports for Most Americans

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York earlier this month released the second installment of The State of Low-Income America: Credit Access and Debt Payment. The report finds that payment rates and median credit scores rose for all income groups through September 30, 2021. While overall bankruptcies declined substantially during the pandemic and new foreclosures were effectively halted, the report also finds that student loan default rates remain more than three times higher among borrowers in low- and moderate-income areas than in high-income areas.

“Although the COVID pandemic has taken a heavier toll on lower-income Americans, our data suggest that most borrowers—including those in lower-income areas—have been managing their financial responsibilities and debt repayments,” the authors stated. With a special focus on student loans, the report describes how most student loans were eligible for CARES Act emergency relief, pausing loan repayment through May 1, 2022. As a result, borrowers with student loans saw a sharper increase in their credit score compared to borrowers without student loans.

Read more at the NY Fed


Three Reasons Why China Faces a Difficult Year

No date has been set for it yet, not even a month. But for every official, the orders are clear. Their work must focus on making sure that a crucial Communist Party congress, to be held in the second half of the year, goes smoothly. The conclave is widely expected to herald the start of at least another five years of rule for Xi Jinping. From the police to economic policymakers, all are trying to minimize untoward events that might overshadow his moment of political glory. “The word ‘stability’ is the key,” leaders intone about the coming year at official gatherings.

Among China-watchers, there is much speculation about the extent of opposition to Mr Xi within the elite, and the impact it might have on his political grip. But there is no convincing evidence that his plans could be derailed for the party congress and a meeting immediately afterwards of the Central Committee. Indeed, history suggests that for all the party’s preoccupation with stability in the build-up to party congresses, which normally are held every five years, the power of paramount leaders can survive enormous buffeting.

Read more at The Economist


 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 482

Post: Mar. 28, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows; Retail Inventory Accumulation Slows

The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in February after setting a record high in the prior month as exports rebounded, but any lift to economic growth this quarter could be offset by businesses slowing their pace of inventory accumulation. The deficit fell 0.9% to $106.6 billion. Exports increased 1.2% to $157.2 billion. The rebound in exports was led by a 6.3% surge in shipments of consumer goods. Food exports accelerated 3.6%, while industrial supplies increased 2.6%. But motor vehicle exports dropped 3.4% as production continued to be hampered by a global semiconductor shortage. There were also substantial declines in exports of capital goods and other goods.

Imports of goods gained 0.3% to $263.7 billion. They were curbed by a 9.9% decline in imports of motor vehicles as well as a 3.0% drop in food imports. But there were strong increases in imports of industrial supplies and other goods.

Read more at US News


Negotiations Continue,  But Here is What’s in or Out of the 2022 State Budget as of Today?

Albany Democrats are running out of time to negotiate a state budget before an April 1 deadline, especially considering the litany of controversial proposals before them. A lot comes down to how the three most powerful people in state politics – Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and state Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins – will compromise on key issues with the June primaries looming.

Significant differences remain between the governor and the Democratic supermajorities in the state Senate and Assembly, but chances are they will approve a spending plan that meets their deadline, or at least come within a few days like past years. The seemingly impossible has become true in previous budget cycles once the governor, speaker and Senate majority leader really talked fiscal turkey. The coming days will show what’s on the menu this time around.

Here’s where City & State says things stand today


Administration Budget Proposal Calls for Increase in Defense Spending

President Biden on Monday released a $5.8 trillion budget that envisions $813 billion for defense spending in fiscal year 2023,  a roughly 4% increase from the $782 billion enacted for this fiscal year and a sign of the administration’s willingness to devote additional resources to military programs, including aiding Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

Mr. Biden’s budget also emphasizes efforts to reduce the deficit and fund law-enforcement efforts at the Justice Department. That is a departure from last year’s request outlining a massive boost in spending on domestic programs and detailed financial blueprint for Mr. Biden’s sweeping education, social and climate-change agenda. In Monday’s proposal, the White House largely glosses over that agenda, which has stalled in Congress.

Read more at the WSJ


US COVID – Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

Reports of new coronavirus cases in the United States are still declining, though the pace of improvement has slowed in recent days. Most states continue to see sustained declines, and cases remain at their lowest levels nationally since last July.
Coronavirus hospitalizations also continue to fall. In the past two weeks, hospitalizations have decreased by 39 percent to around 20,000 per day.

Several states in the Northeast and the South have seen cases increase over the past two weeks as the BA.2 subvariant has emerged. In New York, Connecticut and Arkansas, cases are up by more than 20 percent. Fewer than 1,000 deaths are currently being reported each day, the lowest daily average since before Omicron took hold. More than 970,000 deaths have been attributed to Covid-19 in the United States.

Read more at the New York Times


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 20:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,448,924 (plus 1,889 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,710,557 (plus 297).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.9% of all New Yorkers – 14,737,334 (plus 1,805).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,501,374 (plus 276). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,265,004
  • In the Hudson Valley – 864,009

The Governor updated COVID data through March 20.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,958 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 900.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 159

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.87%    –   10.30 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.36%   –   16.32 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


The FDA is Expected to Authorize 2nd Boosters for People 50 and Up

Anyone 50 years and older could soon be eligible for a second booster dose of the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to authorize the additional booster shots without holding a meeting of its independent vaccine advisors. The plan comes as evidence increases that protection from three shots is fading and a fourth shot would help boost immunity back up. 

“We have a large number of people who are at least four to six months past their third shot,” says Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, who supports the move. But others question the plan. The vaccines are still doing a good job of protecting people from getting seriously ill. Critics say there just isn’t enough evidence yet that another shot is needed and that it would provide stronger protection that would last.

Read more at NPR


Costs of Going Unvaccinated in America are Mounting for Workers and Companies

Vaccine hesitancy likely already accounts for tens of billions of dollars in preventable U.S. hospitalization costs and up to hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths, say public health experts.  For taxpayers, it could mean a financial drain on programs such as Medicare, which provides healthcare for seniors.

For individuals forgoing vaccination, the risks can include layoffs and ineligibility to collect unemployment, higher insurance premiums, growing out-of-pocket medical costs or loss of academic scholarships. For employers, vaccine hesitancy can contribute to short-staffed workplaces. Some employers are looking to pass along a risk premium to unvaccinated workers, not unlike how smokers can be required to pay higher health premiums. One airline said it will charge unvaccinated workers $200 extra a month in insurance.

Read more at Reuters


5 Things to Know About Coronavirus Vaccines for Young Children

Parents of children under five have faced months of waiting for a coronavirus vaccine, with the occasional moments of hope getting snatched away. But there are some signs of progress on a COVID-19 vaccine for the youngest children, the only age group where the vaccine is not currently available.  

Vaccination rates have been lagging among the group of children where the vaccine is already available, though, with only about a quarter of children 5-11 fully vaccinated.  So while some parents are anxiously awaiting the vaccine for young kids, others will be in no hurry. Here are five things to know.

Read more at The Hill


NYS Website Launched with Resources for Ukrainians and How New Yorkers Can Help

Governor Hochul last week announced the launch of a new website containing resources offered by New York State and its partners to help Ukrainian people and their friends and allies here in New York. This directive comes amid Governor Hochul’s ongoing efforts to support Ukraine.

Last week, the Governor announced an Executive Order to prohibit state agencies and authorities from contracting with entities that continue to do business in Russia. In early March, Governor Hochul announced actions to strengthen the Department of Financial Services’ (DFS) enforcement of sanctions against Russia, including the expedited procurement of additional blockchain analytics technology. In February, Governor Hochul ordered all state agencies and authorities to divest public funds from Russia and stop doing business with Russian companies.


China is Shutting Down Shanghai in Two Phases to Control COVID

Shanghai, a city of 26 million people on the southeastern coast of China, began a two-stage lockdown Monday as authorities attempt different strategies to maintain growth, while trying to control the country’s worst Covid-19 outbreak since the pandemic began.  The city is a hub for finance and international business in the country. The city is also home to the world’s largest container-shipping port.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange remains in operation. The exchange announced Sunday night that stock issuance applications and other paperwork can be done online, with deadline relaxations as needed. Tesla, whose Shanghai factory is located in the area covered by the first stage of the lockdown, reportedly halted production for at least a day on Monday.

Read more at CNBC


Daimler Truck Sees ’22 Growth Around 15% in North America

Daimler Truck’s North American business in 2021 posted sales of about $17.5 billion versus $15.4 billion the year before. Adjusted EBITDA was about $1.6 billion, up about 40% from the year before thanks both to rising sales – a little more than 162,000 units versus nearly 140,000 in 2020 – and higher prices. Globally, Daimler Truck earned adjusted EBITDA of about $2.8 billion on revenues of more than $44 billion.

For 2022, the Daimler team is forecasting North American unit sales of 175,000 to 195,000 and an adjusted return on equity of 10% to 12%. The company – which spun out of Daimler AG late last year – is pushing through a large price increase and may need to return to customers this year with another one if input costs continue to climb. CFO Jochen Goetz said that only a minimal number of customers have adjusted their orders in response to price hikes, which he said is a sign of the very strong underlying demand for trucks.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Apple is Reportedly Already Cutting iPhone SE Production Plans by 20 Percen

According to a report from Nikkei Asia, Apple will be making 20 percent fewer iPhone SEs in the next quarter than it originally planned and 10 million fewer AirPods for all of 2022. Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo provided specific numbers in his note about the demand for the SE, saying that he expects Apple to ship 15 to 20 million SEs in 2022, as opposed to his previous estimate of 25-30 million (that’s somewhere between a 22 and 66 percent decrease for the year).

The reports don’t point to supply chain issues or chip shortages, which have plagued much of the electronics industry, as the reason for Apple walking back its production plans. Instead, they cite lower-than-expected demand for Apple’s latest budget-focused phone.

Read more at the Verge


Amazon 1 – Second Alabama Amazon Union Vote Count Began Monday

The National Labor Relations Board will start sifting through the ballots beginning today. Approximately 6,100 were mailed out to employees in Bessemer in February. The vote will determine whether employees want to be represented by the Retail, Wholesale & Department Store Union (RWDSU).

Workers previously voted by mail from early February through late March of last year on the same question. Amazon convincingly won that vote, with 1,798 voting no on unionization, and 738 voting yes.  Only about 12.5% of the eligible workers at Amazon’s Bessemer fulfillment center actually voted to unionize, even after an election period that lasted for almost two months. That showing also came after weeks of national media coverage and public shows of support that went all the way to President Joe Biden.

Read more at AL.com


Amazon 2 – NYC Amazon Workers Begin Voting in Historic Union Election

Amazon workers at the company’s JFK8 Staten Island warehouse started casting ballots on Friday on whether to form a union as labor organizers look to New York for the first-ever union victory in the retail giant’s 28-year history. The Push to  organize is spearheaded by a group of workers known as the Amazon Labor Union (ALU). In-person voting at JFK8 will last until March 30, with votes set to be counted on March 31.

“Whichever way they vote, I’m happy to see it happen,” Smalls said. Workers at the company’s other warehouse in Staten Island, LDJ5, will also vote in person on whether to unionize starting on April 25, according to a National Labor Relations Board election notice.

Read more at The NY Post


 

 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 481

Post: Mar. 27, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


February Durable Goods Orders Fell 2.2%, Well Below Consensus

New orders for U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in February, while shipments slowed, but demand for goods remains strong, which should keep manufacturing expanding. Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, fell 2.2% after increasing 1.6% in January. They were pulled down by a 5.6% decline in orders for transportation equipment, which followed a 3.2% increased in January.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, slipped 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. These so-called core capital goods orders jumped 1.3% in January. Demand for goods remains strong even as spending is shifting back to services, keeping manufacturing growing. But the sector, which accounts for 11.9% of the economy, continues to battle supply bottlenecks.

Read more at Reuters


FERC Walks Back New Pipeline Rules

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has rolled back sweeping new policies for large natural gas projects, including a framework for assessing how pipelines and other facilities contribute to climate change, weeks after prominent lawmakers panned the changes. In a decision issued unanimously at the commission’s monthly meeting yesterday, FERC will revert back to its long-standing method for reviewing natural gas pipeline applications — while opening changes announced in February to feedback rather than applying them immediately.

Last month, in addition to scrutinizing applications for new interstate natural gas pipelines, FERC also established a 100,000 tons-a-year greenhouse gas emissions threshold for pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals to determine whether it will automatically initiate a more stringent environmental impact statement. Those policies took immediate effect on pending applications, the commission said at the time. Republicans and Senate Energy Chair Joe Manchin have blasted the policy shift as agency overreach, and committee Republicans introduced a bill Wednesday to stop the move from taking effect.” FERC Chair Richard Glick said. ‘‘We are re-engaging in inviting stakeholders to comment. 

Read more at E&E News


Hochul Wants to Take Temperature Down, Considers Gas Tax Relief in NYS Budget Talks

Since she was elevated to the governor’s office in August, Hochul has pledged to boost transparency in state government and the posturing has been consciously less bombastic. Her first budget, nevertheless, still can be consequential. She wants to alter New York’s 2019 law that ended cash bail requirements for many criminal charges by adding some gun crimes as well as for repeat offenses. 

The budget is being negotiated amid deepening concerns for New Yorkers about the state of the economy and their personal finances. New York is projected to collect $2 billion in gas tax revenue this fiscal year. The money is used for road and bridge maintenance as well as mass transit. New Yorkers pay about  48 cents per gallon of gas in total taxes. “We are very sensitive to this especially since the vast majority of our state does not have public transportation options available to them,” Hochul said. “It’s something we’re very sensitive to and we’ll continue talking about in the budget context.” 

Read more at Spectrum News


US COVID – Vaccination Stalls

The US CDC is currently reporting 79.65 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 971,212 deaths. The decline in daily incidence is tapering off, with the current average at 27,545 new cases per day. Daily mortality continues to decline, down to 787 deaths per day on March 22.* Notably, the average daily mortality is at its lowest level since late-November 2021, prior to the start of the Omicron surge.

The US has administered 559 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Daily vaccinations have stalled, down from the most recent peak of 1.79 million doses per day on December 6 to approximately 169,000 on March 17. Data are relatively unchanged since last week. A total of 255 million individuals have received at least 1 vaccine dose, which corresponds to 76.8% of the entire US population. A total of 217.2 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 65.4% of the total population. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 27:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.5% of all New Yorkers – 16,468,281 (plus 2,169 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,712,982 (plus 340).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 76.1% of all New Yorkers – 14,749,752 (plus -7,659 adjusted down for incorrect data).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,503,667 (plus 208). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,309,800
  • In the Hudson Valley – 869,530

The Governor updated COVID data through March 27.  There were 7 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 70,107 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 823.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 135

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 2.29%    –   13.99 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.22%   –   11.23 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Why Don’t Kids Get COVID Badly? Scientists Work on Solving One of the Pandemic’s Biggest Mysteries

Scientists are still somewhat baffled as to why children are not badly affected by Covid, although studies are slowly shedding light on how, and why, children’s responses to Covid differ from those among adults.

“A number of theories have been suggested, including a more effective innate immune response, less risk of immune over-reaction as occurs in severe Covid, fewer underlying co-morbidities and possibly fewer ACE-2 receptors in the upper respiratory epithelium — the receptor to which SARS-CoV-2 [Covid] binds,” Dr. Andrew Freedman, an academic in infectious diseases at the U.K.’s Cardiff University Medical School, told CNBC in emailed comments, adding that nonetheless the phenomenon was not “fully understood.

Read more at CNBC


If No One Else is Wearing a Mask, Should You?

No state in the US is now requiring everyone to wear a mask indoors to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Yet in many supermarkets, office buildings, movie theaters, and other indoor locations, some people are still masking up. But if only half, or a few, or nobody else is doing so, does the mask offer the wearer sufficient protection? The question is becoming more urgent because even though rates of COVID-19 in most of the U.S. are currently low, they are rising in Europe—due to the fast-spreading variant Omicron BA.2—which has often presaged a spike here.

Jaimie Meyer, an infectious disease physician at Yale Medicine emphasizes that even when an infected person is maskless, anyone around them who has their own mask reduces the chance that droplets will find their way to their respiratory system and sicken them. Here’s what Meyer and other experts say about masking and how to gauge when it’s safe to ditch the mask, and when it’s not.

Read more at Nat Geo


Mayor Adams Lifts Vaccine Mandate for Performers and Athletes Ahead of MLB’s Opening Day

Kyrie Irving and other unvaccinated athletes will be allowed to play professional sports in New York City under a major policy change Mayor Eric Adams announceD Thursday. Adams has been relaxing Covid-19 policies instituted by former Mayor Bill de Blasio since taking office Jan. 1, as he seeks to resume a sense of normalcy in the pandemic-ravaged city.

The news comes in advance of the start of baseball season. The Mets home opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks is scheduled for April 15, and the Yankees are hosting the Boston Red Sox on April 7. Players who have been coy about their vaccination status on both teams have been awaiting news out of City Hall, following Nets star Kyrie Irving’s suspension from home games due to the city’s rules.

Read more at Politico NY


Jackson Lewis’ Vaccine Mandate Litigation Tracker

Attorneys at Jackson Lewis P.C. have developed a snapshot of nationwide vaccine-related labor and employment cases in the form of a Vaccine Mandate Litigation Tracker. The Tracker provides employers with the latest information on COVID-19 vaccination mandate litigation, with a focus on the lawsuits arising from vaccine requirements implemented by employers. The Tracker features:

  • A map of employer mandate lawsuits
  • A look at which industries are facing lawsuits
  • A look at the most common legal claims 
  • Additional insights from Jackson Lewis attorneys

Jackson Lewis has been helping clients address the legal challenges presented by COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic and has been a tremendous help to Council of Industry members. 

Visit the Tracker


What to do if You Need to Start Paying Attention to Cybersecurity Very, Very Quickly

To companies that haven’t prioritized cybersecurity, one wonders whether frequent alerts from the White House and conversations about preparedness against the Russians may sound like the boy crying wolf. But what if the level of Russian cyberaggression does spike to such egregiously high levels as to practically demand businesses pay attention?

If the red alert alarms do go off, advice about running cybersecurity drills and deploying new security tools on PCs and encrypting data may be too little, too late. So, IndustryWeek asked their experts for a list of cybersecurity actions a business could reasonably expect to complete in only five business days.

Read more at IndustryWeek


New Jobless Claims Fall to 187,000, Setting More Than Five-Decade Low

U.S. jobless claims set a more than 50-year low last week as the red-hot labor market shows few signs of cooling in the near-term.

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended March 19: 187,000 vs. 210,000 expected and a revised 215,000 during prior week.
  • Continuing claims, week ended March 12: 1.350 million vs. 1.400 million expected and a revised 1.417 million during prior week.

At 187,000, new jobless claims improved for a back-to-back week and reached the lowest level since September 1969. Continuing claims also fell further to reach 1.35 million — the least since January 1970.

Read more at YahooFinance


Skilled Trade Programs are Booming After College Enrollment Dropped in the Pandemic

More than a million students held off from going to college in this pandemic, but there are some bright spots happening at community colleges. Some programs in skilled trades like construction, HVAC and automotive repair are seeing an uptick in enrollment. In some places, it’s as high as 40% more.

College enrollment dropped during the pandemic. But programs in the skilled trades are booming. NPR’s Elissa Nadworny visits two community colleges where students learn to build houses and fix cars

Read/Listen at NPR


German Business Confidence Drops Sharply on War, Energy Worries

German business confidence has dropped sharply as company managers’ outlook for the coming months darkens following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a survey showed Friday.  The Ifo institute said its monthly confidence index, a closely watched indicator in Europe’s biggest economy, fell to 90.8 points in March from 95.8 in February. It said that sentiment “collapsed.”

The index’s expectations component fell by a record amount, even more sharply than it did when the coronavirus pandemic hit Germany in March 2020, Ifo said.

Read more at US News


UK Consumer Confidence Slides as Inflation and War Worries Mount 

British consumer confidence sank to levels last seen in late 2020 this month due to worries about galloping inflation, higher interest rates and the war in Ukraine, a survey showed on Friday. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell for the fourth month in a row to -31 from -26 in February, its lowest since November 2020, deep in the coronavirus pandemic.

The survey’s gauge of personal finances for the coming year slumped to a joint record low, matched only by July 2008 when the global financial crisis was reaching a climax. “A wall of worry is confronting consumers this month and there is an unmistakable sense of crisis in our numbers,” Joe Staton, GfK’s client strategy director, said.

Read more at Reuters


ECB Announces Timeline to Gradually Phase Out Pandemic Collateral Easing

The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to end easy collateral terms that commenced at the start of COVID-19 and tighten banks’ access to liquidity, the bank announced Thursday (March 24). The pandemic collateral easing measures that were introduced nearly two years ago will be phased out in three steps between July 2022 and March 2024, the ECB said.

“Phasing out of measures will gradually restore Eurosystem’s pre-pandemic risk tolerance and avoid collateral availability cliff effects,” the central bank wrote. “This gradual phasing out allows ample time for the Eurosystem’s counterparties to adapt,” the ECB said. The ECB’s action represents one more step towards bringing an end to support measures the bank implemented to cushion the economic impact of the coronavirus. 

Read more at PYMNTS.com


Census Data Reveals How Many People Have Fled NYC During COVID Pandemic

New York County saw its population plunge by 110,958 or 6.9% between July 2020 and July 2021 — coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic. New York City accounted for four of the top US counties with population losses. Hudson County in neighboring New Jersey also landed in the top 10, which means the NY metropolitan region accounted for five of the top 10 counties with population losses.

Brooklyn’s population declined by 86,341 residents or 3.5%, the sixth worst percentage in the nation.  The Bronx sunk by 41,490 or 3.2% — the eighth highest percentage drop. Queens County followed in ninth place with a 3.1% decrease, or 64,648 population loss.  Only Staten Island, Richmond County, escaped the top ten list.

Read more at the NY Post


 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 480

Post: Mar. 23, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Hydrocarbons are Used to Make Everything, and Someone has to Bear the Brunt of Higher Oil and Natural-Gas

The headlines about high oil and gas prices seem far away from products like plastic wrap or lawn fertilizer. In reality, though, these everyday items need hydrocarbons to get made, and all across the supply chain, the struggle is on over who will bear the burden of higher costs. “Oil trickles down to everything,” said Josh Lee, the financial chief for chemical distributor CJ Chemicals LLC.

Much of the higher price for oil and natural gas is likely to get passed on to consumers, analysts say. But especially in Asia, where consumer and housing demand recently has been less robust than the U.S., companies along the supply chain fear they will be the ones bearing the brunt.

Read more at the WSJ


Tax Relief for Manufacturers Organized as Passthrough Entities Part of Ongoing Budget Negotiations

In 2014 a zero percent corporate franchise tax rate was enacted for Manufacturers organized as “C” corporations. While it provided significant help to those, often larger, firms it left about 75% of manufactures still paying one of the highest tax rates in the nation, and therefore putting them at a competitive disadvantage with manufacturers located in other states. The majority of manufacturers in New York are small-to-medium sized manufacturers organized as S corps, proprietorships, LLCs and/or partnerships (pass-through entities). The Council of Industry and the Manufacturers Alliance of NY are asking that the legislature correct an inequity and extend much needed tax relief to all manufacturers regardless of how they are organized. 

You can show your support for this proposal by adding your name to a letter to the governor and legislative leaders.

Sign the letter at the Council of Industry’s Advocacy Page


Bail Debate Scrambles New York State Budget Talks

A leak of proposed changes to New York’s controversial law that largely ended cash bail requirements for many criminal charges is raining on the budget parade at the state Capitol.  With roughly a week and a half to go before the budget deal, last week’s disclosure that Gov. Kathy Hochul is trying to negotiate changes to the law have set up a difficult needle for her to thread: Progressives don’t want to do it; suburban and upstate Democrats feel like they must. 

Up until last week, Hochul’s public position had been to follow the lead of state lawmakers. But with the document outlining the proposed changes having been leaked, the proposed changes surrounding the law are now part of the often messy and secretive sausage-making that is the state budget process.  

Read more at Spectrum News


US COVID – A Third of U.S. COVID Now Caused by Omicron BA.2 as Overall Cases Fall

About one-in-three COVID-19 cases in the United States are now caused by the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant of the coronavirus, according to government data on Tuesday that also showed overall infections still declining from January’s record highs. In the Northeast, including New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts, Omicron BA.2 now makes up more than half the cases, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Despite the rise of the extremely contagious sub-variant also seen in other countries, U.S. health experts say a major wave of new infections here appears unlikely. Top U.S. infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said at a Washington Post event on Tuesday that he does not believe there will be a major surge soon, “unless something changes dramatically.”

Read more at Reuters


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 20:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,448,924 (plus 1,889 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,710,557 (plus 297).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.9% of all New Yorkers – 14,737,334 (plus 1,805).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,501,374 (plus 276). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,265,004
  • In the Hudson Valley – 864,009

The Governor updated COVID data through March 20.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,958 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 900.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 159

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.87%    –   10.30 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.36%   –   16.32 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Madeleine Albright, First Female Secretary of State, Dies at 84

Madeleine Albright, a refugee from both Nazi Germany and Soviet communism who became the first woman to serve as U.S. secretary of State, died on Wednesday. She was 84. As the world rearranged itself after the Cold War, Albright was a major figure in international diplomacy as President Bill Clinton’s ambassador to the United Nations and later his secretary of State.

Her approach to diplomacy was dubbed, by both admirers and critics, as the Albright Doctrine, and took to heart the notion of using U.S. might in support of both American strategic interests and moral values. A statement from her family said the cause was cancer, and that she was surrounded by friends and family. The statement recounted Albright’s journey to public office, in which she “rose to the heights of American policy-making.” She was a “tireless champion of democracy and human rights,” her family said.

Read more at Politico


Moderna to Seek Authorization for COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids Under Six

Moderna on Wednesday said it will soon seek emergency use authorization for its two-dose COVID-19 vaccine in children under six years old, after preliminary data showed kids in that age group had a similar immune response to adolescents and young adults when given a smaller dose of the vaccine.

The company said it will be submitting data to the Food and Drug Administration “in the coming weeks.” However, Moderna said the vaccine was only about 44 percent effective at preventing symptomatic infection in children 6 months to 2 years old, and 37 percent effective in children aged 2 through 5. 

Read more at The Hill


India Approves Novavax for Teens

India granted emergency approval for the use of Novavax’s COVID vaccine in people aged from 12 to 17 years old on Tuesday, making the country the first in the world to approve the shot for teenagers. In a study released last month, Novavax said that its vaccine was 82% effective against infection among teenagers. The study was conducted between May and September of 2021 when the Delta variant was dominant.

India granted emergency approval for the use of Novavax’s COVID vaccine in people aged from 12 to 17 years old on Tuesday, making the country the first in the world to approve the shot for teenagers.

Read more at Fortune


Italian Study Shows Ventilation Can Cut School COVID Cases by 82%

An Italian study published on Tuesday suggests that efficient ventilation systems can reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in schools by more than 80%. An experiment overseen by the Hume foundation think-tank compared coronavirus contagion in 10,441 classrooms in Italy’s central Marche region.

COVID infections were steeply lower in the 316 classrooms that had mechanical ventilation systems, with the reduction in cases more marked according to the strength of the systems.

Read more at Reuters


6 Crucial Steps for Managing Through Periods of High Inflation

Unless you’re a child prodigy, you probably weren’t a manager the last time inflation was this high—in 1982.  Fortune’s Geoff Colvin and author Ram Charan offer steps on how to best manage in a time of high inflation: “Leaders who skillfully manage through today’s economic volatility will almost certainly report fatter profit margins and far outpace competitors for years to come.”

On one hand, such a long stretch of moderation is a blessing for consumers and corporations. On the other, most of today’s managers haven’t had to build the skills needed to guide their companies through high inflation, which comes with sharp price increases and demand for higher wages. That’s a problem. Here are some tips.

Read more at Fortune (Subscription)


UK Inflation Hits Fresh Multi-Decade High of 6.2% on Surging Energy Prices

U.K. inflation came in at an annual 6.2% in February, its highest since March 1992, as soaring food, fuel and energy costs continue to deepen the country’s cost of living crisis. February’s Consumer Price Index print was above consensus expectations among economists polled by Refinitiv for a 5.9% annual figure, and vastly outstripped January’s previous 30-year high of 5.5%.

On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, exceeding expectations for a 0.6% rise and marking the largest monthly CPI increase between January and February since 2009. The Bank of England has hiked interest rates at three consecutive monetary policy meetings, raising the costs of borrowing from its historic low of 0.1% to 0.75%, as it looks to contain runaway inflation without stomping out economic growth.

Read more at CNBC


European Natural Gas Prices Fall Amid Boost in Supplies – LNG Recap

European natural gas prices on Monday finished at the lowest point since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, as the arrival of spring and an influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) appeared to tip the balance of a market on edge over the war.  LNG deliveries are also poised to jump 71% week/week to 4.8 billion cubic meters, according to Schneider Electric. Arbitrage spreads through the remainder of the year show Europe is expected to continue edging out Asia as the premium market for Atlantic Basin LNG cargoes. 

Mild weather is expected across Central and Northern Europe over the next five days, according to Maxar’s Weather Desk. Russian natural gas flows to the continent also remain strong, and a jump in imports from Norway were adding to supplies as the week got underway. 

Read more at Natural Gas Intel


Gas Tax Holiday

With gas prices soaring nationwide, Maryland and Georgia have become the first states in the country to temporarily suspend their gas taxes. The measure in Maryland will be in effect for 30 days, saving drivers 36.1 cents per gallon on gas, or 36.85 cents per gallon on diesel fuel. Georgia’s suspension will last through May 31, suspending levies of 29.1 cents per gallon on gas, and 32.6 cents per gallon of diesel.

The White House has reportedly dropped a proposal to send out pre-paid gas cards, given strong opposition in Congress over the plan’s viability and effectiveness. Delivering the cards could also distract the IRS in the middle of the tax filing season. Regular gasoline now averages $4.23 per gallon, according to AAA, down about 7 cents from a week earlier, but up from $2.87 one year ago.

Read more at Seeking Alpha


Measuring Cybersecurity Effectiveness

Imagine a world in cybersecurity where we actually measure the effectiveness of our programs. Where we use the power and scalability of computers to perform the same types of tests considered a minimum requirement in other fields. Where we manage our control environments and assess the outcomes to determine the strength of our programs. The truth is that computing environments are actually easy to measure.

Opportunities for efficacy experiments abound. For example, an organization could apply the same techniques Microsoft did in its Security Intelligence Report volume 20: “The MSRT reported that computers that were never found to be running real-time security software during 2H15 were between 2.7 and 5.6 times as likely to be infected with malware as computers that were always found to be protected.” A closer look at this data reveals an efficacy score of about 64%.

Read more at CSO 


GlobalFoundries CEO: Meeting Chip Demand Will Take Years

Demand for GlobalFoundries chips is at least 10 times greater than output, and scaling up production will take years, says CEO Tom Caulfield. “I think for the better part of the next five to 10 years, we’ll be chasing supply in this industry, not demand,” Caulfield says. Chips are needed for just about all devices, including laptops, home appliances like refrigerators, gaming consoles and medical equipment.

The U.S. produces just around 12% of the world’s supply and it has relied heavily on chips produced in Asia. But when the pandemic hit, it shut down major production plants, decreasing supply. There is renewed focus on producing more chips at home, as some experts warn not doing so could also be a national security risk.  

Read more at CBS News


WSJ Documentary – Why Global Supply Chains May Never Be the Same

The pandemic exposed breaking points in the system that would fundamentally alter consumer expectations of getting anything we want whenever we want it.
  
Every day, millions of sailors, truck drivers, longshoremen, warehouse workers and delivery drivers keep mountains of goods moving into stores and homes to meet consumers’ increasing expectations of convenience. But this complex movement of goods underpinning the global economy is far more vulnerable than many imagined

Watch the video (55 minutes) 


 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 479

Post: Mar. 22, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Powell Talks Recession Risk, Super-Size Fed Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell on Monday responded to the legion of economists casting doubt on policymakers’ Goldilocks forecast issued last week. But his rebuttal appears only to have left investors bracing for more aggressive tightening. Powell essentially delivered two messages that some might see as contradictory. First, contrary to conventional wisdom, Fed rate hikes haven’t led to recession every time, except for the 1994 tightening, he said. Second, the Fed is prepared to tighten much more aggressively than it indicated last week.

Powell’s latest speech seemed to underscore what some economists had already concluded. The seven rate hikes penciled in for 2022 at last week’s meeting were “merely a floor,” not a base case, Jefferies chief U.S. financial economist Aneta Markowska wrote Friday.

Read more at Investors Business Daily


New Trade Deal to Lift Tariffs on British Steel, U.S. Motorcycles, Whiskey

The United States and Britain ended a four-year dispute over U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs on Tuesday, pledging to work together to counter China in a deal that also removes retaliatory tariffs from U.S. motorcycles, whiskey and other products. Under the deal, Britain will receive a duty-free import quota of over 500,000 tons of steel “melted and poured” in the country annually. It also sets smelt and cast requirements on aluminum.

In a joint statement, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the deal would protect steel and aluminum companies – and their workers – in both countries, allowing the allies to focus on what they say are “China’s unfair trade practices.”

Read more at Reuters


Russia’s Proposed Ban On Uranium Exports Sends Stocks Soaring

Several weeks ago, when Biden instituted a wholesale ban on Russian energy exports, he explicitly carved out Russian uranium suppliers for the simple reason that the US is very much reliant on Russia for its nuclear power plant needs – after all, Russia is the third-largest source of U.S. uranium, accounting for about 16% of total U.S. imports.

Tuesday the very thorny issue of Russian uranium came to a head when Russia news agency TASS cited deputy prime minister Novak, who said that Russia is considering a ban on Uranium exports. The news sent a basket of Uranium stocks and ETFs to fresh 2022 highs and prompted calls for expanded domestic mining. 

Read more at Oil Price


US COVID – Omicron Subvariant BA.2

Public health professionals are warning state and federal government officials of a potential uptick in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations due to the increasing prevalence of the Omicron subvariant BA.2. During a briefing this week, White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci shared that current evidence suggests BA.2 is 50%-60% more transmissible than the original Omicron variant (BA.1), with similar clinical presentations. The US CDC estimates that 35% of new cases are caused by the BA.2 subvariant, and officials predict that it likely will become the predominant variant over the coming weeks. 

US health officials are watching the situation in other countries, including the UK and France, for clues about how the BA.2 subvariant might impact the US. In the UK, new COVID-19 case numbers have doubled in the past 3 weeks, and hospitalizations also are rising. Case numbers also are rising in France. There is some hope that the increased proportion of individuals with immune protection from vaccination, natural infection, or a combination could help blunt a new wave of infections in the US, leading to a less stark surge in new cases.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 20:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,448,924 (plus 1,889 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,710,557 (plus 297).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.9% of all New Yorkers – 14,737,334 (plus 1,805).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,501,374 (plus 276). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,265,004
  • In the Hudson Valley – 864,009

The Governor updated COVID data through March 20.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,958 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 900.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 159

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.87%    –   10.30 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.36%   –   16.32 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


CDC Study on Vaccine Effectiveness 

The CDC  COVID-19 Emergency Response Team published findings from a study on mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness against invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and death. The researchers conducted a case-control study from March 2021-January 2022, spanning both the Delta and Omicron surges. The study included more than 7,500 hospitalized COVID-19 patients—1,440 hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients who received IMV or died (case) and 6,104 hospitalized adult patients who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection (control).

Most of the vaccinated COVID-19 patients who received IMV or died “had complex underlying conditions, commonly immunosuppression.” The researchers estimated the overall VE against IMV or death to be 90%, including 88% for 2 doses and 94% for 3 doses (eg, including a booster). Specifically during the Omicron surge, the researchers estimated the effectiveness to be 79% for 2 doses and 94% for 3 doses.  This study provides further evidence that mRNA vaccines provide substantial protection against severe COVID-19 disease and death—particularly with booster doses—including over prolonged periods and against emerging variants.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


Moderna Expands COVID-19 Vaccines to Treat Related Illnesses

Moderna said Tuesday that it would expand its COVID-19 vaccine to treat related illnesses. The biotech company announced the extension of its “mRNA pipeline” with two development programs that build on the company’s experience with the “Spikevax” vaccine. 

The programs include a combination respiratory vaccine candidate and a new initiative against all four of the endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV). The respiratory combination vaccine program will be launched to target the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).  The new combination respiratory vaccine candidate (mRNA-1230) is envisioned as an annual booster targeting the diseases. 

Read more at Fox News


Biden Tells US Businesses to ‘Harden’ Defenses Against Russia Cyber Threat

President Joe Biden on Monday warned of intelligence pointing to a growing Russian cyber threat and urged US businesses to “immediately” prepare defenses. “If you have not already done so, I urge our private sector partners to harden your cyber defenses immediately,” he said in a statement.

Biden cited “evolving intelligence that the Russian government is exploring options for potential cyberattacks,” including in response to Western sanctions over Moscow’s launching of the war in Ukraine. Biden said the U.S. government would “continue to use every tool to deter, disrupt, and if necessary, respond to cyberattacks against critical infrastructure.”

Read more at IndustryWeek


Koch Industries, Built on Oil, Bets Big on U.S. Batteries

Founded more than 80 years ago as an oil refiner, Koch Industries is now the most diversified U.S. battery investor, said Vivas Kumar, a former Tesla Inc. senior manager and industry analyst who last year launched a battery-parts startup. “It’s stunning just how many different battery supply chain players they’ve taken a stake in,” he said.

Koch Industries is now a top shareholder in startups such as Freyr Battery SA,  Aspen Aerogels Inc. and Standard Lithium Ltd.  The money comes at a crucial time for many of these companies, which need to spend heavily to commercialize their products. Koch appears to be focused on building up the battery industry in the U.S. “The speed of the energy transition is directly correlated with companies like Koch participating in it,” said Tom Jensen, CEO of Freyr, a Norway-based company working to make low-cost, sustainable batteries. 

Read more at the WSJ


Musk Hands Drivers First Teslas from New German Gigafactory

Elon Musk was cheered as he oversaw the handover of Tesla’s (TSLA.O) first German-made cars at its Gruenheide plant on Tuesday, marking the start of the U.S. automaker’s inaugural European hub just two years after it was first announced. “This is a great day for the factory,” Musk said, describing it as “another step in the direction of a sustainable future”.

Although German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who also attended the event, lauded the gigafactory as the future of the car industry, it has faced opposition and some environmental activists blocked the factory’s entrance while displaying banners flagging its high water use.

Read more at Reuters


VW Targets $7.1 Billion for North America, Could Build ID.Buzz Here 

Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) plans to invest at least $7.1 billion over the next five years in North America and add 25 new electric vehicles there by 2030, including a recreation of VW’s classic Microbus, a top executive said on Monday.

The latter model, called ID.Buzz, is a centerpiece of the plan. It will be imported initially from VW’s Hanover plant in Germany, but ultimately could be assembled in the United States or Mexico, according to Scott Keogh, president and CEO of Volkswagen Group of America.

Read more at Reuters


Labor Shortages Won’t Be Solved with Technology Alone

Now, more than ever, new and innovative technologies are being deployed—or considered for deployment—to answer workforce availability issues and improve safety. However, these technologies won’t provide the desired benefits without careful management, and they require well planned implementation and follow-up to succeed.

The COVID-19 pandemic was only the start of these issues, which now include a shift in expectations about the nature of the workplace itself and willingness to participate in various roles. As the labor market continues to fluctuate, business leaders are facing the harsh reality that these new dynamics and challenges might be here to stay. Part of the changing nature of the workplace includes heightened expectations and demands from employees for health and safety protections. All the while, companies have begun investing heavily in new technologies built, in part, to help address a scarcity of workers.

Read more at EHS Today


Delta Joins Airbus H2-Fuel Research

Delta Air Lines has been identified as the commercial carrier joining Airbus in its effort to develop hydrogen-powered aircraft, known as “ZEROe”. The project’s goal is to introduce the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035, based on hydrogen propulsion. Three aircraft configurations are being pursued, according to Airbus: a commercial jet with turbofan engine technology, other options would include a jet with a turboprop configuration and a blended-wing aircraft with two hybrid-hydrogen turbofan engines.

The airline is making no financial investment in the development, but according to a Delta spokeswoman its input will ill focus defining the requirements for deploying a hydrogen-powered passenger aircraft, including, including production of liquid hydrogen in the U.S. and making the fuel accessibility at U.S airports. Airbus has said it is working to establish a combustion technology that uses liquid hydrogen fuel, combusted with oxygen and powering modified gas-turbine engines – either turbofan or turboprop units.

Read more at American Machinist


SEC Proposes Publicly-Traded Companies Disclose Emissions, Climate Risk

The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a new rule Monday, March 21, that would require large businesses to issue regular reports on greenhouse gas emissions caused by their operations and possible climate-related financial risks. The proposed rule would require relevant businesses to disclose three different “scopes” of greenhouse gas emissions. Scope 1 emissions are those caused directly by a company’s own operations—carbon dioxide from a steel mill, for example. Scope 2 emissions are those indirectly caused by purchasing energy from a greenhouse gas-producing source, like electricity from a coal-powered energy plant, and Scope 3 emissions are those caused indirectly in a company’s value chain, including energy sold to another business.

The rule is currently being made available for public comment. If taken up, it could take effect between 2024 and 2026, according to information published on the SEC’s website. The French news agency AFP noted that the emissions-reporting proposal is similar to efforts taken by regulators in Japan and Europe.

Read more at IndustryWeek


 

 

 

Daily Briefing – 478

Post: Mar. 20, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


NAM Survey: Manufacturers Still Concerned About Supply Chain, Workforce

Most manufacturers remained concerned about inflation, supply chains, unfilled jobs and the possibility of an increased tax burden last month, when the NAM conducted its Q1 2022 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey. There were several notable data points from the survey, which took place from Feb. 11 to Feb. 25. These include the following:

  • 88.1% of respondents cited supply chain issues as a primary business challenge in the first quarter.
  • 79.0% cited an inability to attract and keep a high-quality workforce.
  • 89.4% had unfilled positions at their companies and were struggling to fill them.
  • Job growth in 2021 rose at the best pace since 1994, and wage growth is now at a 40-year high.

Russia’s war on Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis there and the resulting sanctions will likely make current manufacturer challenges worse and could affect energy prices into the second quarter, said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.

Read more at the NAM


Cost of Imports Increased in February

The cost of imported goods, including oil, grains and autos, increased 1.4% in February. Import prices rose 1.9% in January. The consecutive month increase is the largest in 11 years.  The rise in import prices can largely be attributed to a significant jump in oil prices. The cost of oil rose 8.1% in February, though prices are currently trending down. After rising to nearly $130 a barrel after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is now down to about $100. Export prices increased 3% in February, the highest ever recorded. Exports are up 16.6% over the past year.

Moving forward inflation is likely to remain high through the spring with supply chain delays and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving up prices for many important commodities. On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced the first increase in interest rates in four years.

Read more at MarketWatch


U.S. Industrial Production Increased in February as Manufacturing Output Rebounded

Industrial production in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of February, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. The report showed industrial production rose by 0.5 percent in February after jumping by 1.4 percent in January. The continued increase in production came as manufacturing output jumped by 1.2 percent in February after having been little changed in each of the previous two months.

Mining output also inched up by 0.1 percent in February after surging by 1.3 percent in January, while utilities output slumped by 2.7 percent in February after spiking by 10.4 percent in January.  The Fed said total industrial production in February was up by 7.5 percent compared to a year ago but noted but severe winter weather significantly suppressed industrial activity in February 2021.

Read more at RTT News


US COVID – Vaccinations at Lowest Point Since December 2020

The US CDC is currently reporting 79.4 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 964,831 deaths. The decline in daily incidence is tapering off, with the current average at slightly fewer than 31,000 new cases per day. Daily mortality continues to decline, down to 1,107 deaths per day on March 15. While daily mortality continues in an encouraging direction, the US is still reporting more than 1,000 deaths per day. At this pace, the US would surpass 1 million cumulative deaths in the next month.

The US has administered 558 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Daily vaccinations continue to decline, down from the most recent peak of 1.79 million doses per day on December 6 to approximately 190,000 on March 10, the lowest average since the first week of available data in December 2020, when supply was still extremely limited. A total of 255 million individuals have received at least 1 vaccine dose, which corresponds to 76.7% of the entire US population.  A total of 217 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 65.3% of the total population.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 20:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,448,924 (plus 1,889 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,710,557 (plus 297).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.9% of all New Yorkers – 14,737,334 (plus 1,805).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,501,374 (plus 276). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,265,004
  • In the Hudson Valley – 864,009

The Governor updated COVID data through March 20.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,958 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 900.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 159

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.87%    –   10.30 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 2.36%   –   16.32 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


New York HERO Act Designation Over, Six Months Later

The New York HERO Act website was quietly updated on the afternoon of March 18, 2022 to confirm that the designation of COVID-19 as an airborne infectious disease that presents a serious risk of harm to the public health has ended. This means the “activation” of HERO Act safety plans is over. As such, elements of the HERO Act plan are no longer required to be implemented, including daily health screening, and social distancing.

On March 17, 2022, the designation of COVID-19 as an airborne infectious disease that presents a serious risk of harm to the public health under the HERO Act ended. Private sector employers are no longer required to implement their workforce safety plans.

Read more at the National Law Review


Virginia Is Undoing COVID Workplace Rules, Weakening in OSHA’s Permanent Rule Argument

With state and local elected officials pulling back on COVID-19 restrictions across the country, it should not seem too surprising that the state of Virginia is getting ready to withdraw its pandemic-related employee health and safety requirements that earlier served as an example for other states to follow. On Feb. 16, the Virginia Department of Labor and Industry (DOLI) Safety and Health Codes Board (HCB) voted to recommend revoking the Commonwealth’s COVID-19 permanent workplace safety standard.

OSHA issued an ETS requiring employers to ensure their employees were vaccinated against COVID. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down that particular standard as unconstitutional earlier this year. At present, the federal agency is swimming against the tide of nationwide rollbacks and is attempting to resurrect some of these requirements by engaging in a permanent rulemaking process, which federal officials believe would survive future court review.

Read more at EHS Today


Omicron v Delta – Study Reaffirms What We All Suspected

Researchers have confirmed what doctors had already noticed about the Omicron variant of covid-19: that cases are a lot milder than with Delta, which it replaced as the world’s dominant strain. A study published on Thursday in the Lancet, a journal, found that this is because Omicron is intrinsically a less severe virus than Delta.

The study examined 1.5m COVID cases in Britain. After adjusting for past infection, vaccination status and so on, the researchers found that the risk of hospitalization for Omicron cases was 59% lower than for Delta. The risk of dying was 69% lower. Unvaccinated people were also less sickened by Omicron than by Delta. Vaccines were somewhat less effective against Omicron but still highly protective. Three jabs reduced risk of hospitalization or death by more than 70%. Inevitably, Omicron will be overtaken by other variants. The hope is that they will be weaker still.

Read more at Lancet


A New COVID Variant ‘Not Yet Known to the World’ Just Recorded in Israel is Not Yet Cause for Alarm 

Two Israeli travelers returning home from abroad were found carrying a combination of the Omicron variant and the BA.2 “stealth” Omicron variant—a mutation COVID that the country’s health ministry said is “not yet known to the world.”  The Israeli Ministry of Health noted that two COVID strains combining into a new variant was a common phenomenon, explaining that when there are two viruses in the same cell and it multiplies, “they exchange genetic material, creating a new virus.” 

Some scientists argue that stealth Omicron deserves its own Greek letter name in the coronavirus lexicon, but while BA.2 exhibits divergent mutations from the original Omicron variant, scientists have been more comfortable calling it a subvariant, as it shares many similar characteristics with its parent strain.

Read more at Fortune


Hudson Valley Unemployment Rate Drops to 3.6 Percent in January, Labor Force Down Year on Year

The January 2022 unemployment rate for the Hudson Valley Region is 3.6 percent.  It is up from 2.8 percent in December 2021 and down from 6.1 percent in January 2021.  In January 2022, there were 40,500 unemployed in the region, up from 31,300 in December 2021 and down from 68,300 in January 2021.  Year-over-year in January 2022, labor force decreased by 1,300 or 0.1 percent, to 1,126,100.

  • Putnam County 3.3 percent
  • Rockland County 3.3 percent
  • Dutchess County 3.5 percent
  • Orange County 3.7 percent
  • Ulster County 3.7 percent
  • Westchester County 3.7 percent
  • Sullivan County 4.1 percent

Hudson Valley Labor Market Profile – Jan 2022


214,000 Americans Filed New Claims Last Week

New unemployment claims improved more than expected last week, further reflecting a tight labor market and relatively low levels of firings and layoffs.

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended March 12: 214,000 vs. 220,000 expected, 227,000 during prior week.
  • Continuing claims, week ended March 5: 1.419 million vs. 1.480 million expected, 1.494 million during prior week

The labor market has remained a bright spot in the U.S. economy, especially as a brief hit from the Omicron variant earlier this year unwound further in the most recent economic data. However, with inflation running at a 40-year high, many economists have begun to wonder when rising prices ultimately begin to meaningfully dent demand — and in turn weigh on employers’ desires to bring back more labor.

Read more at YahooFinance


Intel Announces Plans to Expand European Chip Production

Intel last week announced its plans for expanding chip production in Europe, up to an $88 billion (€80 billion) investment over the next decade to build new facilities in Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Spain, to support the European Chips Act goal of locating 20% of the world’s microchip production in Europe by 2030.

In the first phase of the expansion plan, Intel will break ground in the first half of 2023 on the “silicon junction,” two new fabs in Magdeburg, Germany, with production to begin in 2027 pending European Commission approval. Intel plans to build in France its main European foundry design center, as well as a European R&D hub around Plateau de Saclay, with a focus at the facility on high performance computing and artificial intelligence design capabilities. 

Read more at IndustryWeek


Why Electric Bills Keep Rising

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average retail residential electricity price increased by 4.3% in 2021 to 13.72 cents per kilowatthour (kWh), its fastest rate since 2008.  “We forecast that residential retail electricity prices will continue to rise in 2022, although at a slightly slower rate,” EIA researchers wrote. “In 2022, we expect the average nominal price will increase by 3.9% to 14.26 cents/kWh.”

A natural gas supply crunch has made it more expensive for utility companies to buy or produce electricity. Those prices are then passed on to consumers. The cost of natural gas delivered to power plants averaged $4.98 per million British thermal units, more than double the cost in 2020. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, natural gas had seen a great deal of volatility. Domestic prices reached the highest levels in years ahead of winter as exporters shipped record amounts overseas, including to Europe.

Read more at YahooFinance


Homebuilders’ Sales Expectations Drop Dramatically, as Mortgage Rates Soar

Rising mortgage rates are starting to take their toll on the nation’s homebuilders, who are more concerned about affordability heading into the all-important spring housing market as mortgage rates surge. Overall, builder sentiment in the market for single-family homes dropped 2 points to 79 in March. February’s read was also revised lower. Last March it stood at 82.

Builders’ sales expectations for the next six months declined a steep 10 points to 70, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The index doesn’t often see such large monthly moves. Builders’ view of current sales conditions fell 3 points to 86. This is the fourth straight monthly decline. 

Read more at CNBC


Mortgage Rates Top 4% for the First Time Since 2019

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage topped 4% for the first time since May 2019, Freddie Mac said Thursday. At the beginning of the year, the average rate on America’s most popular home loan was 3.22%. It hit a record low of 2.65% in January 2021 and spent more than half the year under 3%.

Home-lending costs had been rising ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to raise rates for the first time since 2018. And while the Fed’s quarter-point move didn’t affect Freddie Mac’s weekly average of 4.16%, recorded before the central bank’s announcement, it is likely to send rates even higher. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which tends to rise in tandem with the Fed’s benchmark rate.

Read more at the WSJ


 

 

Daily Briefing – 477

Post: Mar. 16, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Fed Meeting: Quarter Point Increase and as Many as Six More in 2022

The Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed officials responsible for setting monetary policy, increased the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent. The FOMC also projected roughly six more rate hikes this year, along with slower growth and higher inflation. New projections show most officials expect the fed-funds rate to rise to at least 1.875% by the end of this year, to around 2.75% by the end of 2023 and to hold rates there in 2024. 

In a statement following its two-day meeting, the Fed hinted at rising concern about inflationary pressures. It said inflation has been high due to “broader price pressures” and added that the war in Ukraine and “related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation.” The statement also signaled that the Fed could soon announce and implement a plan to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio. The central bank ended a long-running asset-purchase stimulus program last week.

Read more at the WSJ


DiNapoli: Cuomo Administration Misled the Public Regarding COVID-19 Nursing Home Deaths

The State Health Department was unprepared to respond to infectious disease outbreaks in nursing homes even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit New York, an audit by State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s office found. The auditors also found the department did not provide the public with accurate COVID-19 death counts and became entangled in the undercounting of those deaths as the executive took control of the information provided to the public. The health department understated the number of nursing home deaths due to COVID-19 by at least 4,100, and at times during the pandemic by more than 50 percent, the DiNapoli report said.

“The pandemic was devastating and deadly for New Yorkers living in nursing homes.” DiNapoli said. “Our audit findings are extremely troubling. The public was misled at the highest level of state government through distortion and suppression of facts when New Yorkers deserved the truth.”

Read more at the Comptroller’s website


Retail Sales Come Up Short in February as Inflation Slows Consumer Spending

Advance retail sales grew 0.3% for the month, slightly below the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Stripping out autos, sales were up 0.2%, well below expectations for a 0.9% increase and indicative that after a rapid pace to start the year, consumers were slowing down. One bright spot in the data released Wednesday is that January spending was revised up to an increase of 4.9%, a blistering pace that was even stronger than the initial estimate of 3.8%.

The spending numbers were well below the rise in prices, which increased 0.8% in February. Retail spending numbers are not adjusted for inflation. The biggest dent in February’s numbers came in online shopping, with non-store sales down 3.7%. The two-month numbers “suggest that real consumption growth remains reasonably solid” though some headwinds are beginning to show, particularly from expected interest rate increases coming from the Federal Reserve, said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Read more at CNBC


US COVID – Lawmakers Push Pandemic Probe Modeled on 9/11 Commission 

A Senate panel voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to establish an independent task force to probe the U.S. response to the pandemic — the closest lawmakers have come to supporting such an investigation, two years into the crisis. The vote on that bipartisan legislation, part of the Prevent Pandemics Act advanced by the Senate’s health committee, is the first step in a fraught political journey, and comes as Democrats and Republicans have pursued their own probes, seeking to shape public perceptions ahead of midterm elections that could alter the balance of power in Washington.

The bill introduced by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Sen. Richard Burr (R -N.C.), calls for lawmakers representing both parties to choose a 12-member task force that would inquire into the nation’s readiness and response to the coronavirus on the federal, state and local levels, and issue a final report and recommendations within 18 months. Their broader pandemic legislation cleared their panel in a 20-2 vote on Tuesday but still needs to receive a floor vote in both chambers of Congress before potentially becoming law.

Read more at Inside Sources


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 13:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 88.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,352,894 (plus 833 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,703,092 (plus 252).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,602,959 (plus 1,705).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,491,801 (plus 355). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 6,965,121
  • In the Hudson Valley – 840,206  

The Governor updated COVID data through March 13.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,057 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,911.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 342

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.94%    –   10.57 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.71%   –   8.95 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Compromise Reached on COVID-19 Vaccine Intellectual Property Rights Waiver

The EU, South Africa, India and the U.S. have reached a compromise in long-running negotiations on a waiver on intellectual property rights for coronavirus products. Supporters of a waiver argue that it would have led to a significant increase in the production of coronavirus products during the pandemic and could have saved many lives. It would, in effect, have freed up producers to replicate coronavirus vaccines, tests and diagnostics without fear of infringing on pharmaceutical companies’ patents.

Until the end of last year, coronavirus vaccines were in short supply, with many poorer countries, particularly in Africa, having almost no access to vaccines. Under the compromise, which currently only covers vaccines, developing countries that have exported less than 10 percent of the world’s coronavirus vaccine doses in 2021 would be able to authorize the use of a patented coronavirus vaccine without the owner of the patent’s consent.

Read more at Politico


Raskin Removes Herself from Consideration for Fed Post

Sarah Bloom Raskin, President Biden’s nominee to become the government’s most powerful banking regulator, withdrew from consideration on Tuesday, the White House said, amid opposition to her nomination from Republicans and a key Democrat, Andrew Ackerman and Ken Thomas report.

The withdrawal is a major blow for the Biden administration, which has struggled to advance its financial nominees through the evenly divided Senate. It came a day after Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a key Democratic vote in the evenly divided chamber, said Monday that he couldn’t support Ms. Raskin’s nomination, citing her views on addressing climate change.

Read more at the WSJ


EIA: U.S. Shale Production Set For Big Jump In April

U.S. shale oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins are set for their biggest rise since March of 2020, according to new EIA data. The Energy Information’s Drilling Productivity Report is estimating that the total production in the seven major U.S. shale basins will rise by 117,000 bpd next month, to 8.708 million bpd, according to the EIA’s latest version of the Drilling Productivity Report. The news comes as U.S. crude oil production finds itself in the spotlight as to the reasons they are not producing more.

For April, the EIA now sees U.S. crude in the Permian rising from 5.138 million bpd to 5.208 million bpd—a 70,000 bpd rise. The Eagle Ford is expected to see the second largest increase with a 23,000 bpd rise to 1.146 million bpd. The Bakken is expected to increase by 16,000 bpd.

Read more at Oilprice.com


Volvo Cars Teams up With Starbucks for Pilot EV Charging Network

Volvo Cars U.S. (VOLVb.ST) said on Tuesday it was partnering with coffee giant Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) to create a public electric vehicle (EV) charging network that is set to begin this summer. The Swedish automaker maker said that its pilot installations would include as many as 60 Volvo-branded ChargePoint DC fast chargers at up to 15 Starbucks store locations.

Volvo, which plans to have a charger installed at every 100 miles, said it expects the installations to be completed by the end of 2022. The charging stations could be used by all EV drivers for a fee. However, Volvo car owners could use these at no charge or at preferential rates.

Read more at Reuters


China Stocks Jump Most Since 2008 as State Council Vows Support

Stocks across Hong Kong and China staged a stunning rebound after China’s state council vowed to keep its stock market stable amid a historic rout that erased $1.5 trillion in value over the past two sessions. The rally followed a report by the official Xinhua news agency that China will keep the stock market stable and support overseas share listing, citing a meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He. The comprehensive statement also sought to resolve other woes that have plagued the market, particularly concerns over Beijing’s tech crackdown, saying efforts to “rectify” internet platform companies should end soon.

China’s central bank and its banking and insurance regulator soon followed suit to pledge their role in ensuring a stable capital market, a coordinated move that underscores the determination of the authorities.

Read more at YahooFinance


Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia. China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports. If priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. The Saudis are also considering including yuan-denominated futures contracts, known as the petroyuan, in the pricing model of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. , known as Aramco.

The talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom, the people said. The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.

Read more at the WSJ


SBA Announced COVID EIDL Program Borrowers to Receive an Additional Deferment 

Isabella Casillas Guzman, head of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) yesterday directed the Agency to provide additional deferment of principal and interest payments for existing COVID Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program. Borrowers  now have a total of 30 months deferment from inception on all approved COVID EIDL loans. The extended deferment period will provide additional flexibility to small business owners impacted by the pandemic, especially those in hard-hit sectors managing disruption with recent variants, as well as recent supply chain and inflation challenges amid a growing economic recovery.

Since its inception, the COVID EIDL program, a federal disaster relief loan, has allocated more than $351 billion in relief aid to 3.9 million borrowers.

Read more at SBA.gov


Why Workers and Employers are Ghosting Each Other

Ghosting is a practice that’s common in the recruitment process; one recent study of 1,500 global workers found that 75% of jobseekers have been ghosted by a company after a job interview. Employers openly acknowledge that they do it; only 27% of US employers surveyed by job listings site Indeed said they hadn’t ghosted a candidate in the past year. But it’s not just companies. Right now, employees are ghosting back – and potentially in higher numbers than ever before. In the same 2021 Indeed survey, 28% of workers said that they’d ghosted an employer – compared to 19% two years before.

The phenomenon seems to be happening at all stages of the recruitment process. While some employers reported that candidates cut off communications following an initial phone screening, a quarter said new hires had “no-showed” on their first day at work. Ghosting is considered bad practice for both companies and workers; no one likes being on the receiving end of it. Yet its rise seems inexorable: digital hiring processes deluge companies with candidates, making replying to everyone hard, even as labor shortages give job-hunters more options as employers scramble for talent. Is the inevitable consequence of this an increasingly discourteous recruitment process – or can steps be taken by both sides to avert a downward spiral?

Read more at the BBC


How Frontier’s


 

 

Daily Briefing – 476

Post: Mar. 15, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Headline General Business Conditions Index Falls Fifteen Points, Optimism Remains Strong

Manufacturing activity declined in New York State for the first time since mid-2020, according to the March survey. The general business conditions index dropped fifteen points to -11.8. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 35 percent reported that conditions had worsened. Firms were generally optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business conditions climbed eight points to 36.6. Longer delivery times, higher prices, and increases in employment are all expected in the months ahead, and capital spending plans remained firm.

  • The new orders index fell to -11.2.
  • The shipments index moved down to -7.4, pointing to declines in orders and shipments.
  • The unfilled orders index came in at 13.1.
  • The delivery times index climbed eleven points to 32.7, pointing to a substantial increase in delivery times.
  • The index for number of employees dropped nine points to 14.5, pointing to a modest increase in employment levels.
  • The average workweek index moved down to 3.5, indicating a slightly longer workweek.
  • The prices paid index edged down three points to 73.8
  • The prices received index rose two points to a record high of 56.1.

Read the Report at the NY Fed


PPI = 10% 

The headline Producer Price Indes was up 10% from a year ago, tying January for the biggest gain ever. The index rose 0.8% in February, slightly lower than the 0.9% Dow Jones estimate.  Wholesale gasoline prices surged more than 14%, helping feed the biggest single-month increase for final demand goods prices ever in data going back to 2009.

The data came during the week of Feb. 13, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices surged even more as the war began, and will show up in next month’s report. The numbers come with most other inflation gauges running around 40-year highs, thanks to price increases that have spread beyond volatile gas and grocery prices and across a broad spectrum of consumer goods and services.

Read more at CNBC


Oil Prices Tumble Below $100 on Ukraine Hopes, China Lockdowns

Oil prices tumbled below $100 a barrel on Tuesday, setting prices up to settle at their lowest levels since the initial days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine nearly three weeks ago, as investors reassessed the huge run-up in prices seen in recent weeks. Hopes for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine continued to weigh on oil prices Tuesday, along with COVID-19 lockdowns in China, noted Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, in a note to clients.

  • West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery fell $7.86, or 7.6%, to $95.15 a barrel. A settlement around that level would be the lowest since Feb. 25, according to FactSet Research — a day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • May Brent crude the global benchmark, fell $7.68, or 7.2% to $99.22 a barrel, on track for the weakest settlement since Feb. 25.
  • April natural gas fell 3.4% to $4.502 per million British thermal units.
  • April gasoline dropped 7.5% to $2.931 a gallon and
  • April heating -9.06% fell 8.2% to $3.008 a gallon.

Read more at MarketWatch


US COVID – Title 42 

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the US CDC issued an order under Title 42 suspending the right of certain asylum seekers to enter the US at any border crossing or port of entry in order to control the situation in congregate settings where noncitizens are processed and held. Children traveling alone were exempted from the order shortly after US President Joe Biden took office in January 2021. Over the weekend, the CDC terminated the order as it relates to unaccompanied minors after determining the “expulsion of unaccompanied noncitizen children is not warranted to protect the public health.” 

Pressure is mounting for the Biden administration to end the pandemic-related border restrictions for all noncitizen migrants.  Refugees from Ukraine are making their way to the US, and last week US Vice President Kamala Harris committed to taking in more asylum seekers from the country during an overseas trip. The same day, a Ukrainian family was barred from entering the country under Title 42. Although US immigration authorities later allowed the family to enter, the situation highlighted the relevance of the order especially with the availability of COVID-19 diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies. The CDC has the authority to lift the order, which is set to expire in early April.

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 13:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 88.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,352,894 (plus 833 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,703,092 (plus 252).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,602,959 (plus 1,705).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,491,801 (plus 355). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 6,965,121
  • In the Hudson Valley – 840,206  

The Governor updated COVID data through March 13.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,057 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,911.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 342

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.94%    –   10.57 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.71%   –   8.95 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


COVID Cases are Rising as Omicron’s ‘Stealth’ Subvariant Spreads Around the World

COVID cases have increased dramatically in the U.K. in recent weeks, while Germany continues to mark record high daily infections with more than 250,000 new cases a day. Elsewhere, France, Switzerland, Italy and the Netherlands are also seeing COVID infections start to rise again, aided and abetted by the relaxation of coronavirus measures and the spread of a new subvariant of omicron, known as BA.2.

Public health officials and scientists are closely monitoring BA.2, which has been described as a “stealth” variant because it has genetic mutations that could make it harder to distinguish from the delta variant using PCR tests, compared with the original omicron variant. Initial data show that BA.2 is a little more likely to cause infections in household contacts, when compared with BA.1. It’s not believed currently that the BA.2 variant causes more severe illness or carries an increased the risk of being hospitalized, however further research is needed to confirm this.

Read more at CNBC


Federal  Government Has Provided More Than $2B to Help Cover COVID-19 Funerals

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on Tuesday announced that over $2 billion in funding has been allotted for funeral costs of about 300,000 American families that lost a loved one since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Under the COVID-19 Funeral Assistance program, up to $9,000 in funeral expenses are covered per person. On average, about $6,500 has been given to families per death, the agency stated, according to The AP. The agency also announced on Tuesday that it is set to launch a paid ad campaign in four states that have had high rates of COVID-related deaths but low requests for funeral reimbursement. Those states include New York, Pennsylvania, Texas and California.

Read more at The Hill


McMahon: Post-Pandemic Jobs Recovery, NY Still Trails 48 States

The latest annual “benchmarking” of preliminary statistics provided a nice bump-up to the Empire State’s seasonally adjusted count of private-sector jobs, excluding the self-employed and farm payrolls, as noted here last week.

But even with that adjustment, as of January only Hawaii remained further below its February 2020 employment level.  As shown on the rollover map below, the only state to fall even within a percentage point of New York’s decline was tiny, atypical Vermont. All of New York’s other neighboring states were much further along on the road to recovery—with New Jersey in the strongest position, down just 2.2 percent from the pre-pandemic level.

Read more at the Empire Center


OFCCP Releases New Compensation Directive

Hot off the press on Equal Pay Day (the day that symbolizes how far into the year women must work to earn what men earned in the previous year) OFCCP has released a new compensation directive.  Directive 2022-01: Pay Equity Audits does little to set out how contractors should be looking at their pay systems and instead focuses on OFCCP’s review of, and right to request, the analysis.

The Directive explains, that in addition to following Directive 2018-05, “OFCCP will also look broadly at a contractor’s workforce (across job titles, levels, roles, positions, and functions) to identify patterns of segregation by race, ethnicity, and gender, which may result from assignment, placement, or upgrading/promotion barriers that drive pay disparities. Where possible, OFCCP will use regression and other systemic analyses to look for disparities in patterns of assignment or in salary paid across similar functions and positions.”

Read more at Jackson Lewis


DOJ Names Chief Prosecutor for Pandemic Fraud Task Force

The Justice Department announced on Thursday that it was tapping Associate Deputy Attorney General Kevin Chambers to lead the department’s pandemic fraud efforts.

Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the multi-agency task force last May. The task force has already moved forward with multiple cases and investigations, looking into fraud with the Paycheck Protection Program, the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program, unemployment insurance programs and other Covid health care-related fraud, the news release said.

Read more at Politico


Companies, Such as 3M, Are Moving Employees to More Critical Roles, as Automation Takes Over Certain Job Functions

High rates of retirement combined with a small pool of workers — will not change going forward, notes Jeff Burnstein, president of A3 (Association for Advancing Automation) “These factors will make it even more difficult to have a trained workforce that can help companies compete in the future,” he says. “So, automation is playing a key role in filling the gaps by moving people from doing tasks that they don’t want to do or shouldn’t be doing into needed roles.”

Employers are getting the message and in 2021, factories and other industrial users ordered 39,708 robots, which represents a 28% increase from 2020, according to data from A3. The previous annual record for robot orders was set in 2017 – when North American companies ordered 34,904 robots valued at $1.9 billion.

Read more at IndustryWeek


CO2 Emissions Reach Record Level

Global energy-related carbon emissions in 2021 reached a record level, according to the International Energy Agency. Coal accounted for over 40% of the overall growth in global CO2 emissions in 2021, reaching an all-time high of 15.3 billion tonnes. CO2 emissions from natural gas rebounded well above their 2019 levels to 7.5 billion tonnes. At 10.7 billion tonnes, CO2 emissions from oil remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels because of the limited recovery in global transport activity in 2021, mainly in the aviation sector.

Operating coal power plants in the US was considerably less costly versus of gas plants for the majority of 2021. Gas-to-coal switching pushed up global CO2 emissions from the US and Europe where competition between gas and coal power plants is tightest.

Read more at the IEA


“Windfall Profits Tax” Act Threatens Energy Producers

Coming shortly after new sanctions targeting Russian energy imports, the “Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act” would levy a new quarterly tax on large oil companies. This proposed excise tax would apply to every barrel of oil produced by large companies and would be equal to 50% of the difference between the current price of oil and the average price per barrel from 2015 to 2019. The revenue from this proposal would fund a new tax credit that would be paid to individuals on a quarterly basis.

The bill would raise taxes on oil companies and other energy producers harming their ability to do vital work and raising costs further in an essential industry.  A version of this proposal was signed into law by President Jimmy Carter and was repealed in 1988. Analysts found this tax increased America’s reliance on foreign oil and ultimately did not raise the revenues suggested by its proponents.

Read more at Forbes


How Frontier’s Merger With Spirit Will Impact the Agenda of the ‘World’s Greenest Airline’

Frontier proudly hails itself as the most carbon-efficient way to travel on boarding passes and in its messaging around its bare-bones service. One such example from the checkout page: “Keep carbon emissions low by keeping your bag weight in check. Checked bags over 40 pounds cost extra.”

But keeping the costs low are the key driving force for Frontier and Spirit Airlines, its ultra-low-cost competitor. On Feb. 7, the two airlines announced a $6.6 billion merger that is expected to close in the second half of this year, subject to regulatory review. Frontier shareholders will hold a majority stake in the combined company, whose name, logo, and branding have yet to be disclosed. What is clear is that while sustainability is an added benefit of the ultra-low-cost model, both airlines are placing greater emphasis on it as the industry faces greater scrutiny by customers and shareholders about its environmental impact.

Read more at Fortune


 

 

Daily Briefing – 475

Post: Mar. 14, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


The Inflation Hits Just Keep Coming, Raising Stakes for the Fed 

Before Moscow’s invasion three weeks ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had begun laying the groundwork for a more aggressive series of rate increases, driven by concerns that labor markets were overheating. He and his colleagues were also banking on getting an assist from recovering supply chains later this year, limiting how far rates would have to rise.  Now, the global economy faces the prospect of higher energy and commodity prices, which will raise the costs to transport and manufacture a range of goods, while the conflict further disrupts global shipping networks. The threat is unlikely to alter what the Fed does at its meeting this week. Mr. Powell said earlier this month that the central bank wants to avoid adding to volatility at a time when geopolitical uncertainty has already raised the risk of a sharp pullback in risk-taking by investors.

Powell signaled that the Fed would kick off an expected series of rate rises this week with a quarter-percentage-point increase, rather than a half-point, which a few Fed officials had floated and some investors had said would be appropriate. But he hinted that a series of shocks, including the Russian invasion, could keep inflation uncomfortably high, potentially calling for larger rate rises this summer.

Read more at the WSJ


NY Lawmakers Lay out State Budget Priorities for Housing, Child Care

State lawmakers this week are set to propose billions of dollars in spending meant to bolster struggling New Yorkers.  The budget resolutions being proposed by the Democratic-led state Senate and Assembly amount to roadmaps for lawmakers, laying down public markers for the posture they are taking with Gov. Kathy Hochul. 

Hochul last week told reporters she is not yet adjusting her own $216 billion spending plan proposed in January, but pointed to the proposals to set money aside in the state’s reserve fund to gird against a potential recession. For now, she is yet to embrace calls for reducing the state’s per-gallon gas tax. Republicans in the state Senate, meanwhile, have called for tax and spending restraint. GOP lawmakers last week called for property tax relief as well as reductions in costs for small businesses while also boosting support for manufacturing. 

Read more at State of Politics


New Wave of Inflation – and Disruptions – Hits U.S. Factory Floors

Manufacturers are struggling with order cancellations, worker attrition, supply chain disruptions and rising prices for energy and materials. “My biggest concern now is that the confluence of Ukraine and the semiconductor shortages and everything else in global logistics will become a demand constraint,” says Husco International CEO Austin Ramirez.

The current wave of disruptions come as many manufacturers felt they were starting to untangle supply chain and labor problems created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Backlogs at major U.S. ports have declined in recent weeks, for instance. And it remains too early to fully assess how much the crisis in Ukraine will slow a return to normal operations – or create new issues.

Read more at Reuters


US COVID – US Sewer Data Warns of a New Bump in COVID Cases After Lull

More than a third of the CDC’s wastewater sample sites across the U.S. showed rising COVID-19 trends in the period ending March 1 to March 10, though reported cases have stayed near a recent low. The number of sites with rising signals of COVID-19 cases is nearly twice what it was during the Feb. 1 to Feb. 10 period, when the wave of omicron-variant cases was fading rapidly.

“While wastewater levels are generally very low across the board, we are seeing an uptick of sites reporting an increase,” Amy Kirby, the head of the CDC’s wastewater monitoring program, said in an email to Bloomberg. “These bumps may simply reflect minor increases from very low levels to still low levels. Some communities, though, may be starting to see an increase in COVID-19 infections, as prevention strategies in many states have changed in recent weeks.”

Read more at the Denver Gazette


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 13:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 88.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,352,894 (plus 833 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,703,092 (plus 252).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,602,959 (plus 1,705).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,491,801 (plus 355). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 6,965,121
  • In the Hudson Valley – 840,206  

The Governor updated COVID data through March 13.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,057 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,911.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 342

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.94%    –   10.57 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.71%   –   8.95 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Moderna President Says 4th COVID-19 Shot is Only Necessary for Older and Immunocompromised

Two years into the pandemic, pharmaceutical executives are divided over whether additional COVID-19 shots are necessary for everyone. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told CBS’s “Face the Nation on Sunday that a fourth dose, or second booster shot, was indeed necessary, since a third dose doesn’t protect well against infections and immunity wanes quickly. COVID-19 vaccines still offer strong protection against hospitalization and death.

But Moderna President Stephen Hoge told Insider on Monday that people can be more selective about boosters from now on. “For those who are immune-compromised, those who are older adults, over the age of 50 or at least 65, we want to strongly recommend and encourage [a fourth shot], the same way we do with flu vaccines,” he said.

Read more at Business Insider


China Locks Down a City of 9 Million Amid a New Spike in COVID-19 Cases

China on Friday ordered a lockdown of the 9 million residents of the northeastern city of Changchun amid a new spike in COVID-19 cases in the area attributed to the highly contagious omicron variant. Residents are required to remain home, with one family member permitted to venture out to buy food and other necessities every two days. All residents must undergo three rounds of mass testing, while non-essential businesses have been closed and transport links suspended.

The latest lockdowns, which also include Yucheng with 500,000 people in the eastern province of Shandong, show China is sticking to the draconian approach to the pandemic it has enforced for most of the past two years, despite some earlier indications that authorities would be implementing more targeted measures.

Read more at NPR


U.S. Chamber of Commerce Urges Focus on Energy and Food to Combat Historic Inflation

In response to the new CPI numbers, Neil Bradley, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the following in a statement he released yesterday:

“We urge policymakers to focus on three key areas that have a large impact on family budgets and the overall economy: energy, food, and housing. It’s time now for the administration to partner with domestic energy producers to remove regulatory red tape and make it easier to produce more oil and gas here in America. Congress and the administration should act now to support American farmers in increasing production, to help offset what will be lost in Ukraine and Russia, including by dealing with rising energy costs and potential fertilizer shortages.” 

Read the Statement


More COVID Supply Chain Risk

COVID restrictions have come to an end in many parts of the world as governments establish “live with the virus” policies, but one nation stands out in this regard: China. The country has continued to pursue a “zero-COVID” strategy, imposing strict lockdowns and containment measures to prevent viral transmission among its population. However, a growing wave of local cases is seeing authorities double down on the policy and that’s getting investors nervous about the economy.

China just placed the 17.5M residents of Shenzhen into lockdown for at least a week, which will be accompanied by three rounds of city-wide testing. All bus and subway systems were closed, while businesses, barring those that provide essential services, have been shuttered. The decision resulted in Foxconn, a key Apple supplier, to halt production as the virus spreads across the technology hub. Shenzhen also features the headquarters of tech giants Huawei, Tencent and EV maker BYD. Similar measures are impacting Hong Kong, Shanghai and other regions as a spike in coronavirus infections leads to a worsening outbreak. 

Read more at Seeking Alpha


War in Ukraine is Ravaging the World’s Wheat Supplies

On Monday Russia released data on its latest wheat export volumes. They are not cause for alarm: wheat is usually harvested in the summer, and by February most ships are gone. But the future is more worrying. Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports. In Ukraine the crop may not be planted at all this year; Russia’s ostracism means few will want to take the financial and reputational risk of buying its grain. Both have banned wheat exports anyway.

Yet Russia and Ukraine are the prime breadbasket for about 800m people in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The warring countries are also among the top five exporters of many other staples, from barley to sunflowers. Altogether their food exports account for 12% of globally-traded calories. Russia and Belarus, which is also under sanctions, are major suppliers of critical ingredients for fertilizers. However the war ends, it will cause people to go hungry.

Read more at the WSJ


Nickel Price Surge Puts Chinese Manufacturers in a Bind

The unprecedented surge in nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange has disrupted the operations of producers and manufacturers in China that make nickel-related products, showing how the trading fiasco is reverberating across the supply chain for the widely used material.

The sharp increase in prices—which were partly caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—is impacting companies far and wide. In Australia, a base-metals producer said Monday that its planned $800 million purchase of a nickel miner could be delayed because of the huge nickel price move.

Read more at the WSJ


NIH Launches Clinical Trial of Three mRNA HIV Vaccines

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, has launched a Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating three experimental HIV vaccines based on a messenger RNA (mRNA) platform—a technology used in several approved COVID-19 vaccines. 

The HVTN 302 study will examine whether the following three experimental HIV mRNA vaccines are safe and can induce an immune response. Each investigational vaccine candidate is designed to present the spike protein found on the surface of HIV that facilitates entry into human cells. Each of the experimental vaccines encodes for different but highly related, stabilized proteins. None of the three vaccine candidates can cause HIV infection.

Read more at NIH


Pratt & Whitney Digitalizing F119 Engine Monitoring

Pratt & Whitney has started a new maintenance program it calls a “first… in aerospace propulsion history”, for F119 engines powering U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft. The new approach is based on digitally combining flight data with engineering algorithms to plan engine maintenance on an as-needed basis. The engine builder indicated this “usage-based lifing” (UBL) program could save the USAF more than $800 million over the life of the program.

By incorporating UBL techniques, the USAF and Pratt & Whitney will plan maintenance based on large amounts of real-time data on engine components based on how it is actually being flown, versus an assumed mission mix. This constant flow of data will be re-analyzed continuously and will allow the USAF to take advantage of the full life of the engine – improving readiness and reducing maintenance time and costs.

Read more at American Machinist


Bantam Tools Desktop CNC 4th Axis Accessory

Expanding the abilities of the compatible Bantam Tools Desktop CNC Milling Machine, the Bantam Tools Desktop CNC 4th Axis Accessory enables users to machine parts with more complex geometries. The accessory allows users to turn their 3-axis CNC machine into a 4-axis machine quickly and easily.

With a beginner-friendly design, users are able to level up their machining skills. It reducecs machining complexity with parts that require machining on multiple sides, and it offers more machining options for 3D surfacing.

Read more at New Equipment.com


 

 

Daily Briefing – 474

Post: Mar. 13, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Fed Open Markets Committee Meets This Week – Quarter Point Hike Expected

The policy-making committee of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet March 15-16 to a large expectation that a 25-point rate increase will be announced. Ahead of the meeting, Moody’s maintained an assumption that the Federal Reserve raises the target range for the fed funds rate four times this year at 25 basis points a clip. Markets, however,  are pricing in even more hikes, just short of seven hikes over the next 12 months.

Per Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress last week, the FOMC appears to be closing in on a plan for balance sheet runoff. UBS says the Fed wants a process that is fast, but controlled, and does not risk market stress. “We think the median projection for 2022 will be revised from three hikes in December, to six or seven in March. By the end of 2024 we expect the median assumption for the federal funds rate will be around 3.0% to reflect a ‘whatever it takes attitude’ in taking inflation down.

Read more at CNBC


Five Things to Know About the $1.5T Spending Bill Congress Passed 

Congress finally passed a sweeping $1.5 trillion spending omnibus package this week, capping off months of bruising negotiations and partisan fights over how to fund the government through fiscal year 2022.   The massive spending plan now heads to President Biden’s desk, where it’s expected to be signed into law next week.  

There is a lot in the 2,000 plus pages of the bill that  President Biden is expected to sign into law, and the spending plan should have been in place for the start of the federal government’s fiscal year back on October 1st. Here are how five key spending battles ended up playing out in the sprawling package. 

Read more at The Hill


The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell to 59.7 From 62.8

Most of the dip in the headline is due to a 5.0-point drop in the expectations component, to its lowest level since October 2011, when confidence was depressed by the debt ceiling debacle. Expectations are sensitive to both the state of the stock market and gas prices. The jump in gas prices pushed up near-term inflation expectations too, by 0.4% to 5.4%, the highest since November 1981, but well below the current headline CPI inflation rate, 7.9%. Expectations for inflation in five-to-10 years were unchanged at 3.0%, which will be more comforting to the Fed.

Sentiment and spending are not the same thing, and the chance of a significant divergence now is greater than in the past, because households have $2.5T in excess pandemic savings, far more than the amount needed to pay for more expensive gas. Note too that the Michigan sentiment index is much weaker than the Conference Board measure, for reasons which are not clear.

Read more at Reuters


US COVID – 2 Years on: Taking Stock and Preparing for What Comes Next

Two years ago on March 11th, the World Health Organization declared covid-19 a pandemic. Americans are eager to leave the wretchedness behind them. Polls suggest concern about COVID is declining. Mask-wearing has waned (a maskless President Joe Biden hobnobbed insouciantly with members of Congress after his state-of-the-union message last week). On March 26th, Hawaii will become the final state to drop its indoor mask mandate, and the CDC now recommends masks only for the 7% of Americans living in high-risk counties.

Public-health officials are urging the government to prepare for the next wave. “This is a lull. A moment to prepare so we are never caught again,” says Megan Ranney, a physician and dean at Brown University’s School of Public Health.

Read more at The Economist


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of March 13:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.3% of all New Yorkers – 16,429,615 (plus 2,357 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,708,200 (plus 232).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.8% of all New Yorkers – 14,710,204 (plus 3,664).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,498,583 (plus 262). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,220,268
  • In the Hudson Valley – 858,824  

The Governor updated COVID data through March 13.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,689 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,052.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 174

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.41%    –   8.33 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.41%   –   7.40 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Two Years On, Coronavirus Evolution Still Surprises Experts

On March 11, 2020—exactly two years ago—the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. The disease has since infected nearly 500 million people in almost 200 countries and killed more than six million people worldwide, and it’s not over yet. Along the way, this coronavirus has presented scientists with a bevy of surprises: Many experts are still amazed by how quickly the virus evolves, what it does to the human body, and how it moves in and out of other species.

Two years in, there’s still a lot we don’t know about SARS-CoV-2, says David Wohl, an infectious disease specialist at the University of North Carolina. Here’s what scientists have uncovered so far—and the mysteries that continue to tantalize and frustrate coronavirus experts.

Read more at Nat Geo


Updated Guidance on Religious Accommodations to COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates

On March 1, 2022, the EEOC updated its guidance on religious accommodations to COVID-19 vaccine mandates. While the guidance states that job applicants and employees have a right to request a religious accommodation from an employer’s COVID-19 vaccination requirement under Title VII, the new guidance answers many questions specific to COVID-19 vaccination requirements and specifically addresses how employers should evaluate an employee’s religious objection to the vaccine.

Read more at Bond Schoeneck & King


Can the World Cope Without Russia’s Huge Commodity Stash?

So far its exports of raw materials have been spared the kind of comprehensive bans the West has imposed on other sectors. America announced an embargo on Russian oil on March 8th, but it buys little of the stuff; Britain will phase out purchases this year. However, growing signs the West could go further have shocked commodities markets. 

A core-commodity index compiled by Thomson Reuters has risen by more than in any period since 1973, on a three-month basis. In the week ending March 4th it showed its biggest increase since at least 1956. Beyond trading floors, hysteria is not yet visible. The calm is unlikely to last. “Right now prices are prints on a screen. In four weeks they become reality,” says a trader. If tensions rise further, energy and metals may have to be rationed. Private firms and personal lives will have to painfully adjust. The rich world would sputter. Poor countries could go bust. In the end Russia may buckle—but not before the broken chain snaps back at the rest of the world with huge violence.

Read more at The Economist


Bipartisan Calls Made for Action on New York’s Gas Tax

On Wednesday, lawmakers unveiled still more proposals on how to address the cost of gas amid supply chain problems brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker proposed a bill with Sen. Fred Akshar that would suspend the gas tax through Sept. 1. Future funds from the tax would be sent to aid infrastructure improvements. Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, proposed an alternative solution: Cap the sales tax on gasoline at 25 cents per gallon, based on the average price paid of $3.09 in 2021. The proposal was made by Sen. John Mannion and Assemblywoman Pamela Hunter. 

Read more at State of Politics


Study: Majority of Workers Who Quit a Job in 2021 Cite Low Pay, No Opportunities for Advancement

Some interesting survey data on the “Great Resignation” from the Pew Research Center. We know from government statistics that the U.S. quit rate is at a record highs⁠—with at least 4 million people leaving their jobs in each month since July 2021. But why are they leaving? Below are the top five reasons, according to Pew:

  1. It is about money. 37% of those surveyed gave “pay was too low” as a “major reason” they left, and 26% more said it was a “minor reason.”
  2. Opportunity for advancement was cited by 33% as a major reason and 30% as a minor reason.
  3. Respect.  Feeling “disrespected at work” was a major reason for 35%, and a minor reason for 21%.
  4.  Childcare issues. That was a major issue for 24%, and a minor issue for 24%.
  5. Not enough flexibility to choose when to put in working hours. A major issue for 24%, and a minor issue for 21%.

Read more at Pew


Biden Administration Extends Travel Mask Mandate through April 18

The Biden administration will extend its travel mask mandate through mid-April as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention crafts new guidance for masking on transportation services.

An administration official told POLITICO on Thursday that the Transportation Security Administration directive — set to expire this month — will stay in effect through April 18 so the CDC can “work with government agencies to help inform a revised policy framework for when, and under what circumstances, masks should be required in the public transportation corridor.”

Read more at Politico


Frontier to Serve Two More Cities from Stewart

Frontier Airlines has announced the launch of nonstop service between New York Stewart International Airport and Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham. The airline, known for low fares, said that tickets will be as low as $39.  Frontier currently operates flights to Orlando, Tampa and Fort Lauderdale from Newburgh.

The service to Atlanta, Georgia is scheduled to take off three times per week beginning on May 26. North Carolina’s “Research Triangle” will be accessed through twice-weekly flights between Stewart and Raleigh-Durham International Airport, also beginning on May 26.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News


Starting Salary for Some Graduates Is $100,000

Some college seniors who walk across the stage to collect their diplomas this spring will soon strut into six-figure starting salaries at big tech, finance and consulting firms. Not everybody is happy about it.

As wage inflation hits campuses during a roaring economic recovery and tight labor market, the next cohort of frosh workers may be greeted by grouchy colleagues—some just a few years older—who are jealous and concerned. Some say new hires who don’t know what it is like to make less than $100,000 could be entitled, or out of touch with those of more modest means.

Read more at the WSJ


To Find More Truck Drivers, DOL Expands Registered Apprenticeships

The U.S. Department of Labor on March 9 announced its partnership with the Trucking Alliance to join the administration’s 90-Day Trucking Apprenticeship Challenge.  The aim of the partnership is to expand Registered Apprenticeship programs in the trucking industry. The partnership’s focus on expanding these programs will enhance industry training and safety standards and improve job quality to recruit and retain truck drivers.

“The Trucking Alliance is committed to making improvements in training and safety standards for truck drivers a priority and keep our supply chain moving responsibly,” said Maverick USA’s CEO Steve Williams, who serves as the Trucking Alliance’s president.  The department is placing a high level of importance on expanding RA in the trucking industry to build a sustainable pipeline of drivers with access to fair wages while learning skills, high job quality, and enhanced safety and training standards.

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics


The End of the Great Resignation? Tom Brady Announces That He Is Coming Out of Retirement

Legendary quarterback, Tom Brady took to Twitter to announce his return to the Buccaneers for a third season, and his 23rd NFL season overall. “These past two months I’ve realized my place is still on the field and not in the stands. That time will come. But it’s not now. I love my teammates, and I love my supportive family. They make it all possible. I’m coming back for my 23rd season in Tampa. Unfinished business LFG.”

Perhaps he’ll inspire others to return to the workforce.

Read more at Sports Illustrated


 

Daily Briefing – 473

Post: Mar. 9, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


Lawmakers Reach $1.5T Deal on Government Funding Package

The legislation includes what Democrats have lauded as the biggest increase to nondefense discretionary spending in four years. The GOP has also touted a $42 billion increase for defense spending in the package, saying the deal achieves dollar-for-dollar parity for defense and nondefense increases. The bill also will include about $14 billion in emergency funding to boost humanitarian, security and economic assistance for Ukraine and central European allies.

The House is expected to take action on the legislation on Wednesday. Under a short-term continuing resolution (CR) passed last month, lawmakers have until Mar. 11 to pass a government funding bill or risk a shutdown.

Read more at The Hill


Job Openings Hold Above 11 million, Quits Decline Slightly

Total vacancies actually dipped a bit, falling to 11.26 million following a substantial upward adjustment in December’s numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed. That still left job postings 4.75 million above the total counted as unemployed for the month.

Along with the slight decline in openings came a decrease in quits, or workers voluntarily leaving their jobs. Quits declining to 4.25 million, a drop of 3.4% and the lowest number since October. As a share of the labor force, the quits rate declined to 2.8% from 3% the previous two months.

Read more at CNBC


109K Job Openings in Manufacturing

Manufacturing saw a big gain in job openings, rising by 109,000 and taking the openings rate by by 0.8 percentage point. The durable goods manufacturing industry reported 85,000 more job openings. Non-durable goods openings rose by 25,000. The sector saw a total of 42,000 more quits in January (a total of 476,000) 22,000 of those were in the durable goods sector and 20,000 in non durable goods. 

In January, vacancies fell in several industries, with accommodation and food services reporting a 288,000 drop. In the transportation, warehousing, and utilities industry, job openings fell 132,000, while unfilled positions in the federal government decreased 60,000. But job openings increased 136,000 in other services businesses.  

Read more at the BLS


US COVID – Kids and Vaccines

Children under age 5 in the US remain ineligible for vaccination against COVID-19, and a series of ups and downs regarding expected authorization for this age group has left some parents feeling abandoned, frustrated, and fearful as mask mandates and other restrictions are dropped. Additional data on a 3-dose regimen of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in young children is expected this spring, and Moderna is expected to request authorization for its vaccine among young children by May.

In Florida, the state’s surgeon general on March 7 announced that the state will issue guidance recommending parents to not vaccinate their healthy children against COVID-19. Although Florida’s decision will have little impact on parents’ abilities to vaccinate their children, the recommendation breaks with US CDC guidance. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of February 27:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 88.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,352,894 (plus 833 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,703,092 (plus 252).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,602,959 (plus 1,705).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,491,801 (plus 355). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 6,965,121
  • In the Hudson Valley – 840,206  

The Governor updated COVID data through February 27.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,057 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,911.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 342

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.94%    –   10.57 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.71%   –   8.95 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Pfizer Launches Trial to Test COVID Pill in Children

Pfizer announced Wednesday that it has started a clinical trial testing its Covid-19 antiviral pill in children as young as 6. The drugmaker said it aims to enroll approximately 140 participants in the trial, which will look at whether the drug, called Paxlovid, can safely treat Covid in children who are at risk of becoming severely ill.

Data from Pfizer’s trial in adults found the treatment to be 89 percent effective at preventing high-risk people from being hospitalized or dying from Covid.

Read more at NBC News


World Bank Official Says War-Driven Oil Price Hikes to Slash Growth for Big Importers

Persistent high oil prices prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could cut a full percentage point off the growth off large oil-importing developing economies like China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, a World Bank official said on Tuesday.

Indermit Gill, the bank’s Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, said in a blog posting that the war will deal further setbacks to growth for emerging markets already lagging in recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and struggling with a range of uncertainties from debt to inflation.

Read more at Reuters


OSHA Hikes Penalty Amounts

In January, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) announced a 5% increase in the civil penalties assessed for violations of its regulations, but worse may yet come if certain legislative reforms are adopted by Congress.

As of Jan. 13, the maximum penalty for willful or repeated violations rose to $145,027, a nearly $10,000 increase from the 2021 maximum for the same violations. The maximum penalty for failure-to-abate violations increased to $14,502 for each day after the abatement deadline where no abatement has taken place. The maximum penalty allowed for serious, other-than-serious, and posting requirements violations is now $14,502, representing an increase of nearly $1,000 above the maximum amounts that had been adopted last year.

Read more at EHS Today


Food Crisis Grows as Spiraling Prices Spark Export Bans

A global food crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalated on Wednesday as Indonesia tightened curbs on palm oil exports, adding to a growing list of key producing countries seeking to keep vital food supplies within their borders. The conflict in Ukraine is threatening global grain production, the supply of edible oils and fertilizer exports, sending basic commodity prices rocketing and mirroring the crisis in energy markets.

World food prices rose to a record high in February to post a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, according to the United Nations food agency, while many markets have continued to climb this month. Chicago wheat futures have climbed around 60% so far this year, threatening to raise the cost of key food staples such as bread.

Read more at Reuters


Here’s How Americans Think Employers Have Done on the Pandemic

According to a new survey by Willis Towers Watson, 70% of 9,600 U.S. workers from large and mid-size employers said their organizations have supported them during the pandemic. Specifically, a majority of employees said their employers have helped them stay productive (67%) and safe from COVID-19 (66%). More than half (58%) believe their employer has supported their wellbeing.

Employees differed when it comes to their views of on-site safety requirements. The majority (58%) support employer vaccinate mandates, and even more favor wearing a mask inside buildings (65%). More than half (54%) support regular COVID testing to enter the worksite.

Read more at HR Executive


Kremlin Will Respond to United States’ “Economic War”

The Kremlin accused the United States on Wednesday of declaring an economic war on Russia that was sowing mayhem through energy markets, and put Washington on notice it was considering its response to a ban on Russian oil and energy. The West’s attempt to cut off Russia – one of the world’s biggest exporters of oil, gas and metals – has hit commodity markets and raised the spectre of spiraling inflation across the world.

President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s paramount leader since 1999, will hold a meeting with the government on Thursday to discuss minimising the impact of sanctions, the Kremlin said.

Read more at Reuters


Biden Orders First Sweeping Review of Federal Policy on Crypto

President Joe Biden on Wednesday will direct federal agencies to produce a series of reports over the coming months that will lay out the future of U.S. policy toward digital assets — including the possible launch of a federally issued digital dollar.

The wide-ranging order will kick off a process to examine the impact that rapidly evolving digital asset markets will have on consumer and investor protections, as well as on financial stability and even the climate.

Read more at Politico


EIA Inventory Report – U.S. Crude Inventory Higher than Estimates

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending March 4, 2022 which was 21,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 89.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.6 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 10.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 760,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 274,000 barrels per day.

Read more at EIA


Ukraine War Tests Cyber Insurance Exclusions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will put significant pressure on the global cyber insurance market as malicious attacks by state-linked threat actors create risk for multinational companies, critical infrastructure providers and government targets with data loss and business disruption.

Fitch Ratings said the Ukraine conflict will test the effectiveness of “war exclusion” and “hostile act exclusion” language. Contract language is under additional scrutiny following a recent court ruling in favor of Merck. The pharmaceutical giant won a major victory regarding $1.4 billion in cyber insurance claims stemming from the 2017 NotPetya attacks. 

Read more at Cybersecurity Dive


China’s 5.5% Growth Target Is a Big Reach

By the standards of China’s rip-roaring economic growth over the past 30 years, “around 5.5%”—the official target for 2022, released over the weekend—is positively leisurely. By the standards of 2022, it will be a heavy lift: Fourth-quarter growth in 2021 was just 4% year over year and the nation is still confronting a stark property slowdown and headwinds to consumption from China’s “zero-Covid” policy, which mandates tough containment measures for even limited outbreaks.

Now, new threats are arising: Rapidly rising Brent crude oil prices, now above $120 a barrel, and a likely further slowdown in global growth and trade due to the conflict in Ukraine. China’s enormous trade surpluses, which already were expected to decline this year as developed economies further reopen and shift consumption back toward services, will come under more pressure.

Read more at the WSJ


 

Daily Briefing – 472

Post: Mar. 8, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


US Trade Deficit Hits New Record in January as Exports Fall

The trade deficit in the world’s largest economy increased by 9.4% compared to December to a record $89.7 billion, the Commerce Department reported. Exports fell 1.7% to $224.4 billion while imports rose to $314.1 billion, the report said. Imports of autos, parts and engines jumped $1.6 billion, while purchases of crude oil and natural gas rose $1.5 billion, but key semiconductors, needed for everything from cars to cell phones, fell $600 million compared to December.

U.S. firms have been trying to replenish depleted inventories and bring in parts and materials that have proved hard to find due to the pandemic disruptions that have snarled global supply chains.

Read More at IndustryWeek


Congress to Spend $15B on COVID

Congress is planning to give the Biden administration $15.6 billion to continue the fight against Covid-19, less than half of what federal agencies originally said would be needed. Top Democratic and Republican lawmakers say the 2022 spending bill they aim to pass this week to avoid a government shutdown includes $10.6 billion for domestic efforts such as testing, therapeutics and vaccinations, and $5 billion for global pandemic efforts.

Just last week, the White House had argued that they needed at least $22.5 billion just for their immediate needs, already a reduced number from the more than $30 billion they originally requested. The Office of Management and Budget did not respond to a request for comment.

Read more at Politico


Labor Crunch, Inflation Drive NFIB Index of Small Business Sentiment Lower

The NFIB index of small business sentiment and activity fell to 95.7 from 97.21, below the consensus, 97.3. The dip in the headline index to a 13-month low is largely due to the dip in stock prices, even before the hit from the invasion of Ukraine. The NFIB index is extremely sensitive to the S&P 500, which exerts huge influence on the expectations components. The headline NFIB index therefore is very likely to drop again in March.

The details show that the labor market remains very tight, though it seems no longer to be tightening, and the proportion of NFIB members who say that finding labor is their biggest problem has dropped from a peak of 29% in November to 22% in February, the lowest reading since January 2021. The rising trend in labor participation is making recruitment easier, at the margin, and it appears to be capping the increase in wage growth too.

Read more at NFIB


Will Inflation Fall? Any Pullback Depends on These Sectors

How does inflation swing from 7.5% to around half that in just 11 months? Normally, the main driver of inflation is the economy itself: the degree of economic slack, and the overall balance of supply and demand.  There are always outliers because of temporary events, such as an interruption to oil supplies. But these usually resolve on their own and don’t tell you much about where inflation will be in a year. So economists seldom try to predict price movements for discrete goods and services.

“I’m a macroeconomist by training that believes, yeah, maybe for a month or two, you do disaggregated,” Alan Detmeister, economist at UBS said. “But right now is a special time—you have so many of these special stories hitting.” Standard models that predict inflation based on unemployment and economic slack would at best explain inflation of as much as 3.5%, he said. Those models missed the inflation surge and for the same reasons, are likely to miss the reversal, said Mr. Detmeister, who expects inflation to fall to 2.7% in December 2022.

Read more at the WSJ


US COVID – COVID-19 Can Cause Brain Shrinkage, Memory Loss 

COVID-19 can cause the brain to shrink, reduce grey matter in the regions that control emotion and memory, and damage areas that control the sense of smell, an Oxford University study has found. The scientists said that the effects were even seen in people who had not been hospitalised with COVID, and whether the impact could be partially reversed or if they would persist in the long term needed further investigation.

Read more at Reuters


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of February 27:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 88.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,352,894 (plus 833 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,703,092 (plus 252).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,602,959 (plus 1,705).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,491,801 (plus 355). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 6,965,121
  • In the Hudson Valley – 840,206  

The Governor updated COVID data through February 27.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,057 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,911.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 342

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.94%    –   10.57 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.71%   –   8.95 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Moderna Signals It May Enforce Covid-19 Vaccine Patents in Wealthy Nations

Moderna Inc. said it will never use its Covid-19 vaccine-related patents to stop others from manufacturing its vaccine in more than 90 low- and middle-income countries, but signaled it was prepared to begin enforcing patents in wealthier countries.

The drugmaker said Monday it now expects anyone in higher-income countries that want to use its patented technologies to respect the company’s intellectual property. It also said it is willing to license its patents to others in those countries on “commercially reasonable terms.”

Read more at the WSJ


Russia Threatens to Shut Off the Gas to Europe

The energy markets are roiling again  after Russia on Monday threatened to halt the flow of gas to the European Union via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. That’s no small threat—roughly 40% of the EU’s gas comes from Russia, and any disruption risks sending inflation higher throughout the euro zone. On cue, natural gas prices hit a record-high overnight. The silver lining: Europe says it’s determined to wean itself off Russian gas imports by 80% this year. Here are four steps Europe could take to begin that process.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) set out how the EU can do just that in 10-point plan for reducing Russian gas imports by half within a year. Here are four of the top recommendations:

Read more at Fortune


State and Local Officials Urge Gas Tax Suspension

Area officials joined with State Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R, New Windsor) on Monday to call on the government to ease the sales tax on gasoline as prices spiral out of control. “That bill, if signed into law today would immediately reduce these prices by at least 20- cents a gallon by suspending for the next two years the four percent state sales tax and up to four- to 4 ½ percent local sales tax that’s imposed on gasoline,” he said.

What can we expect in the coming months? The average gas price in the US, which was $2.76 a gallon one year ago, is now at $4.01, up 47 cents since before Russia invaded Ukraine 11 days ago and is already nearly $4.50 at many Orange County gas stations. Residents are bracing for the real possibility in the next month or two when filling their vehicles might cost $5.00/gallon.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News


Understanding Why People Keep Quitting Their Jobs

Manufacturing leaders consistently tell our team at IndustryWeek that attracting labor remains the biggest challenge in today’s market. So, I’ve been spending a lot of time looking at U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, trying to make sense of the chaos.

One lesson from the pandemic: men like their kids, too.  Work-life balance has long been stereotyped as a women’s issue. If that ever was true, it isn’t any more. Stevenson says men appreciated family time during lockdowns and don’t want to give that up to spend more time in the factory.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Supreme Court Denies Injunction in Challenge of New York City’s Public School COVID-19 Vaccination Mandate

The Supreme Court denied an injunction Monday in the challenge of New York City’s COVID-19 vaccination mandate for public school employees. The injunction would have restricted New York City from requiring public school employees to be vaccinated. The news comes on the same day masks are now optional for public school children in grades kindergarten and above in New York City.

A group of four public school teachers and staff first asked Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who assesses emergency appeals from the region that includes New York City, to consider their emergency request to block the mandate due to their religious objections in September. The Bronx-born federal trial court judge denied the request and did not refer the case to the full court. However, after their first attempt, the teachers sent a new request to conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch, who did refer it to the full court.

Read more at NY1


LME Suspends Nickel Trading, Cancels Trades, After Prices Double to Over $100,000

The London Metal Exchange (LME) in an unprecedented move halted nickel trading and cancelled all trades on Tuesday as a race to cover short positions saw prices double in just hours to record highs above $100,000 per tonne.  The trading shutdown after Western sanctions threatened supply from major producer Russia is the biggest crisis to hit the 145-year-old exchange in decades. One reason the LME took action is because some position holders have been struggling to pay margin calls, traders said.

The move underscores the market panic created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with buyers scrambling for the metal crucial for making stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. “The current events are unprecedented,” the LME said in a notice to members. “The suspension of the nickel market has created a number of issues for market participants which need to be addressed.”

Read more at Reuters


3 Ways to Help Employees Affected by Global Events

How do we manage our teams when a global, geopolitical crisis weighs heavily on our minds? There are atrocities happening throughout the world nearly every day. Unless something has affected us or someone on our team personally, we don’t normally start our morning staff meeting with a moment of silence. But when a singular event captures our collective global attention, how do we as leaders and managers address it?

When you are in a position of authority, your words have special weight and you can use them to either foster anxiety or create a supportive culture. But it can be hard to know what to do or what to say. If you’re finding yourself at a loss, start with these three simple steps.

Read more at HBR


New Enrollment Data: Fewer Voters, Democratic Gains in Hudson Valley

The figures released Monday shows there were 11.9 million registered voters in New York as of Feb. 21. That’s down from 12.4 million a year ago, continuing a long-standing trend in which the voter rolls decrease due to attrition in the aftermath of a presidential-year surge. The data Monday showed there were 5.93 million Democrats, making up 49.8 percent of the rolls. There were 2.65 million Republicans (22.2 percent of total registered voters).

There were 16 counties in which the total number of Democrats has increased by more than 10 percent in the past four years. And the vast majority of them either bordered or were near the Hudson Valley, with the biggest gains in Columbia (26 percent), Greene (22.3 percent), Saratoga (21.8 percent) and Ulster (17.8 percent) counties.


Alphabet’s Google to Buy Mandiant in $5.4 Billion Deal

Google lined up its largest acquisition in more than a decade on Tuesday, striking a deal to pay $5.4 billion in cash for Mandiant, a cybersecurity company that specializes in tracking the activities of hackers and cyber spies. It might be best known for uncovering the SolarWinds hack in 2020.

The rise of cloud computing—accelerated by the shift to remote work during the pandemic—has transformed the way many companies think about protecting themselves, driving a surge of cybersecurity spending. More recently, the war in Ukraine has intensified concern about potentially imminent threats.

Read more at Forbes


Automakers


 

Daily Briefing – 471

Post: Mar. 7, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set the stage for faster-rising consumer prices, with the mayhem of war driving up manufacturing costs for food, consumer goods and machinery in places far from the battlefield. The short-term consequences have been serious. Grain markets recently hit a 14-year high in anticipation of a diminished harvest in Ukraine, which would raise costs to feed the world’s cattle and poultry. Aluminum prices rose in anticipation of sanctions on Russia. Crude oil prices rose 25% last week, to more than $118 a barrel. Gas prices have gone up an average of 43.7 cents a gallon in the U.S.

Some analysts and company officials caution that it is too early to know exactly what the long-term effects of the war will have on the global economy, and not all think the conflict in Ukraine will have a major impact on supply chains. But the invasion of Ukraine has already slowed the journey of goods traveling by various means. Many Western shipping companies are steering clear of Russian ports and many air cargo flights are either banned from or are avoiding Russian airspace, a key route for goods moving between Europe and Asia. Shipping and airfreight rates have moved higher.

Read more at the WSJ


Congress Races Shutdown Clock Amid Ukraine Crisis

Democratic leaders have announced plans to attach supplemental funding for humanitarian and military assistance for Ukraine to a larger spending omnibus package to fund the government through the rest of the fiscal year, calling it the quickest vehicle to greenlight the billions in spending. Congress has to pass a sweeping bill, which would fund the government through the end of September, and President Biden has to sign it before the end of Friday in order to prevent a government shutdown. 

The push, lawmakers say, tacks even more pressure on Congress to wrap up work on government funding legislation in time for a March 11 deadline, after the cutoff date was previously pushed back several times to buy negotiators more time for spending talks.

Read more at The Hill


Today is International Women’s Day

Imagine a gender equal world. A world free of bias, stereotypes and discrimination. A world that’s diverse, equitable, and inclusive. A world where difference is valued and celebrated. 

International Women’s Day (March 8) is a global day celebrating the social, economic, cultural, and political achievements of women. The day also marks a call to action for accelerating women’s equality. IWD has occurred for well over a century, with the first IWD gathering in 1911 supported by over a million people. Today, IWD belongs to all groups collectively everywhere. IWD is not country, group or organization specific.


US COVID – Leading Causes of Death (Daily Average) in the U.S. March 2020-January 2022

This statistic from Statista shows the average number of daily deaths in the United States among the leading causes of death from March 2020 to December 2021 and to January 2022 for COVID-19 deaths.

During the months December 2020, January 2021, and February 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States based on the average number of daily deaths. Heart disease and cancer are usually the number one and number two leading causes of death, respectively. As of December 2021, same as in the two months prior, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the U.S. In January 2022, COVID-19 deaths increased and appeared to be the second leading cause of death in the U.S. 

See the chart at Statista


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update –

Vaccine Stats as of February 27:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 88.9% of all New Yorkers – 16,352,894 (plus 833 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,703,092 (plus 252).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.5% of all New Yorkers – 14,602,959 (plus 1,705).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,491,801 (plus 355). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 6,965,121
  • In the Hudson Valley – 840,206  

The Governor updated COVID data through February 27.  There were 20 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,057 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,911.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 342

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.94%    –   10.57 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.71%   –   8.95 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Public Health Experts Sketch a Roadmap to Get from the Covid Pandemic to the ‘Next Normal’

A new report released Monday charts a path for the transition out of the Covid-19 pandemic, one that outlines both how the country can deal with the challenge of endemic Covid disease and how to prepare for future biosecurity threats. The report plots a course to what its authors call the “next normal” — living with the SARS-CoV-2 virus as a continuing threat that needs to be managed.

Doing so will require improvements on a number of fronts, from better surveillance for COVID and other pathogens to keeping tabs on how taxed hospitals are; and from efforts to address the air quality in buildings to continued investment in antiviral drugs and better vaccines. The authors also call for offering people sick with respiratory symptoms easy access to testing and, if they are positive for Covid or influenza, a quick prescription for the relevant antiviral drug.

Read more at The Hill


Businesses Respond to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine – A Summary

Some of their actions have been in compliance with, or anticipation of, government sanctions. But others go well beyond what’s required. Here’s a partial list:

  • Major oil companies, including Exxon, BP, and Shell, have ended multiple joint investment projects with Russian oil companies.
  •  Major retailers, including H&M, Nike, IKEA and TJX, have shut down Russian sales and closed stores.
  • Visa, Mastercard and American Express shut down global services in Russia.
  • Accenture closed its Russian offices and EY, KPMG and PwC are also cutting ties with their Russian member firms.
  • Boeing cut off support for Russian airlines, and closed its offices in Moscow, while Delta ended its Russian code-sharing arrangement.
  • Airbnb is freeing up housing for 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.
  • FedEx and UPS shut services to Russia.
  • Apple, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft all have taken significant action to combat Russian aggression and disinformation.

Read more at Just Capital


Does the War in Ukraine Increase the Risk of Russian Cyberattacks?

In January, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a CISA alert, co-written with the Federal Bureau of Investigation and National Security Agency, reiterating the ongoing threat of Russian state-sponsored cybercrime on American infrastructure. Analysts cited the tension on the Russian/Ukrainian border as motivation for increased awareness. When tensions on the border erupted into all-out war, did cybersecurity experts see a commensurate increase in Russian cyberattacks?

“Attribution is the hardest part of cybersecurity. While we can take very secure guesses about who is carrying out an attack based on their sophistication and specific characteristics about the attack, it is usually very hard to provide definitive evidence to tie an attack to a specific country,” Cloutier says. “Russia, like China and North Korea, has a sophisticated cyber intelligence community and can carry out attacks that are much more complex than other nations, and given the nature of the sanctions being doled out by Western countries, we expect to see attacks from Russia propagate.”

Read more at IndustryWeek


Biden Appointees Split on Key Cyber Bill

President Joe Biden’s top national security officials are publicly split over legislation that would require critical infrastructure companies to report hacks to the government, in a remarkable display of disharmony over a bill with bipartisan support and industry backing. President Joe Biden’s top national security officials are publicly split over legislation that would require critical infrastructure companies to report hacks to the government, in a remarkable display of disharmony over a bill with bipartisan support and industry backing.

CISA Director Jen Easterly has praised the reporting mandate as a critical tool for enhancing the nation’s cyber defenses. But on Wednesday, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said the legislation would make the country “less safe” and FBI Director Christopher Wray said it had “serious flaws.”

Read more at Politico


Some Colleges Are Winding Down Surveillance Testing, Once a Key COVID-Mitigation Strategy

Last spring semester, Duke University regularly ran more than 20,000 — once more than 30,000 — coronavirus tests a week on its students, staff, and faculty. By last week, that number was roughly halved, to a little more than 12,000 tests. At its peak testing pace, Cornell University was running about 40,000 tests weekly for the on-campus community, said Gary A. Koretzky, an immunologist who is vice provost for academic integration. Now administrators are running about 6,000 a week.

Both colleges are planning to do even fewer tests in the future. Starting March 21, Duke will no longer require students who are compliant with its vaccine and booster mandate, and who have no Covid symptoms, to be tested. Cornell stopped mandating surveillance tests for the vaccinated and boosted last month.

Read more at the Chronicle of Higher Ed


Death Toll Surpasses 6 Million for the Pandemic Now in its 3rd Year

The official global death toll from COVID-19 eclipsed 6 million on Monday — underscoring that the pandemic, now entering its third year, is far from over.  The milestone, recorded by Johns Hopkins University, is the latest tragic reminder of the unrelenting nature of the pandemic even as people are shedding masks, travel is resuming and businesses are reopening around the globe.

It took the world seven months to record its first million deaths from the virus after the pandemic began in early 2020. Four months later another million people had died, and 1 million have died every three months since, until the death toll hit 5 million at the end of October. Now it has reached 6 million — more than the populations of Berlin and Brussels combined, or the entire state of Maryland.

Read more at NPR


 

Jobless Aid for Excluded Workers Gets Boost from New York Labor Union

The backing of the “Excluded No More” proposal from Laborers’ Local 79 comes as state lawmakers are calling for billions of dollars in aid for excluded workers in the state budget, which is expected to pass later this month.

Last year, state lawmakers and then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo agreed to a $2 billion pot of money for workers who did not qualify for federal pandemic assistance. Many of those workers are undocumented residents, and over the last several months officials have called for a permanent version of the excluded workers fund.

Read more at State of Politics


Tesla Gets Green Light to Start Production in Germany

After getting snarled up in German red tape, U.S. electric car pioneer Tesla at last got the final go-ahead from authorities Friday, paving the way for production to begin shortly at its “gigafactory” outside Berlin.  Officials in the eastern state of Brandenburg, where the factory sits, issued the final approval for the company’s first production site in Europe.

Brandenburg, formerly part of communist east Germany, is hoping for a job boost from the new factory and has positioned itself as a hub for the production of electric vehicles. Also on Friday, German car giant Volkswagen announced a 2 billion euro ($2.2 billion) investment in a purpose-built electric plant of its own, set to break ground at its main Wolfsburg site as soon as early 2023.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Automakers Lack Supply Chain Muscle to Meet Raging Truck Demand

Truck manufacturers continued to accept orders for new vehicles in February only at a muted rate, showing that automakers lack confidence that that their supply chains will improve in the short term despite the industry’s roaring demand to get more tractor-trailers on the road, two reports have found. In spite of the climbing numbers of orders for class 8 trucks, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are booking fleet requirements just a portion at a time in order to not overbook their production schedules and to keep backlogs at a manageable level, according to a report from transportation analyst firm FT

A lingering shortage of drivers, vehicles, and parts—especially semiconductors—have constrained freight haulers from adding the additional capacity needed to move surging inventory levels in recent months, even as retailers and brands flood seaports with newly imported goods.

Read more at Supply Chain Quarterly


 

Daily Briefing – 470

Post: Mar. 6, 2022

Invasion of Ukraine Headlines


EU, US Discuss Banning Russian Oil Imports – Brent Spikes to $139

Oil prices spiked to their highest levels since 2008 on Monday as the United States and European allies weighed a Russian oil import ban and delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets fuelled supply fears. In the first few minutes of trade Brent crude reached $139.13 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit $130.50, both benchmarks striking their highest levels since July 2008. By 1017 GMT, prices had lost some of those gains, with Brent up $6.60, or 5.6%, at $124.71 per barrel, and WTI up $6.67, or 5.8%, at $122.35.

The United States and European allies are exploring banning imports of Russian oil, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday, and the White House coordinated with key Congressional committees moving forward with their own ban.

Read more at Reuters


Commerce: U.S. Factory Orders Beat Expectations in January

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that factory orders rose 1.4% in January. Data for December was revised sharply higher to show orders gaining 0.7% instead of falling 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would rebound 0.7%. In January, there were increases in orders for machinery and transportation equipment. Orders for computers and electronic products were unchanged. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components fell.

Manufacturing is being underpinned by businesses rebuilding inventories, though tight supply chains remain a constraint. Supply bottlenecks could worsen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are producers of key materials used to manufacture semiconductors, whose scarcity around the global is hampering motor vehicle production. 

Read more at Reuters


U.S. Employment: Strong  Jobs, Mfg Up 36K, Wage Pressure Eases

February payroll rose 678K. Unemployment fell to 3.8% from 4.0%,  Average hourly earnings were unchanged, well below the consensus, 0.5%.  Job gains were concentrated in the services sector, up 549,000, with leisure and hospitality up 179,000,  Construction saw an outsized 60,00 jump, and manufacturing added 36K. Payrolls are still some 2.1 million below the pre-Covid level, and a massive 7.5 million below the level we would have expected in the absence of the pandemic.

Participation rose a tenth to 62.3%, a new post-Covid high. The trend clearly is rising, propelled – perhaps – by the ongoing effect of school/childcare reopening, and the end of enhanced/extended unemployment benefits back in September. Rundown of savings among less well-off people might also be prompting some people to return to the labor market. Participation is still well below the pre-Covid level, but the established upward trend is a relief. The zero increase for average hourly earnings surprised many analysts. The trend recently has been about 0.6% per month, and solid. The softness is uneven, with average hourly earnings declining outright in finance, utilities, mining and manufacturing, but rising sharply in retail, information services, and transportation. Most see this as a seasonal blip and expect wages to increase again in March. 

Read more at Reuters


February Manufacturing Job Gains Breakdown

Most of the growth in manufacturing employment was in durable goods industries despite losses in transportation equipment. Fabricated metal products manufacturers saw the most dramatic growth last month, adding 10,500 new workers. Gains there and in machinery, which took on 8,300 new employees, served to offset the 18,000 jobs lost in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, which made up the bulk of the approximately 20,700 jobs lost in transportation equipment.

Nondurable goods production added 16,000 new jobs, almost half in its largest section, food manufacturing. Food, beverage, and tobacco companies made up 7,200 of the jobs gained in nondurable manufacturing, followed by 4,300 in miscellaneous nondurable goods, 3,100 in paper and paper products, and 1,600 in petroleum and coal products. Estimated job losses were recorded in the chemicals (1,600 jobs) and printing sectors (about 200). Manufacturing currently employs about 12.6 million people in the United States—approximately 12,607,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Read more at IndustryWeek 


US COVID – “Sharp Decline”

The US CDC is currently reporting 78.9 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 950,112 deaths. Daily incidence continues its sharp decline, down from a record high of 807,843 new cases per day on January 15 to 56,253 on March 1. Daily mortality appears to have peaked on February 2 at 2,627 deaths per day, down to 1,674 on March 1.

The US has administered 691 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Daily vaccinations continue to decline. The number of daily vaccinations is at its lowest level since late December 2020, right after the vaccines were authorized. A total of 253.7 million individuals have received at least 1 vaccine dose, which corresponds to 76.4% of the entire US population. A total of 215.8 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 65% of the total population. 

Read more at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security


NYS Vaccine and COVID Update – Under 2% Positive Rate

Vaccine Stats as of March 6:

One Vaccine Dose 

  • 89.1% of all New Yorkers – 16,410,152 (plus 3,500 from a day earlier).
  • In the Hudson Valley 1,706,417 (plus 388).

Fully Vaccinated

  • 75.7% of all New Yorkers – 14,679,971 (plus 5,253).
  • In the Hudson Valley – 1,495,549 (plus 456). 

Boosters Given

  • All New Yorkers – 7,172,482
  • In the Hudson Valley – 853,412  

The Governor updated COVID data through March 6.  There were 12 COVID related deaths for a total reported of 69,418 

Hospitalizations:

  • Patients Currently in Hospital statewide: 1,507.
  • Patients Currently in ICU Statewide: 269

7 Day Average Positivity Rate  – Cases per 100K population

  • Statewide 1.56%    –   9.59 positive cases per 100,00 population
  • Mid-Hudson: 1.72%   –   8.58 positive cases per 100,00 population

Useful Websites:


Senate Republicans Push to End Covid-19 Emergency Declaration

Senate Republicans passed a measure backing the termination of the government’s two-year-old emergency declaration on the Covid-19 pandemic, taking advantage of several Democratic absences in the 50-50 chamber. The measure passed Thursday 48-47 along party lines, and it is unlikely that it will get a vote in the Democratic-controlled House. If it were to pass both chambers, the White House promised a veto by President Biden, saying the measure would “abruptly curtail the ability of the Administration to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic.”

The emergency, first declared in March 2020 by then-President Donald Trump, allows the administration to use the National Emergencies Act to activate special executive powers. The administration has used it to suspend the payment deadlines for student loans, close ports of entry and extend customs deadlines, among other efforts. Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who led the resolution, said repealing the declaration would “deliver a symbolic victory to our citizens that normalcy is around the corner and that limited government and our constitutional rights still reign supreme.”

Read more at the WSJ


Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Between Urban and Rural Counties 

To better understand COVID-19 vaccination disparities between urban and rural populations, CDC analyzed county-level vaccine administration data among persons aged ≥5 years who received their first dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine or a single dose of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine during December 14, 2020–January 31, 2022. COVID-19 vaccination coverage with ≥1 doses in rural areas (58.5%) was lower than that in urban counties (75.4%) overall, with similar patterns across age groups and sex. Coverage with ≥1 doses varied among states: 46 states had higher coverage in urban than in rural counties, one had higher coverage in rural than in urban counties. 

COVID-19 vaccine primary series completion was higher in urban than in rural counties. However, receipt of booster or additional doses among primary series recipients was similarly low between urban and rural counties. Compared with estimates from a previous study of vaccine coverage among adults aged ≥18 years during December 14, 2020–April 10, 2021, these urban-rural disparities among those now eligible for vaccination (aged ≥5 years) have increased more than twofold through January 2022, despite increased availability and access to COVID-19 vaccines. Addressing barriers to vaccination in rural areas is critical to achieving vaccine equity, reducing disparities, and decreasing COVID-19–related illness and death in the United States.

Read more at CDC


A Guide to Fast-Moving Russian Sanctions and Export Controls

Over the past week, the Biden Administration has announced unprecedented sanctions and export controls against Russia in response to its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. While the new sanctions act as a sword against the Russian Federation and a shield for the people of Ukraine, they also pose a minefield for US citizens engaged in international business or seeking to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in its time of need. A misplaced step could lead to civil or criminal enforcement by a variety of agencies responsible for monitoring U.S. exports and international financial transactions.

An understanding of the law in this area, and of the agencies that enforce it, can help you help Ukraine while avoiding regulatory action.

Read more at IndustryWeek


Jobless claims: 215,000 Americans Filed New Claims Last Week

Initial jobless claims improved more than expected in the latest weekly data to reach a two-month low, as the U.S. labor market recovery pressed ahead while Omicron-related disruptions retreated.

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended Feb. 26: 215,000 vs. 225,000 expected and an upwardly revised 233,000 during prior week.
  • Continuing claims, week ended Feb. 19: 1.476 million vs. 1.420 million expected and a downwardly revised 1.474 million during prior week.

The overwhelming majority of labor market data and anecdotal remarks from companies have underscored a job market that remains incredibly tight. Demand for workers has far outpaced supply, and job openings have held near record levels. This has created a situation in which employees maintain a significant amount of leverage — and have seen considerable wage increases — while the labor supply-side constraints have contributed to economy-wide inflationary pressures.

Read more at YahooNews


Hong Kong’s Covid-19 Measures Pressure Finance in Asian Financial Hub

Hong Kong’s most recent measures to combat Covid-19 are unsettling its large community of bankers and investors, many of whom were already struggling to square business and family commitments with severely curtailed travel.

Some financial professionals have asked employers whether they can relocate, while a few expatriates have decided in recent months to resign and move home. Others are considering options that could split up their families for months or more as they try to move their children into more stable schooling and away from the risk of mandatory quarantine.

Read more at the WSJ


Google Tells Employees at U.S. locations to Return to Offices in April, Twitter Flexible

Google said it will end the voluntary work-from-home period and start having employees in the Bay Area and several other U.S. locations return to the office starting the week of April 4. Google said it expects most workers to come into the office three days a week and have two days of remote work.

Twitter will reopen its offices in the middle of this month, though employees will still be allowed to work remotely, according to an email from CEO Parag Agrawal to staffers.  Twitter told employees in the early days of the pandemic two years ago that they could work remotely “forever” if they wanted to. New CEO Agrawal said he’ll still honor that policy, but he warned that “distributed working will be much, much harder” and said “there will be lots of challenges.”

Read more at CNBC


‘Shields Up’ on Cybersecurity in Wake of Ukraine Conflict

Fears of cybersecurity attacks are mounting in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. From the war itself, a number of malware variants have been created and are circulating on the internet.  In addition, with the stiff economic sanctions, Russian state-sponsored criminal organizations are seeking to accumulate more Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies using techniques such as ransomware.

In the past, these crime syndicates generally tried to avoid critical infrastructure, for fear of reprisals, but it is no longer certain if that forbearance is still being practiced or if we are entering a new phase in cybercrime.


Judge in NY Redistricting Case Declines to Halt New York’s Elections, Leaves Door Open

A judge on Thursday rejected Republicans’ requests to immediately pause this year’s New York election process. But he did float the possibility of eventually rejecting the lines that were approved by the state Legislature in early February and ordering new maps to be drawn in time for special elections in every congressional and state Senate seat in 2023.

“It is highly unlikely that the new viable map could be drawn and be in place within a few weeks or even a couple of months,” said state Supreme Court Judge Patrick McAllister in Steuben County. “I believe the more prudent course would be to allow the current election process to proceed, then if necessary, provide for new elections next year.”

Read more at Politico


Convoy Protesting COVID Mandates Begins D.C. Circuit

A large group of truck drivers and their supporters who object to Covid-19 mandates began their mobile protest in the Washington, D.C., area Sunday, embarking on a drive designed to snarl traffic and make their objections known to lawmakers.  Their plan was to drive onto the Capital Beltway, circle it twice and then return to Hagerstown, news outlets reported.

The “People’s Convoy” follows similar demonstrations by truckers in Canada upset at vaccine requirements to cross the Canadian border. The Washington Post reported that convoy organizer Brian Brase intends for protesters to travel on the beltway every day during the upcoming week until its demands are met.

Read more at Politico


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