Post: Mar. 7, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set the stage for faster-rising consumer prices, with the mayhem of war driving up manufacturing costs for food, consumer goods and machinery in places far from the battlefield. The short-term consequences have been serious. Grain markets recently hit a 14-year high in anticipation of a diminished harvest in Ukraine, which would raise costs to feed the world’s …
Post: Mar. 6, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
EU, US Discuss Banning Russian Oil Imports – Brent Spikes to $139
Oil prices spiked to their highest levels since 2008 on Monday as the United States and European allies weighed a Russian oil import ban and delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets fuelled supply fears. In the first few minutes of trade Brent crude reached $139.13 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit $130.50, both benchmarks striking their highest levels since July …
Post: Mar. 2, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
ISM Deeper Dive
U.S. manufacturing activity picked up more than expected in February as COVID-19 infections subsided, though hiring at factories slowed, contributing to keeping supply chains snarled and prices for inputs high.
- The ISM’s index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 58.6 last month from 57.6 in January.
- All of the six largest manufacturing industries – transportation equipment, machinery, computer and electronic, food, chemical, as well as petroleum and coal products reported moderate-to-strong growth.
- The forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to 61.7 last month from 57.9 in January
- Factory employment slipped to a reading of 52.9 last month from a 10-month high of 54.5.
- There were a near record 10.9 million job openings across the U.S. economy at the end of December.
- The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers dipped to a still-high reading of 75.6 from 76.1 January, pointing to sustained inflation pressures.
- The order backlog index dropped 6.4 points in January, February’s reversal suggested that global supply chains remained stressed.
Read more at Reuters
NY GOP Officially Backs Zeldin for Governor in 2022 – Primary Likely
Rep. Lee Zeldin officially won the backing of the state Republican Party at its nominating convention on Tuesday, considered by most a foregone conclusion well before the …
Post:
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
What Can You Do to Help the People of Ukraine?
There are numerous charitable organizations serving the people of Ukraine that need financial help, and many of them are included in an updated U.S. Agency for International Development resources page (link below)
- Save the Children, which is providing food, blankets and other necessities for youngsters in Ukraine
- International Committee of the Red Cross, which is providing food, water and essential items, as well as supporting health care facilities
- International humanitarian organization Care.org, where funding is going toward food, water and hygiene kits to those in Ukraine
- Domestic refugee resettlement agencies involved in refugee services in the United States and Europe, such as the International Rescue Committee and others working with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
US Agency for International Development USAID resources
Drivers of Inflation: The New York Fed DSGE Model’s Perspective
After a sharp decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rebounded in the second half of 2020 and surged …
Post: Mar. 1, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
What Can You Do to Help the People of Ukraine?
There are numerous charitable organizations serving the people of Ukraine that need financial help, and many of them are included in an updated U.S. Agency for International Development resources page (link below)
- Save the Children, which is providing food, blankets and other necessities for youngsters in Ukraine
- International Committee of the Red Cross, which is providing food, water and essential items, as well as supporting health care facilities
- International humanitarian organization Care.org, where funding is going toward food, water and hygiene kits to those in Ukraine
- Domestic refugee resettlement agencies involved in refugee services in the United States and Europe, such as the International Rescue Committee and others working with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
US Agency for International Development USAID resources
Drivers of Inflation: The New York Fed DSGE Model’s Perspective
After a sharp decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rebounded in the second half of 2020 and surged …
Post: Feb. 28, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Hits Record High, Will Weigh on Q1 GDP Growth
he U.S. trade deficit in goods widened sharply to a record high in January amid an increase in imports as businesses continued to replenish depleted inventories. Trade has been a drag on gross domestic product for six straight quarters.
The goods trade deficit jumped 7.1% to an all-time high of $107.6 billion last month. Imports of goods increased 1.7%, led by food and motor vehicles. There were …
Post: Feb. 27, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine Headlines
CDC Issues Long-Awaited New Guidance on When to Wear Masks – All Hudson Valley Counties “Green”
The guidance lays out a system that designates individual counties as being at either low, medium, or high risk from Covid-19. Roughly 62.6% of counties — home to 71.7% of Americans — fall into the low- and medium-risk categories. The designations will be based on key metrics at a county level, using data counties provide to the CDC on an ongoing basis. Those include the rate of Covid cases …
Post: Feb. 23, 2022
Russia Invades Ukraine, Roils Markets, Draws Condemnation
Missiles and airstrikes hit more than a dozen cities across Ukraine, minutes after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation. President Biden called the move unprovoked and unjustified, pledging further action against Russia.
IHS: Manufacturing, Service Activity Increased in February
Data firm IHS Markit said on Tuesday its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rebounded to a reading …
Post: Feb. 22, 2022
Oil Prices Approach $100 a Barrel on Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Oil, natural-gas and agricultural prices rose as escalating tensions over the future of Ukraine threatened to disrupt flows of natural resources from Eastern Europe to world markets. Futures for Brent crude, the benchmark in international energy markets, added 1.8% to reach $97.10 a barrel and earlier climbed to $99.50 a barrel, their highest level since 2014. In Europe, natural-gas prices rose …
Post: Feb. 21, 2022
Congress Races to Clinch Government Funding Deal
Congressional negotiators are moving quickly to try to finalize work on a sprawling package to fund the government through the remainder of the fiscal year, though sticking points remain. Lawmakers have roughly three weeks to finish crafting — and ideally pass — a bill to fund the government through Sept. 30, after advancing the latest stopgap last week.
Until just weeks ago, negotiators struggled …
Post:
Examining Manufacturing’s Workforce Data
Manufacturers should take note of key workforce data points including the rising median age of workers, the above-average quit rate during the pandemic and how the US stacks up against other developed economies in using industrial robots, writes Stephen Gold, president and CEO of Manufacturers Alliance.
“This is part of the challenge we face: with 2.5 million Boomers preparing to drop out of …
Post: Feb. 17, 2022
Fala Technologies, a Kingston-based supply chain and contract manufacturing provider, has recently had two apprentices complete the Manufacturing Intermediary Apprenticeship Program (MIAP). The apprentices, Jonah Bauer and Norm Imperati, have worked closely with Fala president, Frank Falatyn, to successfully complete the program. Both have have seized the opportunity to further their careers at Fala.
Imperati completed the toolmaker trade, which Falatyn considers the most rigorous. Imperati received his Bachelor’s in Mechanical Engineering from Clarkson University before graduating in 2015. He started at Fala in a project engineering role for a couple years; at the time, the apprenticeship program did not exist. In 2017, when the program became available, Imperati agreed to begin his apprenticeship. …
Post: Feb. 16, 2022
NY Fed Survey: Omicron Wave Stalled Growth and Led to High Absenteeism in the Region
The New York Fed’s regional business surveys indicate that economic growth stalled in early 2022 as manufacturing and service-sector firms continued to struggle to find workers. Moreover, employee absenteeism was reported to be nearly three times its normal level.
- Survey participants were asked about supply disruptions and delays. Insofar as recent trends go, slightly over half of manufacturers report that disruptions have worsened in the past month.
- Looking to the month ahead, businesses foresee further worsening in supply chain issues. Among manufacturers, pessimists outnumber optimists by a margin of 35 to 16 percent.
- 85 percent of manufacturers report currently having trouble obtaining needed supplies.
- Asked about staffing issues— In the manufacturing survey, the median respondent reported that job openings represented about 5 percent of their firm’s total employment. This question has been included in these surveys at the beginning of the year for more than eight years now, and this proportion had never exceeded 3 percent for manufacturers.
- More than three in five manufacturers characterized absenteeism as unusually high.
- When asked specifically what percentage of staff had at least one day of unscheduled absence this January, and what the comparable percentage was in a typical (pre-pandemic) January, the average incidence among both manufacturers and service firms was reported to be roughly 12 percent last month versus about 5 percent in a typical January.
- When asked what actions firms were taking to mitigate its effects, businesses in manufacturing and distribution increased the hours of those who were present at work, as well as made more use of outside contractors or temporary workers.
Read the Survey Results at the NY Fed
Fed Minutes – A Bit Less Hawkish Than Expected
With no explicit discussion of a date to begin balance sheet runoff, or of the idea of a 50 …
Post: Feb. 15, 2022
Steady On – Empire Manufacturing Survey
Manufacturing activity was little changed in New York State for a second consecutive month according to the February survey. Firms were generally optimistic about the six-month outlook, but optimism waned.
- The general business conditions index edged up four points to 3.1.
- The new orders index came in at 1.4.
- The shipments index was 2.9, signaling little change in orders and shipments over the month.
- The unfilled orders index came in at 14.4.
- The delivery times index was unchanged at 21.6, as delivery times continued to lengthen
- The index for number of employees climbed to 23.1, indicating solid gains in employment.
- The average workweek index held steady at 10.9.
- The prices paid index was little changed at 76.6.
- The prices received index rose a steep seventeen points to a record high of 54.1
The index for future business conditions fell seven points to 28.2, its lowest level since the early stages of the pandemic. Longer delivery times, higher prices, and increases in employment …
Post: Feb. 14, 2022
What Conflict in Ukraine Would Mean for Oil, Gas and Food
The U.S. has warned that Russia could attack its neighbor as early as this week, even though Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans to invade. Markets have been on edge for weeks, and an actual conflict — or sanctions on Russia — could drive energy and food prices even higher, and push Europe into a major supply crisis.
Crude oil is approaching $100 a barrel and gas in Europe surged on …
Post: Feb. 13, 2022
Member Mask Survey Results
Following Governor Hochul’s lifting of the mask mandate for public buildings The Council of Industry conducted a quick survey of how members might alter their mask policies going forward (Members are aware that the HERO Act remains in effect) In the next month 32% of respondents will either continue to mandate masks for all employees or for all employees unable to maintain social distancing. …
Post: Feb. 9, 2022
Hochul Lifting Mask Mandate For Businesses; Keeping In Schools For Now
New York State’s indoor mask mandate for businesses is set to expire Thursday, but Gov. Kathy Hochul says it will remain in place for schools. The change marks a promising shift in the fight against the pandemic. While the business mandate may be coming to an end, the governor said she’s not ready to do the same for schools. State health officials will continue to monitor the situation around …
Post: Feb. 8, 2022
Hochul Could End Masks for Businesses, But Not Schools
The rule requiring masks or vaccination proof at New York businesses is expected to expire Thursday and not be renewed, according to the Times Union in Albany. But the regulation being used to enforce the mask mandate in schools is expected to remain in place beyond February, the paper said.
Covid cases and hospitalizations have been dropping rapidly in New York since peaking in early January. …
Post: Feb. 7, 2022
Manufacturing Labor Productivity Falls while Factory Orders Decline
Manufacturing labor productivity continued its ongoing slide during the fourth quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing labor productivity fell 0.8% in the fourth quarter at the annual rate, extending the 2.6% decline in the third quarter.
- Output rose 4.8% in the fourth quarter, continuing to reflect solid growth in demand for goods despite ongoing challenges with supply chain and workforce issues.
- However, real hourly compensation decreased 4.5% in the fourth quarter, pulling the headline figure lower.
- Unit labor costs for manufacturers increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter.
- For the year, manufacturing labor productivity increased 3.1%, the strongest annual increase since 2010, another year with strong rebounds in activity.
- Labor productivity for durable goods increased 0.8% in the fourth quarter, with output rising 3.9% but with real hourly compensation declining 3.8%.
- At the same time, labor productivity for nondurable goods decreased 3.7% in the fourth quarter, with output jumping 5.7%
- but with real hourly compensation dropping 5.1%. Unit labor costs for durable and nondurable goods rose 3.3% and 6.7% in the fourth quarter, respectively.”
Read more at the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Statewide COVID Infection Rate lowest Since Omicron Named Variant of Concern
New York state’s COVID-19 infection rate is now at 3.5%, the lowest since omicron …
Post:
Omicron “Shromicron” U.S. Jobs Surged by 467,000 in January
U.S. employers hired at a rapid pace late last year and in January, bolstering the economy in the face of the Omicron wave of Covid-19 and staffing shortages. The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said Friday. Job growth in November and December combined was about 700,000 higher than previously reported. Overall, the robust job gains this winter signal that hiring …
Post: Feb. 2, 2022
More from the JOLTs Report – Manufacturing Job Opening, Quits Inch Higher
NMA Chief Economist Chad Moutray reports: There were 856,000 manufacturing job openings in December, inching up from 853,000 in November but down from a record 955,000 in October, More importantly, it was the ninth straight month with openings that have exceeded 800,000, averaging 883,000 over that time frame…. Overall, job postings remain well above pre-pandemic levels, as companies ramp up activity …
Post: Feb. 1, 2022
Job Openings Totaled Nearly 11 Million in December, 4.6 Million Above the Total Number of Unemployed
Job openings totaled nearly 11 million in December while the Great Resignation cooled off, according to Labor Department data Tuesday. Vacancies rose to 10.92 million, well above the FactSet estimate for 10.28 million and an increase of 1.4% from November. The rate of job openings as a share of the labor force was unchanged at 6.8%. December’s numbers further pointed to how close the economy is …
Post: Jan. 31, 2022
U.S. Wages, Benefits Rose at Two-Decade High as Inflation Picked Up
The U.S. employment-cost index—a quarterly measure of wages and benefits paid by employers—showed that costs continued to rise at the highest rate in two decades. The fourth-quarter gain, compared with a year ago, was 4% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said Friday. However, the figures offered a sign that labor-cost increases could be easing, with the Labor Department …
Post: Jan. 30, 2022
Omicron “Shromicron” – U.S. Economy Grows as Fourth-Quarter GDP Shows Strongest Year in Decades
The U.S. economy grew rapidly in the fourth quarter of last year, advancing to a 6.9% annual rate, capping the strongest year of growth in nearly four decades as the country rebounded quickly from the pandemic-induced recession. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services, in the fourth quarter accelerated from the third quarter’s growth of 2.3%, adjusted for inflation, …
Post: Jan. 26, 2022
Federal Reserve Tees Up March Interest-Rate Increase
The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady on Wednesday and signaled intentions to raise them in mid-March. “It will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal-funds rate,” the Fed said in its post-meeting statement. They also approved one final round of asset purchases, which will bring that stimulus program to a conclusion by March and continued deliberations …
