New York Fed Forecast

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) hosted the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP) on Friday, April 15. As has become the custom at this meeting, the FRBNY staff presented its forecast for U.S. growth, inflation, and the unemployment rate. The forecast predicts growth in 2016 to remain around 2 percent. Available data suggests that growth in the first quarter of 2016 was sluggish, but the EAP predicts that over the remainder of 2016 growth will be around 2½ percent (at an annual rate), supported by generally favorable underlying fundamentals: fairly healthy household and business balance sheets, slightly stimulative fiscal policy, and an accommodating monetary policy. Consumer spending is anticipated to grow around 2½ percent, slightly slower than in 2015, as real income growth is sustained through faster growth of compensation and low overall inflation. Unemployment is also predicted to decline. Read the full report.

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