Post: Jul. 19, 2022
Chipmakers Get Their $54 billion in CHIPS Act Government Subsidies—But it Comes With Strings Attached
The Senate backed by 64 to 34 a procedural measure setting the stage for potential votes to pass the legislation in the Senate and House of Representatives by the end of next week. The Bill authorizes about $54 billion in grants and loans for chip manufacturers, as well as a new, four-year 25% investment tax credit for chip making.
Semiconductor companies have been torn over how to perceive the …
Post: Jul. 18, 2022
NY DOL Assessing Surcharge on SUI Wages
As a result of COVID-19, the New York Department of Labor (DOL) paid more than $110 billion in unemployment and pandemic unemployment benefits between March 2020 and September 2021 depleting the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund. New York state borrowed $9.2 billion from the federal government to maintain UI and pandemic benefits while the COVID-19 programs were in effect. State law requires …
Post: Jul. 17, 2022
Empire State Manufacturing Survey – Modest Growth in July, Pessimism for the Future
Manufacturing activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to the July survey. The general business conditions index climbed twelve points to 11.1. However, firms now expect activity to decline over the next six months, a sentiment only expressed three other times in the survey’s history. The index for future business conditions plunged twenty points to -6.2. The capital spending …
Post: Jul. 13, 2022
9.1% – Inflation Rose Even More Than Expected in June, as Consumer Pressures Intensify
The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked the fastest pace for inflation going back to November 1981. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI increased 5.9%, compared with the 5.7% estimate. Core inflation peaked at 6.5% in March and has …
Post: Jul. 12, 2022
Pattern For Progress: IRS Data Show Hudson Valley Saw Net Gain from Migration for First Time in More Than a Decade
Pattern for Progress yesterday released a special report that analyzes the migration of people into the Hudson Valley, and out of the region, during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Data show that the Hudson Valley experienced a net gain from migration for the first time in more than a decade, including a net gain of 33,394 residents from the five boroughs of New York City. A total of 48,642 …
Post: Jul. 11, 2022
Schumer Making Last-Ditch Bid to Pass Reconciliation Bill this Summer
Schumer and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have made progress on proposals to lower the cost of prescription drugs, extend Medicare’s solvency and raise taxes on some high-income earners. Manchin and Schumer have worked out a proposal to impose a 3.8 percent tax on individuals earning more than $400,000 and couples earning more than $500,000 from pass-through businesses and will give …
Post: Jul. 10, 2022
Manufacturing Achieves Pre-Pandemic Employment Levels After Months of Incremental Gains
Manufacturing companies in the U.S. added 29,000 jobs last month, slightly beating the sector’s last pre-pandemic employment numbers in February 2020. Nondurable goods manufacturing companies notably added more workers than the larger durable goods sector last month. Durable goods companies, which now employ about 7.9 million people, added 11,000 jobs in July; Nondurable goods industries added …
Post: Jul. 6, 2022
JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Higher than Expected in May, Mfg Openings Fall by 136K
The number of job openings throughout the economy fell to 11.3 million at the end of May, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, data published Wednesday morning. That landed above the median estimate of 11 million openings from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It also marks the second month in a row of declines. The report reveals little improvement in matching workers …
Post: Jul. 5, 2022
U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased more than expected in May, bucking a slew of recent data showing a softening in the economy and underscoring that demand for products remains strong. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that factory orders rose 1.6% in May after advancing 0.7% in April.
In May, there were increases in orders for primary metals, machinery and transportation equipment, …
Post: Jul. 4, 2022
ISM Manufacturing PMI Slumps to 53 in June
The business activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded at a much softer pace in June than it did in May with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping to 53 from 56.1. This print came in weaker than the market expectation of 54.9. Further details of the publication showed that Employment Index declined to 47.3 from 49.6 and New Orders Index fell to 49.2 from 55.1. Finally, Prices Paid Index dropped …
Post: Jun. 29, 2022
Powell Says Fed Must Accept Higher Recession Risk to Combat Inflation
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was more concerned about the risk of failing to stamp out high inflation than about the possibility of raising interest rates too high and pushing the economy into a recession. “Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly there’s a risk,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday. “The bigger mistake to make—let’s put it that way—would be to fail …
Post: Jun. 28, 2022
NYS Primary – Hochul to Face Zeldin for Governor, Delgado Will Be Dem Lt. Gove Candidate
New Yorkers headed to the polls Tuesday to vote in the primary contests for governor, lieutenant governor and state Assembly. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Gov. Kathy Hochul handily won against a pair of challengers to earn a full term in office. On the other side of the aisle, Rep. Lee Zeldin (41%) defeated former White House staffer Andrew Giuliani ( 23%), businessman Harry Wilson …
Post: Jun. 27, 2022
Core Capital Goods Orders, Shipments Increase Strongly
New orders for U.S.-made capital goods and shipments increased solidly in May. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. These so-called core capital goods orders gained 0.3% in April. Orders were boosted by strong demand for machinery, primary metals as well as computers …
Post: Jun. 26, 2022
IMF Slashes U.S. Growth Forecast, Sees ‘Narrowing Path’ to Avoid Recession
The International Monetary Fund on Friday slashed its U.S. economic growth forecast as aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes cool demand but predicted that the United States would “narrowly” avoid a recession. In an annual assessment of U.S. economic policies, the IMF said it now expects U.S. Gross Domestic Product to grow 2.9% in 2022, less than its most recent forecast of …
Post: Jun. 22, 2022
Powell Testimony: Fed Chair Says Higher Interest Rates Could Cause a Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank’s battle against inflation could lead it to raise interest rates high enough to cause an economic downturn. “It’s certainly a possibility,” Mr. Powell said Wednesday during the first of two days of congressional hearings. “We are not trying to provoke and do not think we will need to provoke a recession, but we do think it’s …
Post: Jun. 21, 2022
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index Fell Again in May
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.4 percent in May 2022 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in April 2022. The LEI is now down 0.4 percent over the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022. “The US LEI fell again in May, fueled by tumbling stock prices, a slowdown in housing construction, and gloomier consumer expectations,” …
Post: Jun. 20, 2022
China Studying ‘Extraordinary’ Support for Manufacturers: Report
China is planning “extraordinary new policies to help downstream industrial firms that have seen their profits hit by the high cost of raw materials,” according to Shanghai Securities News. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is studying measures to enhance the structure of supply-side policies, boost consumer demand and incentivize investments in technology, the newspaper said …
Post: Jun. 19, 2022
NAM Survey: Inflation, Recession Signs Worry Manufacturing Leaders, But Optimism Remains
The National Association of Manufacturers Q2 2022 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey shows manufacturers’ significant concerns around recession, inflation, hiring and China competition legislation. The NAM conducted the survey May 17–31, 2022. Here are some key Findings:
- 59.3% of manufacturing leaders believed inflationary pressures would make a recession more likely in the next 12 months.
- Increased raw material costs topped the list of primary business challenges in the second quarter, cited by 90.1% of respondents.
- Three-quarters of manufacturers felt inflationary pressures were worse today than six months ago.
- The top sources of inflation were increased raw material prices (97.2%), freight and transportation costs (83.9%), wages and salaries (79.5%) and energy costs (55.9%), with 49.4% also citing a shortage of available workers.
- When asked about what aspects of the China competition legislation were most important for supporting manufacturing activity, 70.9% of respondents cited addressing port congestion and competition issues in shipping.
- Despite ongoing economic headwinds, manufacturers remain largely optimistic, with 82.6% of respondents maintaining a positive outlook for their company.
Read more at the NAM
War in Ukraine Headlines
U.S. Industrial Production Eased in May, Adding to Signs of Economic Slowdown
Total industrial production moved up 0.2 percent in May, Output has increased in every month of the year …
Post: Jun. 15, 2022
Fed Raises Rates By 0.75 Percentage Point, Largest Increase Since 1994
The Federal Reserve approved the largest interest rate increase since 1994 and signaled it would continue lifting rates this year at the most rapid pace in decades as it races to slow the economy and combat inflation. Officials agreed to a 0.75-percentage-point rate rise at their two-day policy meeting that concluded Wednesday, which will increase the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate to a range …
Post: Jun. 14, 2022
NFIB: Small Business Owners’ Expectations for the Future at 48-year Low
The NFIB Optimism Index fell 0.1 points in May to 93.1, marking the fifth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased four points to a net negative 54%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year-old survey. Expectations for better business conditions have deteriorated every month since January.
- Twenty-eight percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, a decrease of four points from April.
- The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased two points to a net 72% (seasonally adjusted), back to the highest reading in the 48-year-history of the survey last reached in March and 32 points higher than May 2021.
- Fifty-one percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, up four points from April.
- The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased three points from April to a net negative 15%.
- A net 46% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported raising compensation, down three points from April with a net 25% planning to raise compensation in the next three months, down two points from April but historically high.
- Thirty-nine percent of owners report that supply chain disruptions have had a significant impact on their business, up three points. Another 31% report a moderate impact and 22% report a mild impact. Only 8% of owners report no impact from the recent supply chain disruptions.
Read more at NFIB
War in Ukraine Headlines
10.8 Percent – PPI Up Again Solidly in May
The …
Post: Jun. 13, 2022
Fed Meets Today Amid Slumping Stock Market, Out-of-Control Inflation
The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting Today facing the challenge of an inflation spiral that may require it to raise interest rates to a level that markets are just beginning to take note of and do so without tanking the economy. Markets and experts had expected another 50 basis point hike by the Fed this month after a similar increase in May. But now there is talk the Fed may need to shock …
Post: Jun. 12, 2022
8.6 – US Consumer Price Inflation Rises to 41 Year High
U.S. inflation resurged in May as the consumer price index jumped 8.6% compared to 2021, the biggest increase since December 1981, according to government data released Friday. CPI jumped 1% compared to April, after the modest 0.3% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department reported, far higher than expected by analysts who were looking for inflation pressures to ebb slightly.
- The data showed gasoline jumped 4.1% in the month, with big gains in housing, airline fares and used and new vehicles.
- Energy has soared 34.6% over the past year, the fastest since September 2005, while food jumped 10.1% — the first increase of more than 10% since March 1981, the report said.
- Food and fuel prices have accelerated in recent weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent global oil and grain prices up, and American drivers are facing daily record gas prices, with the national average hitting $4.99 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA.
- Even excluding volatile food and energy components, CPI gained 0.6% compared to April and 6% in the latest 12 months, the data showed.
Read …
Post: Jun. 8, 2022
OECD Slashes Growth Outlook for This Year and Next
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development shaved off 1.5 percentage points from its December global growth outlook to 3 percent this year, it announced Wednesday, while it adjusted its 2023 estimate downward to 2.8 percent. The OECD also expects inflation to average 8.8 percent across its 38 members this year— up from 4.5 percent in December — before slowly receding in 2023.
The …
Post: Jun. 7, 2022
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in April
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in April as imports declined, suggesting that trade could contribute to economic growth this quarter for the first time in two years. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the trade deficit dropped 19.1% to $87.1 billion. Imports of goods and services fell 3.4% to $339.7 billion, while exports increased 3.5% to $252.6 billion.
A record trade deficit …
Post: Jun. 6, 2022
BLS: Labor Productivity Declines the Most Since 1947
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 7.3 percent in the first quarter of 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output decreased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 5.4 percent. This is the largest decline in quarterly productivity since the third quarter of 1947, when the measure decreased 11.7 percent. Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated …
